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If the Alpine letter I read it true they need huge volume because they will only allow 20 percent of the last 20 days. I assume some serious cross trades are going on to keep the press up and running. I've seen it on multiple stocks. Huge prop bids build the volume sell the notes and volume goes to nothing. Look at MJL? Same senerio. Had a 3 million share bid with VFIN on the ask that would not move. As soon as he left bid disappeared. They got enough volume to push 5 million shares.
Not many companies are worth the share price. Hype and speculation are what moves these. Once again my hat is off to the sellers. They created enough interest to move a couple hundred million shares. I ask a year ago how you sell 50 million shares in this company. Now I know. Convince everybody dilution is about over and fire up the press. Let the morning buyers build a little confidence and then make a phone call to Alpine or Wilson Davis and cut lose 20-50 million. I'm just watching from the sidelines. Not sure it has enough profit on the upside for me to play. I figure all the shares bought at this level will be more than happy to exit at .oo2.
Took a starter here today.
I was looking at the Kathis Fund packet and think I might invest in it. Looks like the first round is $5,250,000 to drill 8 wells.Split on revenue is 85% investor 15% Kathis until your receive your investment back. The industry standard is 75% investor 25% company.
Expected time frame to receive your money back is 2 years at $50 a barrel for oil. Oil is currently trading at $75. I assume each well will produce 20 barrels a day.
After investors recapture invested capital the remaining split become 60% investor 40% Kathis.
I also came across the fact that Kathis also keeps 10% of the funding for administration/operator cost.
So here are some assumptions on my part on revenue for NMEX based on Kathis alone with very conservative timelines.
2018
If the first round of funding closes for $5.25 million.
First well should be drilled in late July and will take 30 days to complete. I will make the assumption that they will complete a well every 2 months after this until the first 8 are complete. Since the first 4 are on the same lease they might drill back to back wells at some point. For these numbers I will assume
1 well produces 19 barrels a day at $50 and Kathis has 75% NRI.
So investors will get $605 and Kathis will get $106 until all investor money is paid back.
2018
$525,000 Kathis fund 10%
$12,720 4 months production SEPT. TO DEC 1 well 19 BOEPD
$6,360 2 months production NOV. to DEC 1 well 19 BOEPD
$544,080 revenue to Kathis lets say they waste it all and break even for the end of the year and clean up the little debt they have.
2019 is the year of the break out and why I'm holding long.
$3,000,000 Kathis Fund 2 for $30,000,000 25 wells
$114,000 3 wells 12 months production
$31,800 1 well 10 months production
$25,440 1 well 8 months production
$19,080 1 well 6 months production
$25,444 last 2 wells 4 months production first fund complete.
$3,215,764 with a 45,000,000 million share count
I made a lot of conservative projections and probably did more damage with this post than good. But this ladies and gentleman is why I am long till the end of 2019.
Everything is my opinion and if you have any questions with my core math let me know.
Interesting non stop buying going on.
Plenty of people have eyes on it.
I have watched the action on HPIL for the last few weeks. Someone is loading it.
Thanks for keeping them in mind. I assume most in the back of their mind are wishing they could of gave more.
NMEX is the best long term play I see right now. Shareholder update says they should drill the first well in July.
NMEX nice little 500k bid showing above .04 last week. July should start a long run to .20. 100k block at .10 goes its game on. Low float and long term potential is great.
Sam
It's the OTC 100's of companies are doing it every day and people chose to play. High risk high reward. I'm surprised people are still buying. More they buy the more gets dumped at a discount. At some point people stop buying or the RS comes and it starts all over again.
Looking at the tap it looks like the .0014 got dumped on. I would be curious where we go if a multimillion share bid wasn't there. Would they dump to trips.
Who sold me 1000 shares. I added some size if you want to dump. Long and strong.
Like the board my I present to you NMEX. Check the filings to get current. Will be drilling wells in July. Can't uplist to QB because the float shares are not worth 2 million dollars. I have the current float figured at 5.9 million.
Is anybody keeping track of the OS?
Interesting read
Never been a very good basher Champ. But I lost track of the conversions of the notes a long time ago. I think it was after the 2nd page I decided I would just stay on the sidelines until it looked clear.
Don as you know I play just about anything. I like playing with fire.
I'm good for 10 million in this range as long as not R/S is in the picture.
It will go just a matter of time.
It will be difficult even for new investors. Market sentiments Is not looking so good. I thought about playing a flip but I still don't trust it even for that. Would rather buy 20 random .0001 stocks and hope for the best.
Tons of new buyers. That's what I don't understand. Guess if they stop the dilution for a little while it should pop up a little. Don't think you could sell any size into a 20 percent run. You have a ton of investors in the last 2-4 weeks that would be happy to get out even at these levels.
So the only question I have is who is the pro pumper to get other people buying to create volume so they can push the dilution. I don't think it's Wick he has been long and strong forever. Something changed a few weeks ago to create the volume needed to dump into buyers. I think it all started with some cross trades and huge prop bids.
They think buy raising the share price with the R/S foreign investors would flock in. Guess that plan didn't work so well.
Not even close to top 10 they did this in plain sight. Some come out of left field with the reverse.
Guess who got some shares today. I seen a 250k block at .0425 so I put another 100k bid in above it. If you are reading this seller why don't you hold for a couple months it's a easy double. Or keep dropping bombs and I'll keep buying.
I pick up some every now and then. It's in my pure lotto MJ pile.
I've been promoted to gentleman. I assume a pump group will show up to raise a little hell. Until then I will wait for news.
You guys know any other OTC companies operating in this space? Please and thanks you.
I bought mine after the name change
This could go on for weeks. I assume everything sold here is short. Float is 200k?
I bought new shares hoping for a AXXA squeeze. Where no old share holders can sell till shares clear.
Nmex another Q dropped today.
I think this is Alpines new rules. I'm sure similar companies have their own rules. I don't know all the ones that will allow conversations. I was looking at buying some notes to be the bad guy everybody talks about. I know there are 3-4 companies that will convert for note holders. I looked into it a while back but it seemed more difficult than expected to dilute. Should just leave it to the pros
Think they can do 20 percent of the volume for the last 20 days after Alpine tightened up. I have a therory that the note holders create volume with cross trade and then they can dump. I was trying to at MJL? Had a nice range with million share bids at .0025. Vfin on the ask at .0029 area. Wouldn't move with 10k hits. When he moved I thought it was push time. Bid disappeared and no volume after he got ride of a few million shrares.
Seen this in chats today that normally it would not show up in. Thanks Wick. Didn't you plan a trip to HQ. I be in Texas next week and see how far out of my way it is.
Is anybody getting updated share count from the TA or are they gagged? Unfortunately with the new dilution rules the added volume will only add more volume and dilution.
Thought this might be one of the Mandla shell.
Up 51 percent and board is slow. Don't worry I still have my tickets for this ride.
So .001 is the bottom for this note?