NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[JG36]

I fully understand how nanoviricides are supposed to work. I am also aware that not a single nanoviricide of any sort has been shown to work in a human being, or any other primate.

Even if I was 100% certain that Flucide does work in humans, I still would assign a probability of less than 90% to the success of the company Nanoviricides. Sheesh, Drs. Seymour and Diwan could get hit by a bus. An earthquake could destroy the new manufacturing plant. There could also be a Dendreon-like crash after success, if pressure to cut the costs of health care force NNVC to offer Flucide at much lower prices than planned. That won't hurt the nimble traders who get out on the initial spike, but it will burn anyone who plans to hold for the long term expecting more antivirals to be developed.

Any number of small tech companies have technology that provably works but failed for any number of business reasons. It's in the nature of businesses of this sort that they have a substantially greater probability of failure than 10%.