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Hard to believe this stock still trade at 3s
Even if you treat the stock as options with 3 years expiration period on Daxxify working out and taking significant market share, it should trade much higher
Their market share growth is there
I think that’s already happening. The blue sky scenario here is Daxxify and RHA will become the market leader in the next few years
You can do an estimation on how much each share will worth if that happens
seems just among those willing the share their holding (couple thru PMs) ... we are holding close to half a million share among the board members. Wont be surprised to see as high as 5%+ total holdings.
>> 3% necessary for representation vote.
Could you explain what's this about?
I own a bit more and with higher cost. Have been adding here and there. Will add what next couple years bring. Worst case is a zero, blue sky scenario is many folds higher from here.
For those willing to share. How many shares do you guys own?
My capital has been adding too
It’s ugly but couldn’t resist the potential upside
And the drug IS working
Seems they are one of the subscribers to the recent offering.
Avg cost: $6.42...
0.05% of their holdings.
Hope they will average down.
30 percent for CD, right? 30 percent overall would be crazy
I think that’s because RHA was the one that did worse than their own expectations
Daxxify Q1 was better than q4 volume wise so it’s bad to begin with
The headline was a miss, 59 vs 51 actual
But the CC was actually not bad, they mentioned April and first part of May was doing well.
And sales can now focus more on cross selling and new accounts acquisition rather than just fixing the premium price issue
They actually also gave reference to last q1 q2 growth rate (which was almost 50 percent)
Too early to really tell but pps priced for much worse I think
Dew, do you see anything in the CC that warrants the sell off?
Yeah, they need about 21% per quarter to hit the 280mm guidance if we assume linear growth.
Last year, RHA revenue was 128mm, if we assume 15% yoy growth, RHA will around 147mm, leaving 133mm gap for Daxxify to fill.
Last year Daxxify sales was 84mm, they will need 60% YoY growth to get to 133mm sales. Just for discussion sake, that's 30% in next 3 quarters.
>> Do you see that happening?
Yes, I think it's do-able but I am obviously biased here. The key here is whether Launch 2.0 will have similar momentum as the initial launch. Last year, the Daxxify growth rate was 45% Q2 vs Q1 - so 30% is not a wildest dream.
Note: I am deeply underwatered here so ...
I think the market is in general very pessimistic and skeptic toward RVNC
Seems not many believe they can hit this years guidance and become cash flow positive next year
Need a few quarters of executions to turn the tide
But overall I think this will start to trade better into the Summer just because I expect most non believers would be out by now
Yes todays drop seems extreme but who know, this stock has lots of haters.
The eventual bounce will be awesome and extreme as well.
You seems to be a good bottom fisher, mind to share what other stocks you own or waiting or own?
Yes, that's exactly what I mean, you are very risk-averse investor (not a bad thing).
You assume they can't get to positive EBITDA next year even they have the better drug and they have just re-iterated their guidance.
You assume they will continue to burn cash and you assume they will have to raise in $2 pps because well, it's $3 now.
I wouldn't invest a dime in this name if I think like you do.
But obviously, I have different assumptions.
So just curious, why you keep positing here if you don't even an investment case? I almost never post on any stock board if I don't have financial interest on.
Well, what a nice way to end a week.
All the pre-earning up moves are gone in a day
Now we wait for Q2.
No one will get rock bottom price when all things are lined up. Investing in RVNC is taking on some risk, probably higher risk than many can handle. So I won’t suggest my grandma to go all in this name.
But the upside wheb things start to line up is huge.
After all, I think that’s why so many that said this name is not investable, are still hanging around here
Not like they get paid to post
It’s easy to call the shot after the fact.
I would have sold or shorted too if I knew
But at least I didn’t lie about my motive here.
I am losing money in this stock so far here but at least I am not losing my integrity here by posting lies
The problem is not many believe it now.
Fun fact is the lower street target is 1.5x the current price.
I think the market is wrong but I am the one paying for it.
Well, I didn't expect such a drop
It’s not for everyone, not recommending it for conservative ones
Things are heading into the right direction. Reaffirmed minimum 280mm sales, reaffirmed adjusted EBITA positive in 2025. Gaining market share and they haven't really execute this relaunch plan yet. Very promising, especially given how cheap the stock is.
Q1 is out.
https://investors.revance.com/investors/Press-Releases/news-details/2024/Revance-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-Provides-Corporate-Update/default.aspx
- Total net product revenue (DAXXIFY® and RHA® Collection) of $51.7 million, a YoY increase of 13%.
- DAXXIFY® net revenue of $22.1 million, after a reduction of $2.0 million related to a consumer coupon program.
- Toxin market share increased from 3.0% in Q4’23 to 3.7% in Q1’24.
- Aesthetic units sold increased 105% YoY and 7% QoQ, despite traditional seasonality.
- RHA® Collection net revenue of $29.6 million; filler market share increased from 9.1% in Q4’23 to 9.8% in Q1’24.
- Revance launches DAXXIFY for Cervical Dystonia, with coverage for 78% of commercial lives and continued positive real-world physician feedback from PrevU program.
- Revance continues to expect 2024 total net product revenue, which includes sales of DAXXIFY and the RHA Collection, to be at least $280 million.
- Conference call and webcast today at 4:30 p.m. ET.
I guess many are not happy with Angus and Foley, especially Foley's compensation.
1. Each of the Class I nominees of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) were elected to hold office until the Company’s 2027 annual meeting of stockholders, as follows: Angus Russell: 46,115,633 shares of common stock voted for and 23,876,260 shares of common stock withheld; Julian Gangolli: 64,257,114 shares of common stock voted for and 5,734,779 shares of common stock withheld; and Olivia Ware: 52,294,395 shares of common stock voted for and 17,697,498 shares of common stock withheld. There were a total of 19,398,055 broker non-votes for the election of the Class I nominees. The terms of office of the Class II directors, Mark J. Foley and Christian W. Nolet, continue until the Company’s 2025 annual meeting of stockholders. The terms of office of the Class III directors, Jill Beraud, Carey O'Connor Kolaja and Dr. Vlad Coric, continue until the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders.
2. The stockholders ratified the selection by the Audit Committee of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm of the Company for its fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, as follows: 88,457,575 shares of common stock voted for, 849,475 shares of common stock voted against, 82,898 shares of common stock abstaining and no broker non-votes.
3. The stockholders approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the Company’s named executive officers as disclosed in the 2024 Proxy Statement, as follows: 51,554,931 shares of common stock voted for, 18,083,102 shares of common stock voted against, 353,860 shares of common stock abstaining and 19,398,055 broker non-votes.
Finally an ad that looks decent
The power move one was lame
Anyone know the voting result %?
Annual meeting - anyone attended or listened to the call? Any notes? TIA
IanFromSI, now we all know your motive here. lol.
So stupid
So you said some injectors are not using Daxxify because they are too busy to try... but isn't the long lasting feature of Daxxify the exact solution they are looking for to make them less busy?
Most didn’t realize even if daxxify ended up just with 10% market share in next few years, the return will still be more than okay.
Many here seems to forget that RVNC actually has a very successful rollout of RHA product lines. They screwed up the first Daxxify launch but it does not mean they are incompetent fools. Hopefully, the second attempt will bring successes.
>>about 30% of their toxin use is Daxxify
That's very high percentage (I assume 15% for my base case), is it not?
Unfortunately, sometimes, we have to be bet against the market the win big. Certainly and know it all is a very pricy thing
The surprise to me is how fast and deep the drop has been after the 100mm secondary... I would think the book runner and the subscribers did their due diligence... and usually, stocks go up or at least stabilize after secondary...
>> If I didn’t have first-hand knowledge of how much better Daxxify is, I would be concerned about my investment.
Concern because the share price keep dropping?
Would be extreme bullish if RVNC re-affirm their at least 280mm sales guidance given Botox's weakness.
We can all hope. I bet Abbv would love to buyout RVNC even for 4-5 billions as then they will have a better product to push. But obviously, they can't due to competition concern.
Are you not concerning that your business will be taken away sooner or later by your competitors that offer the new and better product?
Seems rather naive on your part to not trying harder on this as it seems you agreee Daxxify is the best and cost less?
>> Foley is making a good decision!!
Finally. :) All while stock keeps making all time low almost daily.