Gee, I think I'll steal my employee's 941 taxes and hope no one notices. What? It's not THAT bad an idea. Is it? OK, OK! I'll just issue more shares!
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Tomorrow SHOULD be a gap up to $3 but NOOOOOOOOOOO. Some lowlife boiler room weasels with short shares to cover will start an 'overstated FCF' rumor or AUY accountants will drop another asset expensing write off on shareholders during the conference call. And...back down to $2.25 we go. Really getting sick of this company being manipulated like some penny pink sheet scam...
janice....
looking for dcsteve or any of old scambusting gang...apologize to all members for OT....no way around it. FAKE board now under new control...best wishes, 'serpent'
Downtrend partially explained...seems Freescale merger shareholders are liquidating their buyout position in NXPI stock.
Considering they held a reported 18% of the float, that the stock has only retraced $6.00 (6.7%) to date off it's recent highs is pretty amazing. I am attempting to find out details on exactly why they dumped their entire position and where that money is going...due to NXPI's announcement of their recent note issue and the fact they are still engaged in a stock buyback. It could end up being a major positive under the circumstances.
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It didn't help matters any that the guy on the NXPI CC sounded like he just blew out of an Andy Devine movie.
Sometimes I wonder if these guys realize how important reporting results and future guidance really is. They claim to spend so much of their time, resources and thought on improving shareholder value then hold CCs with all the pre-emptive concentration of a fifth grade Christmas skit.
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NXPI beats their own call by .04 share, revenues up 57%
Hard to find anything bad at all in the entire 2nd quarter report except that management is somber and realistic on AI tech projections having to do with autonomous commercial vehicle production near term, so naturally stock tanks. Sometimes I wonder if Cramer being behind a company does embolden short hedge fund managers to come after it despite the fact the company is strong. Maybe he should expand his program to have a segment where people call in, give him a big 'f*** you' instead of a booyah and ask him to stop touting their company for a couple years so the stock price can recover....
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Crushed $1.11 consensus with $1.39 and Y/0 growth in revenue.
AAPL went up $6 and change on lesser news, if NXPI shows typical azz backwards semiconductor sector reaction it will drop $6 tomorrow. Conference call @ 0800 Eastern Thursday, July 28, 2016 if anyone's interested:
http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/f47ac2ua/lan/en
Looks like a clear shot to $130 from here if there is any logic left in the world....
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Most recently NXPI has been heavily touted at $78 to $80
on his show. Now that it is at $88 (as high as $89.97 if you count AH frenzy on the anticipated earnings/revenue beat tomorrow), looks like he called a 13% profit over a three week period. So where is his credit for that? NXPI is a LT hold...10 years from now is when the truly smart money will be able to brag. You don't get a chance to pick up a MSFT or an AAPL or an INTC in it's infancy but once or maybe twice in a lifetime and NXPI, even if it misses tomorrow and crashes back into the 70s, is one of those exceptionally rare occasions. I have no idea what Elon Musk is thinking, but you know he's going with either NVDA or NXPI for his new chipset platform. He might even be considering a buyout of one of the companies (NXPI is by far the cheapest) although I would see that of more of a distraction than a good M&A move for Tesla. Still when the Tesla announcement is made, figure the winning company is up 25% on the news. $114 will be a distant memory soon after that....
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A quick scan of IHUB shows me that as a 'mistaken promoter' of NXPI or any of a couple thousand other stocks, Cramer is hardly alone in being deceptive or wrong most of the time . He may not own all his failures but at least he doesn't continue to promote them under a new name after he makes his mistake...
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In all fairness, the market as a whole corrected a couple times since his recommendation as markets are prone to do. Blaming every stock decline on Cramer when it falls is about as fair as Obama's critics blaming him for everything in the world that has gone wrong in the last few hundred years. First, Cramer is not a promoter of NXPI as a trade, he is a long term holder in which case an occasional pullback is irrelevant as anything but another buying opportunity. Secondly, whether you use the metrics of earnings, forward P/E or M&A valuations in the industry, NXPI is dirt cheap even at $103...which makes it a screaming bargain long term at $84. Third, if you were taking that recommendation on NXP as a trade (and he initially made it in the low to mid 90s as I recall, not $103), then it should probably have been sold on any 10-11% quick gain anyway.
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Not this time EC. Even the bald squirrel finds an acorn in his wig once in awhile.
The combination of debt pay down from sale of the low tech cyclical chip business and their smart car platforms (along with one of the most brilliant and astute management teams and BODs I've ever researched) makes Jimmy C right this time. By any metric of semis NXPI is worth $130 a share as it sits here. Once grandma is letting the Buick drive her to the market (I estimate as early as 2019-20), NXPI is going to explode into the next AAPL. I've been a holder of the common stock since $35 accumulating on pullbacks and I'll be holding it in another 15 years when it's that price again....after five or six 3/1 stock splits.
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Word on my grapevine is that one hedge fund is in process of covering almost 50% of the total 2.5% of DRRX shares currently short. As to exactly why...who knows. But smart short hedge fund managers don't cover when they think there's more room in the basement. They cover when they know they're preserving profit and when they don't have to fight irrational buying pressure ahead of good news.
I was interested when I saw the insiders loading up. But that could be for many reasons. When the short hedges start covering in quiet blocks over a couple days, I become REAL interested. Will wait for a little pullback after the short cover ends and probably add some more around $1.40...suggest you longs hold tight here if the money isn't critical to your life style (you're pretty much nuts to put it in DRRX anyway if it is) and you can stay the course till around the end of the third quarter 2016. I sincerely doubt the real payoff in DRRX is going to be made in a couple day trades.
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Short term AAPL is headed to $100-$101
Then be prepared to see support levels broken all the way down to $86 over the next two to three months and quite possibly a panic day touch of the base at $75. This market has no fundamental reason left to go up in the near term and anyone who believes otherwise either is engaging in wishful thinking or simply doesn't understand economics. If you don't plan for what's coming you are gambling and without a plan you will lose a ton of money between now and next September. I'd be buying AAPL here and dumping it all between $100 and $101. Then somewhere between $75 and $80 this summer I will be loading the truck for the I7 bump to $110-$115 this fall. Cheerleading ain't investing boys and girls...as I have correctly stated here many times before stop falling in love with your stock.
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Don't worry...AAPL on the way to $80 a share soon...
That up and down pattern will soon be headed down to where the stock is fairly valued. Interesting how shareholders are just in complete denial about the fantasy '$36 a share in cash' that the company is holding (in offshore accounts). They just can't seen to grasp reality in that if that cash was repatriated to shareholders or back into the US, a third would disappear ***poof*** instantaneously in taxes. Then there is the off balance sheet debt. Depending on which reality based unbiased/neutral accounting discovery report you read, after everything would be said and done, AAPL ends up with as little as $800M in net cash or less than .25 cents a share. You can fumble around in the dark like American do nothing legislators who keep adding to the US's $19 trillion in debt thinking this kind of insanity can go on forever with no day of reckoning. But sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost and sooner or later the truth about shareholder access to all that AAPL cash will be revealed. Reality being there is absolutely no way to get it or the value it represents to them without losing it to debt retirement and taxes. Period. And when it does you will see that $36 a share vanish like the illusion that was holding it in place. $80 a share possibly as early as November? Get ready. It's on the way...market correction or no market correction. You heard it here first...and second...and now third.
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Every time since $100+ that I've posted BABA was a $35 stock I've been ridiculed. My oh my...I stand by my prediction of $35 before 2015 is out. $50 looks like it's going to end up being the new high water mark once BABA breaks it hard. 2020 before this bloated pig ever sees triple digits again. And that might take a reverse split, lol...
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Yes...do that.
Yikes....that is one UGLY chart.
I thought the rants about $80 a share were just white noise but not so sure now. I would be a buyer at $80 though....cash alone dictates that is a no brainer.
Not short...and you could have been up the equivalency of $21.00+ per BABA share had you listened to my DDD swap out recommendation...
WOW....denial et tu Bruti! Any of you guys pulled up a chart on this company lately? They slide below .41 cents on their next earnings announcement and guide even lower for the remainder of 2015 (which I am predicting they will) the Nantucket sleigh ride to $50 will take about two days....then stand by for $35 by December 2015. If you are dead set on a 90% chance of burning your money, buy DDD ahead of the earnings call. Its basically Russian roulette with four bullets but at least you got a 33% chance of a quick score there.
This day in history 2008....
'BlackLung - I am here today....followed your advice yesterday and most of the day today and will continue to follow it...
"You better calm down or you will have a heart attack..this stock is not a day to day.. second by second watcher.. like you are doing...relax watch the green come in plan your retirement i fully trust in jd and there postions ..you seem so nerous..."
As to Large Holders.....I guess I am ONE.....14.6 MILLION shares and holding...not sold 1 share....pps avg .0048...
As to who is selling...IMO...1 share holder with millions of shares who got over extended in this one....selling for "financial reasons"....again IMO.....
GLTUA'
WOW...$67K down the tubes...so much for all those boots on the ground that kept posting the pictures. And this poor sucker went on to be a stomping, rompin' size 12 in real time, warehouse camera appearance and all, lol. Thanks for the memories JD!
bulls....on a couple occasions venomen adopted this bizarro personality on the OVOE boards and others in order to gain the confidence of those he wished to glean personal info from (to discredit or scare them off) and to mask his endless attempts to pump scam companies. He abandoned the venomen persona a good while back after he'd become known as a scammer far and wide. If he posted using his former M/O he'd just be wasting his time....he has to appear to be something really out there or as some 'behind the curtain sophisticate' posting the 'real truth' in riddles to keep the naive ones coming back for more.
That being said, he may be in jail at this point nailed in one of those huge boiler room P&D roundups by the Feds during 2013 and early 2014. I saw a dozen of my long time nemisis disappear during that period to the point where I and a lot of the good people I posted with kind of gave up fighting the scammers ourselves. There just isn't really that much of a need for exposing the scumbags any more as the vast majority of people nowadays have been 'burned and learned' or are too sophisticated to fall for that simple crap P&D schtick that worked during the 1990s and 2000s. Of all the guys I ever battled to expose, venomen was the most persistent. I'm guessing unlike most scammers he probably only dumped maybe half of his payment shares always believing he could pump the things higher even after the initial scam had run it's course. That is why I can still see where he would be out here pumping these long dead scams yet hoping to unload the thousands of worthless shares he still holds as payment for his P&D work to the few gullible suckers left in the online trading world. Normally a P&D board poster would just move on to the next assignment...but after the Feds cracked down so hard in 2013, there are just too many scam posters and not enough penny scams to go around.
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The decline of Alibaba to $35 a share continues. If you are still holding this bloated pig of fantasy, there's time to get out before you lose another $45 a share of your hard earned money. The parallels of the 1999-2000 tech bubble to the same over-blown, non-substantive, debt ridden, no profit companies in China is stunning. Right there in front of everyone's eyes...right out in plain sight and like then, no one believes what is happening. BABA will decline to $30 a share near the bottom of the coming super crash and then bounce back a bit to $35 where it will remain mired for years trading in that $32 to $40 range...where it belongs BTW. It is NOT the Amazon.com of China....just one of hundreds of dot com online markets that will eventually become a steady earner but will never be more than a niche player.
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bulls...that would be our beloved 'venomen'. Now completely berift of mind and money he drifts through the internet stock sites carrying his everlasting tale of hope for One Voice despite the fact that their fearless leader is now (allegedly) on the lam for stock fraud the last time I heard...
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It may be trading at $200 or $300 in a year. It will still only be worth $35. It is all going to measured in degrees of pain when the chickens come home to roost and the inevitable collapse begins...how early you got sucked in will determine the pain level of getting out. How quickly everyone has forgotten January of 2000....
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Hate to say I called this one correctly for all those who hung on, but it sure looks that way. Still not too late to get out as I believe the share price is headed for $1.50 or lower. One of two things are going on. Hedge funds are having a field day shorting these oil LPs just because they can. If you think the short pressure on the stock is what you are reading as a percentage on those stock charts, forget it. The money being made here is 'day shorting' and the guys doing it are methodical and actually not too greedy. They're just going to take BBEP and a lot of others like LINE, etc. down below a buck and pocket their money a little at a time.
There is also the more unlikely probability that management knows the company is in some form of cash insolvent serious trouble they are not talking about. Given the amount of cash they could raise to keep things afloat at the expense of current shareholder's equity, an already weak cash flow could easily decline to a point where BBEP would simply have nothing left except what is guaranteed to the bond holders. No way to tell if they are cooking the books to weather this oil price decline but I am not encouraged by management cashing in their options as fast as they can shovel them out the door. Seriously....this is much too risky to bet more than a couple hundred dollars on....and if you have several thousand in it right now and don't bail, a couple hundred is exactly what you might end up with.
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Perhaps it was our EXPH hero and greatest promotional cheerleader venomen finally cashing in. Love to know where he got to after he was forced to dump all those old aliases following JD getting caught stealing federal wage deductions from employee's pay check tax payments...
Yes it would be difficult to run a penny pump and dump without jack starting it by buying shares in your own 'company'. Fascinating how certain of Todd's 'accounts payable' are rumored to increase at a rate perfectly proportional to his 'stock purchases'. It is under the spewing of such venom, men are trapped in penny stock scams. Of course this is just my opinion...
I've lost all faith in BBEP management after reading the new financing agreements. People buying shares on the open market now have zero rights and assume 100% risk of losing their dividend altogether if the price of oil declines another 10-15%. This with almost zero percent chance of any share gains. I made a ton of money on the first buy in and lost 50% of that on the second. Out and done with BBEP for the foreseeable future. Strongly suggest anyone who does not believe they will see the price of oil back over $80 real soon do the same. Hey, you win some, you lose some...trick is to maximize the former and minimize the latter. Best of luck to you hard core holders who plan to try and weather this one out but if its a safer dividend play you're after I'd suggest FLY for a relatively safe +6% ROC or even LINE if you want to continue to hedge your bet on oil.
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Have to love a company who's stock is overvalued by almost 230% and the majority of it's non Chinese citizen shareholders technically don't even own shares of the company they are invested in. BABA is perhaps worth $35 a share IF you could actually buy shares in the firm instead of de facto paper promissary notes on future earnings from a black hole of Calcutta holding company in the Cayman Islands. When this house of cards collapses it's going to make the Madoff pyramid look like a fixed high school football game....
I am guessing if you would like to buy BBEP low, the irrational fear built into this market segment may be giving you an opportunity around $5 to $5.50 again here soon. Management has stated several times in recent days that a reduction in credit limit by their lender in April is now both expected and very likely a given. They have stated the reduction will likely be to the current outstanding limit they have already tapped but will not affect their ability to run the company as normal. BBEP management is currently looking at all options including new capital sources and a possible equity/bond issue. Almost every analyst (even the incredibly dim and clueless ones) agree that the company is securely hedged to weather oil at averages around $65 BBL through June 2016. There has been no indications whatsoever that a further dividend reduction is in play as a source of short term operating revenue.
Despite idiot analysts (using the exact same information BTW) having price targets spread from $5 to $15 with position recommendations from wildly optimistic 'buys' to end of the earth 'sells', the short camp hasn't really made a move on BBEP's volitility as yet. Recent trading volume and my best guess would indicate the general over-reaction of a Fed interest rate hike (which may be up to an entire half point in total throughout all of 2015...truly a reason to burn down your house, shoot the dog and commit suicide in desperate panic) and a flotilla of recent brain dead wanna-be boy-analyst bashing has inadvertently turned Breitburn into a day trading program vehicle. If it continues I will be back out until it is abandoned by the second to second parasitic scourge of close focus electronic program trading by the chump change crowd. The good news is that I won't need to be out long as commodity issue targeting is the ideal scenario for destroying uneducated short interest and moron day traders in a single session. I don't see BBEP testing the original intraday lows around $4.55, but focus program trading can change everything.
I appreciate what you are saying, but an investor can't invest based on whether or not they like or dislike what they are reading. Right now without a tremendous amount of effort I could search the internet and find you 2-3 stories from the likes of bottom feeding scum analysts at Goldman Sachs that would scare you out of buying any stock. Then I could turn around and using the stocks Goldman Sachs think are teetering on bankruptcy, find just as many stories promoting the same companies as future ten baggers. What you read for free on the internet and even the information you pay for, especially from the clueless moron boy-apprentice analysts at GS or JPM is largely useless. It is always biased, most always issued for the sole purpose of moving a stock in a favorable direction for the company issuing it and largely based on a story inflated and fleshed out from a single negative or positive item of news. In a sentence, investing on anything besides your own due diligence in these markets (at least since 1995) is a proven and guaranteed way to lose money.
Now, would I go around posting negative info about BBEP if I wanted to buy in cheaper? No. Why? Because I have reliable, intelligent, experienced sources who invest and examine companies using the same methods I do...but they wouldn't remain my sources very long if I started acting like the idiot boy analysts that caused us all to rely solely on our own research in the first place. Investing isn't for the roulette player or the wanna-be day traders or the wishful thinkers or the habitual internet board dwellers. You can't make money in these modern markets without patience, a tremendous amount of research and hard work and a plan. The alternative to that is losing money. Period. I make money investing about 65-70% of the time which I consider a phenominal achievement considering I lost money at least that often when I first started out in 1980. The only difference between then and now is that now I do all my own research and avoid any decision based on an influence from a source anyone could access. I do so because a source that anyone could access is being displayed to millions if not billions of eyes. And there can only be one single reason to put a 'money making guarantee' in front of that many eyes for free...you are looking to manipulate a stock price...period, end of argument.
BBEP could be hiding information right now that no analyst from even the largest, most well connected Wall Street firm could ferret out. If any of the people involved with running this company are there for purposes other than improving the bottom line for shareholders, you have to make finding that out your first priority and I always do. Otherwise, every other piece of information you get about BBEP will likely be worthless because it could be coming from a bunch of con men. This is almost always the case on the pink sheets which is why I avoid those companies as anything besides an exercise in educating others and exposing the con artists involved there. But chicanery can and does occur on the legit markets...witness World Com, Enron and Tyco. Almost none of these wanna-be WS wunder-boy-brokers bother with management research any longer. They are just looking to hedge their clients into positions they can illegally manipulate so they can earn huge B&S commissions. The woefully understaffed and over worked SEC can't begin to catch even 1% of the most blatant scammers and every stock scamming artist knows that. So, at any given moment, 99.9% of the info you are reading is likely geared in that direction. Develop your own network of researchers you trust, develop your own plan to utilize that info and ignore most of what you read on internet...whether you 'like' it or not.
I believe the 'W' bottom has formed.
I've finished buying back into the stock between $7.15 and $7.28 and have regained the same level of shares I held during the rise from The mid $4s to $7 where I sold off (admittedly too early) in late January. I mentioned then that BBEP would form the classic 'W' bottom and that it seemed to be forming one then...although not the true second leg. I believe we are preparing to see the second true leg up in the long climb back towards $15-$17 a share.
Initially I may have read too much into any rumored 'political deal' between the Saudis and Americans. It is now my opinion that as is the usual case, the Saudi's are in this manipulative and designed 'pullback' in oil prices mostly alone and for their own wallets. Rather than punishing their political and regional religious enemies, it is likely the Saudis are simply trying to drive some of the world's newest tar sand and fracking drillers out of business to avoid newer future oil supply compromising their profits. They have largely succeeded in doing that as it didn't take an awful lot of $48 BBL oil splashing about to bankrupt these unhedged start up fracking drillers. The entire deal could have also been staged as a short term warning for any new start ups to 'stay out for good'. The Saudis have now delivered the message that they can do this at any time and as often and for as sustained a time as need be to take all newbies under.
With most the drilling yards in the US piled to capacity with idle rigs and the majority of 18 month or under start ups financially damaged beyond recovery, the Saudi's may see the end of their experiment in sight for the time being. As was mentioned by another member in an earlier post, 2015 was to be the year in which world oil demand in the face of even a weak economic recovery would see tanker transport capacity tapped out. With an estimated 15% of the world's fleet now being used as floating storage, it may be time for the Saudis to crank back their pipelines for awhile, let the world absorb that tanker capacity (est. 10-15 days?) and ease prices back into the $65 BBL range. High enough to make their oil wildly profitable...not high enough to allow the newbie frackers to drill their way back to recovery from their devastating losses. This might be the future we are looking at for the Saudis in the face of a dysfunctional OPEC. Like the Fed controlling inflation with interest rates, the Saudis control future supply coming into the market with their own spigots and kill two birds with one stone.
As this relates to BBEP, if I have timed it right (and there is absolutely no evidence that exists today I have) and if oil is headed back towards $65 or $70 BBL over the next six months, BBEP's share price is headed back towards $11-$14 IMHO. And with the $1.00 annual dividend in tow...providing evidence of this predicted price per barrel recovery becomes known before their April lender review. It is going to be a fine line, but BBEP has again and again offered guidance that they are hedged to see this through well into 2016 with average per BBL prices in the $60-70 range. So any move or even any anticipated sustainable move over $55 BBL in oil prices is sure to ease their creditor situation.
This may not be the optimum time for getting back into the shares and either way it is still a huge risk for anyone who might need this money short term. But I'd rather watch the short term turmoil between $5.00 and $7.50 than miss an entry point into the big money momentum all together. That being said, I have faith that long term BBEP will be back well over $17 a share. That belief has it's foundation in nothing more exotic or analytical than avarice. Unless you have ceased to believe in supply and demand or Saudi greed....or just plain old greed in general, I have a feeling there are those of you out there who will tend to agree with me.
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Does ANYONE listen to the bottom feeding SLUGS at Goldman Sachs?
These are the scumbag morons that put a 'sell' rating on NXPI not that long ago and sent it plunging from the low $80s into the low $60s. GS was OFF on earnings, MISSED the M&A activity all together even though it was right under their noses and cost any numbskulls holding NXPI stock that acted on their advice a third of their capital and a near 100% potential profit. I came out in support of NXPI on every board on the internet when they fixed their 'sell' rating on the stock and was even attacked by one of the douchebags at GS for 'knowing nothing of the NXPI's background or earning potential". Yeah well, besides having been at their Dutch headquarters, I was dead on their last earnings report while GS missed it by 25%. I also judged the M&A rumors accurate a month before they were confirmed. GS never even saw it coming. And what did they do today? Oh yeah...sorrrrry! We are assigning a neutral rating and a new price target up from $65 to ahhh, hmmm...oh yeah! Exactly where it's priced now...$100. See! We were right all along...sorrrrrry! There really ought to be a law against these lowlife know nothing parasitic luddites....
Actually BBEP dropped 74% to LINE's 64% all told high to low in that three month period, but I was referring to the 'gasp' factor of BBEP's drop back in November 2014. Of the 74% decline BBEP suffered, 62% of it came in a 14 day period while LINE took a hit of 41% in the same time frame. That's picking nits of course as both falls from grace were horrific for the common share holders of record while they were occurring. My point was that BBEP got the short end of the stick of most all the oil and NG MLPs during this 'oil glut' and therefore, all things being equal, should expect to see an equally over dramatic rebound in price...which it has begun to show.
BBEP will not be 'bought out'...
You have to understand what you are dealing with here in a BBEP or LINE MLP (master limited partnerships). Publicly listed MLPs have not been around all that long and have very stringent requirements and parameters they must meet to qualify for special tax treatment. One of these parameters is the straight through distribution of income to holders of public record, or the common shareholders which creates a tax advantage for the general partnership. It is rare that one gets to trade them for share appreciation as they are normally a tax sheltered or straight income play.
Linn Energy (LINE NASD) is not going up as fast as Breitburn (BBEP-NASD) because it didn't go down as fast as BBEP...which was tremendously oversold below $5 a partnership common share. Coming up with a single intelligent reason as to why a general partnership such as LINE or BBEP would sell out after a huge decline in common share price totally escapes me as it would be a major disadvantage to almost everyone involved. If you hold BBEP for a year or so you will very likely achieve an appreciation in your common share price that would far exceed any offer of a 'buyout' at this level. So I'd strongly advise forgetting about a 'buyout' and base your investment decision on where you think the price of oil is going to be in 12-18 months. If you think it will be back up over $85-$90 BBL at some point during that time as I do (and as T. Boone Pickens does ), then you can safely assume BBEP's share price will reflect that at somewhere between $13 and $19 a share or more.
RISK: The dividend has already been cut (and it's currently .0833 cents per MONTH not quarter as some would have you believe) and capital spending trimmed dramatically. The partnership has set up to operate without a further cut in the dividend assuming oil trading at an average price of $65 - $75 BBL over the next two years. I think the partnership is well positioned from that standpoint. There is, however a situation with their $2.5B credit facility which is currently tapped to almost $2.2B. This facility is reviewable annually in April and can be adjusted downward by the lender. If oil continues to decline in price into this spring and they felt lending to BBEP in the face of further declining crude and NG prices was too risky they could lower the credit limit to $2.2B and in effect shut them off. This could force BBEP to go to a much higher interest lender or (more likely) their shelf registration and issue more shares...thereby diluting those you might be holding. Worst case scenario, if there was a real crisis and an even more massive glut in crude reserves plunged the PPB say into the teens, the common holders are going to have their dividend clipped before the preferred holders...evidenced by what just happened in December. That could send the price of those already diluted shares even lower. The odds of that happening I believe to be extraordinarily remote...but it is still something that needs to be considered.
I recently bought a lot of shares but sold them all yesterday when the price approached (and then later eclipsed) $7. I dumped them not because I've lost faith in BBEP but because I believed a) the price had moved up too far too fast to be sustained, b) that the Fed was going to generally crush the market today with an announced interest rate hike (which I was wrong about) and c) I believe BBEP is in the process of forming a classic 'W' bottom. I expect the second upper leg of the 'W' to decline near to $5.15 to $5.25 before resuming a steady upward recovery movement near mid February. That being said, trying to guess a top and a bottom in a traded commodity like BBEP which is exposed to multiple market pressures is pretty stupid as a general practice and a great way to lose money. But here BBEP fit a very rare set of trading parameters I look for and I am trading it as if they are going to play out as many have for me in the past. If the common shares decline back below $5.30 over the next couple weeks my parameters will have been verified and I will begin repurchasing even more shares than last time. If BBEP soars on past $7 and out of sight, I will have missed the train. But to invest in BBEP hoping for a 'buyout'? A complete and total waste of time and a pointless investment strategy...all IMHO of course.
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One pattern BBEP holders should be watching...
Pull up a ten year chart of BBEP and you will notice a 2008 decline similar to the current one. That decline occurred for entirely different reasons of course but it could be an excellent indicator of how the company's equity responds in a 'crisis' situation. From a high of $22 in spring 2008 it declined precipitously to $6.40 over the next 5 or 6 months. This 70% drop culminated in a classic 'W' bottom and slowly progressed back to a remarkably stable six year range between $18 and $22. While one could argue using a 30 day chart that we have already seen the 'W' form with the primary on 1-14 and the secondary higher leg on the 22nd, I think not and would be surprised not to see a fallback on this meteoric rise. While I would hope that we can break resistance at $7 before Friday's inevitable profit taking and form a new base at $6.20 or thereabouts, there are no guarantees. But a pullback to secondary support levels with a subsequent resumption in a steady climb towards $9.00 would be welcome and on confirmation, allow one to add confidently to current positions once the day traders have moved on to greener pastures. Just a thought....
'I don't care about your technical indicators'
Fine, then check the SEC filings, check the plethora of totally incorrect information you are posting about BBEP and finally, check the scoreboard. If you are waiting for BBEP to 'drop into the four dollar range' then you are waiting for either a general market collapse or catastrophic news that has eluded even the principals. This partnership is not Exxon/Mobil. They don't take two years to make policy and fundamental accounting changes. They identified the situation with the contrived (read: temporary) oil 'glut' and took their borrowing challenges into consideration. They then adjusted the common stock dividend last December and cut G&A spending across the board to compensate for oil at an average well below $75 for the next two years. Crisis? Check. Dealt with? Check.
Now if they have their current credit line readjusted in April they may have to move to their shelf registration proxies to compensate. But we have between now and April till that happens and it would appear that outside of news concerning a major discovery the size of Alaska, the price of oil has hit a fairly firm bottom. Meanwhile, the risk in the stock appears to be an established base of $5.00 providing they hit their modestly adjusted earning projections in February and the price of oil doesn't radically decline below $45 BBL. As neither of those scenarios seem poised to happen I say the stock price movement today is anything but a dead cat bounce. And with the price of oil projected to remain from slightly below $50 a BBL to upwards of $75 BBL by year end and final quarter earnings 2014 for BBEP projected to range from ($0.01) to $.20, average .15 cents, I'd say the common share dividend is safe. BTW, the last dividend declaration was .0833 cents per month not quarter, chief. Declared Jan 5, 2015:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/bbep/dividend-history
$4.00 a share? That would entail a 58% decline from here which would seem unlikely at best seeing it just went through a catastrophic 78% decline due to commodity turmoil and not internal or self inflicted financial issues. With earnings TBA consensus among 11 analysts averaging .15 cents, the reality coming in anywhere above the $.10 to $.12 cent range would render another serious decline very unlikely. And as for the present, well it's too bad that $4 train appears (temporarily at least) to have left even the $6 station behind us....
3D is toast for years...
I bought the stock quite a while back in the high 30s and rode it into the 80s. Then I cried for a month or two after I sold it as it continued to soar into the 90s because I though I'd made a mistake. No mistake, just rational thought...when something is overvalued by $65 a share probably best to take profits and get out instead of chasing it till it's overvalued by $80 a share and poised to crash and burn.
DDD is a $15 stock. It's nice that all that forward looking gas is built into the price right now and it hasn't collapsed any further, but it's double (and maybe even triple) the value it should be and that's just the truth. I was convinced 12 months back everyone and their brother would have three of these in every house...one in the office, one in the garage, one in bathroom printing out dirt cheap tampons and tooth brushes 24 hours a day. Alas, it's just not to be. The American over-consumer looked at 3D printing and went 'why?'. And that is the prevailing opinion that will drive 3D print tech straight into an industrial application only. Use your common sense. Why would anyone want to pay the enormous cost of buying the raw materials to print your own auto parts when an industrial manufacturer somewhere can buy tons of the metal printing powders necessary at massive economy of scale and sell you that same part at a third of what you'd pay to print it in your garage? And sell you those parts without printer expense, printer maintenance or having to source bootlegged crap programming on the internet.
No one is going to buy out 3D at $30 because it would simply be easier to start a unique company, hire away some of the major pipeline techno-geeks, license the intellectual properties you need to fill a niche and go to it. The vast amount of capital generation around 3D printing hasn't even been discovered yet. Major league applications for this tech will be used after 2060 in space as we colonize the Moon and Mars...sent there to build habitat, machinery and tools from raw materials mined at the source. Here and now...nothing but a future manufacturing and medical wet dream still struggling to find a market 10 years ahead of itself....
The stock IS oversold by every technical paradigm imaginable. That's not an opinion...it's fact. And the share price has already been as low as $4.55 as recently as the 14th...what were you waiting for? What 'loan'? They have a credit line of $2.5B of which almost $2.2B has been tapped. That line may or may not be revised down in April 2015 but if it is not, they have $300M available without sourcing any 'loan'. The credit facility redetermination will all depend on the price of oil and natural gas at that time in April. A time far enough down the road that oil and NG has a lot better chance of being headed UP in price than further down. If redetermination lowered their credit facility $300M say...and shut it off for all practical purposes and they decided to use the option of their shelf registration, yeah, the share price may decline a bit. But it's six of one, half a dozen of the other. They are borrowing money to produce a commodity, GA and to do M&A. There is value there...so would you rather have them paying relative high interest to a lender in a tight credit market or have your stock diluted a tad and continue to get a 14% dividend? I suggest you read Breitburn's SEC filings once in awhile...extremely helpful if you are going to invest in a partnership which is a whole different animal than what you seem to be sizing up...
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20150106/A6Z2T22CZ222V2D2222822Z2NS92TM275272
Renee..ORCH is an interesting choice here...
Hmmm, anywhere we can talk? Two symbols...FLY & BBEP...
Ignore the 'CAPTAIN HINDSIGHT' analysts....
Did it ever strike anyone a little funny that even though 7 analysts following Breitburn Partners were recommending it as the best thing since sliced bread at $15-16 and targeting $18-$20, that NOW, during a manipulated oil glut suddenly they have 'revised' their 'science derived' targets down to $7-9 a share and are advising 'hold/neutral'? Do any of you actually pay attention to these a** pandering, clueless morons?
BBEP is going to go through some wild swings over the next 3-6 months but the stock price fluctuated between $15 and $20 a share for a decade with oil during that time ranging from $60 to $120 BBL. Guess what? Allowing for the 33% dividend cut, that means BBEP will very likely be BACK between $14 and $19 a share as soon as the phony oil glut is over...which I predict will be September 2015 at latest. Here you have a $5 stock that is going to triple over nothing more earth shattering than oil returning to $80 BBL in the next year. And no one is buying it? Gee, could it be because of the analysts recommendations? Because as we all know...analysts are NEVER wrong and have ONLY their client's best interests in mind...LMAO!