The Mine That Bird of OTC traders.. also the greatest trader you've never heard of.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
All depends on what happens with Russia & what the narrative of the hour is. I am short via ETF and deep green already, so an up day here or there doesn't bother me if the overall trend continues down.
All IMO
Yup, and we are seeing the consequences of this right now.. and it will really get ugly if Putin goes in.
Fed is screwed either way. Keep it going for a select few & prices reach a point where everything implodes.. OR raise rates & have a bad recession with no guarantees that it will solve the problem.
All IMO
Especially that last Covid spending bill.. & they wanted to do yet another one too! INSANE!
IMO
& it's not all Covid connected. IMO, it's government spending & years of bad policy coming home to roost.
& if Putin goes in forget it. Oil will go through the roof, China could ally with them & cut supplies to the US in response to any sanctions making the situation even worse, etc..
All IMO
LMAO, if you say so. I trade stocks and the market. My system works because I don't put myself in a position where I could lose everything in a day.. but to each his own.
I'm not in oil currently because I mostly buy at chart lows, or short in areas that I think are near the top.. & oil is nowhere near chart lows.
And none of what you said addresses the current situation. You sound very defensive at the thought of being wrong. I could care if I'm wrong b/c I'll still be green on the trade. I just feel using a daily chart for an index trade like this, in the current environment, isn't as good a metric as it sometimes is in the OTC.
We shall see & all IMO
I've always enjoyed your interactions, feuds and commentary in the penny universe, but this ain't the OTC. The monthly & weekly look like crap IMO . & Putin doesn't care about bollinger bands.
Even if there is no invasion & everything that comes with it (sanctions, retaliation, etc.), you still have hyperinflation and rate increases to deal with. I just don't see anything positive unless you believe in the melt-up stuff that some are calling for, but I think already happened. (2020-2022)
All IMO ..& I hope there is no war but not counting on it.
My current trade as I'm envisioning it..
I am still short the S&P and, assuming the Ukraine situation goes the wrong way, am looking for new lows of somewhere between 3100 - 3900 on this next leg down,
Then I'd expect a bear market rally, followed by a continued downtrend to lower lows as stagflation takes over.
This is what I believe could happen, but even if I'm wrong.. I'm solidly green b/c I went short via ETF as soon as it started to look like Putin was serious.
-> Here's a video from the very start of the 2000-20003 bear market
Whether things play out this way again remains to be seen, but WOW there are definitely similarities to where we are now.. and inflation is far worse this time around.
We shall see & all IMO only.
I like the Australia 72 chart for a first leg down scenario. Just needs Dr. Doom added at the upper right corner!
All IMO
I also wouldn't be betting my money or a green future on Putin being a nice guy, regardless of what the latest headline of the hour might say.
All IMO
I was alive but way too young to be following the market back then.
I'm thinking this is going to be long, drawn-out and ugly. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I wouldn't be making high-risk trades with money I didn't have to lose in this environment. Market is a total clown show right now.
All IMO
People who were around for 2008 and especially 2000 have a distinct (HUGE) advantage over many newer traders who are using 2018 & 2020 as a way to gauge the current situation. Can't believe some of the stuff I was reading on twitter during today's action.
Having a basic understanding of geopolitics & history.. as well as some insight into the personalities of current world leaders is also helpful.
All IMO
P.S. Even if history doesn't repeat and this is something new.. using a 2000 era navigation & strategy has been working well for me so far.
Actual events on the ground not matching up with today's headlines.
Going to be an interesting rest of week!
All IMO
According to that chart, betting against the market seemed to have worked from 2007-2009. Fighting FED policy after that.
Also, data suggests peak put bets signify a short-term low, but who is to say the latest put data reflects the actual peak this time around?
All IMO
LMAO!
I'm short b/c I think, based on today's action, we should at least retest the lows. If nothing happens and market turns I should still be able to get out with a profit. If all hell breaks loose, then I'll let it ride.
We shall see and all IMO.
I actually think Putin is quite sane which is why I'm surprised.
Very nice list, but war is hell. Casualties will mount on both sides, Putin will become unpopular at home.. and to take the Ukraine and all the goodies on that list.. they'd likely wreck it in the process.
Would be a shame.
All IMO
I don't see how it helps Putin to invade, but wow.. if he does, and oil goes to $125 in this inflationary environment, then I don't see how the market goes up from there. Technicals look lousy now too.
Interesting week ahead!
All IMO
Mother went short the S&P into the weekend. Will be interesting to see how things play out.
All IMO.
I went short the S&P during the brief rebound during little Jakie Sullivan's speech. I view my bet against the S&P as a bet against Joke Biden, Chucky Psaki, Powell et al. I hope there is no war, but it feels so good to bet against these people! AHhhhhhhhhhh!
Green so far. Will exit quickly if things turn, but will let it ride if we continue to go downhill. Even if there is no invasion over the weekend, it sure looks like a retest of the previous lows is now coming.
We shall see & all IMO.
I'm thinking $145 oil and continued inflation will end this eventually.
We shall see & all IMO.
This is my favorite chart , but I'm smart enough not to step in front of this current crap.
When the big one does happen.. I'll be ready & swinging for the fences!
All IMO
I'm not sure what will happen, but as far as I'm concerned.. the market hasn't crashed since 2008. The 2000 crash was long and drawn-out over several years. 2020 was IMO a bull market blip b.c of covid panic. Real crashes last for years, not months.
Every time I look at the all-time monthly for the major averages, all I see is straight-up vertical since 2020!
All IMO
From past observational experience (back when I was in college..) this market is behaving almost EXACTLY like the market did in the first half of 2000. I see many traders, big and small, commenting on how crazy things are right now, but it seems few actually witnessed those days. Advantage.. ME
Whether things play out the same way remains to be seen.. but interesting nonetheless. Many also say the one reason why the market won't go down big is b/c so many people are bearish. Big crashes supposedly only happen when everyone is euphoric. Well, what if the real head fake this time is the crash that everyone sees coming actually happens? Perhaps that's the actual contrarian view this time around?
Who knows, and maybe part of my skepticism is the current state of the US right now. Also not buying the "markets can't crash in election year" crap. 2008 was an election year, and this is a mid-term election where (hopefully) most already know how things are going to go, which makes it even more meaningless.
We shall see & all IMO only.
I'm on a VERY different strategy but using the same metric to decide a path forward.
Still being extremely cautious here & not rushing into anything. Not convinced Amazon's numbers will be bad after the UPS earnings.
Moral of the story..
-> No need to be the first one in!
All IMO
Want to be sure it doesn't go to 460.. if not even higher. I don't trust this market in any direction right now.
I mistimed & was stuck in the DOG for a while a few years back. Only made a profit b/c of the dividend!
All IMO
Because I want to maximize profit and minimize potential risk ..& NASDAQ & S&P will probably be the ones I'll be short.. when that day comes.
All IMO
Agree, just wish I knew how much this is going to go up before it all implodes.
Currently watching 14,400, 15,100 & 15,500 on Nasdaq.
4500, 4600 & 4800 on S&P
Using extreme caution in the short-term.
All IMO
"It is pricing everyone out of everything"
I've been in the market for a new v-hickle, and I offered full MSRP on a Colorado Z71 midnight, a Tacoma, and a Ranger Tremor. All four dealerships turned me down, one with an FU, ridiculous counter-offer.. and one who wanted me to pay an extra 3k for being an "out-of-state" resident!
Several months later... three of the four dealerships came crawling back (Including the FU dealer) and two of the cars I made offers on are still on the lots. That tells me the pool of people willing to pay way above MSRP is drying up.. along with their sales.
I amicably told them all to get bent.
All IMO
What a great break & second chance for those of us who weren't paying attention to the big boards in January!
Now, I am -> LASER-FOCUSED
..regardless of what happens in the 450-460 zone going forward.
All IMO
Interesting. 2018 didn't have out-of-control inflation or a federal govt that was hostile to the oil industry.(so prolonged $100+ oil was averted.)
My worst-case view is an initial fall to the middle 50 band on the MONTHLY, then a multi-month rally, followed by a continued downtrend. Think 2001-2003.. though on a much grander, 2008-like scale. (See Japan stagflation era)
That said, I am being VERY CAUTIOUS and not rushing into anything. I called the 2000 and 2008 crashes almost perfectly (didn't have the funds back then to do anything!), but I also thought the market was done in late 2019 & was wrong.
We shall see & all IMO only.
Welcome back, TOAD & good morning all..
Being quiet & stealthy this time around with SSFT.. sort of like the Bengals were this season.
After taking a few big hits, would like to see the overall market become calm, cool and stable for a bit, like Joe Burrow.
All IMO
LMAO.. I don't think so.
I have a roadmap for either scenario, just would prefer to see any real collapse hold off for a few more months.
IMO
Hope this happens. All I need is this POS market to stabilize and sputter sideways-up over the next 3-6 months for my plan to be golden!
IMO
You too. I am being what I call cautiously aggressive. Aggressive in low-risk plays that I am familiar with, but keeping a lot of cash as a hedge in case the overall market completely implodes! All a matter of timing with everything.
We shall see & all IMO.
Last time I took a starter at .12 - .13 and added a bunch at .05 to .06 range. I sold at .25 to .28 because the rsi was in the 90s and quarterly filings suggested some dilution to raise capital might be coming. When it continued up to the 40s I thought I had screwed up and was considering rebuying when it went back to the .20s. (Went elsewhere instead)
Now they have more capital and you'd think whatever is going on with those previous catalysts is moving further along. Guess that's the gamble, (along with trying to time chart lows) & we'll find out eventually!
All IMO only.
Oh I like the chart here too!
Like I said once before about that other play named after a crustacean that I followed for two years but never bought.. I still have the same gut feeling with this one.. with the right news or catalyst.
Only concern, like last time, is future of overall market.
We shall see & all IMO
Much more enjoyable for me this time around as well because I'm being #smart and #patient. Last time I took a starter way too early.
SSFT seems to be in a better cash position this time around.. so IF some catalyst or news makes it move, perhaps it will be more meaningful and hold any new range next time.
I still like it for the same reasons I did originally, and I'm currently focusing on higher quality QB stocks with actual businesses in this current environment.
All IMO
I dunno, DeerBalls.........
Not really a fan of Google, but I would like to hear more about Fidelity and especially Delaware Electric.. as the Electric Company was one of my favorite properties in Monopoly back in the day.. & last we heard the "vintage" Sonabots were doing pretty good.
Trying to figure this stuff out is like trying to figure out who'll win on Saturday. Cincinnati & Raiders both can beat any team in league, and also get whooped by any team in the league. Pats & Bills will be in the arctic tundra, but I digress..
I will say, I do like that the company has more cash now, and -> gamification sounds pretty cool!
Time will tell with all of these questions.. just like a soap opera.
All IMO