I watch the Gold continuous futures contract, which as of now is the December 2023 contract. I'll hopefully be able to go in further detail later but I caught a nice buy in GLD $178.50 9/1 puts @ .82, they're already up over 30%. I'll see it how they behave b/w now & close before deciding to hold o/n, always super risky in weekly options.
/GC - thank goodness I'm not losing my mind. I was correct on the 200 ema. The problem was that I am watching /GC on my desktop and I have /GCZ23 on my other devices. I like the /GC charts better, but for some reason can't get them on the Apple devices. I'll have to try and figure that out. Since I'm just using it for a reference, it doesn't impact my trading, but I should probably post my charts here if we are discussing gold. Do you have a preference on which one to watch?
The inverse relationship often does not play out in the after hours market. I don’t think there is enough volume. They are not 100% correlated, but in the bigger picture they are inverse. I would never rely on just the inverse relationship, but I find it is reliable in tops and bottoms when the market is moving at a faster pace. It is just a tool to keep in your arsenal.
Dollar 500 Tick:
The 8/25 $104.220 bearish RAMBO low downside break was a sell signal but it's suspect because it was immediately followed by 4 consecutive retail sell (yellow down candles), a hammer @ the 30 ema (red line), then a bounce that now has the dollar over all key emas (10 to 200) & vwap.
Both the dollar & gold are up now, part of what makes relying on their normally strong inverse relationship tricky.
I need to change the color on my charts. I have one color on my phone for the 100 and a different one on my desktop! Anyway, it was the 100 not the 200 ema on the 4 hr chart! I didn’t think I needed to post the chart, but looks like I did. Sorry about that.
I think I’ll stick with the classic view until they get their issues resolved.
I couldn't find the preview button either. Thanks for confirming you don't see it either because I thought I might have missed it.
I think gold is done and heading back down for several reasons. My 4 hour chart signaled it was ready to go down (5 ema crossed below the 9 ema) on Friday. Price was not able to get above the 200 ema (on 4 hour) either and it gave it a good go of it for two days. The icing on the cake is the dollar though. It looks like it has found support above the downward trendline.
P.S. I just switched to classic view after rewriting this post three times in new version. Can't go grab the Image Gallery when writing a post. Can't preview the post when done, at least I didn't see a button for it.
Gold's at a critical hold or fold level on the daily:
A break above the $1948.20 8/14 bullish RAMBO (yellow candles with "R" below) quintet high is a long signal while failure to break and build over it confirms a lower high that keeps the short-term downtrend since May, intact.
In my opinion the latter is more likely: the pop last week after gold was down for 2 weeks straight is likely to be a head fake. On the 250 tick, Friday afternoon there were 6 bearish RAMBOs followed by pro (white candles) activity near the daily highs, an unconfirmed short set up, that confirms when the $1937.30 low of the lowest of the six bearish RAMBOs breaks to the downside. Also of note, as both retail (6 bearish RAMBOs) & pros were active, their activity triggered 3 bearish divergence patterns (3 small yellow dots @ the bottom of the chart).
I just sent you an e-mail.
Have a great one! See you later :)
I'm heading out. Decided not to put a stop under my GDXD. I think this is a selloff day for gold. I would be surprised to see it bounce at this point. I have 1959 marked as the next support area. Good luck.
Indicators: I decided to get rid of all my indicators on my 233 tick charts except for the Ultimate Volume. When my head hurts, I find it difficult to make decisions and I think it is because I have too much information that is not needed. I think I need to just focus on the price action. Barry put volume and size of transaction data into his programming and its right there with price. It gives you such great information. I'm going to see how paring down information on my charts works for me. I have still not ruled out getting his program.
No worries! B/W gold & JFIN. What a morning so far!
Here I go again being dyslexic. My poor little brain has been hurting lately. I obviously meant supports on the charts. My mind translates it to "it is going to show resistance at those levels" versus the correct terminology. Sorry.
Thanks for the chart! I am back in GDXD and hoping it holds today. The monthly chart has a resistance line at 1969.50 which we will have to overcome and then it is down from there. After that, the weekly 20 ema is 1946, but Mobi has resistance at 1941. I don't know his programming, but I do trust the support and resistance lines it draws.
I'm so sorry you are going though this. That sucks! I hope the jabs do the trick.
Thanks so much! I’m getting jabbed with a bunch of needles tomorrow. Hopefully, that will get it to stop. BTW, they called and rescheduled it for earlier so, now I’m going to miss the later 1/2 of the trading day, but I’ll be around for the open and the first 1/2.
Sorry to read that. I hope you feel much better ASAP.
Thank you for posting these. I will look at them this weekend. I’m not sure I can trade them at this time, but I am curious. I need to learn more about trading puts and calls. Right now, I’m still dealing with my 24/7 headache so, I’m limited in what I can do.
BOIL @ $2.34
EDIT $10 6/16 C @ .30 - I like the potential
GLD $183.50 P @ .68 - Very speculative but if gold flushes tomorrow this will explode
GLD $183 6/16 P @ $1.63 avg. - I love the potential of this one
JFIN $7.50 7/21 C @ .15. This is already a big winner, it's already doubled since I bought it a couple days ago; decent fundamentals and sweet techncials. I plan on adding in dips
OLED $150 6/16 C @ $3.30 - I like
WW $7.50 6/16 - dead $
VKTX $25 7/21 - I like this one a lot
YEXT $10 6/16 C @ .25 & $10 7/21 C @ .40 My second least favorite, I may cut it tomorrow
YOU $25 7/21 C @ $1.60 - I like the company & business model. Price action has been trashy though which is why I bought the time, options that expire in 7 weeks, instead of the near term options I usually buy
BIG is on my shopping list. It's a piece of trash, pure technical play. I think a good entry in calls will be handsomely rewarded. I'm eyeing the $7.50 6/16 and/or 7/21 calls
Notice how your red support is just above the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The 38.2% is also close to the 100 ema (green line.) I assume price may tag the 38.2% @ $103.39. 100 ema is just a tad bit above it and is the green line on my chart
50% is the $102.94 and the 200 ema (golden triangle line.) That would take it back to the gray box which is the very long term support level from way back. Interesting that the math lines up with the gray box. There are no coincidences as you always say.