Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Horseman, I am still here. Just back from hiking some mountains in Tennessee.
I still have my entire position in SASI. It has not been pretty though that's for sure. My take on it remains the same. The entire metal 3D space has been an example of how not to launch a new technology. The amazing degree of disjointed, unorganized work, secrecy, segregation and manipulation within the industry has prevented any success. Losses across the industry, regardless of who you are talking about, are large. Nobody is being successful. The industry now will either wither and die, or seriously consolidate to a hard core.
In-situ analysis will be necessary for metal AM. There is no other way to mitigate very costly production risk without it. If the metal AM industry goes on to live, then in-situ will be a part of it. And as I have said many times before, SASI's patent portfolio is their key to value. If you have in-situ, then you must have the patents too. The patents will be acquired one way or another, whether SASI survives or not, if metal AM is to continue. So I wait to see who wants the patents.
All the best,
Silversmith
Been following BioLargo for a few years now. I don't own any of it. Yet. Things do seem to be moving along. But man alive the share structure of this company is a wreck. The whole reason for the share price and action to be essentially stuck in place for years is flat-out dilution of the common stock. And the company baldly states in the 10K that they fully plan on more dilution to fund operations in 2023.
Money is scarce for this company, as is the case for most all microcap startups, so I understand the difficulties of cash raises. But it is the common share that is bearing the weight of the load, and I don't see that changing until the share and cash-flow structure are significantly cleaned up. I guess I will keep watching from a distance.
All the best,
Silversmith
Boy are you out to lunch with your understanding of what this is all about.
All the best,
Silversmith
Max, I still follow SASI and the additive industry in general. I don't visit this board much at all anymore. The probably paid for bias of commentary here is way too detrimental to making reasonable sense of things.
And I still have a sizable position in SASI.
They will roll out a new platform with all the spectral monitoring modes that the industry has made use of. I am waiting to see if they stay away from acoustic in the new platform. GE has made no progress in acoustic, and it looks like SGLB was right all along in that the physics of the meltpool was thermal, not acoustic.
The whole metal additive industry floundered for a number of years in its fragmentation of structure and secrecy. The players have pretty much come to see that now, and are progressing to crystallize the different parts of the tech space that are working. PR3D is definitely in the part of the mix that is working.
My take on what I see and hear is that SASI will get purchased. For how much, I can only guess; maybe around $80-$100 million usd. It looks to me like there is about to be consolidation of the industry. All the 'me-too' noise from companies on the edges of the industry will go away. Only the core players, and those with the production scale and might to make metal AM profitable, will go forward.
SASI will need to re-fund before long. I doubt anyone, including SASI corporate, has the will to mess with the common share structure. My guess is that a re-funding will be through preferred shares. This funding round will be an important one. The whole landscape of finance and global economics has changed significantly for the worst. Things have become much more difficult for business in general.
But all in all, there are actually a number of things going on with SASI that don't get talked about. They continue to get direction from the really big players in the end-user market. Things are still evolving with the direction of the tech. Probably the biggest part of the puzzle for SASI success is the metal AM industry itself getting its act together and growing significantly.
I'm still holding.
All the best,
Silversmith
It's probably a glitch of some kind, but MarketWatch is showing SGLB public float dropped from ~10.4M shares to ~6M and change. Short position has moved up a bit too. Is the company buying back shares? I doubt it, but the listing for the float has changed on MarketWatch.
All the best,
Silversmith
Now that is wonderful news. The polymer segment is very big. Between the two segments, polymer and metal, if PR3D becomes incorporated in printing production, SGLB will be a pretty big revenue generator. And the nice thing about polymer is that it is already widely in production. Metal production has been a face-plant from the beginning.
All the best,
Silversmith
Things are looking a bit unstable in the stock market now. Little ole SGLB is being pulled right down with all the rest. Hey Outlook, here comes your $2.00 prediction. Looks like you were right. Somewhere around $1.25 will be about equal to the cash on hand for the company. Pretty much at this point all forward looking potential is priced out of the company. Ruport's market buy is down about 30%. All company employee options are about worthless. I'm sure they are loving this. Welcome to SGLB everyone. The company that can't seem to make a go of it.
But the big question of the moment is whether this is a good entry point. I really don't know. SGLB has no bid support. No price seems to make investors interested. Nobody is interested. Nobody will do anything other than possibly flip the stock. SGLB has put up a hell of a long history of not getting it done, so who knows where this stock will go.
All the best,
Silversmith
I'm sure everyone here has seen the popular media news feeds about the energy industry talking about how 3D metal printing is the way to go. It seems they have turned to metal AM in a much bigger way recently. The industry itself has come up with its own numbers for cost savings by switching to metal AM, and they are compelling. No doubt this is some of the source for the increased activity in SGLB's effort.
But a further interesting item is a Dubai interview with the CEO of GE Aviation. It seems GE Aviation is now looking to make acquisitions in the space. Who knows if GE has its sights on little ole SGLB.
All the best,
Silversmith
Well it certainly wasn't any acquiring company CEO talking, that's for sure.
But never mind.
All the best,
Silversmith
I hear you Windbag. But you won't hear it anywhere but as a whisper. GE offering for SGLB would be a very hush hush secret until the very moment the offer is released to the public in a PR. With SGLB investors refusing to price the company for any kind of future success, any party intent on making on offer would want it very quiet indeed.
All the best,
Silversmith
Not to mention the whisper on the wind that GE will buy SGLB. It makes perfect sense. GE has acoustic. SGLB has thermal. GE acquiring SGLB and the thermal patents would give GE a lock on global IPQA for additive. Essentially all global IPQA would have to go through GE. Makes sense to me.
All the best,
Silversmith
You gather correctly Max. SGLB has constructed a pretty high-powered management team, but none more connected with the big dogs of the industry than our ex-GE dude. All kinds of possibilities and opportunities open up with this addition. But I think it is more that SGLB has sharpened the pointy end of the spear for all three target customer types, OEM, end-user, and the big global conglomerates that are both. Things are way more powerful and skilled, and carry much more serious weight within the industry for SGLB now, compared to even a year ago. But you watch, SGLB is going to mess around and get bought by someone. In my mind it is only a matter of time.
All the best,
Silversmith
Now that is a telling piece of news. All kinds of layers to that onion. Holy smokes. Way to go SGLB.
All the best,
Silversmith
Not real surprising though. They hit some speed bumps. Sounds like its coming though. Pipeline 3 or 4 times the volume over just last month, lots more sales people (we finally have a real sales-team footprint out there), 4 or 5 deals were pushed out to Q3 for real life reasons (revenue would have been $400K to $600K more for Q2 if they didn't get pushed out), Materialize's platform and PR3D being integrated toward closed loop, and the biggie for me is that the engineering team is being run ragged by customer opportunities. I have personally been in that boat for new technology launches. It means sales things will come out of it, and the tech/deal-closing skills get honed nicely.
I like the numerous institution/analyst following in place. It pretty much means that once SGLB starts firing on all cylinders with recurring sales, the share price is going to begin to look very nice indeed.
All the best,
Silversmith
Nothing special is going on with the weakness in SGLB and AM companies. SGLB has messed around and gotten itself listed on the NASDAQ and the Russell Microcap index. As a result there are now institutional forces at work on the stock price. And the small cap world of stocks has been hit hard across the board over the last three weeks. It is far, far more than just the AM industry. The root cause issue is the overriding question of to what extent inflation will impact things; particularly the future cost of money for these small cap stocks that will continue to need money to grow.
SGLB is just one of the many pieces of debris floating along in the back and forth tide. For the moment SGLB is a messy investment, and has been for a number of years.
All the best,
Silversmith
Does anyone here actually believe that Ruport and the rest of the officers of SGLB have performed such that they deserve the proposed millions of dollars of compensation that they are lining up with the upcoming vote? Ruport alone can bring in $750,000 just in bonuses.
I personally don't believe they have earned the right to ask for this compensation.
All the best,
Silversmith
The short position in SGLB continues to taper downward. But there is still weakness on the long side, all of it related to the $15 million cash raise. Once all the dust settles from the hedging and warrant conversions, we should resume some share price growth. Indeed, if this is mostly all of the selling pressure we are going to see with the warrants having been converted, then it will be mostly clear the warrant holders are fairly bullish on SGLB. I estimate that only about one million(maybe a tick more) shares of the conversions have gone to the sell side. The short hedging action has definitely come to a stop, and is in fact reversing some. But over the last two weeks, every volume move up was met with conversion share selling. Whether the sell volume was mild, or they are trying to bleed it into the market without tanking the stock, I don't know. If it turns out the sell side volume is low, then we should move up again. Either way, with a real SGLB win announcement, the stock should move hard to large gains.
All the best,
Silversmith
Quite a few moving parts here. Hopefully this is the last of the fallout from the 2020/early 21 cash raise. And hopefully the last for a good long while.
I am wondering if the Russell inclusion is anticipated by the institutional holders as likely to yield a nice move up. The short position had dropped to 8.55% about a month ago. It just dropped to 7.55% this week. Are they planning to trim their long position and don't need the original 9.27$ short position to hedge the new position? Or is the short position at risk due to the Russell inclusion; or simply because it is getting to be about time for a nice positive news release. Either way, lets get the warrants cleared out. Hopefully SGLB can manage to act like a real professional company making money, as opposed to being professional at selling shares and continually peeing on any parades that may come along.
All the best,
Silversmith
The much-bigger-rocket race is already in full swing Windbag. The impetus is primarily that the military wants the ability to move up to 100 ton equipment and gear payloads anywhere on the earth within one hour via rocket. Mr. Musk's society changing vision and achievement of landing spent boosters for re-launch have made this possible right now. Very large amounts of money is headed to the rocket tech space for this point to point rocket tech. After that, it is envisioned that non military applications will come into existence.
All the best,
Silversmith
All the ridiculous blather about SGLB around here is mostly meaningless nowadays; has been for quite a while. While it remains that surprises can happen, it is heavily probable that SGLB will yield large value for industry, investment and society.
SGLB now has some of the very biggest dogs in the investment world, both private and Hedge Fund class, invested in the company. The heads of these entities don't act with the same information retail plays with. Interviews with C-suite executives and engineers all across the specific metal 3D space would have been completed. Serious digging and way deep analysis will have been concluded first. The fact that these entities have taken the positions they have with SGLB pretty much says it is very highly probable that SGLB will take its place among the pantheon of highly innovative and disruptive technology companies in society.
The notion of SGLB's vision and belief in IPQA for welding in metal 3D printing was so arrogant and futuristic and preposterous and very, very innovative and disrupting that nearly all thought it was improbable and impossible. Not so anymore. Metal 3D printing is a breakthrough for industry and society, and SGLB's PR3D is among the core of the value.
You can say all you want about what transpired in the past, but is has nothing to do with what will happen in the future.
All the best,
Silversmith
It will be interesting to see if the new institutional investors cover some of their shorts if we get a move into SGLB. There is no doubt the bulk of the recent share price pull back was due to the institutionals placing a collar on their long position. They placed some protection on the investment by shorting about a third of the long position. We had dropped to a total short position in the upper 4% range just days before the announcement of the institutional investments. Then right after the announcement the total short position dropped to 4.13ish %. Then not quite a week after the shares were distributed the short position jumped, in one day, to over 9%. I have little doubt they were putting some protection in place.
All the best,
Silversmith
Indeed. Maybe all time. Historically for SGLB Q1 results were the worst of the year. If that remains the case, SGLB will have a very nice year. Ruport stated they already see the momentum for Q2. If multi unit sales come in 2H, we are looking at the best year by far for SGLB.
Lockheed is going to make PR3D even better than the new coming release. PR3D is getting powerful. OEMs are going to feel some serious pressure. It was very interesting to hear about the idea of letting them go ahead and sense with their current systems, but feed it to PR3D Analytics. That is a big idea. SGLB may just lock up the whole industry.
Exciting news about Automotive building a head of steam too. Things are looking better and better for sure.
All the best,
Silversmith
Now we are finally getting some real consideration concerning the degree of potential for SGLB. It should undoubtedly grow in scope from here. Analysts are coming on board, and the number of eyes on SGLB's potential will go up significantly. Things are definitely looking good for SGLB and investors.
This seems like it will be a very good year for SGLB.
All the best,
Silversmith
I remember when Cola had to go hat in hand and give one hundred million shares for $1,000,000 that netted about $700K after fees. Things have indeed changed a bit. Now investors are coming to SGLB with money, willing to pay market prices for the shares, and not asking for guarantees. I highly doubt SGLB went looking to raise money with last week's sell. It came to them.
Ruport comes across and looks pretty confident about things for SGLB. I would imagine SGLB will be pretty busy in the coming months. The industry is now mentally prepared to go with IPQA. When the gates open, it will likely be pretty much a flood for SGLB. A small number of things have to happen yet, but they are in the works as we speak. The energy is building nicely.
All the best,
Silversmith
You forgot to include the part where the proposed increase in authorized is only temporary to cover the life of the warrants.
All the best,
Silversmith
He means SGLB doesn't have to have an employee for each single partner or revenue line. It's not one for one. He was allaying the concern that SGLB would end up with either too few, or too many employees for the number of current and yet coming new customer/partnerships. It's not linear in that largely more service demand can be met without largely more employees.
All the best,
Silversmith
Oh I agree with you one hundred percent. I don't blame the company. They did what they had to do to survive. As you say, that is life. But it doesn't change the picture. The share structure is what it is.
All the best,
Silversmith
This is an interesting story and a promising tech. But the company share structure is nothing but dangerous for investors. I come from the water industry, and this tech might prove to be huge. But the company share structure is going to take a very large portion of investor wealth before they can clean the mess up. I would like to take a position here, and may yet, but I don't see how anyone can be meaningfully long in BLGO.
At some point, probably next year, the C-suite will have had some success under their belt and decide it is time to move to the big boards; maybe NASDAQ. About the only way they can easily do that is by enacting an at least 10 for 1 reverse split. And the news will just drop out of the sky. No warning, no cover. As this year unfolds, BLGO will turn to the 10 million dollar equity line of credit to finance the increasing cost of operations from supporting the municipal trials. The lender will convert and sell into the market to cover risk, so the share count outstanding will rise higher.
It's a shame, really, for such a promising story. The company has existed on the backs of investors in the age old story of not enough time, not enough people, not enough resources, and not enough money to take the tech where it needs to go. So they end up with a messy share structure that at some point needs to be cleaned up, almost always at the expense of the common share holders.
I will keep watching. There ought to be a way to make at least some money trading this.
All the best,
Silversmith
Thanks GR1D.
But rest assured, this fruit isn't even close to ripe yet.
All the best,
Silversmith
This is also by far the most value gained in one day for me. If this stays where it is for the day, I'm looking at well over $300K gained. Green all around also, finally.
As Vis has been saying for a while now, if you can't look and see that the metal AM industry is rapidly moving to IPQA tech, and that PR3D is the leader in the tech, then you need to pick a different sport.
All the best,
Silversmith
Autodesk.
All the best,
Silversmith
I think its pretty clear, with all we now know about IPQA, Windbag, why IPQA hasn't taken off yet. The biggest reason is that it hasn't been, and mostly still isn't, trusted. And considering how far PR3D has come since the earliest PR3D versions, it certainly wasn't very sophisticated in its early days. But IPQA seems to be becoming a pretty sharp scalpel, with more to come for sure. It has become a fairly finely pointed tool already.
All the best,
Silversmith
Interesting video T&L. I sensed there were all kinds of unspoken undercurrents coming from both parties. I sense things are about to get intense, seriously competitive, no prisoners taken, timely action being essential, and all seriously important in the IPQA space.
I have only seen one company put out marketing info of a real time, on the fly, laser energy closed loop function. And they also directly refer to PR3D for capturing the IPQA data during print runs. That was Polaris.
None of the big named printer manufacturers, EOS, Concept(GE), Additive Industries, DMG, etc have touted closed loop laser energy functions to my knowledge.
A nice little dust up is in the making in the industry concerning how the various attempts at IPQA are going to get compiled into a working methodology. I suspect we will see war over it in the next bit of time.
PR3D is becoming so much more advanced than it was in the beginning. It is looking strong right now. The patents are going to be worth their weight in gold, or maybe bitcoin. I don't see the other IPQA programs(collections of data at differing emission frequencies) being allowed to encroach in SGLB's patent space.
The coming standards from ASTM, NIST and ISO are probably not going to absolutely spell out which IPQA program is acceptable and which is not. They are probably going to leave the end user to decide what degree of IPQA precision is desired for their specific end use. So the patents, degree of historical evaluation by the industry, capability power of PR3D, and machine agnosticism will likely be what enables SGLB to capture the lion's share of the IPQA market over time.
I believe we are now entering the beginning of the last chapters to be written in the book of IPQA battles for winning the industry's business.
All the best,
Silversmith
Mostly only my timing has been wrong....the hardest thing to get right. But you should see my accounts. Green across my board is just around the bend, and every dime change in SGLB's price is a big ass number for me. I have lost some battles, but I am going to win the war.
All the best,
Silversmith
Now that SGLB's common is closing above five bucks, as long as it continues, SGLB will have cleared the minimum share price hurdle of a very large number of institutions with minimum share price charter purchase limits. I expect to see a fairly strong push higher in the near future once these institutions begin taking a position in SGLB .
All the best,
Silversmith
One of the neat things about modern charting is that everything can be compiled in it.
Since January 1, 2018 there have been eleven reported SGLB earnings reports. Number twelve will hit the books soon. Of those eleven reports charted, only three have been down. All the rest were up, eight of them. And if you look at the upward slope of the rise in the earnings, it is definitely sloping at ever upward rates. I would say the CEOs of SGLB have been right so far in declaring growing revenue for as far as their eyes can see. The numbers don't lie.
I would say that the market is taking a position in SGLB according to what they see and hear. The market is taking it at SGLB's word, and deed from the numbers, and pricing the market cap accordingly. This move up isn't going to stop until somewhere around a $100-120 million market cap, in my opinion. It will take a few months to do it, but that is where it is going. Then the company has to come through with what Ruport has several times publicly stated about realizing multiple seven figure cash flow streams this year. When it looks like that is happening, this thing will move to a $300-350 million market cap. Mark my words, provided the entire stock market doesn't crack open before then.
All the best,
Silversmith
Not so dude. The SGLB short position shrank back to lower levels last week.
All the best,
Silversmith
Very nice find T&L.
This is quite interesting, as it clearly looks like a serious push for real closed loop using PR3D. All the pieces for it are front and center with this company.
SGLB continues to move the ball down field despite what many on this board believe. SGLB is going to make some people a great deal of money, and the market is starting to smell it.
All the best,
Silversmith
Mark this day down Windbag. You and I agree on something. Time for my ignore button as well.
All the best,
Silversmith
It didn't leave. It is still there. Only the share structure math changed. No ownership changes were made. Good grief.
All the best,
Silversmith