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What do you think?
Remember when Teffy advertised no dilution, no VFIN:)?
Check out who has been on the ask all morning? VFIN.
Most likely dilution going on all morning.
Who are you buying through to get around DTC chill?
DTC chill cannot purchase.
This market has made me change my decision .
Will now hold through end of year.
Before or after bell?
Got in this some time ago with a large position at around $.95.
Will sell by May 15 or $1.25 whichever comes first.
I bet on $1.25.
When are earnings? I saw the 19th so far. Pre-market, after market?
I did not really believe AKS would go down to $5.99, I actually added more on Friday, but things are looking good.
AKS was the one who asked for the rate determinations on imported electrical steel to be moved from January to March and Department of Commerce agreed.
Contracts that will renew are going to be at higher steel prices.
It is rumored with the higher market AKS will post a lower pension expense in first quarter financials.
There are a few more catalysts I come across daily.
This is my largest position at moment.
I expect to sell all at end of May timeframe. I was hoping for 15, but will be happy at 10 by then.
If you are so sure why not buy calls? You get zero if it stays below 1 or 8 to 1 on your money if it goes to 1.40. Call volume is large on it now. In my opinion we see over 1 but not sure by how much. Pumping with artificial exact price targets, like 1.40 by tomorrow i am sure of it, is never good.
If you are so sure why not buy calls? You get zero if it stays below 1 or 8 to 1 on your money if it goes to 1.40. Call volume is large on it now. In my opinion we see over 1 but not sure by how much. Pumping with artificial exact price targets, like 1.40 by tomorrow i am sure of it, is never good.
If you are so sure why not buy calls? You get zero if it stays below 1 or 8 to 1 on your money if it goes to 1.40. Call volume is large on it now. In my opinion we see over 1 but not sure by how much. Pumping with artificial exact price targets, like 1.40 by tomorrow i am sure of it, is never good.
Pps dropped due to market, high rsi, no new catalysts coming out, some analysts undercutting x's projected earnings to a larger than last year loss and seeking alpha and iknowfirst articles. Iknowfirst seems to be a popular logarythmic predictor. They rated x a sell for the next 3—6 months but a buy 1 year out. My play, your other steel play, they rated a buy all the way through. My hope is we take x above resistance at 32 on or after earnings. 32 area has a lot of sellers.
Aks around $7.41 right now. Part because of jpm and c earnings pulling up market. Beginning of uptrend again? Should wait to quarterly report at month end. Rsi and macd now look good to support another uptrend in my opinion.
Anyone have news on interim ruling if there will be a tarriff on steel coming within us ? Last Friday interim ruling was due to come out.
I am not sure but talk on other boards suggests around noon est.
I am not sure but talk on other boards suggests around noon est.
It is already coming off low. Since it went up 50% yesterday and had a rsi in the 80s it was a profit selloff. The conference today will make or break this. A highly succesfull conference will do wonders. Some rating agencies have a price target as high as $2 which is not unreasonable. Long term holders if everything works correctly have a small chance of seeing earlier highs (much more than $10 per share) but that is a large risk.
http://www.streetinsider.com/rating_history.php?q=X
X upgraded this am to outperform by bmo capital. Price target 37$. Yesterdays news also read that the us is pressuring china to drop tarrifs on electrical steel in accordance with a 2010 world trade organization order. This is expected to increase sales by about 250 million. X and Aks have been poor performers last few weeks . My expectations are higher. Any news on the us tarrifs imposed ? A ruling was supposed to come out last Friday, the preliminary, but I found nothing.
http://www.streetinsider.com/rating_history.php?q=X
X upgraded this am to outperform by bmo capital. Price target 37$. Yesterdays news also read that the us is pressuring china to drop tarrifs on electrical steel in accordance with a 2010 world trade organization order. This is expected to increase sales by about 250 million. X and Aks have been poor performers last few weeks . My expectations are higher. Any news on the us tarrifs imposed ? A ruling was supposed to come out last Friday, the preliminary, but I found nothing.
I got in at .93 Have not done a day trade in a bit. Looking to see how this performs.
Bought in large position at open. Worst case scenario looks good for a day trade.
Mark mine as well.
I believe it is extremely unlikely to see a retracement to the low $6's area soon. Here are some of the catalysts to prevent that and make this go higher: report came out with industry orders and it was positive, later on this week X is expected to report its 4th quarter income (and the company PR'ed it may be as high as 40% higher than analyst estimates), MT yesterday announced it will reopen by April a closed steel plant in the US to increase capacity for industrial use (which company would be crazy to do that if profit was not on the line), the preliminary results of the potential trade tariff (and further increase in prices of steel ) are due to come out Friday and an increase is expected by many, the report by AKS itself is due end of month, ZACKS upgraded AKS to strong buy this morning, even technical make sense now (RSI was strong overbought in the mid 80's and now in the low to mid 60's).
Congrats on mj detearing.
Some are predicting eventually a $55-$60 price for this. X is not my favorite for a steel play right now but it will likely deliver solid gains by 1/1/2015.
If nothing else and you are afraid of downside and somewhat risk adverse buy 1000 shares of X. Cost you $30,000. Sell covered calls for 1000 shares for January 2015 nets you $4500 right now. A 15% return for a year on a fairly safe investment and you have to do nothing but hold it 365 days? Not bad in my opinion.
This is combined for HOV and BZH and explained in fairly simple terms for everyone here but with my opinion added.
How do home builders work? They buy land up to years in advance, they build houses in communities, they advertise and sell those houses. From the time they buy the land until the house is sold and money is in their account the homebuilders take out loans for the value they put into the homes. Homebuilding works great in a rising economy especially if you couple it with increasing housing prices. Imagine this. You are a homebuilder, you project 2 years out the $150 K investment per home will gross you a $200K home sale. Prices for homes go up 20% and that $200K gross becomes $240K gross. Multiply that by your homes and that is a lot of profit.
What happened a few years ago? With the housing crash not only did the prices of housing go down but oversupply happened due to foreclosed homes. Homebuilders got hit heavily. Imagine it costs you $150K to build that same house but the economy tanks and that $200K projected for a new home becomes just $160K. If you add to that foreclosed homes that were bought at $200K 2 years ago and now at just 2 years old sell at "firesale" prices of $130-$140K and you have a recipe for disaster as a homebuilder. You either choose to wait it out and pay interest or lower your new homes to compete with these almost brand new homes by offering sales incentives up to and including selling at a small loss just to get rid of inventory. HOV stock, on the luxury end of the market, almost went bankrupt from what I saw a few years back.
What is going on right now? Home prices are rebounding. Some high growth areas have seen 15% or more home appreciation per year recently. Foreclosed home inventories are drying up. Mortgage rates are relatively low still. Unemployment is going down. People want to buy and the overall sales for the economy seem to be going up. Great recipe for homebuilders? Short term I would agree 100%.
One of the best indicators of preprofitability is purchases of land as you need land first to get to the final sale of the home process. HOV did a large deal with Blackstone and bought land on credit awaiting expansion. Short term 3-5 months HOV will see much higher appreciation than BZH in my opinion. Especially if you couple it with the fact that HOV at the luxury end has a presence in those markets that have more luxury homes and also are some of the highest housing increase percentages in housing costs lately showing rebounds. Beazer is looking to expand into those same markets and has a more long term 1-3 years price increase trend. HOV's greatest weakness is it's very high leverage. If the economy turns again and/or housing price increases cool down a bit in these markets HOV will be in for a rough ride. Some estimates have HOV is already projecting more than 10% /year increases in the final selling prices of the homes it's just buying the land for now and that is why it paints a pretty picture going forward. People will buy you up as a homebuilder when you paint them a good picture down the road in 2 years and show them the good faith by "sticking your neck out" and making the large land purchases now. With increases in mortgage rates and other risk factors will HOV deliver by 2016? My bet is , something will come up, something bad with a higher than 50% probability. Short term I see HOV getting higher faster than BZH my May.
BZH from the news I see is looking to expand into some of these growing markets HOV has but is slower on making additional investments in new land. It is waiting out the market instead of being a market leader/early adopter of trends like HOV. Long term I see them having fewer risks than HOV even if economy turns worse again but a slower growth both short term and long term (if economy stays good).
With the rising mortgage rates, past May/June timeframe it is unknown where housing will go. If I was long term, if the economy stayed relatively stable and mortgage rates did not go to say 7% 30 yr by September I would consider holding on to BZH for 1-2 yrs and reevaluating monthly on HOV.
I could have listed articles but I thought this common sense explanation was a little better understood by any investor.
Your thoughts detearing?
Anti dumping investigation.
The anti subisdy investigation is due on 1/10. Anti dumping will finish by March.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2013/11/09/2003576437
A positive anti subsidy investigation wousd do very good things for the stock price. The expectations so far are positive.
Why does this matter for those unfamiliar with steel ? Countries like china or taiwan receive production subsidies larger than the us gives to us steel companies. In a down economy with steel margins very low government subsidy allows you to produce below cost of a non subsidized company. If you then sell that steel in the non subsidized companys home country you are dumping your excess inventory and putting them out of business by forcng them to sell below cost. In the 1980s for example Romania was famous for steel dumping into the US.
Lets hope for a positive outcome and a great pps.
I am in bzh but small with 200 shares as well as hov. You have 10000+ likely. I looked into this and hov. My pt at least 40 for bzh by 06/01 and 8 for hov minimum by 03/30. I can post my dd if you would like just like my previous posting we talked about tonight. Quite nice but I'm not as satisfied to invest more here than there.
I am 29 and work as a CFO doing budget analysis 5 days a week. While some of your stocks offer higher returns they offer high risk. Think your few that went up 20% today. Steel helps you sleep at night. 6 months from now I am more than 95% sure this will be up and that helps me sleep at night. That and I did hours and hours of dd. Let me ask if you invest what do you take: 10%—20% today high momentum can drop anytime or go higher make your heart race stock, stock that 50—50 % may drop 80% may rise 5 times in 6 months or c stock that will most likely rise and may even double but unlikely to drop more than 10—15%? I view AKS as option c and a mover between now and june. If jan 29 turns out good and we at least stay in the low 8'$ and not close lower we are golden imho.
I think I told you I like your plays. Some , more than others.
The company is due to report quarter earnings on the 29th and "rumors" on major boards as well as the sentiment in the air have it that the earnings and the conference call will be better than anticipated. The F-150 aluminum that many on message boards online explain as to why the AKS price will likely fall again to $3 by summer and/or AKS will go bankrupt is only a small part of AKS's business. It is highly probable after earnings that upgrades from agencies (including Goldman Sachs currently with a price target of $6) will come out. The X upgrade I posted earlier moved the price in one day initially by more than 5%. PT for X is now more than 20% above closing price.
AKS was one of the producers with the highest costs due to legacy costs such as pensions. They are continually negotiating with unions to reduce some of those costs and actively vertically integrating to own the entire steel process process. They will not beat SID on gross margin but they do not have the debt of SID and have much better contracts plus no international risk and a much more beaten down stock from its all time highs.
AKS has some decent contracts in place which are fixed contracts. It is one of the highest quality producers and has won numerous awards over the years. If you go on the company's investors relation page they list one of them, the chrysler sheet metal award.
Lots of steel plants from India to the US have had issues in this past quarter up to and including temporary closure. Think the recent explosion over at X. Who can fill in some supply ? AKS .
To top it off you have China who since August has actively been reducing capacity. China is halting approvals of new constructions of steel plants, some old plants are being dismantled and we have imports protection.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-08/17/c_132638486.htm
http://english.cri.cn/7146/2013/11/21/2702s799806.htm
We have the construction especially in nonresidential ramping up which will ramp up even more toward summer time.
We have a heavily shorted stock with even more shorts added in last few days. Everyone has been "screaming" on message boards, short AKS, RSI of 80+, oppurtunity of a lifetime, will go down to $5-$6, seekingalpha is right they need a major correction, etc.
There is at least anywhere between 30-35 million shares shorted right now and many more were added to short today. With oustanding shares of less than 140 million and almost 45% institutional L/T ownership how will that short covering look like. Rumors have it that those shorts bought January calls at $9 to give themselves some more time to cover and the price to go down after and will not cover in the meantime. Once those calls expire and the price does not drop what will happen I wonder?
There are rumors that AKS will improve its margins by summer time on its upper end steel products yet again.
Overall this looks more like a fundamentals play instead of a chart play with RSI or star patterns. I looked at all your plays and this is the one that got me the most interested. My goal/hope is we see as you predicted over $15 by 03/30/2014. This is important to me on a personal level too, if it does hit $15+ at least by summer if not 03/30 I will very likely be getting married :). Long story.
What are your thoughts (relating to the stock)?
With x upgrade by jan 30th a aks upgrade will likely follow.
Still believe in $20 by march 30? Long 8200.
Been gone a long time :). I see the board has not changed much. Dav still around?
Will be getting back here shortly on a every other day basis.
Currently holding several positions, JCP stock, ARIA calls for Dec 21st $4 contracts (anyone on the board play ARIA? if so, thoughts?), SNTA, NBG, IRE.
Anyone have any ideas regarding where we might be heading share price wise ? From what I read so far 100 share price is possible within 5 years if economy recovers in Europe.
To be very conservative it is almost 100% likely we reach 7 by January. Most of th call volume and the warrants will tell you this. What happens afterwards is the big picture. I upped my exposure to about 2500$ currently in this stock. Personally I plan on leaving it in untill at least next Christmas. Long term if the Greeks recover as planned this would be a fantastic play. The Greek stocks are where we were back in 08'. If you wanted to choose an auto manufacturer back in 08 and put half in general motors half in Ford you would 4 times your money now. F was at 2 in 08 now at 17. Bank of America. Pull up its 08 price:). Was it possible it may go bankrupt? Maybe. Did it ? No. How much did investors make who risked on it? A lot. I am currently in fnma and this along with a few other plays.
To be very conservative it is almost 100% likely we reach 7 by January. Most of th call volume and the warrants will tell you this. What happens afterwards is the big picture. I upped my exposure to about 2500$ currently in this stock. Personally I plan on leaving it in untill at least next Christmas. Long term if the Greeks recover as planned this would be a fantastic play.
Some people claim this was a paper profit last quarter. Some claim it will go bankrupt soon. If you are afraid of bankruptcy hedge and put half on alpha bank.
In my opinion greek stocks are where we were back in 08 when everyone said every company is going bankrupt economy stinks stocks tanked. If you wanted to choose an auto manufacturer back in 08 and were afraid of bankruptcy and put half in general motors half in Ford you would 4 times your money now. General motors common were wiped out. Ford was at 2 in 08 now at 17.
Bank of America. Pull up its 08 price:). Was it possible it may go bankrupt? Maybe. Did it ? No. How much did investors make who risked on it? A lot. I am currently in fnma and this along with a few other plays.
Got the family involved in it.
True. I can however say I got my family involved.
I went long small position here. Plan to hold for about 2 years.
AKS doing quite poorly right now but the outlook in the future for the US steel industry is not bad. Fairly low raw material prices are locked in, construction is expected to be ramping up again next year and other good news is expected to follow.
Will this go to $70 detearing again? Don't think so.
Will it be above $10 2 years from now ? Quite likely :).
Hope you don't mind me piggybacking my investing off of some of your plays.
I put in $500 as a lotto on this on 100 shares.
Plan on leaving it in for at least 2 years.
Price by 2015 should be well above $10/shr unless the bank does not survive (unlikely).
I put in $500 as a lotto on this on 100 shares.
Plan on leaving it in for at least 2 years.
Price by 2015 should be well above $10/shr unless the bank does not survive (unlikely).
add me.