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Glenn, don't be too cocky, when no adminstrative action is forthcoming the day will come for your JPS, too
Mr Rick, 28 days to act before Dec 9th -- the countdown begins...
NVM that they had over 1000 days to act and never did... 28 days left
They could have done this any time they wanted, but they didn't want to do it...
I hope it works out for you guys, but I just don't believe the administration wants to do this -- the Republican hierarchy (Pence and all of his aides, plus congressional republicans, plus all the thinktank people) do not want FnF to survive...
Right, he does not need Congressional committees investigating him for ever...
Deadline is Dec 9th -- if they plead before SCOTUS, then Treasury is doing nothing else like settling...
If the SCOTUS hearing happens, administrative action is dead in the Trump Presidency -- I think market action will reflect that
Question is how much JPS is worth on back of SCOTUS and Lamberth hearings alone? Not $9 for FNMAS for me at least cos the AIG=type ruling looms very, very large
If Mnuchin is leaving, then his interest is in avoiding trouble and controversy -- but Mnuchin was never the person/s holding this back...
You going to bet your life on Lamberth? oh my...
Zombie pref never paying a divvy ain't worth a lot
I don't know about soon -- over next two weeks. Nothing by Turkey Time and nothing is coming...
The writing has been on the wall for a while, they slow walked this for YEARS... why? Cos the Republicans HATE FnF and want to kill them -- they were never, ever going to release them
Or so it now appears to me in hindsight -- otherwise why nt do something the first year? Let alone the second year of a Trump Presidency?
Nah, commons are pretty much at their floor
Clock is ticking on JPS -- if nothing happens before Thanks giving, then Treasury is letting this go WITHOUT administrative action in Trump Presidency
So, then it is up to:
(i) SCOTUS to rule -- god knows where Federal judges go and they hate giving government money away
(ii) Biden administration to plot its course with or without the catman
JPS craters after Thanksgiving as people realize they are now at mercy of SCOTUS ruling and Biden administration
Tick tock...
Yeah, I am afraid so
They have to move before Dec 9th, cos if they go to SCOTUS they will wait for ruling
But then in it Nov 9th, then take out Thanksgiving week, and we really only have a couple of weeks to act
There has been not a whisper from Treasury about doing anything... so? I think it will be nada...
And start all over again with Biden administration stuck with catman Calabria and a wafer thin senate majority one way or the other -- not a situation for big, bold actions
I expect to see JPS crater in the next month...
Glenn, looks like Treasury will slow walk right to the end of the administration:
Treasury Secretary will probably not approve amending of the preferred stock purchase agreement (vital for a recap and release) without more study, meaning recap and release could be a long way off if ever, I am told. Question is does @stevenmnuchin1 pull the trigger before Jan?
— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) November 9, 2020
Gasparino posting about reasons for no action:
Treasury Secretary will probably not approve amending of the preferred stock purchase agreement (vital for a recap and release) without more study, meaning recap and release could be a long way off if ever, I am told. Question is does @stevenmnuchin1 pull the trigger before Jan?
— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) November 9, 2020
100 % certain again? OK then...
I think there is a good chance they do nothing before SCOTUS hearing on Dec 9th, Republicans want to kill FnF...
Nothing until AFTER Dec 9th? ... oh dear...
Go to SCOTUS on Dec 9th, then wait for judgement -- so NOTHING AT ALL
Told you what would happen... drip drip drip...
They now know Trump is likely to lose, and down common goes...
JPS next when no administrative action is forthcoming...
Mark's priorities are crystal clear...
It is a red flag for everyone... though I don't think you have seen the real rout yet
Wait until administrative action fails to materialize, THAT will be correction in JPS prices -- made all the worse because there will be no one to buy when they start to try to sell
But maybe magic will work, maybe Trump will win, or maybe this administration or GOP will change their anti-GSE spots... November is either going to be 100% up or 50% down for JPS
Clarity indeed... the polls and historical turnout suggest a Dem victory, so game that out
Mnuchin does not act by Thanksgivig and they are going with SCOTUS ruling -- which will be given to Biden administration
Not sure how much I am willing to bet on a straight up-or-down SCOTUS ruling since Federal judges don't seem to like givign back the government's money
Would have to be a good price on JPS to make that bet -- hell of a lot better than $9 cos it is $0 or $25... and the probabilities of $0 not easy to calculate (spare me ROFL-guy...)
I am ready... dark winter indeed... could be a SCOTUS ruling upcoming after Dec 9th and lack of administrative action will have tanked both common and JPS
Add tax loss selling and it is a potent brew... did great at Xmas 2016 if I remember right, or was it '17?, when it hit a $1, and sold at $3...
Then you better hope that Mnuchin does that
IF they are going to plead before SCOTUS, then I don't think he does it before SCOTUS on Dec 9th - cos why go to court since the writedown ends the cases basically
BUT if they go to SCOTUS, then they will wait for the result -- so he won't write them down till the verdict... but he will be out of office by then and will no longer have the power
Calabria cannot write down the senior -- nor can he do anything with it in place
If there is no write-down before Dec 9th, or likely sooner, I think you need to batten down the hatches... battering coming on JPS prices
Canary in the coal-mine, if the JPS sink you common-holders need to run for the hills cos the smart money thinks no equity left...
Realization is dawning of a dem sweep of generational proportions -- we have historic turnout and those are voters who did not vote in 2016, so who do you think they are voting for?
I say again, there is real risk about the political mandate in the face of such a vote...
On the contrary, if a massive Democratic win, in the lame-duck period, no mandate to do anything either
Better for Mnuchin to head back to private life without ignominy and investigations dogging him for decades...
Well, in Ackman we believe, as well as FnF common it looks like he could be adding Bloomberg common
PSTH should move a little tomorrow on the NY Post story of talks between PSTH and Bloomberg... maybe I have some cash soon after all?
And then I would buy some SRG lol
Yeah, I know, but I think it is better to have the higher yield prefs since it covers you in a bunch more scenarios -- but I am not buying anything lol
FFF, thanks for the commentary. I guess I am skeptical that the SPSA happens, but we shall see...
Right now the JPS is too expensive for me, I will wait for the next setback and panic to see whether I come back in
GLNG is going back to double digits in the spring, and has great prospects going forward, so it is tough to give up
PSTH is a great stock to hold since its cash gets more valuable in a correction/collapse
So I like those more than FnF as trading options
Lemmings go over cliffs, can they also jump to their deaths through "Buy windows"? Interesting urban animals I guess...
I am not sure what everyone knows? Can you fill me in wat you think.
I think common is in danger of a cramdown IF anything happens
I think JPS is in danger of Trump administration just leaving things be till SCOTUS -- and then when you go to court Federal judges can be cute with an AIG-like ruling, ie you win but nothing tangible
I have no cash anyway, all my trading funds are locked up in GLNG and PSTH right now
But I actually don't like the FnF risk profile in comparison to names like the two above -- how about you? Thanks in advance for the commentary
BTW FNMA sub $2 already, as I suggested, and we got 2 more weeks till election day -- and Trump is STILL SINKING in the polls... Making things worse as he gets more desperate, totally ignoring the CV 19 spikes does not make anyone trust you
Curious where JPS will go, but strengthening a little lately so who knows?
I took a look at it and too many things had to fall into place for it to survive, so I passed
Sorry to hear about your loss
I have looked at GNW a few times over the years, it reeks to high heaven. State insurance regulators have great powers, rightly, and they are not going to let some unverified (and pretty sketchy) Chinese company just waltz in and takeover all of the money needed to fund the insurance obligations... Especially not after that company cannot bring the cash together for YEARS... This won't happen in six months let alone one... bizarre.
Pretty interesting Glenn has been using the various aliases. Quite funny actually, plays the wholesome midwest guy while cracking wise as CC... lol
Curious how much JPS drop after thumping Trump loss -- I think Trump may take his ball and go home, does not want to play any more. PLUS the mandate for action will be gone politically -- biggest electoral loss in generations does not allow you to "give windfalls to hedge-funds"... Mnuchin would be crazy to do that -- he would get killed (and investigated for years)
I prefer PSTH, buy the March $20 calls at $5, since you get 20% extra warrants when merger happens (so $24!) PLUS whatever crazy run the stock makes on an announcement -- in Ackman we trust, just not FnF common
Glenn, Genworth is Like Frontier -- you really can pick these money-pit stocks
At least FnF have two possible routes to a return: (i) Trump administrative action after huge loss in lame-duck session or (ii) the Whacko conservatives on SCOTUS vote for massive government windfall for hedge-funds (not a great look for kicking off the conservative majority?)
Throwing money away on GNW...
All is revealed lol...
Good Glenn, Bad commons-converted
Or people are following their totem who made this an identity issue for them -- then walked to the hospital for experimental drugs
The rest of us are told to wait home, sweating and wheezing till we cannot basically breathe -- THEN you can be gurneyed to the hospital
One wonders whether the scales will fall from some eyes finally...
You should also remember Calabria and Pence were aligned in their ideological opposition to FnF - they want them dead
If POTUS asks Calabria to resign, will he have the backbone to stay?
Donot, that was my thought too -- hopefully the news helps the deniers realize there is a virus, it is increasing again and that the simple act of wearing a mask is worth the trouble to keep each other safe
Thank you, it is Barrio, he gave me some nice restaurant tips for Lisbon
DRIP DRIP changed to SPURT SPURT...
The dumpster fire of an administration cannot even keep the President healthy, President Pence will not move forward on FnF
Biden keeps conservatorship
At least the risks of those two are going to hurt common and JPS for a good few weeks imho
GL my friend, hope Portugal is doing better than this crazy place
LOL, Biden continues conservatorship FOR EVAH
Dems need to pay for a lot of stuff, FnF pay for affordable housing and much, much more
Stick a fork in it would be the answer
Pence would kill the administrative action in lame duck session, then Biden will keep FnF in conservatorship to pay for affordable housing and other policy moves
What would President Pence do?
That is now a question all FnF holders need to ask -- hence the tanking on common AND JPS
Pence is no friend of administrative action - no friend AT ALL
Risks just went up leaving only a SCOTUS hail mary as catalyst -- I will look at again at JPS when we get the $25's down to $5-6