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I agree, NNVC sold the shares in the first place to have the funds to do clinical trials. Nothing else matters.
BTW, they're looking like geniuses now having sold that last batch of shares above $5.
Question about the Yorba interview. At about 7:36 on the first part of the interview Dr. Seymour said, "We're building our manufacturing plant... so we can start producing material for our what's known as toxicology studies to show that it's 100% safe, as we've already shown that it is but we have to do it on a larger scale..."
So, does that mean that the material for the tox studies really is being produced in the new manufacturing plant, not in the current lab as we were told earlier?
No, I simply said the complaint made for interesting reading. It made some points that I thought should be considered. I certainly never made any claims it was dispositive. Far from it, I am aware that this suit probably isn't going anywhere.
One guy is offering to sue me because in his fantasy I am in cahoots with Pump Terminator and that guy who made the lawsuit. I'm pretty sure PT isn't going to share any of his ill gotten gains with me.
I should have learned by now that anything I say that can be misinterpreted will be.
I was merely stating what the claims of the plaintiff were in that Colorado lawsuit, to wit, that funds could be diverted from NNVC to Theracour via excessive fees for the licenses or the lease. I did not mean to imply that I believed that. That's just what the plaintiff is saying. If you want to argue this any further take it up with him.
Yes, I could have said things better in my earlier post.
I can agree with this. I don't know how practical it will be to merge Theracour and Nanoviricides but it would end a source of some worries that are unique to this stock.
Ha ha ha ha! "My Group." We know who filed the lawsuit. YIDAM LTD. Whether they have any connection at all to "Pump Terminator" I have no idea.
What I do know is that none of them have any connection to me.
I'm curious to know what the charges will be. Commenting upon a publicly known lawsuit after the price has gone down, due to a hit piece written by some other guy for Seeking Alpha? When did that become illegal?
Your lawyer will be appalled to learn that I am long this stock, and lost a lot of money today (on paper). So, are you really paying your lawyer a lot of money to find out that I suck as an investor?
See the lawsuit for the particulars.
Point out any problematic issues with a company and as sure as night follows day people who are long the stock will accuse you of being part of a conspiracy to profit by shorting the stock.
Dr. Feelgood changed his name to Big Kahuna. He's still around.
The "diversion" is done by charging excessive prices for licensing and leasing deals, when NNVC is in no position to refuse.
Again, the efficacy of nanoviricides are irrelevant to the claims in the suit, so claims about how many rodents have been cured of this or that disease are beside the point.
The truth is that the relationship between Theracour and NNVC has long been one of the most problematic issues for this stock. Most start up biotechs at least own their core intellectual property. NNVC does not, it purchases licenses to the IP from Theracour.
Those of you hoping for another high volume day have gotten your wish.
(Ducks.)
Well, strictly speaking Diwan's financial interest is to leave enough money to NNVC to keep it going as a viable concern but to divert any excess money to Theracour. That is what his ownership in the two companies indicates. So it is simply not true that Diwan has nothing to gain with a bad (for NNVC) but good (for Theracour) lease deal.
You haven't answered my question. According to the lawsuit, the cost of the lease hasn't even been determined yet, and won't be until NNVC has finished building out the facility, at which point Theracour will have NNVC over a barrel, able to get any price it demands. Can anybody here confirm whether that claim is true or false?
Do you take issue with the claim that Dr. Diwan makes money overall by diverting money from NNVC to Theracour? If not, doesn't that create an incentive for Dr. Diwan to create deals that are beneficial to Theracour at the expense of NNVC?
I'm not sure which half truths you are referring to. Which specific claims made in the lawsuit do you believe are false or misleading?
One can simultaneously believe that NNVC has technology that will cure terrible viral diseases and also that there is a severe conflict of interest between Theracour and NNVC that has proven to be detrimental to non-insider shareholders. The lawsuit is about the latter issue.
Well, there already is a lawsuit, referenced in the Seeking Alpha article. It's here: http://www.docstoc.com/docs/document-preview.aspx?doc_id=166597866&key=undefined&pass=undefined
Nanoviricides and Anil Diwan are the defendants. It's makes for an interesting read.
We got a day closer to spring, and thus a day further from the shortest day of the year, and the temperature went down.
It should by now be obvious to all that the season of the year does not determine temperature.
The current post taper level of bond buying by the Fed ($65 billion a month) is extraordinarily high by any standards other than those of the past couple of years. Let's see what happens to yields when the Fed sells off its bonds. Right now it's still adding to the pile.
And I never said that the Fed primarily controls long rates. Its policies have bigger effects on short term bonds than on long term bonds. For long term bonds investors might see the tapering as evidence that there will be less long term inflation (due to less money printing) and thus accept a lower yield.
The Fed now owns more treasury bonds than any foreign nation, including China or Japan. It astounds me that you believe that the current biggest purchaser of treasury bonds has no effect on the price. Indeed, if its purchases don't affect the price, why hell is the Fed buying treasury bonds at all? Why doesn't it just taper to 0, right now?
I have a toxicity testing question.
Let us assume that the tox tests on Flucide get completed and show no significant toxicity, which I and most of the other people here see as the most probable result.
Would this in any way speed up the tox testing of other nanoviricides, or would they still have to go through the full battery of tests that Flucide is going through?
If I were buying NNVC on margin would I be stupid enough to do that with a broker who is going to increase the margin requirement to 100% as soon as the price gets at or below $5 -- a price level that NNVC has been at very frequently over the past 5 months? Would anyone else be that stupid?
I think you protest the Evil IB Margin Requirement overmuch. I suspect it actually has a negligible effect on NNVC's stock price.
Yup, in trading those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk. Hundreds of people are trying to sell newsletters, books, and trading system based on methods which, if they ever worked, don't work today. Meanwhile the quant fund Renaissance Technologies racks up billions of dollars for its owners every year and the people there never say a word about how they do it.
If a successful trading method becomes generally known it ceases to be successful, because when large numbers of people use it they push prices in a way that make it no longer work.
I have yet to see a stock chart that someone couldn't explain as being a result of evil market makers or evil insider trading.
Well, as I already said in an earlier post testing in dogs is a standard part of toxicity tests. It's not some newfangled thing that NNVC pulled out of the blue.
There could be partnerships to work on Denguecide or HIVcide. But I think such arrangements will be much more likely after Flucide gets successfully through the phase IIa trials. Then the pharmaceutical world will know that this stuff is for real.
The US government has no way to fund QE other than by creating more money. QE means the Fed is buying treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities with newly "printed" money (actually just bits on some banks' hard drives). How else would it pay for them? If the government had increased tax revenues it wouldn't use the cash to buy bonds. It would simply issue fewer new bonds as debt. Right now 20 cents of every dollar spent by the federal government comes from issuing more debt. So fat chance of there ever being a surplus to buy bonds with.
None of this has much to do with NNVC, unless the government manages to screw up so badly that the wheels fall off civilization. I don't doubt that our politicians are doing their best to achieve that end.
It will probably not surprise my readers to hear that I am not a party animal. If this stock works out I will take a long vacation and do some hiking in the Rockies.
I agree that there's nothing for NNVC investors to do but wait. Nanoviricides seems to be moving as quickly as it can right now. The next 18 months for this stock will either be very bad or very good. The one thing I feel confident about -- in the summer of 2015 you won't see the stock price at $5. Either we will see smoking craters where our brokerage accounts once stood or most of you will be partying in Hawaii.
As for Fed actions and the short term movement of the market -- forget about it. If I could predict that stuff I'd be making millions trading S&P futures. If there's a market crash it will probably take NNVC down with it on the short term. People who want a larger position should see that as a buying opportunity, because none of that will matter in the long term for this stock.
Make us both happier -- stop reading my posts.
Testing in dogs is pretty standard in tox tests. Testing in kangaroos and chimpanzees is not.
The tox tests in humans are called phase 1 trials.
Obviously nobody is here to lose money in the stock. I am long myself (despite what Big Kahuna may think) because I see it as a gamble worth taking. But a gamble it remains.
NNVC has ample evidence that Flucide works in rodents. The mechanism of action makes it more likely that it will work in other animals, including humans. But reality has a way of surprising people who think they know something that they've never really tested out.
Did I say that luck was a problem? Every scientist hopes to get lucky! Nanovirides got lucky when they discovered their micelles could kill viruses without needing a toxic payload. Echo objected to my calling NNVC a lottery ticket, apparently thinking there is some grand distinction between "science" and "luck", when any sort of unknown due to lack of current knowledge has to be dealt with probabilistically.
My view remains that NNVC is a lottery ticket, although with substantially better expectation than any ticket from a state lottery.
You are apparently unaware of how much luck is involved in doing science. More to the point, anytime there are uncertainties ahead you have to think probabilistically, regardless of whether the uncertainties are due to actual "luck", like getting a winning lottery ticket, or due to knowledge that you don't have and can only get in the future.
I fully understand how nanoviricides are supposed to work. I am also aware that not a single nanoviricide of any sort has been shown to work in a human being, or any other primate.
Even if I was 100% certain that Flucide does work in humans, I still would assign a probability of less than 90% to the success of the company Nanoviricides. Sheesh, Drs. Seymour and Diwan could get hit by a bus. An earthquake could destroy the new manufacturing plant. There could also be a Dendreon-like crash after success, if pressure to cut the costs of health care force NNVC to offer Flucide at much lower prices than planned. That won't hurt the nimble traders who get out on the initial spike, but it will burn anyone who plans to hold for the long term expecting more antivirals to be developed.
Any number of small tech companies have technology that provably works but failed for any number of business reasons. It's in the nature of businesses of this sort that they have a substantially greater probability of failure than 10%.
BTW, "small biotech in business for many years with no revenues and no drugs as far as clinical trials" does not belong in the same sentence as "90% probability of success".
That's why I give NNVC a 1 in 5 chance of success rather than a 1 in 20 chance of success, despite their long history of failing to meet their own deadlines.
People who are long on this stock, like the readers of this board, naturally encourage people who say something positive about NNVC. Those who point out that this stock is still a lottery ticket, like me, get dumped on. People like to be validated in their decisions.
Well, for people who care about the tic by tic action it looks like some buyers are finally coming in.
I agree with Puffer. The daily ups or downs are meaningful only to those few people who are actually good at trading and can guess which way the price is going to go in a few hours or days. What matters is getting to the clinical trials and what the results of those trials are.
The market based probabilities aren't based on correlations at all, false or otherwise. They're based on the definition of expected value.
If you want to say that you got a quadruple on some of your shares, sure, I have no doubt you did just that. But usually when people say they got a quadruple they mean that the shares are now priced at four times their average cost. By your measure somebody could have a quadruple, on the basis of a handful shares purchased very cheaply, while still being underwater overall, thanks to a lot of shares being purchased at a much higher price.