CIO, SignalPoint Asset Management, 2008 to 2024, Retired
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Hi Pete,
Officers and directors own ~!32% of outstanding units, too.
Skin in the Game.
OAG Tom
Good morning T, Re: EPD investing......................
Here's Value Line's take on EPD.
"Long term total return potential is also appealing."
If you're investing for dividends, getting started is the most important thing. The stock price has been in a trade range for a long time. With the exception of the Covid incident it's been between $24 and $32 since 2016. So, risking your $$$$ when it's in the middle of that trade range isn't particularly 'risky.'
Larry the Cable Guy would say, "Get 'er Done!"
Hope this helps,
OAG Tom
May's passed with not much effect on my various portfolio strategies.
Apparently the "Sell in May" crowd didn't have much influence this year.
AIM continues to give good guidance on cash utilization and inventory control.
Considering the headlines, I'd say these are holding up well.
(Cash Reserve = 16%)
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(Cash Reserve = 22%)
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(Cash Reserve = 10%)
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(Cash Reserve = 18%)
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YTD, these portfolio strategies are doing okay.
Best regards,
OAG Tom
Last August I sold some of my STKL position at $10.94 and thought we'd maybe see a bit more. It teased my next sell target but never quite got that next sell trade done.
Today I bought back 12% more shares at $6.58 to rebuild inventory and reset my 'next sell' target. I can't say I'm doing this based upon some great fundamental strength, it's just because the price is discounted so heavily from my last sale.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi T, Re: nice dividend payers..................
I've owned Alliance Bernstein's LP for years (decades) with nice total return. It pays a healthy dividend and the price amplitude is enough for me to trade some shares around the core holding. AB is the symbol. Again, as with EPD, there's a K-1 at tax time. The 52 week High to Low range is ~$46 to $31 which is enough to generate some LIFO gains if one is interested. The 7.7%/yr annual current yield is good enough to keep my happy.
It's one for you to study.
Best wishes,
OAG
Re: Schwab for long term investors..........................
I have a lot of tools in my garage. Some of them date all the way back to my great grandfather. Some are clumsy and some are handy. Some are specific to certain chores while others are more generic.
I've used and enjoyed both TD Ameritrade as well as the Schwab portal. For my way of investing and trading both work equally well. I don't use any of their 'great features' as my investing methods don't require them nor do I see any benefit for me.
I used to own Ameritrade's stock and profitably traded around my core holding until they were merged into Schwab. Now I own SCHW and profitably trade it around my core holding. So, while I understand the frustration of being forced to use a new brokerage service, I can't see that bashing Schwab is accomplishing very much.
I suggest finding the right tool for the work you do. Schwab is a fine tool for those of us who trade and invest for longer than a single heart beat. It's rare that I don't hold a stock at least 3 to 5 years. Many I've held for decades. I've never looked at SCHW's portal to trade short term, so don't know if there are proper channels for that sort of thing. If not, then there must be other tools out there for that type of activity.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
These are tricky trading days. I've seen quick pops to near my price targets only to watch the prices fade away.
GTC Limits seem to be the way to go while we debate budget ceilings, wars and other non-related stuff.
My "technology" sector ETF is close to a sale today with a ~29% LIFO gain attached if it triggers.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Thank you Clive, Re: DOW:Gold Ratio...................
Just for fun I tried a shorter history of the SPY and IAU to see if it would be useful as a ratio. Here's how it looks for about three years:
The pairing in StockCharts can be done by putting in both tickers with a colon in between. It automatically calculates the ratio. So, in the end of this image, the value is 11.05. That's down from around 13.50 back at the peak of late 2021. It looks like the Covid low point was around 8.00 to give it some range.
Using the Quick AIM Calculator and starting with a PC of 10,000 and an average price/share of $10.75 that would give us a starting position of 930 shares. The calculator says we'd buy or sell 93 shares at $8.96 or $13.44 - both of which are within the calculated SPY:IAU ranges. If one had been watching the share price and put in AIM orders at those prices, both would have had fills.
Now, using the ranges of $8.00 and $13.50 we get a Buy of $1816 or 227 shares and a Sell of $1300 or 96 shares at those inflection points. So, AIM would have come close to hitting those inflection points and made the user smile.
I very much appreciate your efforts in this regard. I like the idea of pairing something like gold with a stock market index. I am helping a friend with a modified permanent portfolio of a stock etf, gold etf and a REIT etf. Initially I'd suggested just rebalancing when the three positions were heavily out of sync.( the three positions started as equal at 30% plus 10% cash buffer to use for the rebalancing efforts. Any time any of the three components fell too far away from 30% they would be supplied with some additional money to bring them back to 30%. The same would be true but in the opposite direction if they exceeded 30% by too much.
With your study in mind, I considered pairing the gold ETF with the Vanguard's REIT ETF, VNQ. It also looks to have shifted enough to generate some AIM trades. The ratio varied as follows:
March, 2000 $1.79
March, 2009 $0.78
August, 2011 $1.02
March, 2020 $1.85 (Covid low)
Dec, 2021 $3.20
Now $2.17
Hi J,
As a proxy for the airlines JETS is moving upward as well. It was up over 4% earlier today.
It appears to me that MESA is more the 'victim of circumstances' rather than a poorly run business. That said, they need to bring the earnings back up and make their quarterly statements look a bit prettier.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Another nice up-tick today.
OAG
Nice move upward today. A 4% gain on JETS.
My MESA shares are also up nicely.
OAG
Hi Clive,
I read today a quote that stated
"It's easy to find a difficult solution but difficult to find an easy solution!"
The Dow/Gold ratio appears to be the easy solution.
Thanks,
OAG Tom
I'll let 10% of my position go when the price/share hits $61+.
Best wishes,
OAG
Yep, The common stock has surged 20+% for the AM.
OAG
Hi EU,
MESA Fundamentals as of today:
Price/Book Value = 0.1735
Price/Sales = 0.1570
Book Value/Share = $8.24
Market Cap = $57.8MM
Short Interest Float = 2.44%
52 Week Low = $1.03/sh
Who's gonna step up and buy MESA? It's a bargain by appearance.
OAG
Hi Bomber, Re: CRSP big move...................
Here's my response:
I let 10% of the position go yesterday which helps rebuild the cash cushion I carry for CRSP. That carried a tidy 44% LIFO gain with it and still leaves me with more shares than I started with a year ago. There's more cash on hand now, too.
Overall, the holding including the cash reserve is up 35% since the start by trading around the core investment. The price/share is up 25% since that start.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
We sat there before
before the view had changed much
Now a parking lot
(inspired by Joni Mitchel)
Thanks JC,
That would put CRSP at about a 10x gain from recent prices. That would be acceptable.
I've only had CRSP in my 'sandbox' portfolio for a year now. In that time I've trimmed the position 7 times and added to it 5 times. (small incremental trades around the core position)
The holding is currently around break-even but share count is now around 17% more than when I started a year ago. If the Roller Coaster continues to go up and down, I plan on sticking with the Ride toward that 2030 goal.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
It does look like a pretty strong Open might be in the works for SCHW today.
OAG
Hi P,
Almost 20% of WOLF's stock float is currently shorted. That's a bunch.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi P,
Almost 20% of WOLF's stock float is currently shorted. That's a bunch.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi Toof, Re: Big Days for Some Stocks!
My Generac Holdings jumped up yesterday and made it within pennies of my GTC Sell Limit. However, the market gods didn't see fit to push my order to the top of the pile.
Maybe today,
OAG Tom
Hi C, Re: SCHW and trading around a core position..................
No, I don't use Stop Loss orders on any of my portfolios. Since my average holding time is usually in excess of 4 years there is usually capital gain involved in selling out of a position. So, while I might be stopping the value drop, I usually would be inviting a capital gain event. In the case of the SCHW shares there's about a 45% LT and ST gain overall if I were to sell now. I don't need the tax liability.
Instead I usually average down in share price at intervals. However, the cash reserve isn't a bottomless drawer. My last purchase of SCHW shares was at $49 and that pretty much exhausted the reserves of cash I'd held for that position. To conserve cash I usually only make one consecutive buy in a 30 day time window. That usually helps with Falling Knife Syndrome.
On that latest purchase I'll harvest a LIFO gain if the price rises to around $61.
Best wishes,
Hi Toof, Re: your Purchasing Dept activity.................
It looks like your HASI seeds are germinating quickly. Up 5% today!
Congratulations,
OAG
Someone lit a fire under GNRC's stock price this AM. There has been a relatively significant short position on GNRC for some time. Maybe that is beginning to unwind now since May started.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi Will,
So far the Equity/Cash ratio has averaged 78/22 when I exclude the first few entries. Back at the start each growth fund buy (or lack of one) was a pretty big change, so it showed investment to be lower than the approximate 80/20 mix. After the account had some substance, the ratio stabilized. (the fund is pretty high priced at over $200/share)
With the market decline in 2022 the ratio shifted to being above 80% invested for the last 12 months. So far this has worked out well.
Decades ago I'd set up Twinvest accounts for my kids' college $$$. Those were traditional Twinvest accounts (I'd not thought of making it more aggressive). Those did well but became cash rich over the '90s.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Here's April's U.S. Sector Review numbers:
S&P 500 GIC sectors Price Change % Chg % YTD Chg
Communication Services 198.35 1.06 0.54 24.46
Consumer Discretionary 1152.42 -0.43 -0.04 14.61
Consumer Staples 807.20 3.89 0.48 3.60
Energy 655.20 9.52 1.47 -2.55
Financials 551.42 6.47 1.19 -3.22
Health Care 1555.39 12.59 0.82 -1.90
Industrials 846.11 7.74 0.92 1.77
Information Technology 2649.95 28.17 1.07 22.00
Materials 507.06 5.67 1.13 3.58
Real Estate 236.74 2.71 1.16 1.88
Utilities 350.26 -0.68 -0.19 -2.29
Good morning Will, Re: Twinvest model changes for my contributory IRA........
I decided to dial up the aggressiveness of the Twinvest formula a bit. Instead of the Code being based upon the periodic addition being divided by 4 (creates an initial 75%/25% ratio of invested $$ vs cash $$) I divided by 5. That makes the initial invested side = 80% with cash being just 20%. Not as much reserve and a bit more aggressive.
Now that cash is starting to throw off some yield, the cash side will start to contribute a bit to the overall performance. That wasn't true when I started this thrift account.
With the Twinvest Code being a bit more aggressive, I figured there was a better chance in a market decline of tapping the cash being held and a greater chance of becoming fully invested. That's not happened yet, but nobody's sure what the Big Bad Bear will do next.
Current overall investment ratio is 83% Stock Fund, 17% Cash Reserve.
Hope this helps,
OAG Twinvest Tom