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Since the dark days of mid- to late-Oct, my top positions have not changed. The only real change is that I added significantly
to FCSC into the end of October.
FCSC
added to position throughout October
Now whole position
Solidly in the green
SESN
added to position
1/2 position
Near breakeven
ATOS
No change
3/10 position
Solidly in the red
LPI is one of the poorest performing U.S.-based petroleum companies for 2018.
The 2 major reasons for this underperformance are: 1) Their favorable off-take agreement with RDS was terminated 2) Midland WTI plunged as a result of supply bottlenecks in the Permian
Recently, the differential between Permian Basin and U.S. benchmark oil has been shrinking.
H-2/19, new pipelines will begin to relieve the bottleneck
LPI profits have already begun to improve. Earnings growth doubled H1/18 YOY.
CFRX is working to bring the first phage-derived biologic to market
CF-301 is recombinant lysin that was derived from bacteriophage to combat MRSA
CF-301 can work within biofilm
FCSC
Added to position
Now 1/2 position
SESN
No change
1/3 position
ATOS
Sold a little on the intraday spike
3/10 position
10/8 update
No changes to my last reported positions, except that I took 1/4 position in SESN making it my third largest
SESN
Bought 1/4 position
Willing to buy 1/2 position
Have some remorse that I didn't buy more today
Topline Ph3 Refractory Bladder Cancer data will be available H1/19
This treatment is fast tracked.
Will not hold thru data so this is likely a scalp for me
ARCO LATAM fast food must compete with street food at a fraction of the cost.
Having lived in Philz for years I can tell you Jollibee was a good investment not because it's fast food, but because it's a relatively nice environment for their middle class to dine. Street food is a fraction of the cost and is the real fast food there.
Is ARCO the Jollibee of Latam? I don't know. Ian Bezek says it will never be. He says an ARCO burger costs 4x the price of a street burger.
In Philz there are no street burgers. There are roasted chicken and pork parts and rice with eggs. Jollibee doesn't compete with street burgers.
ARCO may never be a good investment.
FOLD (update)
Correction on earlier update. It was the EU, not the FDA, that refused to grant conditional acceptance for the Pompe Disease treatment. Fold must submit matured data.
Q2/18 Rev = 21.3mn / Expenses = 63.7mn / Cash = 73mn / Investments = ~410mn
FOLD recently bought 10 AAV programs for an upfront payment of 100mn
Migalastat Sales estimates range from 500mn to 750mn.
At a MC of 2.3 - 2.5B, it could be argued that FOLD is fully valued as a Migalastat company.
10/5 Update
Sold OPHT down to a nominal position. I would like to have stronger hands for this stock; because, I suspect it will go parabolic one day. Unfortunately, this company is managed by shysters and I can't get myself to be anything close to an investor.
FCSC
1/2 Position
No change
ATOS
1/3 Position
No change
TNXP
1/5 Position
Willing to own 1/4 Position
Closed at .63 p/s but has cash ~ 1.75 p/s
Float = 8mn
Forward Looking Event= Oct. FDA meeting to discuss way forward for failed Ph3 asset
Not optimistic about company, but pretty confident about another pop for the momo players.
10/4 Update
FCSC
Added
Now 1/2 Position
OPHT
Took some profits
Now 1/3 Position
ATOS
No change
1/3 Position
Thanks for your warm welcome. You are a gentleman and this board reflects that.
Here's my daily update.
OPHT
No Change
Full Position
PRd Conference Presentation this morning.
FCSC
No Change
1/3 Position
ACET
Sold all but tracker during first half hour of session
ATOS
I have 1/3 of a position and will not exceed 2/3 of position
Much of my position was purchased during the first hr of today's session
Idea came from Daniel Ward, who I feel is the best short-term biotech value guy on the internet
Trading below cash
A few active programs with a MC < $9mn
I'd be happy if the MC reached $10mn
From now until mid-January, I will post my 3 largest positions each day:
1 OPHT
I have a full position and won't buy anymore
Trades below cash
Legacy Ph3 data before EOY
Acquired Gene Therapy Assets that have not yet been hyped.
2 FCSC
I have 1/3 position and willing to make it full position
Will add on any weakness into mid-January.
Expecting eventual run-up into Q1/19 update.
3 ACET
I have 1/4 position and willing to make it a full position
Well-regarded value investor is averaged in at 2.65
Down on big write-down of assets.
Will now focus on profitable divisions.
Hope to buy and sell partials throughout tax loss season.
CLBS (update)
The meeting with the FDA concerning the late-stage Angina program acquired from Shire will will occur during Q4/18.
Cash runway now only extends thru Q3/19. If FDA requires a pivotal Ph3 Angina trial, a significant capital raise will have to be accomplished.
Meanwhile the Ph2 autologous T-cell treatment for Recent Onset Diabetes is enrolling. Japan has granted this program its breakthrough status.
GALT is expanding from its focus on NASH development to Oncology development with a shoestring
Early data from a combo trial with MRK 's Prembolizumab in solid tumors recently showed promise
This trial will enroll more patients
The problem is that they only have enough cash to get into Q1/19
If efforts to find a partner for their NASH program are unsuccessful, GALT will likely to go the dilute-R/S-dilute route.
GTXI = Public Personal Enrichment Scheme
During last investors presentation, GTXI said data would be released during Q4/18. This statement was made knowing that the trial was a tremendous failure. Data was released early on options expiration 9/18. Who profited from puts?
That said, this may be a tax loss sale play EOY: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=143711053&txt2find=GTXI
LPTX is focused on translational-stage molecules in cell signalling and immune oncology
The lead drug is an antibody in two Ph2 studies:
1) Esophageal and Biliary Tract Cancer in combo with Tence3ntriq
2) Monotherapy in Endometrial Cancer
The lead drug is also being studied in several Ph1 studies.
It's other clinical stage drug is an Immune Checkpoint Agonist in a
combo study with Keytruda.
The operational runway extends into Q2/20.
SANW is trying to diversify beyond Alfalfa seeds to Stevia, Sunflowers and especially Sorghum.
Their once-healthy Alfalfa seed business is in steep decline, primarily because Saudi Arabia just figured out they don't have the water resources to sustain that kind of Agriculture ( LMFAO )
Last Q, Revs declined 45% YoY.
Turns out Alfalfa might be better suited to a not-so-fucked climate. They are working with CLXT to develop drought tolerant varieties
DWDP is not optimistic. They cancelled their deal with SANW for GMO Alfalfa Germ Plasm
SANW has hired a well respected CEO with a history of successful endeavors and he has focused the company on Sorghum. Chinamen don't need no grapes, don't you know. Sorghum wine will get you just as drunk as a Riesling, besides white people will be mostly kaput as an economic force in the coming decades.
SANW has scraped the bottom of the piggy bank to make a bid for a bankrupt Sorghum seed company named Chromatin. If the bid is not successful, I doubt their is enough of a public company left to turn around
EQXFF is the Ross Beatty controlled miner that recently acquired Mesquite from NGD.
Mesquite will have synergies with EQXFF's Castle Mountain
In 2018, Mesquite has an AISC of ~1025. The mine should operate thru 2021 followed by several years of residual leaching.
Upside in the deal will be captured if exploration potential pans out.
SAND (update)
The bullish case revolves around capitalizing on non-operating assets to avoid future equity raises.
Only 20 of its 188 royalty agreements are producing.
SAND has $435mn in non-operating assets.
Potential Catalysts to unlock this value:
1) PoG. If PoG ever trends higher, SAND is one of the first stocks I would buy.
2) Hod Maden. Although SAND did not overpay for this property, the risk of Turkish turmoil made it a horrible decision that most knowledgeable investors would not have taken. Possibly being a Canadian company will help SAND avoid having this property nationalized.
MTEM is an early stage clinical oncology biotech with some gravitas in the form of important partnerships with AFMD & Takeda.
The lead program is in a Ph1-b study in non-Hodgkins Lymphoma (NHL). Some extension 1-b results are due 12/18. The Ph1-a results were presented at ASCO and were uninspiring.
MTEM has a research collaboration with AFMD to identify antibodies for MTEM's targets using the ABsieve tool.
Perhaps this approach lead to the recently announced partnership with Takeda. This partnership came with a $30mn upfront payment.
With this upfront payment, MTEM has an operational runway thru 2020.
I will not be interested in the stock until after Ph1-b NHL results are announced.
ATXI is a Fortress Biomedical company trying to get IV Tramadol approved as a post-surgical pain medication.
Presently, 80% of post-surgical patients get conventional narcotics for pain management.
Studies have shown that 1 out of 16 of these patients are at risk of Opioid addiction.
IV Tramadol is a Schedule IV drug with a far more benign risk of leading to Opioid addiction than narcotics yet more effective than IV N-SAIDs or IV Tylenol.
Ph3 results are due mid/19 and an NDA would likely be filed before EOY/19.
Cash runway could be stretched into Q1/19.
Additional capital will be required before pivotal Ph3 data is due.
LPTH makes optical sensors with a specialty in molded optics
The bullish case involves expanded markets in autonomous vehicles, 5G & IOT.
12-month backlog has increased 38%
Consensus "expected" Rev increase for 2019 = ~18%
12% of Revs come from telecom sector and this should increase in H2/19 as the 5G roll out progresses beyond pilot cities.
5G applications for LPTH's molded optics business is a high margin portion of their business
OTOH, 28% of Revs come from 3 customers. Loss of one these customers would be devastating (OCLR is a competitor)
Patent position outside of molded optics is mediocre.
XXII not only has plant science technology to grow low-nicotine tobacco, it has technology to grow cannabis with varying levels of CBDs and zero-THC
XXII discontinued selling cigarettes in the USA EOY/17.
It seems that their low-nicotine Tobacco patents may be in competition with old patents owned by large Tobacco companies. Specifically, Burley varieties of tobacco were developed with this trait many decades ago.
XXII are part owners with ACBFF of a cannabis research laboratory
Their Botantical Genetics division has developed technology for zero-THC Hemp.
It is not uncommon for Hemp farmers to grow a field of Hemp only to find out that the crop exceeds regulatory levels to be recognized as Hemp and must be disposed of.
HL is a significantly different miner than it was in 2017. Is it time to speculate on how sentiment will digest these changes?
San Sebastian mine accounted for 50% of profits in 2017. Now that the best ore has been mined, HL has had to adjust to an AISC of $17/oz Ag there.
Lucky Friday seems far from settling the labor strike; but, will employ a Remote Vein Miner to move away from drill and blast operations.
Fire Creek (recently acquired with Klondex) will replace some the cash flow from San Sebastian.
One negative that has not been adapted to is high debt. Unlike many miners, HL has not paid down debt over the last couple years.
SESN develops fusion proteins.
Its lead program combines an antibody with a cytotoxin to treat bladder cancer
Top-line Ph3 data will be available H1/19
Ph2 data in this program delivered a ~40% Complete Response rate. Preliminary Ph3 data from 5/18 was similar
The primary concern for this program is AE. 4% are life threatening.
Cash runway extends into 2020.
ICON is a brand management company with piles of debt but a chance to survive.
Stock has gone from $44 ps to 0.25 ps as the retail environment has been transformed.
Most valuable brands include Umbro, Starter, Pony, Joe Boxer, & Ocean Pacific.
WMT & TGT have switched to in-store brands. SHLD's likely bankruptcy hurts.
OTOH, the AMZN/Starter license provides hope for a way forward in the present retail environment.
OTOH Umbro has been doing very well globally
Cash = $95mn with $50mn per Q Revs.
A R/S is quite likely. Will it be worth playing?
Here are the 3 primary risks to investors:
* Debt is paid down with shares - soon and/or again in 2020 when more debt becomes current
* After a R/S, the stock still gets delisted
* Revenue decline breaches covenants.
DFFN will be the first Biotech to be sanctioned by the FDA to conduct a trial in the back of ambulances.
DFFN is planning a Ph2 study for its TSC molecule to treat Acute Stroke. The global stroke market has a TAM of $36B
TSC is also being studied to speed diffusion of drug thru solid tumors. DFFN has programs in Glioblastoma, Pancreatic Cancer & Brain Metastases.
Cash runway extends thru H2/19; but, Ph3 study(ies) will require a partnership or significant dilutive financing.
FOLD ( update )
Pompe program was set back by FDA refusal to grant accelerated review status
More clinical data is due in the Pompe program during Q4/18
Commercial efforts for the Fabry program are going reasonably well and they raised revenue guidance for the rest of the year.
Cash runway is at least thru 2020; but, FOLD has a history of raising capital whenever they can.
FCX (update)
There is constant tension between FCX and Indonesia over taxation issues.
~1/3 of Revs come from Indonesia
Some authoritative sources (Journal of Rescources, Conservation & Recycling) predict that there will be no economic Cu mines left by 2100.
Is FCX a deep value? This is one case where I will let the chart be my guide.
KDMN ( scientific backgrounder)
KDMN focus is on Roh Kinases. Roh Kinases are differentiated in their ability to regulate cytoskeletons.
Roh Kinases are referred to colloquially as either ROCK-1 and ROCK-2
ROCK-1 are active in cytoskeleton destruction throughout the body, but especially in liver, spleen and kidney.
ROCK-2 are active in brain and muscle development and stabilization.
KDO25 is KDMN's in-licensed ROCK Inhibitor that KDMN has made more selective to ROCK-2 inhibition. Theoretically, these changes have made this ROCK Inhibitor therapeutic against fibrotic diseases.
AUY may be on the cusp of improving its results significantly.
In the most recent Q, earnings were 2 cents / share on 431.5mn revs.
Operationally, AUY is entering a period of lower capital requirements and higher quality ore.
At 1400 gold, AUY would be very profitable during this period.
As for gold mining sentiment, GG may be the canary in the gold mine.
IPI will remain a healthy and profitable company while potash prices are rising.
Last Q, the COGS for potash excluding D & A was $113/ton. Net realized revenue was $254/ton
The water and oilfield services segments have also contributed high margin revenue in 2018
I will be stalking this stock during tax loss season.
VBIO Why have Perceptive Advisors accumulated 15% of this company?
The easiest answer is that low-priced biotechs with workable balance sheets and "promising" pipelines have proven to be good risk:reward situations.
Their Ph3 Hepatitis B asset will present top-line data mid/19.
This product has beeen approved in 15 countries including Israel.
Some estimate potential annual revenue for this product at $600mn.
VBIO MC = ~$130mn
Cash runway is only into H1/2019. A $150mn shelf is at the ready.
TLRA is an advertising technology company that has been carved out of TRMR
CEO is one of the founders of Vonage.
Generation Zyklon (and to a lesser extent millennials) are not that interested in TV. The challenge for advertisers is to find ways to capture their attention.
TLRA helps solve this problem with software that serves up targeted ads and helps monetize them.
After this business was carved out of TRMR, similar businesses in Australia and Canada were acquired.
Its competitors have been acquired by CMSCA & Bertelsman
Currently, OTT viewers are their largest target audience
NFLX has broken their own rule against showing advertisements to customers.
38% of their revs are generated in Q4.
* I've been accumulating this stock for the last 2 weeks and hope to make it my largest position.
CBIO is a clinical stage biotech focused on the treatment of Hemophilia trading around cash.
Data from its lead Hemophilia A or B program is expected at ASH 2018.
The advantages of this treatment over the infusion treatments are:
* Easy subcutaneous injections
* Potential for home therapy
* Fewer bleeds
* Prevention of muscle/joint damage
If approved, this treatment would compete with treatments from Shire, NVO, APVO & Sanofi. Despite, this the efficacy of CBIO's lead treatment makes 25% market share seem achievable.
AFMD signed a POTENTIALLY lucrative deal with RHHBY and spiked 220%
The deal is for development using the company's ROCK platform and does not include any of AFMDs lead programs. $96mn is front loaded into the $5B potential payout.
The lead programs hold significant value in their own rights and this deal lends substance to their prospects.
AFM13 has had promising efficacy in 2 early stage trials both as a monotherapy and a combo therapy.
Both of AFMD lead programs will have data before EOY/18. Part of this spike is based on the hope that one of these prrograms will garner an expedited path to FDA approval.
As for the RHHBY deal, it only extends the operational runway thru 2019. I think any further good news in 2018 is mostly built in.