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Thanks proto, access appears closed. I found some of it elsewhere, but still want specifics on products being developed/prototyped/ commercialized. Will do some digging later tonight.
Another question: is there a product roadmap and timeline that lays out where the technology is in it's move to commercialization? It seems that the decision has been made to make (with contractor s or partners) proprietary devices and the it is critical to know with as much specificity as possible how they plan to get there.
I'm impressed by the talent attracted to this technology, but I have the unfortunate experience of seeing this play out badly for another 'disruptive technology' company over the past 3 years in spite of the certainty presented by their C team.
I'm very interested in this investment, I own a significant position (for me) based solely on the recent share price movement creating what I believe to be an oversold position. Ultimately, investing is always more about timing than technology, no matter how great the potential is. Good luck to longs and thanks again in advance.
Question for the enlightened.
I see Dr. Lebby talk about achieving 50 gbps for the transceivers to run 8x50 for 400g.
I see 4x10g and 4x 25g, but have not seen 8 by anything, not that I have dug deep. Are there reasons why this is not a current common deployment and is there something unique with LWLG that makes this a viable option? Thanks in advance.
Bang on Walterc. It's another step forward.
Proto, no sweat, progress is what matters.
No the QFSP at 28 is the standard. They appear to have achieved this in alpha. That is good. But it is not yet validated at QFSP standards on a commercial scale. And do they want it to be, or will they plow straight away to 50+? Why expend $$$$$$$$ and resources unless they plan to sell at 25gbps?
My guess is they may do proficiency and some validation at this level solely to provide commercial proof of concept and to accelerate scale at 50gbps.
If I am wrong show me where it says commercially produced at QFSP standards.
Please: Facts first -- again if I am wrong, I will gladly accept that.
Hey Proto, I know the dielectric component is their (POET's) big thing coming this year, but as a component it represents minimal revenue until they incorporate it into their 100 g transceiver which is a 2019 thing.
Bill Ring of POET and Lebby are cohorts and I am wondering if there are any discussions between them for capitalizing on synergies to create a truly disruptive 100g device. POET seems to be tracking on course of making their own transceivers at DenseLight in Singapore. Listening to the ASM and lwlg's open communications is a breath of fresh air versus POET, and while I think both technologies can be disruptive, LightWave seems to have a better and deeper leadership team.
Starting an in depth look here after watching and stubbornly holding elsewhere in the photonics field to my near destruction. So please do not take my questions as criticism, just completing the picture to the best of my ability.
Very nice run up to here and a solid footing from the $1.20s and up now. Market cap of $100 million and # of shares outstanding leave plenty of room for growth.
I will do a lot of DD so no need to reinvent what has been told, point me in a direction and I will dig. And at some point I hope to be able to contribute.
Lebby's NR, last paragraph, seems to place a lot of expectation on 2018 (larger partners, advancing optimization). I see a lot of talk here of $5 by Christmas, but what are the short term catalysts that might drive PPS for the rest of this year?
I will spend the next several days going through the archives, are there any specific pieces addressing the roadmap of products, monetization, revenue forecast that I should look for?
The talent and the technology appear to be top shelf, what are the technological catalysts for breakout? 50gbps? Industry certifications? Other?
I think I saw that they are developing their own line of devices, given my past experience, would they be better served to do the proof piece (for example, 50g,) then license their technology to the highest bidder across the industry. Build out of proprietary devices is always capital, time and resource intensive.
I could easily see companies from materials side (DuPont, Corning) to end user (Google, Apple, etc) and many in between wanting to own this. Personal bias, I would rather them let the device makers beat each other up, while they stay out of the commoditized side and license the magic sauce to the highest bidders.
Does company have a shelf registration(?) I see how they have financed in the past, but appreciate any thoughts about a cash raise given the higher share price often tempts companies to strike at such levels.
That's it for now, time to watch some LWLG video clips.
Hey strik, this has been nothing but a nightmare for me. Two years ago they said we were off to the races, then they put the engine in reverse and now we are probably two years away from anything.
We have no integrated products on the market yet, no InP, not GaAs -- nothing. We will be selling components to start, pieces of pieces of pieces. The revenues look scant until 2019, when these new integrated products will allegedly kick into gear.
While the presentation is nice and the tech is well described, the revenue forecast beyond 2018 is based 90%± on guesswork. Will their 100g transceiver become a game changer? There are scores of companies trying to make inroads, spending billions, to be best in class. What are the odds?
The GaAs platform seems to taking second place to InP. So the foundational POET technology remains incomplete with an uncertain future. The transceiver is the most basic integrated optoelectronic device and it is now a year overdue, but it remains scheduled for late 2018 commercialization. It does not seem to add up.
Have I given up completely? No, but I have bitten the bullet and sold some to investigate other opportunities. There are so many trip wires along the way that, even if we get good news I will have plenty of time to expand my holdings. Time to explore again. Proto, Rickface, Steve S, lots of questions coming your way.
Great news and nice run here guys! Congrats!
I'm not a technical trader, but I do think the battle for $1 p!us is already won with the run to $1.50. Tutes and some small funds now entering the picture and they will want that $1 threshold held.
I don't hold any now but will look to grab some sub $1 shares if it happens. Best to you all.
Yeah Proto, the silence is extremely frustrating, and if was not for the botched offering and sitting at a fraction of where we were 6 months ago, we would probably be more forgiving and more patient. I view it as a lethal combination of arrogance and ignorance, and Venkatesan's only shot at redemption is successful completion of the commercialization AND some very lucrative NRE and/or licensing agreements that takes us far above current levels. This ties in with your question, when is the AGM?
I suspect it will be scheduled either as soon as they know the above conditions are met, or if not, as late as mid August. And if it's the latter, I will be surprised if Venkatesan is around to attend. Strictly my opinion though.
Proto, here you go.
can you elaborate on what Ii-VI did to block our progress? ----- In a matter of a few months, IIVI bought up POETs two key wafer subs, Anadigics and Epiworks each shortly after POET contracted with them, severing the supply. These moves effectively delayed development ( though not exclusively I believe) to the extent that we continue to await commercialization.
also, the PIC presentation seemed to say the VSCEL had been optimized, so not sure what the delay in news release on the subject? ----- my guess, the VCSEL has not been optimized to the extent that it is ready for commercialization. They characterized the results as 'good' , but good is likely not good enough. While they interestingly showed the results in picture form, it may be that the level of optimization is expected to improve significantly with one or more iterations. Optimizing includes consistency, yield, quality, cost and getting these to their best levels before moving it to production.
lastly, you had told me the detector would be the first product launch and could do billion $ sales on it's own, being superior to all else out there, so what's the rub? why is this not being launched? ----- I honestly do not recall saying that about the detector, I may have, but that is true of the DAC/AOC markets for sure.
I may have said detector is a billion total addressable market. Detectors alone tend to be very cheap, with extremely high levels of production required to generate revenue. They may have decided not to dedicate resources to a low margin high volume market. If I were them I would sell it as integrated products where the value added justifies higher prices and margins, less capacity.
Bottom line, we all continue to wait and wonder what is happening, but I do contend that recent events like the level of detail demonstrated at PIC and the updates to the website seem to suggest more visibility is finally coming. Or is that just hope? We will see.
Strik, still here. 3 things. 1) technology almost always takes longer than we expect. Company did too much promotion too early, which was misleading at best, deceptive at worst. 2) disruptive technology is blood in the water for the sharks whose waters we dare to venture into. Ii-VI saw the threat and successfully took measures to delay POETs development. 3) the company can say what they want but the fact is they badly and inexcusably botched the offering.If that does not happen, we are sitting at 2-3 times current levels. Nobody could foresee that debacle and it cost us tremendously.
Now it's simply a race, heroes or zeroes. It's all about the transceiver, if it gets done our worries should end. If it does not and money runs out it's another story. I think we will know by the AGM, the next 2-3 months. The upside is so great that success will wash out the failure conclusively, but the vulnerability until then is very real. Credibility has to be earned all over again now.
For now little things suggest news will come; a very open look at the technology at the pic conference is a positive sign, as is the update (finally) of the website. They must be concerned that some new eyes will be coming to the site.
Angry and regretful that I got in and made others aware of POET too early, relied upon people's word rather than my own rules of investing in spec stocks. Right now they need to do one thing right and the science is proof that it can be done. That's what I have to hang my hat on. Good luck.
Hey Rick, I have questioned why they would be so anxious to go to market with this offering,
absent of proof. What you accurately describe is extensive emphasis on disrupting markets, but investors want proof of concept.
The VCSEL transceiver, I believe, represents this proof and if it is close to completion in terms of market impact level of performance, why rush forward now?
That being said it really is the way with these small developmental companies, never as fast and almost never as much as the suggest.
I agree with your plan. Rule #1 Hedgies always make money so it will get moved up and does seem likely that more news will come to fuel the recovery.
The issues are short term in nature, the question is how much will it recover and will it be sustained?
There is an audio of the call, you will need to go to Rainers Agoracom or his blog, maybe on his Facebook, he put a link to it out on Friday.
I am extremely disappointed, I have to read through the new deck again, but I see a significant failure on their part in this news.
Yep I bought some also today. Bounced off the 52 week, and we should be hearing something soon, per their own statements. It's been a long strange trip, but I am pretty sure we will know if we are dead red or mean and green by year's end.
This VCSEL transceiver is the ticket. It's opens lots of doors. I'm leaning toward the supposition that it is as close to done as it can be without having to announce it, and that they are using this time to line up some deals. I want all of that to be announced simultaneously for our benefit. It's still an IF for the moment though.
I have tried to answer this 3 times only to have the response not load from two different tablets. IF POET gets the VCSEL transceiver prototype to tape out, if they have not already, they will have a two year lead on Ayar. Plus they will have two years of demonstrated products scaling up to 400g. The question is when will this be done? (or is it already completed.) We should know within a few weeks.
Proto, it's safe to say that the function of the laser within the epitaxial stack is not optimized. I think they were planning to have it by end of June, hoped to resolve it with another cycle by end of July but that did not happen. So it seems they are projecting out another two cycles to complete this step. My guess is the earliest would be by mid September.
When this step is successfully completed, tape out begins, which is anticipated to be about 3 months after the current step is done, then production of the transceiver follows.
I think Mazan's post referred to the laser driver versus the vcsel. Timing wise, end of July would be a good target. I'm more interested in getting the vcsel absolutely optimized. The detector functions at a 20x sensitivity level versus current best in class. I have no clue what they can get from the vcsel, I'm hoping for 2x plus. They will not move forward until they have the best performance they feel they can get.
I suspected that they had the prototype tested based on the fact that some satisfactory vcsels were produced. I'm guessing they would have rushed these into prototype testing to begin that process asap. They know that successful integration is the holy grail. I don't know how they will handle it, or when they will inform the world, more importantly, how. I would hope it's a full blown press conference preceded by a halt.
Otherwise, I would say have some liquidity and in on the announcement.
Considering who these guys are, when they release it, be assured nothing will be exaggerated. I do think once the tech world acknowledges it and investment community grasps it, we should be in for some long awaited fun. Tape out brings lots of interest and NRE. When is the question for everything, better than if though.
Not possible Proto, unless I had a crystal ball. The executive options do not surprise me, we could not have execs of this caliber otherwise. Based on what needs to be done, I would not want it in anyone else's hands.
Read schnauzer's post on Agoracom. Some good interaction with the execs at the AGM. My guess, after years of anticipation, is that this comes down to the next 3 to 6 months. Optimize a leading edge VCSEL, and then an integrated prototype and we are off to the races. Fail, and we are a still a company with commercial and developmental capabilities, albeit with an industry leading (by 20x) detector and SLEDS and a variety of soon to be enhanced photonics products. Still that company would be a fraction of a fully developed POET platform.
One friend of mine estimated that about 1.3 million remain through November. I think any significant news and a weeks worth of higher volume could wipe that out. I see the VCSEL and prototype due about now as pivotal.
Poet has everything lined up for commercialization; production, suppliers, infrastructure, sales and manufacturing facilities. Two years of Manocha meeting with and developing. This is where I differentiate LWLG from them. Unless LWLG is going to hand it all off to someone else, commercial prototyping and establishing production and the rest of the infrastructure takes a long time. They could get to revs quicker with NRE agreements, but until what they have is proven to be doable commercially, it could still be 2 years. Only saying this based my experience with POET.
Proto,
Lots to cover there. First, I think the EBITDA number is a non issue, I am really disappointed that they even mentioned it, since it is forward looking at 2 yrs out. I would hope their focus is on growth and not earnings for up to 5 years out. They will need to plow their revenues back in to building the business. Cash in hand is good, no debt on the books and NRE revs are anticipated.
I view the AOC as a rudimentary POET device that will be essentially a "pass through" cable for transfer of data, very low risk, but highly demonstrable of the technology. As they said, very low blast radius for a failed cable. I can't begin to estimate sales, but it appears production runs could reach the 10-20 million optical engines per month. So let's say 5 million to be ultra conservative, and 2 to a cable that is 30 million cables per year. If they sell at $20 that's $600 in revs. I am assuming they have some big buyers lined up. But let's say they forecast in that range by end of year 2017. That is a single product. I don't think they would queue production toward that level unless they know they have buyers lined up. But again let's halve that and say $300 million by end of 2017.
That does not include detector sales or any other product. If you look at the Corp presentation the product roadmap evolves over the next 3.5 years to on board optoelectronics. And it does not include any DenseLight products that may be enhanced by the poet technology.
Share price -- Over hyped expectations by the prior management, massive options have decimated the share price over the past two years. This group are results oriented. Over promise under deliver is minimized. The halt for the denselight acquisition fueled optimism of bigger ($$$$$) news and combined with the EBITDA statement at the THM have dumped the share price. There are no signs of extensive delays, failures, etc. We could drift lower absent of ness at or by the AGM.
I think the announcement of the prototype will be accompanied by NRE revs, strictly my thoughts though. And recognition of the unique properties of the Poet technology is what is needed to wake up the share price. Gotta run.
I have a small position in Lightwave, my core is in POET, opposite of yours, they are both interesting plays. LWLG sounds like a prototype device end of year, POET prototype in the next few weeks, then tape out, then commercial availability by 1q17. I love running tandem positions in near parallel technologies, in the past it has served me well, so my guess is POET first because of the earlier availability per their roadmap (not to mention the stock has fallen by 40% and is now relatively static) then more LWLG as they approach theirs and then hoping their valuations oscillate.
I think regardless, one is likely to feed the other during an uptick. Good luck.
I would have thought the same with the recent acquisitions, but it's the ability to fill the gaps in each other's pipelines and/or access to markets that might matter. I don't see anything near term though, opportunities for both independent of each other remain promising.
Hey Rick, it seems to be that LightWave and POET paths are beginning to converge. POET has now acquired DenseLight and BB Photonics. Lebby and several of the BB folks have co written multiple papers in recent years, clearly more than a familiarity with each other. Given the focus initially on data and telecom of both, I would not be surprised to see some synergistic activity develop over the intermediate term. Interesting times for sure, though not reflected in share price yet.
Apparently none of your shares shesorry. But you are buying and you are never wrong so keep it up.
Well, according to you Jumpinjakas you just bought back in at the lowest price (of course) so you must believe it to put your money up. Looks to be like about 2000 shares got traded as low as 66 cents so you are a big timer.
Only if you consider the first of it's kind hype. And as a prototype it is not a lab experiment, but commercially produced, so after tape out, it will be available for use, likely in active optical cables. Share price could take weeks, or even months to reflect that, but when it does it will be worth the wait.
Yeah it's just going to be a commercially produced prototype transceiver that incorporates electronics and photonics on a single chip. How many of those are out there today?
00:15:29 – The acquisitions really broadened our IP base. We have a gallium arsenide technology-based portfolio of intellectual properties that fundamentally enables electronic and photonic integration. Gallium arsenide is a very pervasive material, but it is limited in terms of its wavelength capabilities to about 980 nanometers (nm), for those who talk wavelengths and photonics. Indium phosphide allows that expansion of wavelengths to very, very long wavelengths and hence very long distance communications. So it really helps broaden our portfolio in a very significant way.
Not an expert but 850 to 980 represents the short wave infrared sweet spot, longer wavelengths are not used n detector technology, but I am a novice in that regard. So I don't think it is a limitation.
Good play strik. I bought shares I know I will have to sell in the next several weeks, just because I think we are way oversold on emotion. It's less than 2% of my overall holdings so I'm not playing the stock, but I can see a bounce back up to a dollar US as the market realizes the acquisitions have real value, and the company may want to make some news before the AGM in July.
Had the CEO said "We plan to use revenues over the next two years to invest in and grow the company, therefore we do not plan to achieve EBITDA profitability until the second half of 2018", instead of just the half of the above, we would still be sitting over a dollar. It was a poorly stated forecast coming from a company that will not even begin to forecast revenues until 4q16. That fact makes such a statement all the more questionable.
It seems to correlate more with Copetti's than Taylor's holdings but these two are pretty much the only ones with in the money warrants so it makes sense to sell shares to buy shares for them if they believe this is the lowest point or the last time it will fall this low. One of the guys on agora posted a nice summary of Copetti's holdings and tax liabilities and these appear to correlate with recent sales.
I can't predict a bottom but I am comfortable that we will be much higher than this. I did buy some flippers yesterday.
Here's a quick and dirty assessment.
1) It's never fast enough or big enough. While everything appears to remain on track, there is nothing that we can hang our hats on for this year, other than prototypes. Still if that integrated prototype can be commercially produced, the market will react positively in advance of any actual sales, it is an industry first.
2) read this, it's my post from a few weeks ago. They are still playing in two worlds but only reporting on one. That hinders our exposure and the share price
http://agoracom.com/ir/POETTechnologies/forums/discussion/topics/667273-the-two-worlds-of-poet-technologies/messages/2090039#message
3) The EBITDA statement needs clarification which I requested. If they had said they will plow money back into growing the business for the next two years and do not expect to be EBITDA positive until then, everyone would have cheered. I suspect that it what was meant but not conveyed.
Overall, the acquisition today was far more informative than the THM to me. They are building a business that can stand on its own and be extremely successful.
Bottom line I remain very optimistic but also wanting share price to reflect the value that they perceive is here.
Maybe our paths will cross sooner than later. POET has acquired DenseLight and now today BB Photonics.
http://optics.org/news/6/6/56
There is a 2 hour webcast at 9:30 AM if interested. I'm beginning to wonder if LWLG and POET may become more complimentary than competitive in the future.
Can a moderator save previous message to the archive as it is a great summary of the technology and applications?
This is an absolutely outstanding synopsis of POET provided by Abel00 from the Agora board. Must reading:
So a small re-cap for new and old investors alike..
POET-Technologies is engaged in Electronics/Photonics technologies. The company has a goal to produce a platform in which supports verticals ranging from:
Data Communications
Data Centers
Servers/Routers
FPGA optical IO
High Speed Data Comms (AOC)
LAN/SAN
Consumer
USB3.0/4.0
HDMI
High Speed Short Range Communications
Automotive and Military
LWIR/MWIR Detectors
IR Camera Illumination [850nm VCSEL arrays]
Industrial
Industrial Heating
Commercial Print
Cosmetics and Health Care
Pump Lasers
Switch LEDs
Mobility
Gesture Recognition
Non Contact Navigation
Depth Imaging – 3D Vision
Smart Pixel Arrays
But what is POET?.. Essentially POET is a proprietary process/design(stack) of Gallium Arsenide/Indium Arsenide wafers.
What differentiates POET is the "recipe" for the layers at the wafer level. A wafer can be made from Silicon, Gallium Arsenide, Indium Phosphide, etc.. It's essentially a disc made from various elements whom support a process called "etching & layering" to form various "electronics/photonics" like a processor, memory, lasers, sensors, imaging, etc..
So, POET-Technologies has patented a proprietary "stack" in which form these wafers and the ability to produce POET-components on these wafers.
Now POET-Technologies has had many ups & downs and challenges throughout the years, it's been a long journey to say the least, some of us being here for over 5 years.. Some new(and old, haha) investors might be wondering "why is it taking so long?" The short answer is: this is a gigantic technological undertaking, with many many moving parts..
In these past years it seemed the big one was always just on the horizon, eluding us quite often, but after gaining new knowledge and re-calibrating our Due Diligence, collectively, this forum amassed some pretty impressive in-dept semiconductor industry knowledge.
What we've learned these past years is... It takes many steps before POET-Technologies can accomplish a product/revenue.
...
Here's a recap of the steps the company has established:
Wafer Manufacturer(foundry) - Epiworks
This is the first step if you will, POET-Technologies takes it's "wafer recipe" to the Epiworks Foundry for the production of the base: POET-Enabled-Wafer.
Wafers are Part 1. of the secret sauce in which create the platform for POET-Enabled-Devices to be manufactured on said wafers.
Wafer stacks are highly complicated, they require a plethora of trial and error to achieve the ideal levels of all the elements that go into composing the many layers in which form the wafers themselves. POET has perfected their wafer recipe over the course of many many years.
These are finally being manufactured in a real 3rd-party Foundry(Epiworks) in current day.
http://www.poet-technologies.com/poet-technologies-and-epiworks-announce-development-and-supply-agreement/
Fab(fabrication plant) - Wavetek(3rd-Party)
Part 2 of the process is layering & etching these said wafers Epiworks manufactures to then enable POET devices, ie: VCSEL(lasers for communication, etc), Detectors(sensors for military, virtual reality, etc), FETs(transistors)
This is where Wavetek comes in, they receive the POET-Wafers and "print"(layer/etch) POET's designs for Lasers, Detectors & Transistors.
At present moment Wavetek has successfully made POET-Designed-Detectors. The results of the POET Detectors are spectacular, surpassing everything known today in the current market.
See here:
http://www.poet-technologies.com/poet-operations-update/
Were are waiting on results of the VCSELs(lasers for data communications) and FETs(transistors), these should be released very soon and the results will be very telling. Now, POET having the same base(Wafer design) for all it's devices lends to the theory that all POET devices will have very impressive metrics.
POET Development/Manufacturing Fab – ie: Denselight(To be POET owned)
Current day, POET to acquire Denselight.
POET will now have a development Lab/Fab where they can work on POET designs. With it comes revenue and distribution from Denselight Semiconductors.
http://www.poet-technologies.com/poet-to-acquire-denselight-semiconductors/
...
Key benefits of the POET platform include:
Application Performance up to 10x faster than existing technologies
Up to 90% solution power savings improvement over existing technologies (depending on application)
Flexible and integrated application solutions that can be applied to virtually any technical application, including processors, SoC, memory, digital/mobile, sensor/laser and electro-optical, among many others
POET process can be deployed into existing silicon fabs – Since POET is a CMOS friendly technology fabricated using standard lithography techniques; it could be easily integrated into current semiconductor production facilities extending the profitable utilization of fabrication equipment and production lines.
...
The final question: Have all the steps been accomplished in order to unlock NRE payments?
We are about to find out the answer to that question soon. (expected in 2016)
In my opinion, POET-Technologies is a very good risk/reward bet at the moment, being significantly de-risked, having world class leadership, and having proved one vertical already as being exceptionally better than any product in it's class currently available.
Shareholders are waiting on the VCSEL/FETs results to be out at anytime, and shareholders are waiting(finally, rightfuly-so this time, I hope!) the first NRE payment(s) or Partnership(s) that will surely come of those soon..
This is where it gets interesting.
As the great Cosmo Kramer once said: Giddy-Up.
Cheers!
Abel
ps: It would be great if the board could contribute more detailed and basic explanations of POET on top of my post, as it would serve for a great intro to the POET story for those interested.
As always: Do not take this as investment advice, always do your own Due Diligence.
No, see excellent explanation here:
http://agoracom.com/ir/POETTechnologies/forums/discussion/topics/666678-fab-ulous/messages/2088285#message
Not in any rush. Learned my lesson with POET. Until commercial production is imminent there is no reason to be too early.
Thanks Proto, I will be the first to admit when I was wrong in timing at least), so I could never be a politician. But overall I am very happy with this deal, they likely bought $40 million worth of facilities, resources, technology and production capacity for less than $2 million in cash, so that's still a good day.
Best of luck and I will look into LWLG.might have lots of questions.