Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The trial did fail, and the evidence is overwhelming. That's why about five or six years ago, after they conducted an IA and the FDA banned anyone else from participating in their trial, they suddenly went quiet. Only when asked about it directly did they say anything, and that's when they very craftily and strategically started mentioning this grand concept called the "long tail" and employed their bulletin board platoon to start calling the "long tail" the "gold standard" of GBM vaccine endpoints. What's odd, though, is that when they set up their own Phase 3 trial for DCVax-L, they did not use the supposed "gold standard" for their primary endpoint. No, they used PFS as their primary endpoint, and if you go to clinicaltrials.gov today you will see that it is still listed as such. The trial measurement components on clinicaltrials.gov don't say anything about long tails.
By pure coincidence, they also began lobbying the FDA to consider the hardships of poor little bio-startups whose trials happen to fail the PFS endpoint - yes, the same PFS that they themselves had set as the primary measurement component of the trial. Funny they would ask the FDA for that kind of leniency. Now why would they do that? Perhaps to help out potential competitors whose trials fail PFS? Now that would really be something, but, no, I don't think that's why. If you really think on it hard, you eventually stumble on the conclusion that they were probably asking the FDA for leniency because they know their own trial is a PFS failure.
Anyone with half a brain knows that if the trial had shown progress toward meeting the primary PFS endpoint, they would have ended the trial in 2015 and declared DCVax-L a great success. But they didn't. Instead, they went totally silent and tried to surreptitiously change the whole focus of the trial. It was at that point that this whole debacle became an outright scam because since that time all they have done is raise money to pay themselves $500,000 salaries, cut insider loan, warrant and real estate deals that have allowed them to pocket millions, dilute our stock with pump-and-dump schemes to pay off their buddies, and totally destroy the value of common shareholders' investments. And the whole time they've been laughing at you, daring you to do something about it. They lie with impunity and say things like we expect data lock to occur approximately by the end of May as a distraction while the reality is that behind the scenes all they were doing was preparing to unload another pump-and-dump payoff for their buddies. It's why they continue to miss financial reporting deadlines even after being rebuked by the SEC to clean up their act. Lying with impunity and incessant distractions are common characteristics of all scams.
Make no mistake. The evidence is overwhelming that this trial did fail. It is more than just a rumor.
The data lock announcement at the ASM was just another distraction. It was successful. It allowed them to raise enough money to keep paying themselves another couple of months. They are lying lawyers playing games, and eventually everyone here is going to understand that.
Thank you for posting this balanced article. It's a shame that many here will fail to heed its very clear warning.
No need for a new gameplan. The facts are what they are. The skeptics have never said the stock price wouldn't rise with the announcement of data lock and the possible end of this never-ending trial. It certainly should rise. My hope is that it rises enough for me to get out and recoup some of the pounds of flesh that have been carved from me over the last six years before they announce the failed trial, if they announce anything at all. That's where this is going, you know. It's not like we haven't seen this cycle before. Good grief, do you never learn?
It's the "LP Friends and Family Quick Buck Plan". This marks the second time in just a couple of months that we've seen this blatant pump and dump scheme in action. And all of it comes on the backs of us common shareholders. It's a disgrace. This company and the lying lawyers in charge are running this blatant scam right in front of our faces, and still the eternal sunshine brigade will defend them to the end. It's just beyond embarrassing.
This appearance by LG is a prelude to what it's going to look like if (not when) they release TLD. They are going to lie and spin about what they are presenting, because they are lying lawyers. Of course it won't fool anyone, least of all the market which has already made clear it won't fall for any of the crap this company puts out. The lying lawyers cannot prove the efficacy of DCVax-L because they botched the trial, and instead of starting over with a very promising treatment, they decided to keep trudging along and not tell anyone what they were doing. But if they release TLD, they will make it sound like a total success. You notice how ethical companies state plainly and simply when their trials don't work out. That's not NWBIO. They have dug this hole so deep that there's no way they'll just come out and say "Yeah, we blew it." There will be more gamesmanship until the analysts have a chance to look closely at the data and expose what has really happened here. LG is setting the stage.
Referring to the premise of my argument makes me think you may know something about the philosophy of logical reasoning. If so, then let's break down your argument, shall we?
Your contention is that they never did an IA, and yet in 2015 they suddenly decided to quietly change the entire focus of the trial and move away from the defined endpoints? Is that right?
Are you saying that:
- moving away from the originally defined endpoints,
- verbally (unofficially) setting the new target as "long tail" survivors,
- and begging regulators to be lenient on trials that fail to show endpoint efficacy,
are not things that they did? Because I am confused about what, exactly, you are saying. Either you are saying they did not do these things, which would seem to be a rather bizarre position to take, or you are saying that they did do all of these things but they did them just by random happenstance, completely out-of-the-blue with no rationale or guidance.
Which is it, bro?
There is conjecture, and then there is reasoned conjecture. Your conjecture makes no logical sense. Mine does, and that, actually, is how you know the premise of my argument is 100-percent valid. Better luck next time.
I encourage everyone to read the section of the transcript below and read it carefully. This is not a timeline. Those of you who tried to tell me the CEO's presentation set a timeline of June or early July for TLD, you must be smoking crack. Perhaps you can point to where in this statement she says TLD will be released in June or early July. I'll wait.
What you have here is a bunch of excuses. Every one of the dozens of calculations and factors she mentions is a built-in excuse for further delay, and that is what we are going to get. The statement below sounds exactly the same as statements she has made many times previously. How many times have they promised TLD? How many times have they delivered? Yeah, nothing has changed, folks. They don't actually plan to release this data because it doesn't show what they want it to show. Just watch. We'll get an announcement of data lock probably in June (because they never meet a deadline), and then it will be back to radio silence for months. They are lying, and they are playing games. Just ask Dr. Duffy. BTW, has anyone bothered to call Dr. Duffy? Seems like he would be an excellent source to shed some light on what is really going on at NWBO, and a simple phone call is all it would take.
He was being sarcastic. Only a fool would claim there's any demand for stock of a company that's been withholding data from a failed trial for five or more years because it's afraid to release it.
Why has the company offered no timeline, not even a rough one, for TLD? Because they don't intend to ever release TLD, that's why. They knew that offering a timeline for data lock would be all that was needed to keep the minions busy with wild speculation and allow them to keep paying themselves a while longer. Data lock is a distraction, because as soon as they announce it later this month, they will go right back to their game-playing ways.
If they were serious about releasing data they would give a rough timeline for how long it will take from data lock to TLD. But they will never do that. They don't like to talk about TLD because the data doesn't show what they want it to show and they've known it for at least five years. That's why the CEO has been begging the FDA to change its rules just to accommodate their failed trial. All of you will see soon enough. After they announce data lock they won't say a word about TLD. Instead, they'll go right back into their cave of silence while the minions speculate like maniacs. Same old, same old. Nothing ever changes.
Almost all of you seem to think their promise of data lock by the end of May is some kind of monumental announcement. I hate to have to tell you this, but no, no it is not. There is still no timeline for them to release TLD, and I seriously doubt there ever will be. You will see soon enough when, after data lock, they get right back to playing their bullshit games.
NWBO is a scam, plain and simple. I have been telling you this for more than two years and all I get in return is grief and consternation. Just trying to help everyone out, and just trying to save some of you from serious heartache and trouble that seems likely when pie-in-the-sky delusions are confronted by cold hard reality. I also think it's important that we shareholders stick together because of the collective action that will need to be taken later. This company has taken my money, your money, and everyone else's money and they used it to enrich themselves, and they have provided nothing in return. They continued to take money even after they learned the test of their product likely failed, and they did not tell shareholders anything about what they had learned. What happened to the $47 million from the land deal? Hmmm. Somebody might want to check that one out, because from what I hear there are many indirect and convoluted ways that $47 million, or a portion of it, can make its way into the bank accounts of company officers and board members.
This thing became a scam when they found out the trial failed and did not say anything to shareholders. That was five or six years ago, and they still haven't come clean. Their silence is beyond unethical, imo. When you factor in how they've since used a failed trial to continue enriching themselves, to the tune of many millions over five or six years, it crosses into a whole new realm. I've said for a while there's at least even odds this thing ends with one or more of them being led away in handcuffs. Nothing disgusts me more than people who take other people's money under a pretense that they know is a lie, proceed to enrich themselves with those funds, and then provide nothing in return while pleading innocence - "We gave it our best shot and things just didn't work out. We were so close. Blah, blah, blah." It's theft, plain and simple. When they knew for six years that the trial was a failure, didn't say anything and continued to take money and cut insider deals like the 18 percent loan? That's outright theft.
NWBO = SCAM
IDH1 = Distraction
There is no deal with Merck, or anyone. No legitimate company would come near this 17-cent shyster operation that can't produce results from a 12-year-old trial, and that fluctuates between OTC and the Pink Sheets depending on how many office employees have a cold that day.
The doubters about Duffy can believe what they want to. I really don't care. But I do think it's hilarious the same people who would be so skeptical about whether he actually left will then - when they find out it's true - turn around and tell you his leaving is a good thing. It's beyond comical. "There's no way he left! Oh, he did? Well, then that's a good thing! It must mean the SAP is done!"
Yes, the company made a huge deal (their issuing a PR about anything is their way of saying it's a huge deal) about hiring him. And then they didn't say a word when he left seven months later. What a joke. Just like everything else with this company.
I think more and more people are coming around to the realization that everything I've been telling you for the last two years is true, and I think a lot more of you are going to be in that camp after this weekend. This whole thing has been waaaayyy over-complicated by those who choose to parse numbers and focus on meaningless details such as how many are still alive, daily anecdotes about Kat, how many are methylated and how many are unmethylated, and a smorgasbord of other meaningless interim data points. All of these things are great fun to talk about, but they don't mean anything. They are distractions. I can hear some of you right now screaming, "How can you say that the number of survivors is meaningless?" Well, that data point only has meaning if you can prove your product is the reason they are still alive. The only thing that means anything is whether they can prove it. That's how the process works, and that's what trials are for.
It seems increasingly obvious that, for whatever reason, they cannot prove it. It's a simple fact that if this trial had been successful they would have told us five or more years ago. But they didn't. That's really it, and that's really all you need to know. Instead they tried to change the whole direction of the trial thinking they could get the regulators to alter their rules to accommodate them. The CEO as much as admitted this in a recent response letter to the FDA. The worst part is that they never explained the strategy to shareholders or why they chose to do it - not once. Still, to this day, they have never explained it to shareholders. They've dropped hints about long tails and home runs, but they've never once actually explained to shareholders what in the hell they are doing. That's because if they were to explain it, they would have to admit that they know the trial likely failed, for whatever reason, to meet the endpoints it was set up to measure in the first place. Back when they found out this trial likely failed and they decided to not tell shareholders, not learn from their mistakes and start over, and instead go in a whole new direction, well, that's when this whole thing became nothing more than a scam. And that's where we are today. Maybe somebody should ask them about that tomorrow.
I love how these alleged conversations with the serial liars running this company keep getting posted here. These conversations inevitably contain a nugget or two of information regarding timelines and plans, and yet the company never makes a public statement confirming or reiterating said information. And, inevitably, none of these timelines or plans ever come to pass.
It's all a game, people. It's simply astonishing that so few here have been able to figure this out even after years and years of the same cycle repeating itself. They have nothing and are sitting on a failed trial. The CEO essentially admitted as much in a recent response letter to the FDA. They want the FDA to change the rules to accommodate their little failed trial. It's not going to happen. There is no data lock. There is no TLD. There is no mega-billion buyout. And there is no ASCO. Good grief! How big does this mountain of evidence have to get before some folks will believe it?
If the trial had been successful, they would have told us five or six years ago when they did an IA. But they didn't, which was a clear indicator that the trial most likely did not show efficacy. But instead of learning from their mistakes and starting over, they tried to reconfigure the whole trial and get the FDA to go along with it. They have not been successful in that effort, and now they are just stringing this along as far as they can so they can keep paying themselves. It's really that simple.
OMG, Ike the lawyer is back with a new set of questions! This is so good. And senti is vetting those question like a real pro - "maybe we should ask this question, but not that question, unless we ask this question instead." It's like deja vu all over again! Oh, man, these questions are going to clear up everything, just like they did last year!
Don't you people understand that the people running scams don't give a shit what questions you ask? You can ask all the questions you want, but it's not going to get you any closer to the truth. They don't care. Didn't you learn that last year? The only thing that will get you closer to the truth will be for all of you to drop your delusions of grandeur and realize that reality isn't what you so desperately want it to be. Reality is what it is.
I don't think this started out as a scam, but I do think it has ended up as one. It became a scam when they learned that, for whatever reason, the trial likely failed five or so years ago, and instead of starting over on a new, better conceived trial with lessons learned, they decided to plow ahead thinking they would be able to get the FDA to go along with their new pie-in-the-sky direction, which was always a long shot at best. And they chose not to tell shareholders what they were doing. Now they've got nothing and they know it. They are just playing games, and shareholders have suffered unnecessarily for at least five years.
Just think, if they had made the more prudent choice we'd be five years into a legitimate trial with a really promising product.
There's nothing about Duffy's departure that passes the smell test - nothing.
I predicted this when I posted the news. I really couldn't care less whether he stays or goes because it doesn't make one bit of difference for this turd company, but his leaving does confirm that NWBO wasn't at all what he hoped it would be. If he had just bothered to read some of my posts as part of his DD before taking the job, he never would have left Merck in the first place. But alas, he had to find out for himself that the company's got nothing, has a failed trial on its hands (see the recent response to the FDA regarding guidance - probably ghost-written by Duffy - that essentially admits the trial failed), and all they were doing is sitting around figuring out how to scrounge up enough funds to keep paying themselves for another month. When he found out what NWBO was really all about and that the FDA isn't going to change its rules for a tiny piece-of-shit bio with a failed trial, he begged for his old job back and Merck said OK. His job is pretty tangential anyway - he's essentially a consultant who lives in south Florida. Who knows what he actually does to earn a salary, but I seriously doubt he's walking around with a Merck ID badge clipped to his khakis.
My only interest in posting the information was to see how long it would take for some to bend over backwards to make Duffy's departure seem like a good thing. It didn't take long. At first people were skeptical because I was the one who posted it. They didn't believe it was true. Of course, that initial skepticism and doubt betrayed their true feelings about whether Duffy's leaving the company would be a good thing (if they really thought it was a good thing, they wouldn't have shown any skepticism about it being true). But then, when they found out it was actually true, they quickly righted themselves and decided they would start spinning a new reality! Duffy saying goodbye suddenly became a good thing - just like all of the other bad things that happen to NWBO are actually good things! So, now we hear Duffy's seven-month stint was to shore up that SAP and get the FDA's sign-off (at the same time the good Dr. Bosch was taking care of things across the pond). That's right. Merck sent the good doctor over to little old NWBO to help them get that SAP wrapped up and get the FDA's blessing, which he did with flying colors (and even threw in a new Direct trial to boot)! This was all planned and executed perfectly. Mission accomplished! Time to head back to the old position at Merck! And being unlike any human being ever, he decided to forego millions and perhaps billions of dollars in personal fortune that would result from his incredibly successful seven months of work.
The same ones who told us it was a good thing when the company hired Dr. Duffy are now telling us it's a good thing he's gone seven months later. They think it's divine when the company PRs the hire of Dr. Duffy, and yet they never question for one second why the company neglected to PR his departure seven months later - even though it would seem especially odd to not send out a PR if he had indeed successfully shored up that SAP with the FDA. Why wouldn't they PR his success in getting the SAP through, the task he was hired for, instead of leaving the obvious negative explanations hanging? Hmm. I wonder.
Someone should write a book about this message board and its rampant delusions. It's a mental illness - a psychosis. There was a time when shareholders could have acted to prevent us from ending up where we are now, and perhaps we could have salvaged a promising DCVax for a new, properly executed trial. But that time has long since passed. I was saying the same thing two years ago and told you to vote no on the board/officer compensation and bonuses, and vote no on massive two thirds dilution of our shares. That would have held the company accountable and forced some hard decisions, perhaps even a right decision to declare the trial a failure, learn from their mistakes, and start over anew. But instead, all of these measures passed with overwhelming shareholder approval. I did my best to tell all of you what is really going on here, but no one would listen. What a shame. Duffy's not the only one who will be leaving soon.
Anyone care to comment on the fact that your savior, Dr. Duffy, the one who was going to facilitate the $50 billion buyout by Merck, is no longer with the company? Sukus perhaps? Come on, let's hear the excuses about how it's really a good thing that he stayed with NWBO for all of seven months! I'm sure the one whose handle starts with "b" and ends in "iosectinvestor" can come up with something.
Dude saw the writing on the wall and realized what a huge mistake he'd made. Won't be the only one leaving, with all that's about to go down.
By god, I think you are right. That's just nuts. It's just beyond my ability to comprehend that NWBO is already up against the 1.2 billion share cap overwhelmingly approved by shareholders less than two years ago. How in the hell did that happen? Yeah, I know, but still it's just insane. I see people are reminiscing about how JAZZ went from $.70 to $100, but that company had like 20 million shares out. With 1.2 billion shares the equivalent would be for NWBO to get somewhere around $1.80. So much for the ridiculous fantasies that continue to permeate this board. The lying lawyers in charge of this company have run common shareholders into the ground (while they, in turn, have gotten rich).
This is a failed trial. They just admitted it in the letter to the FDA. There are no "ifs" about it. They wouldn't be asking the question otherwise, and no amount of quixotic denials will change the fact that if this trial had been successful they would have told us five or more years ago. But they didn't, and now, five years later, we have this letter to the FDA and people still want to make excuses and deny, deny, deny.
They've been living a lie for five years, and screwing shareholders in the process with their secrecy and silence while pocketing millions of dollars. It's just crazy that there are some people who still cannot see this.
NWBO = SCAM
Along with her $42,000-per-month salary (for what?), anyone care to speculate how much the CEO has made from her conniving schemes over the years? Millions and millions for sure.
What has she done for you, the common retail stockholder? Destroyed the value of your investment, that's what. And her partner in crime has made off with a tidy sum himself, not to mention his wife's $120,000 salary for doing absolutely nothing. These people live in really big houses, folks. And what have they produced? Oh, that's right - absolutely nothing. They are liars and schemers.
Can't wait to see what kind of raises and bonuses they are lining up for themselves this time. It's get-rich time at NWBO for the lying lawyers, but not for the shareholders! Just watch. It's coming!
The jig is just about up for this piece of shit company run by lying lawyers. NWBO = SCAM.
So, Doc, I detect a dash of skepticism creeping in, which would really be something for you. Are you finally beginning to understand that you've been lied to this whole time? Are you finally beginning to understand that none of this looks good, like at all?
Just a warning: don't be fooled by what's to come in the proxy and at the ASM. They are going to lay out some new can-kicking scenario that sounds good at first, but is really just another delay tactic. Probably something about the SAP needing to be revised, if I had to guess, but who knows? Maybe they'll come up with some new enticement that sounds like candy but doesn't have anything to do with unblinding a 12-year-old trial. They'll make it sound like approval is imminent and that they are making progress, which is what they always do. Only later do we find out that it's all BS, and that they are just buying time so they can keep diluting our shares to raise money and pay themselves.
That's what is coming. Don't be fooled.
A 30 multiple is nothing for a company as expertly run as NWBO. When you factor in the potential of Direct and the fact that DCVax probably cures coronavirus, too, I think we are looking at (back of the napkin calculation here), say, $2 trillion in annual revenue. So a $60 trillion market cap is extremely conservative, imo. Even if we hit the 1.2 billion float we are still looking at $50,000-per-share - again extremely conservative. This, of course, assumes that everything plays out as I envision it. And when it does, I see Merck as our likely first acquisition, and then maybe Bristol. Once we add those two to our portfolio we'll be pretty close to cornering not just the cancer market, but the entire bio-pharmaceutical market. Again, this all very conservative based on everything we know about NWBO and its management.
TLD is coming - soon! Go Linda! Go Les! Go NWBO! Great posts everyone!
Personally, I'm seeing $1,000-per-share buyout by Merck in the next six weeks. It just makes sense based on everything we know about this company and its management. Go NWBO! Great posts everyone!