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I took at look at your intro.
21 trading days in August. You made 42 trades: 39 positive, 3 negative.
No disrespect meant, just giving you my honest reaction, but I find that hard to believe.
Since 1969.
But only occasionally full-time. I've also been a construction worker, a writer, a remodeler, a teacher and coach, a Realtor, a property investor, and six or seven other things.
Nice job.
As we've both said in the past, 10% trades will turn $1 into $2 in about 7 trades.
At that point, you could look around and see most folks still with $1, chasing that 100% dream.
HTM: Oil, gas and electric lobbyists spend almost $4 billion per year in the U.S., and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is the top lobbyist group in Canada.
Until the companies that these groups represent see a financial advantage in promoting geothermal energy, it will remain a very minor part of the equation.
I can believe that. Most participants probably can't tell you what the letters stand for, much less explain the disease.
On the other hand, money is money. I'm certainly not against it, I just thought that the clean water perspective was interesting, something I hadn't thought of.
I realize that the Ice Bucket Challenge is for a good cause, but I saw something on Twitter that gives another perspective:
"This shows that Americans take clean water for granted: throw it away."
Well, IMHO you are in a fabulous, almost no-lose position.
Just don't get too greedy, have a reasonable profit target, when it reaches that target keep your finger on the trigger.
I know the CLSN story quite well. I researched the technology as completely as a non-scientist/doctor could, decided that I wasn't comfortable with the product and opted out of investing.
I know many folks lost a lot on that.
I think that $1.10 is a very reasonable low number, with $1.20 being a very reasonable high number.
I like to shoot for roughly about 20% on my trades: I'm in at .98, so anywhere around $1.15 - $1.18 I'd probably be selling, if I decide not to hold through the release.
In 2011 I made $100K off of the AMRN Marine triglyceride trial results: held through the release (didn't get much sleep that night!), great results, sold that day. But it is always very, very risky.
I agree, the primary question is one of degree of effect.
However, my thought is that if the data review committee had doubts about efficacy they would have recommended that the trial continue. On the flip side, data may have suggested that as the trial continued the numbers were only going to get worse.
I don't think that the latter is true, so I'm expecting good top-line results.
Either way, I also expect an anticipatory run-up. I have not decided whether to hold through the release.
I agree.
However, what I'd actually like to hear is the bear thesis on this! I don't automatically scream basher at someone presenting informed negative opinions. One needs both the positive & negative to make a good investment decision.
Now assuming they go ahead into PH III, I'm certainly not saying that those expanded, more thorough, more exacting results could not be total crap and blow this whole thing out of the water. But based on what the company has said so far (though this being small biotech, that could be a total lie ) I'm expecting positive results.
TRIFECTA trial question, just wondering, open to opinions on this:
Upon reaching the number of targeted patients, a second blinded interim analysis indicated a significant clinical signal without any safety concerns.
Given the stopping threshold had been met, the data review committee said there was sufficient evidence of a treatment effect to warrant ending the study.
Then how can the top-line results--scheduled for release in Sepember-- be anything but positive?
Got it, thanks.
We're both coming from a position that the market isn't rational, but IYO why would a new ANDA cause a drop in the PPS?
(No position but following.)
Thanks for your prompt reply.
Absolutely no offense, but I needed someone with commercial biochemistry experience, plus a knowledge of FDA trials. My usual source was not replying, but he just did.
If I find out anything interesting, I will post.
Best of luck!
Morning all. Did not have any dry powder to average down, so still holding mid-sized position @ .98 average.
Question: is there anyone on this board that can answer a fairly technical question about the TRIFECTA trial? TIA.
California blocked all GI benefits to them; the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau just told them that they have to stop selling student loans (they just sold $19 million worth, much like a bank sells home loans); and now they're selling off their property and equipment.
Yeah, I'd say they're toast.
It was a joke, Matt, look at the original post.
Sometimes one little letter makes all the difference.
OT: I realize that Fannie Mae (FNMA) is still technically an OTC stock and so not for this board.
But quickly: IMHO they're about to settle with Goldman Sachs for $1 Billion++ on the misrepresented mortgage bonds issue (don't think GS really wants to go to trial) and they're hiring a corporate counsel who specializes in re-listing issues.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=63352626
I'd say re-listing to NYSE a very real possibility, $5+ then. I've started scaling in around $4.
Thanks much for answering. Roy PM'd me a similar message, I just wanted to be sure.
Perhaps in the future there will be a technology to see the tumor at a genetic level, a sort of hyper-PET or MRS scan, that companies like FMI can use instead of a biopsy.
Gary
HTM- Don't really think it has anything to do with earthquakes or whatever, perhaps more a delayed reaction from the street to their excellent earnings release on the 14th. Among other things, net income up 360% from the same period last year!
Once alternative energy sources lose their fringe connotations among most of our population--and people realize that we're going to have to accept and use solar, wind, geothermal,etc.--these kind of companies are going to boom.
But that will take a while.
True, but their newly-acquired WGP property is in Sonoma County, north of San Francisco. It's part of the largest producing geothermal field in the world.
And it's right on the eastern edge of the San Andreas Fault.
I agree 100%. I just meant that basically their power production and $$$$ depends on water, of course. So the above ground/below ground water situation in California and elsewhere could affect them.
Well they generate power and make their money from hot springs and geysers, so I suppose that any upstream water source/mineral rights issues could possibly affect them.
The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas.
Been around a long time but still a groundbreaking classic. Not about specific techniques, per se, more about how your thoughts are limiting your ability to succeed.
OT: Blade, some very valid points.
You're really talking about one of the oldest, most basic, and most difficult trading decision everyone faces: when you have a losing position--hold and hope, sell/take the loss/move on, or average down.
Always tough, always depends on the person and his/her financial situation, trading philosophy.
Best of luck.
I'd like to ask you and PGS a very basic question that exposes my ignorance about the subject; I think that I know the answer, but since it concerns a family member I want to be certain.
Is it true that in order to produce any actionable genomic information, they must have an actual tissue sample?
If a solid tumor is located in the brainstem where the biopsy risk/reward is poor, FMI can't really help?
William Blair is raising ITMN's price target to $74 after Roche bought them for $74?
Wow, that is one gutsy call.
In ACST very heavily.
I'm expecting good top-line results for their TRIFECTA trial (triglyceride lowering), but of course, one always has to be very careful about holding bio's into binary events.
Not sure if I will hold all the way, but certainly expecting a run-up into mid/late September.
Best of luck.
BAA- I have no position short or long, sold it last week, just trying to give traders some background.
Most short-term traders don't do a lot of DD, I usually do. BAA made a major, major engineering screw-up in the building of their new facility at Namoya. It's a complicated story, the company admits it, all facts can be found here:
http://news.banro.com/press-releases/banro-provides-q2-2014-production-update-for-its-t-nyse-mkt-baa-201407090956701001
Anyway, they say it's going to cost them at least 2 mil for short-term fix, 20 mil for medium-term fix, won't even say long-term costs.
Repetitive all-bold capital letter posts aside, the more DD you do the worse the fundamentals look.
UQM- Made $$$ on this a few years ago after doing some research. I still think it's a solid company: good financials, good management (CEO is former CEO of Chrysler), great market niche. Here's a quick, nicely done slide show about them:
http://issuu.com/uqmtechnologies/docs/uqm_technologies_company_overview_a/0
And--since this kind of thing is important to a lot of folks--they're a genuine U.S. company with headquarters and manufacturing in Colorado.
Contrary to popular belief, BOLDED CAPS does not a logical argument make.
BAA- Just my two cents, FWIW.
I don't think the market has had time to really digest and understand the news; perhaps those experts who do fully understand it are using this kneejerk reaction as an excuse to unload their shares on new retail buyers, I don't know.
Yesterday's PR announced a very complicated business deal dependent on a lot of unknowns: future world gold prices; the actual amount of gold in their mines (all small natural resource companies are notorious and habitual...shall we say exaggerators); the political situation in the Congo; physical problems with their operation (they have a big one at their new Namoya mine). This just names a very few.
IMHO they gave away the store to buy a few more years existence: no surprise, commonly done.
I hope everyone here makes a mint trading this, but I think it's rapidly going back to sub-.20 and then down & down from there.
Mon Aug 18, 2014
Banro Announces Financing Plan and Certain Senior Management Changes
http://news.banro.com/press-releases/banro-announces-financing-plan-and-certain-senior--nyse-mkt-baa-201408180963388001