NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[JG36]

The market based probabilities aren't based on correlations at all, false or otherwise. They're based on the definition of expected value.

If you want to say that you got a quadruple on some of your shares, sure, I have no doubt you did just that. But usually when people say they got a quadruple they mean that the shares are now priced at four times their average cost. By your measure somebody could have a quadruple, on the basis of a handful shares purchased very cheaply, while still being underwater overall, thanks to a lot of shares being purchased at a much higher price.