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Thanks Newsguy. I was really hoping they'd pull through for you, $H and all of us others. I had plenty of opportunities to sell, but I'm not going to look back. It's a stock that didn't work out for me. I hope it does for everyone else though!
MNGA - I sold out yesterday. Huge loss that erased all of my 2014 gains. It is funny that they put out a PR today. Here is the crazy thing. The real reason I sold out is because I haven't received a response from the CEO nor the contact I had regarding the manure sterilization unit. That might sound stupid, but when I've had emails that have gone unreturned for ~1 month, when back in the late summer I was getting responses almost immediately, that was too worrisome for me to want to continue holding.
Good luck to anyone still in, and to anyone that jumps in at what might have been a double bottom.
Thanks. I knew they had ~$300M in debt, and maybe I posed my question incorrectly to Naomi. By referring to what debts need to be paid in Q1, I intended to get an answer on all debts and liabilities.
For the liabilities that you mentioned, do you know when the payments are due for those? I guess that's really what I'm trying to figure out. If their liabilities aren't due in 2015, or if they are due in the small portions that Naomi eluded to in her email response, then I think Banro has more time to get this financing deal worked out than what we think.
The volume has only been about 2x the 3 month average. It's definitely been better, just not quite what we need for a big move to the high teens or .20's.
You are right. We don't know that they need $120M at all, and if they do need it, they certainly don't need it all right away. I emailed Naomi just a few days ago specifically asking about debt in Q1. Her response broke out what they need in Q1, but she also gave me info on what they'd start paying on this year.
Below (in bold) is exactly what she sent me regarding their debt. By my math, they need ~$11M in Q1. I would imagine they can get that from gold sales (if needed). Also, in looking at these numbers, Q2 looks manageable since they don't have their bond interest payment. Q3 is where things could get interesting, as they have the large bond payment due among some other things kicking in, but still adding those up is only $15M.
I agree 110% that they can renegotiate terms, but in looking at the debts below, I believe the money they're trying to raise is only partially to pay off their debts...the rest is to put the finishing touches on Twangiza, and to bring Namoya up to designed capacity.
Here is an overview of debt and repayment terms for 2015:
BCDC loan – approx. $4.5 million – making monthly payments of $500,000, ending October 2015 (so, $1.5 million in Q1)
Rawbank loan – approx. $1 million – now paying $125,000/month (so, $375,000 in Q1)
Ecobank loan - $15 million – paying only interest right now. Beginning May 2015, will make 4 quarterly payments of $3.8 million into Q1 2016.
Gramercy liquidity backstop - $35 million + accruing interest. Making no payments now but will start making interest payments (at least) in August 2015 (roughly $500,000/month).
Bond interest payments - $8.7 million due February 28, 2015 and Aug 30, 2015
Here is the post from JJ that has the link in it
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=109671923
Well, not sure what's up. Maybe a short attack, maybe something real. I see on Orion's that JJSeabrook posted a link with a file that looks like the Navy has chosen not to use MagneGas. What was odd, was as I read through that pdf link, and it appears that the Navy stopped testing back in April and sent the remaining gas back to the company. I find it conflicting though that in the last 10-Q, the company notes they are still waiting to hear from the Navy.
Anyway, I'm not experienced enough yet to see through the BS on attached files, etc. That file may be fake for all I know.
Anyway, the AH's action was a little over 40k in volume, but it looked like a dump going on. The 40k is small, but we've barely been trading over 100k each day. Just not sure what to do, but I guess if I see guys like you, Newsguy, etc, dumping, then I should probably cut my losses too (just wish I would've done it in 2014 for tax purposes).
$oldier - Are you still in MNGA? What do you think about today's AH's action? Seems like something bad is up.
MNGA - I just emailed the CEO. We'll see what I get back, as he has always been quick to respond in the past. Right now I'm not thrilled to see the AH's dumping. 42k shares may not seem like a lot, but when we've barely been trading 100k in a day, that's a lot to me. Especially since every share has gone off in the low .60's.
MNGA - Interesting. This wouldn't surprise me, and I've been carefully considering dumping my position and just taking my loss.
What I find very interesting here is that it notes that the unused gas was returned to the vendor, and testing was stopped. That was in mid-April 2014 (see page 28-29)! That means that MagneGas has known the Navy contract was a dead deal since then, yet in their 10-Q from November 13th, the paragraph titled "Navy" says they are still awaiting response.
I have no idea what's going on, but I'm half interested in contacting the SEC in regards to their 10-Q and let them investigate. Something is very wrong here between the link you posted, and what is in the 10-Q over 6 months later. Below is the section titled "Navy" from their November 10-Q.
Navy
The U. S. Navy has been working with us to explore both the use of MagneGas? for metal working and the use of the Plasma Arc Flow system for liquid waste processing. The National Center for Manufacturing Sciences, a testing contractor for the U.S. Navy, completed testing of MagneGas? as an environmentally-friendly alternative for major metal cutting projects, particularly to reduce emissions during the breakup and recycling of retiring vessels. The final written report compared seven methods and gases for metal cutting to find the lowest opacity and showed MagneGas? as one of the only two methods with positive results. The Company has developed a gas without Carbon Monoxide to meet the Navy standards for this project. On November 1, 2013 the Navy accepted the specifications of this gas and requested onsite testing which occurred in December 2013. The Company has provided the Navy pricing on fuel and is awaiting response. Due to the slow response time, the Company has hired two independent consultants with military backgrounds to assist with the project.
I am confident that we can put any dilution talk to rest. This is the latest I received from Naomi, and I agree, dilution at this share price makes no sense at all.
At this point, there is no discussion regarding an equity offering. At the current share price, an equity offering wouldn’t bring in the funds we would like to have to go forward this year. Forward gold sales make much more sense.
In reviewing their debts and interest payments due, it appears they need ~$11M in this first quarter of 2015.
Really? Record production numbers, and down into the .12's? Pretty good volume too through only a half-day of trading. This is crazy.
Maybe I should have said "Mark this post"
Take that into account with the fact that Banro had a great Q3, what if Q4 is going to be even better? What if Q4 is significantly better? Then does Banro really need that $41M?
Does anyone know how to find when data was updated on particular sites? Was looking at InvestorsHub and FinViz, and each of them show BAA to have 70% and 57.10% institutional ownership, respectively. Last I checked, Nasdaq was showing around 26%.
Those are 3 really different numbers, so I'd like to know how these sites come up with them, and how often they are updated.
Happy New Year! May 2015 be a prosperous year for all of us followers on Vlispxpert's Underground.
The same to you. I hope it's green for all of us in whatever stocks we are holding.
I wasn't ignoring your comments on the big blocks, and that's why I didn't respond directly to those. I was simply saying that the pps was just barely in the green by the skin of it's teeth all day. Second, BAA's closing price always seems to be painted one way or the other. You pointed out the 1k shares in the last few minutes that would have made a red day, I pointed out the 25k+ other shares that would have made a green day.
As for the big blocks being dumped, I didn't respond to those because who knows what those really are? My hunch, and my hunch only, is that these blocks that people bought on the high volume days of Friday and Monday, and they were in for a short bang for their buck, they didn't get it, so they got out. That's my guess.
BAA no doubt finished green by the skin of its teeth, but it really didn't trade much higher than .134 all day. Also, I think you need to go back and re-evaluate the last 10 minutes of trading. In the last 10 minutes (including the trade(s) that went at 15:49:54) almost all of the shares went off at .1349. There were 1,000 shares dumped at 15:57:13 for .1313 which would have closed BAA in the red for the day.
So I guess I'm going to worry more about the 25k+ shares that went off in the last 10 minutes that would have kept BAA in the green, more than the 1k that someone dumped in the last few minutes to try to close it in the red.
I've since closed my L2, but I'm also pretty sure those .1349's were all on the ask, so someone was buying at the very end of the day.
Has anyone tried to contact Gold Holding lately? I recall that one user had posted they had called and talked to someone a while back, but I don't remember who that was. I emailed Gold Holding a couple of weeks ago, but I have heard nothing back. I just sent another email tonight, so we'll see where that gets me. Gold was over $1300 when this agreement was initially announced, then had dropped to the $1200 range when Gold Holding "sweetened" the deal for the extra 500 ounces. The next day (after that 11/4 PR) gold nose-dived. Maybe at that point Gold Holding was looking to sweeten their deal even more?
My emails to Banro have been returned within 1-3 days by Naomi. While her email responses lead me to believe the hold-up is on the Gold Holding side, maybe Banro is the ones dragging their feet? Does anyone know what they needed the $41M for at Twangiza anyway? I thought we were good to go there? Take that into account with the fact that Banro had a great Q3, what if Q4 is going to be even better? What if Q4 is significantly better? Then does Banro really need that $41M?
As for Namoya, what is all of the $80M needed for? In the last response I received from Naomi, she said that none of that $80M in funding was needed for the changes to bring Namoya to commercial production by adding the agglomeration drum. She said that Banro has the money they need to make the changes they need, and that those changes are underway.
My final research of the night was just to do a quick check of other junior miners to see what their institutional ownership was. I checked 5 or 6 of them, and BAA's 26% Institutional Ownership appears to be right in line with other junior miners. Yes, it's lower than it once was, but it isn't 0%.
Yeah, regarding their listing, that is something I've always wondered about too, but it never seems to be an issue. Being on the AMEX has something to do with it I know, but I don't know what all criteria go into what stocks stay listed, versus which ones end up getting the boot.
Yeah, Inst Ownership is down to 26.4%. I'm hoping after the new year that maybe some of those folks will start buying back in. I feel that another solid Q, and/or news that their financing deal is complete will get this back into the .20's. Hopefully I get both. LOL.
Just curious if you still hold any BAA or not? I know the last run up into the .20's you had sold most (if not all), but I guess I had thought that you bought back again around .15ish.
I still have my shares (85k now). I've been waiting for a PR announcing the closing of their financing deal with Gold Holding. I've been happy that they haven't had to dilute, and I haven't heard anything of an R/S. The problem I would see with an R/S is that they would have to do at minimum a 10/1, and that only takes the pps into the $1.30 range at best. Their Q4 numbers should be out on (or around) January 10th. I'm hopeful for another profitable Q, and I'm also hopeful that we'll get an update on Namoya that it is now running at (or near) the planned capacity.
Vlisp - You mention BAA, but you posted about Barrick Gold suspending operations. Just wanted to make sure the board was clear.
Thanks! There are a couple of local shops that I plan on paying a visit to in the next week or so. I've been setting some money aside to get into the physical market, but my stock trading has intrigued my wife, but she doesn't really care for the risk. I told her that I felt putting some money into physical silver, and maybe even some gold, would be a safe bet over the long haul.
With all the pre-1965 dimes, quarters and halves, do you just shop around to see if you can find them for ~$1.50 or less over spot? I was looking at the JM Bullion site again and see they sell mixed bags of pre-1965 90% coins. Unfortunately, it looks like their cost averages out to be ~$2.50 over spot from today's close.
I'm still curious too that if I buy now, and say silver runs up to the high $40's and I want to sell, do I just go unload these coins at a local coin and bullion shop?
Yeah, it does seem a little odd that the error would occur...especially considering that (to our knowledge anyway) the shares outstanding hasn't changed, so why would finviz need to make any modifications to their numbers?
An email to Naomi would get this question answered. Also, I'm not sure if there is any sort of contact info on the finviz site, but they should be able to answer that too if there is a contact email listed.
I checked Nasdaq and Yahoo, and they still have the shares outstanding at 252M. My thought is that what is on finviz is an error, as I don't think it's possible to have more shares in the float than the total shares outstanding.
$BAA is awaiting the closing of their financing deal with gold holding. Even at their current pps, they are trading with market cap lower than the $41M they will receive upon closing of the Twangiza financing deal. I'm just happy at this point that I loaded 52k shares on Tuesday.
$BAA is blowing up this morning.
And now the bid is back. Not sure why it disappeared from my L2 for a period of time.
That bid at .1236 either expired, or was canceled. Not seeing it on the L2 anymore, but not enough volume that would've taken the remaining 140k + shares that remained.
And of course the flip side of that is if someone really wants shares and slaps the ask for 157100, where does that take us?
That's a good question. I have no idea, and honestly haven't looked into Gold Holding other than to find the contact info to send an email.
I received a very similar response from Naomi in an email I received yesterday. I even gave her a chance to throw Gold Holding under the bus, but she didn't. I'm guessing the Gold Holding is delaying and trying to sweeten the deal on their end...which they have already done once. We shall see.
An email I sent the same day to IR at Gold Holding has not yet been returned.
Thanks Matt, I'll check them out!
Matt - Speaking about oil plays, are there any you currently hold or do you have some on watch? I know from your recent posts you've become a little bearish on NADL. I took my 20% there, but am always looking for the next one to jump into.
TVIX thoughts for tomorrow?
Matt, your opinion on IMRS if not in?
I don't think I want to buy now just short of the 50dma, wondering if there will be a .27 gap fill, or if not, maybe I should buy on a 50dma break?
Thank you for the feedback.
Can I ask, if you buy, are you mostly buying smaller size bars and/or coins, or do you buy larger bars?
My focus right now is primarily going to be on silver, and my mind is going right to 100 oz bars. I kind of read through their FAQ's and it gave some reasons as to why smaller bars might be more preferred, but honestly, I wouldn't expect to sell this silver for 7-10 years, maybe longer.
I am a little curious though that when the time comes to sell it, where would you take it to to sell it? It's probably a lot easier to unload smaller size bars, than it is to unload 100 oz bars.