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I go where the value is, but I think their rational self-interest aligns with mine
Myself, I don't trust crazy, angry Justices like Alito, Gorsuch and Thomas, and whacko's like Barrett, to engage the facts and the law rather than their agendas
But it is all preference -- what are you investing in other than this peice of work?
A penny surge! How did I miss that?
Hope you are doing good my friend -- big China up day for me, so happy here
...still dropping - interesting...
No one see any news?
Carlos was doing Qanon before Qanon -- though he was focussed on FNMA to be fair
I myself find it very plausible that the secret plan of having a wizard riding a broomstick to swoop in, and save the day, will work -- and I look forward to the movie "Harry Potter (and Carlos) Save Fannie Mae: The Wizard's Return"
This tripped my alerts, so there is no news that is public yet collapsing the common?
Taking some prefs too... though not to the prices I would find attractive
No idea yet what happened? Did someone leak Justices Alito and Thomas's blood oath -- albeit a draft! -- to stop greedy hedge-funds?
Under 85 cents... yikes
...85 cents? Really?
:(
ACG Analytics? Their claim to fame was to have contacts in Trump administration -- clearly did not have much of those...
Why would anyone take anything they say seriously any more?
All well taken points. But my view is not that the recent ruling by SCOTUS kills all the legal options of shareholders by itself
My point was rather than the motivating spirit of the majority on SCOTUS is the problem. When those other legal paths yield favorable judgements for the plaintiffs, and get appealed by the government to SCOTUS, THEN that motivating spirit of the majority will mean it finds a way to salt the fields of any redress so that it bears no fruit for the plaintiffs (think AIG...)
Alito let the cat out of the bag -- SCOTUS is clearly ill disposed
I am happy to consider improbable options, I have even invested on the chance of them (when the risk-reward was right)
But here all, I mean ALL, of the options have gone -- SCOTUS will kill any legal redress, by hook or by crook, on appeal
And no government can now give relief since it will look like -- because it is! -- legally unnecessary special treatment of shareholders.
Where is the downside to letting this roll-on forever? If it ain't broke, don't fix -- and for the government it ain't broke
The market does not assign the value here ultimately -- that is done in this case by SCOTUS and the government...
so run for the hills lol
Last time I checked, SCOTUS is the final -- the last and final -- arbiter of what is or is not constitutional
The majority of SCOTUS says application of HERA by the government has been fine and dandy -- both with respect to the letter of HERA, and the letter of the constitution
As Justice Alito was keen to emphasis -- no payouts for greedy hedgefunds
welcome -- kind of obvious stuff
But this is the special conservatorship framed by HERA that SCOTUS takes to be sui generis (that is, one of a kind) and unlike anything before -- so how can Pagliara say it is outrageously long? Since it is one of kind, and not connected to other conservatorships there is nothing to compare too!
Pagliara needs to give it up and stop wasting his holders money. SCOTUS is the end of the road and they have dictated how HERA is to be read by the courts - nowhere left to go, pack up, the game has ended
Holy cusp! How many cusps have you been on the verge of in seven years?
Have you ever heard of learning from past experience?
... no body is on the verge of nothin' as they say where I am from.
Biden has other fish to fry for the remainder of his term -- no extra political capital or goodwill to lavish on FnF.
But more importantly, rather than a Fed put, there is a SCOTUS block here. The conservative majority on SCOTUS have bought the government narrative (cf Alito!) and they will sign off on no remedies for "hedge funds", aka holders, in the future. Any ruling in any lower court gets appealed by government to SCOTUS, then down it will go...
This is purgatory, trade the stock, trade the preferreds, but there are no remedies, and no relief, coming -- so no cusps you can be on the verge...
Timmy looking very old...
Not so much Baggies here, bags cost too much...
More like "Wrappies" -- people left holding sausage biscuit wrappers after dropping the biscuit :(
Sausage biscuit or FNMA common?
Still same answer as before -- sausage biscuit...
Big Mac or FNMAT?
Getting harder to answer - but still Big Mac till we get back down to $1.50...
We are going to have a face ripping decline at some point, then the hedgies will be forced to sell their pref to cover their other margin calls...
Then I will buy at $1.50 or lower and forego my Big Mac -- anyway, I am not really keep on Glenn handling the burger given his new position at McDonalds
F was surprising, AMD too, so nice job to you too...
lol, you are posting that -- without irony? -- on the FNMA board?
Lufax (LU) is the biggest fintech, parent is Ping An (biggest insurance company in China and theiy use their data to screen loans/algo's), they interact with regulators a great deal and went into small business loans at direction of regulators -- small business loans are now very profitable
PE is 4, though probably earnings are higher since their accounting means they have to book stuff "upfront" and they promised in their last CC to initiate a divvy for 2021 at 20-40% of earnings which were around $1, present sp is $4.75 so substantial divvy is coming at 5%... oh, and they are growing at 20%+
Please, bring me more of these "scams" -- oh right, QFIN looks like another scam already paying a 5%+ divvy, with a 4 PE and growing great
I like TIGR and FUTU in the online brokers too, also profitable and growing CRAZY fast...
...maybe you like FNMA better? GL
Another hedge fund meltdown = pfd collapse
It seems the pref prices are correlated (on the downside at least) to market corrections -- seems hedge funds have to sell these illiquid securities (often in volume) to raise cash when they get hit by market corrections
Thinking about buying FNMAT when it gets down to that 1.5-1.75 range, since they seem to buy it back up to 3 when we have the sniff of good news
But we shall see, if we have a proper, blood-from-the-ears, collapse, then FnF pref may go below 1.50
I am all in cash in my taxable accounts (all internaitonal ETF in retirement accounts) -- BTW you guys laughed at me in the COVID crash when I said buy M at $4 (now 25), buy SKT at 2.5 (now 18), buy CEQP at 6 (now 28)... at least I am still laughing lol
This time around, american stocks way, way too costly -- my favs for the brave are chinese fintech and brokers: LU at 4.75 with divvy announcement coming in Feb, QFIN at 18, TIGR at 4.50 and FUTU when it gets below 38
Laugh away...
Thanks for the reply my friend, was curious if there was news I missed - I don’t follow these closely any more
Just tax loss selling?
It ran from 1.5 to over 3.5 on FNMAT
Now back under 2.5
Thank you for the response
Please look up "sensible" in the OED -- THEN go take ur meds
Bye!
Why did the prefs dump today? Sensible answers only please, ty in advance
I think a market correction takes a lot lower… but who knows what triggers a correction
Right now I prefer to put my gambling money into beaten down smaller Chinese tech stocks
A lot of value here...
Entertainment value, that is, never ceases to have something to talk about
The slow decline is back in gear cos no actual court dates for a while -- and we all know filing cases is easy and meaningless...
So the drip. drip. drip of the life blood continues...
Oh... thought you meant tis went under a penny lol
Green eggs and ham? Whut?
Drip by drip, yes, reality slowly bites...
The idea that government will give away warrants or liquidation preference for nothing has surely now been put to rest
The full political establishment -- politicians and judiciary -- are opposed to hedge-fund vultures, so they will extract every penny they can
So, yes, massive dilution coming
Why do I like the JPS? Maybe cos it has contract claims, and other outstanding cases, whcih are still alive rather than long dead
But, hey, why not file a suit years are statute of limititions has passed? Sounds like another "winner" -- choo choo!!!
Tripe trains death spiral deluxe!
Isn't Glenn paid to share his "knowledge"? Asking for a friend...
Best Ted talk on here in forever! Bravo...
They will deal with the liquidation preference and warrants by converting them to new commons - the warrants in full and then the liquidation preference to some degree
To roll that RnR forward, they may give a payout to resolve nuisance of existing JPS -- probably converting the JPS to still MORE common
Then they will issue still MORE common to new investors
At that point, I will be able to purchase all the existing common with my jar of pennies... but why would I bother?
Market also says obligations out-strip assets by a huge margin -- there is no meat on bone for present common and government, plus SCOTUS, have shown they do not want to reward hedge-fund vultures...
On the other hand, JPS do have outstanding lawsuits -- in BK court you often see a payout to resolve nuisance issues hampering a resolution and I think JPS has a *chance* of that
My comment about the glass jar was buying when market fully reflect worthlessness of present common -- one penny buys an infinity of nothing BTW
Thanks for the suggestion, I will take a look
I do have a big glass jar of change, I may follow Ackman and buy 10% of the company's common next year...
Or I might be more sensible and take a gamble on JPS...
Or I might buy something more analyzable lol
hmmm, my takeaway here is that the chart is meaningless cos the background legal and political context is everything
But then maybe you know how to use charts differently in special situations...
Going to be a drop into Xmas with tax loss selling -- and people are sitting on sizeable losses again...
Question is why would it bounce in the Spring? No news that we know of coming...
JPS gets down to 5% and I will take a gamble -- I won't be buying commons since it looks like it is obliterated in any RnR...
Truck suspension is fine, cos the load just got reduced by 70% - :o
$2.40 to 70 cents is real money
We are yet to see a court uphold any violation of the constitution
We are yet to see a court uphold any taking
So, right now, no court has found any citizen's constitutional rights to have been violated
Please correct me if I am wrong - I also believe the courts, and ultimately SCOTUS, are the arbiters of such matters
I think you have more chance on the MORAL question -- maybe God is not a member of the Federalist Society?