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>> taste AE of paxlovid
That's like the number1 complaint I see people have in social media about the drug. Anyone has real life experience on the taste?
a partnership on with JNJ on the therapeutics side?
Don't think a buyout would happen anytime soon, don't think the parties can agree on a price with such the failed launch. Maybe next year.
That’s what I see too. Pretty much all of the negative comments are about pricing. Over time, injectors will adjust their price as competition emerges but hopefully, $RVNC has strategies in place to speed up the transition
Reason for Q4 to be low? I wonder if it's because $RVNC lowered their price, but injectors didn't lower their price to consumer right away. So price is lower, but lowered price isn't as impactful as expected.
They will upgrade soon enough when things start to look better throughout the year.
Many don't realize most analysts are actually less than 50% right on their calls.
And now GS - target price reduced to $8 from $30.
It’s fine. I have patience. With couple bad news out of the way, the odd here even for short term trade is compelling anyways
I am going to take another advice from Munger.
Take a big swing when an opportunity comes.
I think it’s a real possibility that $RVNC sales will cause a billion mark in 3 to 5 years
>>It better be conservative if they have any chance to become cash flow positive (ebitda) sometime in 2025.
Agree, if you assume OPEX of ~300mm in 2025 (should be higher as they should be fully staffed then), to be cash flow break-even in 2025, they need 450mm sales assuming 70% margin... how can they go from 280mm to half a billion in a year?
EV is ~800M now, even 280M revenue makes it reasonably cheap.
Emannow - any tidbit from JPM conference? Thanks in advance
That's why I agree that they've lowballed their 2024 guidance by quite a bit.
If you assume OPEX of ~300mm in 2025, to be cash flow break-even in 2025, they need 450mm sales assuming 70% margin... how can they go from 280mm to half a billion in a year?
TD Cowen already did. Downgraded from $45 to $25. The stock is cheap, it will take more time to reflect its true value.
"With preliminary, unaudited cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of approximately $250 million as of December 31, 2023, and anticipated revenues and expenditures, management projects that the company will be funded to cash flow break-even and expects to reach positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2025. "
I am not worry about secondary at the moment.
Q4 is strongest quarter so if the guidance is better than what you suggested. It’s by no mean great but I think we are getting more than we paid for with 8 bucks a share.
I expect some recovery in share price next couple weeks. The key for me is the company still believe it is on track to break even 2025 and its blockbuster potential
Nice trading. I could have the same but can’t talk myself into selling at 8 with 280mm sales. I see mid teen share price with that guidance
Well stupid me
It’s a moot point. q4 and 2024 guidance are highly correlated anyways
The 2024 sales guidance of at least 280mm is actually not bad compared to current EV IMO.
I was hoping for 350mm myself.
But 280mm with 5x sales to EV multiple should still get us mid teen share price later this year.
Will be far from all the time high I have hoped for.
Buying today
I think it’s clear that the price cut didn’t get to the consumers as quick as some of us hope.
It’s 280mm. I was hoping for better numbers obviously. But 280mm isn’t bad, $RVNC is trading at less than 3x revenue
Q4 number will give us a better view on how the new strategy is working
It’s not about one quarter of sale per sec, it’s the first full quarter with new strategy so it’s significant
The beauty of buying $ENTA for 12 bucks is the market is not only valuing its pipeline as big fat zero, the market is actually giving you couple hundreds millions to take the pipeline.
I think 235 is not dead. It can't be dead as long as PFE still making billions in sales with its probably inferior Covid drug.
But at current pps, I can afford to be completely wrong on many things and still not losing much money. If somehow, the pipeline worth more than zero, I will more than double or triple my original investment. You can't get much better than that.
up 30% will bring us to $11, under a billion market cap. That would still make $RVNC undervalued, average peer multiple is ~5x with lower growth prospect... $RVNC 2024 sales should be close to 350-400mm? Go figure.
Agree, I think it's important as well. Many analysts were concerned price cut will not help grow the volume much (i.e. ultimately lowering total sale figures down the road). If $RVNC can show volume growth will more than offset price set, it would eliminate those concerns.
there is speculation that they will seek a commercials partner for therapeutics. Would be interesting move, they can get some cash upfront and lower their initial cash burn if they do so. But given we are 6 months away from its launch.. it guess the chance of it happening is getting lower and lower.
The lawsuit likely will be end up as a big nothing burger. It would be very unlikely and stupid for $RVNC to get caught with hard evidence that proved that they have used the trade secrets. And $RVNC's approval and rollout process is nothing but smooth.
Agree it's frustrating. But if the sale uptick is as good as some mentioned here. Share price will follow in due course.
Yesterday it takes 752,300 shares to move the price up.. today's early drop was based on mere 30k shares. Somehow is recycling the shares like no tomorrow. Cash + Royalty worth 20 bucks, We get paid 9 dollars for the assets.
Just the net cash + 45% royalty alone translates to $20 per share for ENTA.
Its COVID drug is not dead as PFE's still make billions in sale.
It just too interesting given the stock still trade like the drug isn’t working
Hope insiders could step up and get some shares to boost confidence
The fundamental will drive the stock price much higher eventually. When a company has best products in billions dollar industry with 70 80 percent gross margin can’t be trading below 1b EV for long.
2024 predictions
1. RHA and Daxxify will continue to win market share.
2. RVNC will reach all time high later in the year
3. Short squeeze happens as buyout rumours start circulating
4. RVNC sold itself to large pharm before it actually reach positive ebitda
I think that just means it’s better
Once Daxxify just enough market share, rvnc can further improve its own margin
Low volume. 120k. Year end special.
It should at minimum trade back to cash level given the remaining royalties worth about 200mm
It’s a double from here easily
Half a billion for Daxxify plus 200 millions for RHA
600mm, 5x sales. That’s 3 billions market cap
30 bucks stock
I sure hope we will get there next year
market does not actually think from time to time.
Otherwise, you won’t have name trading at 50x sales
I have been buying
Not hard to add as it is trading so much below cash value with multiple free shots to much higher valuation.
It is one of those names that when it runs, it will run really fast
Is that why enta is trading lower and lower? ;)