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Wow, 0,01% of outstanding shares sold today !
Why are they all hanging to their shares, are they crazy or what !
There have been a lot of posts about calculating future valuation on STWA, including some very conservative ones. If you are genuinely concerned, you need to go back to those posts.
Regarding STWA PR frequency :
What the people craving press releases don't seem to understand, is that where there is an NDA in place (as there is here with TC), any talk or revelation of information covered by the NDA can have very serious and expensive consequences.
Just a couple of years ago Mitsubishi Corp. got hit for a judgment of $124,000,000 in a California court for revealing information that was not supposed to be disclosed pursuant to an NDA
Impatience on the part of a shareholder or two should not stampede management into jeopardizing the very existence of STWA.
Wow ! 0,16% of outstanding shares sold (and bought) so far. Who are the 0,16% of geniuses who are predicting that the sky is falling !
Somebody(s) is trying to create a sell-off. So far only 1,5 / 1000 of float (or 0.15 percent) have changed hands...
For those who express frustration, may I tell them that we are not even the 15th, and the silence of the last weeks is normal. The next days and weeks have the potential to be the most exciting in STWA history, as the data analysis will reveal exactly the level of economics of the AOT. Of course, the data may not be complete and some configurations may not be perfectly simulated, (to extrapolate from 1 AOT to a fully fitted pipe is no small feat) but the bulk of the conclusions will be there. I am sure they know already since july if it is average, good or excellent, but the figures for the flow increase and the price of AOT will now be mathematically defined. The calculations that are ongoing in TC, STWA and TEMPLE, will define the future stock price.
I don't really believe there will be another test. If they needed another set of datas in a different point of the pipe, they would not have waited 4 months. I think the critical stage now is analysis of the datas. At what point are they ? I have no idea. Between now and end of analysis, there can be many weeks. Do they have to release some communication in the meantime : not sure. We may have a hint : if the AOT stay there, it might mean it will be part of the future PO. Greg knows there is a lot of attention on this oct15th date. He will do what he can without compromising the essential : the PO.
I think after oct.15 what will happen in the office with the data analysis is more important than what will happen with the AOT if it is switched off. All the more since we don't know how many days or weeks are needed to return it. So the days and weeks after oct.15 are very important but we may not observe anything with the naked eye...
Normally yes, because the agreement says : ...., but there maybe a few days or more of uncertainty,
I will differ regarding the interpretation of this lease termination agreement. As I have said before, keeping or not 1 AOT is totally irrelevant to TC's future.
What is relevant is to enter into a new and global agreement involving staged orders and implementation of tens of AOTs.
Only one pipeline may justify one order or multiple staged orders, for example first order for bottlenecks, and second for general flow increase.
Why cancel this lease for the test AOT ? : simply because TC wants to be totally free on price negotiation, and needs separate testing from ordering. There may be several weeks, I hope not months, needed for just the data analysis. I believe there is no game playing between TC and STWA. TC was not obliged to add the word "successfully (complete testing)", just a little short of "complete successful testing", thus giving a balanced/neutral explanation. This is a signal that the dialogue between TC and STWA is totally transparent, professional, and organized, and that neither wants to draw public positive or negative public perception to interfere with the process _ until public announcement.
420,000 shares + today
Pick up an easy to read book by Brian Green for example, and you will see that nature has much more incredible things than this. Even understanding gravity is a whole endeavor by itself.
Wen160,
In the home page 2nd picture, you have a nice arrow on the lower pipe going back in the pipeline.
So the top pipe is oil from the pipeline.
http://www.stwa.com/
Question :
yummy yummy !!!
O2Infinity, well reminded !
As have already been pointed by another poster, this sentence from Greg,
99,97 % of shares are firmly in the investors hands today.
We are blessed to be in a "private equity company with public and regulatory scrutiny and compliance".
This is what I posted in may. I may be wrong but, it is a real possibility :
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moorea9 Friday, 05/30/14 04:16:11 PM
Re: None
Post # of 12362
TC has been involved in the development of the AOT2 with X engineers for Y months. Yet, many people here doubt that this device cannot be installed on another company without some kind of involvement of TC which might be spelled in the NDA (unless you think that each company will have its own version of the AOT). The NDAs might also not be bilateral NDAs but multilateral one, with STWA as the provider and TC as a stakeholder. And also, for all this to be actionned into contracts, all NDAs must wait for the unique pilot results, which will scale the profitability of the device, and then its pricing... Just my opinion.
New website : the website has certainly been designed by the new marketing company. The previous website was good, but the green orientation in the new website is a concerted decision to prepare the future TC order.
Working fine on IE. On the news page, there is picture of the stock exchange !
http://www.stwa.com/news
I haven't been on the website for a while, and I see a big change in the look and feel.
http://www.stwa.com/
I agree. Tao and team have all the TC datas, for the simple reason that as much as between prototype and actual AOT there is a change of scale, there is also a major change of scale between 1 AOT and a fully fitted pipeline. This requires scientific calculations on the AOT test results. My belief is that Tao and team are closely working with STWA and manipulating TC test datas. Then there must be a confidentiality agreement between STWA and Tao as a natural extension of the NDA we know about, otherwise how can STWA guarantee to TC that the data they get are safe. I would not be surprised to learn that Tao and team have visited the site.
Can there be a link between the time "coincidence" of :
- the just in time release of undeniable scientific proof of what is happening at molecular level, (+ the oddity of october 15th as official release date for the article + the mention of TransCanada Keystone in the article),
- the end of the testing in a little more than 2 weeks,
- a possible PO announcement by TC,
+ maybe imho the end of the NDA as October 15th was the initial end date of testing upon signature of contract in 2013..............................
Flubug,
The E in the P/E must be a recurrent earning, not a onetime earning; moreover the market prices not on this year's earning but 5 years forward.
It's easier to reason from TC point of view on a share of profits, and from STWA on recurrent leases.
TC : additional profit = additional flow 50,000 barrels/day x 4$ x 365 days = 73 MUSD/year
STWA : 15 skids at 60,000 $/month = 10,8 M$/year
for 30 skids it would be 21,6 M$/year
We don't know how many skids are needed for this pipeline but 15-30 seems a good range.
That gives STWA a revenue of 15% to 30% of TC's increased profit, on a RECURRENT basis.
Let's take a profit of 12 M$/year for STWA. P/E = 20, PPS= 1,3$
This is for ONE pipeline and "FOREVER".
So if the market prices on 10 pipelines in the short term (5 years), the P/E would be more like P/E= 200 for a while, and the PPS would shoot to 13$.
This is just for mid-stream.
If you consider that there are more than 10 pipelines in the world, then the sky is the limit, even with the very conservative numbers I took.
could October 15th be the end of NDA date ? that could explain why TC would want a new type of agreement from there on ...
consistent with the fact that it was the original end of test date planned back when they signed the lease;
and this date for the Tao article to be published ? odd....
I personnally expect an order from TC anyday from now, including before October 15th.
I would even venture that the decision to shorten the test from 6 months to 4 months was a collective one involving Tao.
My guess is that he is across all test datas with TC and STWA. Extrapolating the effect of 1 AOT to 10s of them on the same line is no small scientific feat (involving maths and physics). That's part of the NDA's purpose. We got a gigantic hint with the 10-15% flow increase. Let's wait a little more.
I don't know how many shares they shorted but that is not a pretty place to be right now