CIO, SignalPoint Asset Management, 2008 to 2024, Retired
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Thanks Steve,
Re: Conserving Cash with Consecutive buys.........................
I let my minimum order size be a percentage of Portfolio Control, so each buy increases the size of the minimum order. That makes AIM look for a slightly lower price for the "next buy."
I also still am pretty solid on the 30 day delay between sequential buys. That helps when there's a long term bearish period.
For some years now I've also been adding 5% to the Buy Resistance (SAFE) with each sequential buy. That also forces AIM to look for a deeper discount between buys. (Then when directions change and I get my first AIM directed Sale, I revert the SAFE back to 10%)
Maybe Will can use some of these ideas as well.
Thanks again for the link,
OAG Tom
Thanks Steve,
Where did you come across Mr Hicks and his AIM interest?
OAG Tom
Ford may dump "Self-Parking" function from their fleet.
As far as I'm concerned, it's 9 years too late. I have it on my 2015 Flex and have never used it other than when the salesman demonstrated it long ago.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ford-considers-axing-car-feature-that-could-save-company-millions-per-year/ar-BB1hWnqP
OAG
Thanks!
OAG
DING DING DING DING DING!!!!!!
......and we have a new WINNER!!!!!
Grace Bay Beach, Provodenciales, Turks & Caicos!!!
One of the world's most beautiful natural wonders.
The Elves ha e fired the forge furnace to strike a new
SECRET DECODER
fore you!
Best wishes,
Tomaso Vitello
Think of the Beach Boys song, "Kokomo" and all the places mentioned. I'm one place they skipped!!!!
OAG Tomaso
Just a little north of East take plenty of provisions as it's a long sail to see the canaries on those Islands.....
OAG Tomaso
CLUE.....
A short swim south would take you to the second oldest republic in the western hemisphere. It was home to the Baby Doc at one time.
OAG Traveling Tom
Good investigative work EU,
More clues are coming.
The WINNER will receive the coveted "AIM Secret Decoder Ring"
How about a photo clue?
OAG Tomaso
Your compass took you a bit too far to the west.
From where I'll be, if I flew further South, I could speak Dutch, but that's too far.
CLUE.......
No volcanoes here.
Not a boat - but not a blimp, just another jet.
Correct general direction.
Official language is wrong, however.
CLUE....
(Or is that Clouseau???)
Pirates used to hunt Wild Boar on an island south of Vitello's destination. They would salt and smoke the pork to preserve it. The French sailors called the preserved meat "boucan" and we refer to it as Bacon. Therefore those who made and ate it were called Boucaneers. That was anglicized to Buccaneers (but not the Tampa Bay variety).
I'm sure this will help everyone's navigation skills!!!!
OAG Tomaso Vitello
CLUE....
(Or is that Clouseau???)
Pirates used to hunt Wild Boar on an island south of Vitello's destination. They would salt and smoke the pork to preserve it. The French sailors called the preserved meat "boucan" and therefore those who made and ate it were called Boucaneers. That was anglicized to Buccaneers (but not the Tampa Bay variety).
I'm sure this will help everyone's navigation skills!!!!
OAG Tom
Not St. Marten, (sp).
More like Rowan and Martin!!!
Hi Jake, Let's hope the investment world can stand it with my status change!!
Thanks,
OAG Tom
Hi Jake, Let's hope the investment world can stand it with my status change!!
Thanks,
OAG Tom
Welcome to the Latest Episode of "Where In the World Is Tomaso Vitello!!!"
Tomaso and his faithful sidekick will be "Leaving on a Jet Plane" tomorrow. Their first stop will be in the land of Ponzi Speedboats and Vice. After a short layover they'll be catching a ride on another heavier-than-air craft toward places known to explorers and pirates. Privateers stopped at their destination in the past to harvest sea salt for curing their provisions.
Tune in Daily for clues...................................
Best wishes,
OAG Tomaso Vitello
Daily volume continues to be quite high with the recent price movement.
OAG
Hi Will, Re: RMD..............
"Required Minimum Distribution"
It's the amount us old geezers have to take out of our Retirement Accounts annually. The amount is based in actuarial tables of how long we're expected to live. The idea the government has is to have us deplete our individual retirement accounts by the time we're fully depleted!!!!
OAG Tom
Here's the v-Wave histogram for this week. JDerb will be reporting the numbers here soon.
Steady 3-5 Year and the 18 Month is coming back into line.
Note the S&P500 is now at a record high along with the Dow 30 Industrials. The Nasdaq Composite still has a little work ahead to reach the late 2021 former high.
Keep your eye on the target and use careful AIM. Don't forget to compensate for prevailing winds!
OAG Tom
Hi EU, Re: Moving Averages and trading.................
Generally I use the 26 Week eMA as I find by coincidence that I'm usually disbursing shares above that line and accumulating shares below it. Along with that, another coincides with my trading comes with the Williams%R value. I'm generally disbursing shares when the W%R is above -20 and accumulating shares when it's below -80.
These give me comfort when they're in sync with my trading. My trades are still ruled generally with the Lichello AIM model.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Over 40MM shares traded so far this AM.
That's about 10X normal volume for MESA..........
Share price is now back to around the 100 Day eMA.
Amazing,
OAG Tom
Is this what they call a "Gap Up" event???
OAG Tom
That's pretty nice after market activity on the MESA shares.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/mesa-air-MESA/chart
3.6MM shares traded for the day.
Roughly a 61% gain over the previous close seen in after hours trades.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
I see I didn't post the rest of my usual portfolios as of year's end. Here they are:
International ETF Portfolio
+13.3% YOY
(17% Cash in Reserve)
10 Common Stocks Composite
+20.05% YOY
(19% Cash in Reserve)
Simple Contributory IRA Portfolio
(20% Cash in Reserve)
All finished the year with gains. Not all were at all time highs but all did well enough.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
The stock is trading in my personal "hold zone" right now. Above $56 I'll part with 10% of my shares and I'll add close to 12% more shares if it dips to around $41/share.
OAG Tom
Hi T, Re: AIM and Capital Gain Tax.........................
In general it's been my experience that after the first 12 months of AIMing in a taxable account essentially all gains will be considered "Long Term" on a FIFO basis. Most of my stocks I traded over the years the 'inventory" took about 3-5 years to move through my "equity warehouse." So, if the Tax Man is offering a discount in tax rate for long term cap gains, AIM can be very effective.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi T, Re: Value Line Model Portfolios for long term AIMing................
The two lists have several suitable candidates for AIMing. The above average dividend list may seem a bit stoggy but might offer good total return (price growth + dividend capture + profitable volatility capture). The 3-5 year list doesn't change positions very often if that makes a difference to you. Most libraries at universities and public libraries will have Value Line for your review.
Look for those stocks with the higher 3-5 year growth potential as a first filter. Next, check the BETA of those stocks you choose. The higher the better for AIM in general. BETA gives a feel for correlation of the stock price with market direction as well as a feel for amplitude of price change. So, a high BETA will generally trade in the same direction as the market but with a bit more amplitude. One of my favorite Value Line measures is on their individual stock pages in the lower right hand corner. It's labeled "Stock's Price Stability" and also helps to give a bit of personality to the issue in question. A lower number indicates higher price volatility where a higher number indicates higher stability. For instance, EXAS, a medical test maker, has a Stock's Price Stability of just 15. INTC comes in around 70 by comparison. Price Stability and BETA may help you trim these lists down a bit. Note that neither gives you any "quality" measure, however. Financial Strength, debt structure and profitability need to be looked at also.
The higher dividend stocks on Model II's list can be evaluated in similar fashion. AIM might not trade these stocks as often, but AIM always trades effectively.
Using StockCharts.com's Zig Zag graphing function can also help when viewing your stocks on a 'Weekly' basis. ZigZag can help guide you toward proper SAFE settings for your chosen stocks. If you are trying to choose between, say, INTC and AMD, if both are fundamentally sound companies, then you could use the same ZigZag setting for both and see which one has historically has more 'round trip' moves over the previous 3 years. That might offer a tie breaker for selection.
Hope this helps,
OAG Tom
Re: use of LIFO term...
This isn't in reference to taxes but to 'Round Trip' AIM trades.
The gain from where AIM did its last buy to when it signals its first sale. With original AIM the round trip gain was roughly 25% to 30%. With AIM-High, it was closer to 40%. These settings create profitable trades when they occur and are suitable for higher BETA individual company stocks but many ETFs and diversified mutual funds don't have the amplitude of price change to power the AIM engine. At least not frequently.
Sorry for the confusion.
OAG Tom
...........not that this is a surprise...............
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mesa-air-group-discloses-notice-211500302.html
Some heavy selling going on in spurts.
OAG
Hi ZG, Re: Split SAFE possibilities.......
Looking at StockCharts' view of ASG and using their Zig-Zag line to plot reversals can help find an historical sweet spot for the size of the total SAFE (Buy + Sell SAFE). I first look at the number of reversals at various Zig-Zag values and then decide on a total SAFE amount. The idea is to maximize the opportunities for AIM trading while keeping a high LIFO gain with each round trip. If you have just 2 trade opportunities in three years, for instance, with a total SAFE of 40, but you have 5 trade opportunities with a total SAFE of 30, AIM will do more trading for reasonable LIFO gains with the lower setting.
Here's ASG examples with different Zig-Zag levels:
40% Zig-Zag reversals (approximately equal to 40% total SAFE)
https://schrts.co/gqPzTsRF
Here's the same but with 30% ZZ:
https://schrts.co/PhidsgHZ
and once more at 20%, just for fun:
https://schrts.co/sfapdTyi
Note that as the size of the Zig Zag percentage drops the number of 'round trips' goes up. It's not linear and one can get a feel for what might be an optimum total SAFE might be. Generally, we're looking to maximize the number or round trips at a LIFO that gives the best overall return on volatility capture. We can set total SAFE too low and get a lot of round trips but at ever decreasing LIFO gains. If the LIFO shrinks more than the number of or round trips increases, you've passed the optimum point.
In general, I usually look at the Williams%R levels as AIM tends to trade beyond its extremes of -20 and -80. If our ZigZag peaks and valleys coincide with the W%R peaks and valleys that's usually close to optimum. In ASG's quick view, it would appear that a total SAFE of 30% would satisfy goals of reasonable LIFO and frequency of round trips. (just for fun, change the ZigZag to 25 and see what happens)
Next is to then divide the SAFE into Buy and Sell SAFE for your own comfort. If total SAFE is 30%, you could divide it into 10% Buy and 20% Sell if you would like to bias AIM toward accumulation. Reverse those settings and it will help conserve cash. Those decisions will depend upon how healthy your cash reserve is when you start. If you were starting with zero cash, you could even put all the SAFE on the Buy side and zero on the Sell side. That would put AIM in the 'distribution' mode of selling but conserving cash for deep bear markets.
Once a general total SAFE range is determined it's best to leave things alone going forward. AIM will do a good job thereafter. Changing the Split SAFE bias after the initial settings can be self defeating as those decisions might come along with emotional views of the market's future. So, Set and Forget seems to be the best thing.
Hope this helps,
OAG Tom