You are right. We don't know that they need $120M at all, and if they do need it, they certainly don't need it all right away. I emailed Naomi just a few days ago specifically asking about debt in Q1. Her response broke out what they need in Q1, but she also gave me info on what they'd start paying on this year.
Below (in bold) is exactly what she sent me regarding their debt. By my math, they need ~$11M in Q1. I would imagine they can get that from gold sales (if needed). Also, in looking at these numbers, Q2 looks manageable since they don't have their bond interest payment. Q3 is where things could get interesting, as they have the large bond payment due among some other things kicking in, but still adding those up is only $15M.
I agree 110% that they can renegotiate terms, but in looking at the debts below, I believe the money they're trying to raise is only partially to pay off their debts...the rest is to put the finishing touches on Twangiza, and to bring Namoya up to designed capacity.
Here is an overview of debt and repayment terms for 2015:
BCDC loan – approx. $4.5 million – making monthly payments of $500,000, ending October 2015 (so, $1.5 million in Q1)
Rawbank loan – approx. $1 million – now paying $125,000/month (so, $375,000 in Q1)
Ecobank loan - $15 million – paying only interest right now. Beginning May 2015, will make 4 quarterly payments of $3.8 million into Q1 2016.
Gramercy liquidity backstop - $35 million + accruing interest. Making no payments now but will start making interest payments (at least) in August 2015 (roughly $500,000/month).
Bond interest payments - $8.7 million due February 28, 2015 and Aug 30, 2015
