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Back to sell yet, Lisa? Weird day today. Folks caught this moring....
Maybe the volume is so light Lisa, your IT buy caused the jolt!
Happy New Year everyone!
Probably means they're not sure which strategy to follow! I was reading somebody somewhere, who advocates following no more than about 2-3 indicators, and focus on the methodology and approach more than the timing model. In otherwords, when to take profits and losses, as being most important of all.
Pretty philosophical, no?
What are your thoughts, Lisa, on when to take profits or book losses?
The model is teaching me we're not playing horseshoes here.
And that's a good thing. I'm really bad at horseshoes.
Hangovers? LOL. Well, I'm watching the financial TV and everybody is starting their "best of 2003" and "predictions for 2004." I'd like them to go to last year's predictions and see how many of them came true.
I bet not many!
SMH seems stuck in crazy glue.
Everyone here have a Merry Christmas and a great holiday!
Lisa, can I go down to my local nursery and buy a Decision Tree? Are those over near the Dwarf Citrus or closer to the Japanese Maples?
(Too bad it's not that easy.)
If I may ask a question on exit strategies for your long positions... Do you find it better to sell immediately once you have a sell signal, or do you use a trailing stop and let it run as far as it wants?
Thanks, Lisa. Enjoying the discussion, as always.
Isn't Microsoft spending energy trying to get their software in micro devices? Phones, PDAs, etc? Perhaps they're realizing that the upgrade cycle in PCs is slowing, but just getting started in micro devices.
I think Sun is in trouble. I wonder if they're going to be around in 10 years.
AT
aka, the free loader ;)
WLD, please keep your arguments and debates off of Lisa's board. It is getting too cluttered up. Consider starting your own board. I'm sure many would like to hear more of what you have to say, just somewhere where it is more "on topic."
Thanks in advance,
AT
Lisa, thanks for posting your daily thoughts. Enjoyed looking at the ROC and OBV chart you posted, something I haven't looked at much.
That 50dma has me a bit worried. Like running into a stone wall. Hope options week can give us enough juice to bust through.
I always have a "plan." At a high level, it pretty much says "Make a ton of money." It gets a little trickier drilling down to the details, tho..
:)
Bonds getting crushed. Did somebody say that long-term treasury funds are down 20% with the latest move up? I read that in San Jose, every 1% move up in interest rates mean house prices fall 14% based on the ability of average homeowners to make mortgage payments.
Yawn. I could hardly even watch. Although some pretty big swings.
Larry, this is what I was referring to when I mentioned "he gets a lot of calls on many stocks on Moneytalk." I recall many folks calling in, and Bob referring to "the 4% rule." But that in a well-diversified company, one could go above that rule by a little, especially if there are tax consequences. I think GE was one of those stocks, but in my book that hardly constitutes a recommendation for 5 million listeners to go put up to 10% of their equity portfolio in GE at the market open first thing monday morning.
Y'know?
Yes Larry, he reduced MSFT from 4% at cost, to 4% net. I believe late 1999. Maybe somebody has the actual date.
Larry, I believe he says something like "We don't recommend individual stocks on the program" almost every weekend that the show is on. (Perhaps David has more accurate verbage on that.)
Larry, I think it's fair to include TEFQX in your list, because there was some commentary in the newsletter directed at aggressive investors. Even though TEFQX was never included in any of the recommended portfolios.
Regarding AWE, he gets calls regarding many stocks. And he's stated many times that he doesn't recommend individual stocks on Moneytalk. So I don't see how any commentary can be considered a buy or sell on an individual stock; because, that's not the intention.
Thanks for zappin' the personal attack. Nice to see more boards out there that discourage this sort of activity.
What's with the sudden focus on the Brinker comments on CA bonds? Going a little off topic here, but do folks think CA is going bankrupt? Much of the revenue shortfall has been the result of the cut in the Vehicle License Fees, which are to be restored in October. The stock market crash has impacted capital gains taxes, and the market is up. Housing prices are up, and real estate activity is hot and heavy, increasing local property taxes.
I think if Brinker's right and we're in a cyclical bull market, CA's revenues will surprise to the upside in the coming months and year or two. So, JMHO, but now you can get a few extra ticks on your CA bonds.
OK, don't want to clutter Larry's board with Off Topic CA stuff. I have a thread at an MSN board on California if you want to tell me what's wrong with CA. We've posted a bunch of stuff there that IS wrong with CA (ie losing tech jobs), but I think coming out of this bear market, we're in for a few good years.
http://groups.msn.com/InvestingandFinance/general.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message...
I've subscribed to Brinker's newsletter for many years and don't recall AWE as a recommended stock, Larry. Plus, he removed TEFQX from his fund list a long time ago.
Hey Justa, agree that we should be a little nervous that the SP500 and DOW made a lower high. Time will tell if the Nasdaq can drag 'em up or not. Also notice the negative divergences on the charts!!!
Interesting board, Lisa. Good luck with those semis!
Gutsy move, Larry. If we emerge from the weekend and nobody has had to use the duct tape and plastic sheets, we may get a bit of short-covering and a relief rally!
Looking at the bullish-bearish chart, it seems that whenever we start seeing the increase in bearish advisors (or decrease in the bullish ones), that's when the selling really begins.
AT
Zeev there is also some criticism of the dividend tax cut coming from Republicans. So, those stocks that have moved up in anticipation of this may be facing a "wall of worry" that any tax cut compromise would remove this proposal.
AT
Zeev while the economic data may be improving it's hard to know if that will translate into a "buy stocks" mentality by investors. Because in the short term, overshadowing the improving economic numbers are layoffs, state tax hikes and job cuts, over $30/barrel oil (higher gas prices), war with Iraq, (etcetera).
In order to get the stock market going, you need to have people enthusiastic about committing their cash to stocks.
Longer term, there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel. But in the meantime, there is chaos in Venezuela and troop buildup in the middle east. Oil is going up for now. That's never a positive.
Combine that with Investors Intelligence numbers already over 50% bullish! LOL! Seems to me that they need to get a bit more pessimistic before we have our launching pad for a rally.
Enough with the pessimism. I certainly hope that all have a great holiday. Enjoy the time with friends and families. Take a break!!!
AT
Zeev: Bear flag?
Is that a bear flag on the (index) charts?
Percentage of stocks trading over 40-day moving average
Anybody know of a site that has a chart of this? tia
Zeev, your thoughts on this move in market off lows. We have had a move up off of huge oversold levels and many weeks down. Then a pullback late in the week. Is the pullback (on light volume) a healthy sign of consolidating the move? Is the pullback a retest of the lows? Or something else? Do you have price targets? Also, any thoughts on biotechs or utilities in here? Thanks in advance...
Won't MSFT stop supporting NT and 2000 soon, forcing companies (who want support) to make the migration to XP? Heavy handed? Sure, but sure beats migrating to a Mac or losing support!
Zeev, many are saying that the dramatic up day on friday's half-day of trading was actually bearish. I'm wondering if many have read the paper over the weekend, wondering and worrying that they missed "The Bottom" and might be entering their "market orders at the open" to buy. Creating an early morning G&C scenario for the day.
I have also been following your posts over at SI and wanted to say thanks for all the valuable input!