Systematic Investing Group

[lostcowboy]

First, I am not going to be doing any planning for a large lump sum amount of money. Just a Systematic once a period plan. I want a plan that can work with something like an index, and also something as wild as BitCoin or some other crypto coin.

With the stock market, they say it goes up 3/4ths of the time, so that sounds like a good ratio of stocks/(cash/bonds) ratio to start with. SO amount per month X .75 to stocks, 0.25 to cash/bonds.

So as long as the stock market is in a bull market I invest (Amount X .75).

But what about Dips? Buy more on the Dips! How? Add (Williams %R) to the formula! The period is to be determined later, but at least 52Ws I believe. So now our formula looks like (Amount X (Williams %R +0.75) or (amount X a range between 0.75 and 1.75). If we use (.75 X (1 + Williams %R) we get a range between 0.75 and 1.5.

Average Cost, we want the average cost to be as low as possible. If the current price is above average cost the average cost will go higher. Only when the current price is below the average cost will the average cost go lower. Also, the number of periods involved will have an effect on how much the average cost will move. For example, if you have been investing the same amount for 24 periods then each price point will affect the average cost by (100%/24 = 4.1%) the only way to have a greater effect is by investing a greater amount than average for that period. This is why Robert Lichello had a second part to his Synchrovest plan formula, for investing large amounts when the current price was below the average cost. He used ((average cost/current price)- 1) X (cash/bonds). I still like the idea of using a two-part formula.

Should we sell when we have a decent profit? how much is good enough? should we sell all at once or a little at a time? Should we be selling during the bull market, or wait until we are over the hump, and how much of a decline is big enough, can it be done? All this is to be determined upon a later date.