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Friday, February 07, 2014 2:29:05 PM
It should by now be obvious to all that the season of the year does not determine temperature.
The current post taper level of bond buying by the Fed ($65 billion a month) is extraordinarily high by any standards other than those of the past couple of years. Let's see what happens to yields when the Fed sells off its bonds. Right now it's still adding to the pile.
And I never said that the Fed primarily controls long rates. Its policies have bigger effects on short term bonds than on long term bonds. For long term bonds investors might see the tapering as evidence that there will be less long term inflation (due to less money printing) and thus accept a lower yield.
The Fed now owns more treasury bonds than any foreign nation, including China or Japan. It astounds me that you believe that the current biggest purchaser of treasury bonds has no effect on the price. Indeed, if its purchases don't affect the price, why hell is the Fed buying treasury bonds at all? Why doesn't it just taper to 0, right now?
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