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What's your point?
Agree, well said. I might add that one should never sell out just because it’s gone up XX% or because it is overbought. Short squeeze induced runs don’t usually end until they exhaust themselves on heavy volume as prices surge to extremes, similar to what we saw February – March 2015 (highlighted area)
Note how the stock stayed overbought (RSI - green highlight) for over a month as volume continued to ramp up. Even after momentum was spent and the pps had topped out (A), it still managed to retest the top on inertia (B). That’s the time to sell.
We are in a similar short squeeze right now and I don’t expect it to end for awhile. It may even continue until interim. As it all unfolds, don’t be surprised to see some big players grab a position or new firms initiate coverage with higher price targets. Buying will continue to feed on buying as the price rise sets up multiple technical events such as a golden cross (orange circled area). This is what we have waited for, gotta trust it.
HD,
You don't get it do you? We are in a short squeeze, not a pump and dump situation.
Even though Raf fails to see that, management does not. They know shorts are on the ropes and don't kid yourself they can and will time PRs to move the tape.
Take a look at QLT Inc. – Management stepped in to support their stock price by announcing a stock repurchase program just as the pps was poised to drop below support.
AMRN management (if they're smart) will keep the pressure on the short position up to whenever interim is revealed.
Could this happen?
I’ve always been suspicious of the proposed 6 month time frame for DMC evaluation. It seems like management is being strategically deceptive by being completely truthful about their conservative expectations. By under promising they have set the stage to screw the shorts and surprise the market.
Is there a possibility the DMC has had ample time to gather/analyze what they need to in order to make a determination – especially if all secondary end points were met with overwhelming efficacy? If so, is it possible they have notified AMRN and management is planning to surprise us as early as tomorrow?
Tuesday,….Banzai!!
even the slightest weakness is getting bought :)
More like "End of the day" we'll see more buying activity :)
AMRN usually spikes and retreats on news like NCE. The fact that we witnessed a sustained rise all week made many wonder if something further was coming in the form of news.
Hedge Fund manager:
“Good morning, what’s on the radar today?”
Board:
“AMRN had a 21.8% run last week with no news. Longs are going to be nervous if there is no apparent reason behind the move.”
Hedge Fund manager:
“Can we run the stops?”
Board:
“Yes, we are expecting light volume Monday morning in front of a scheduled presentation on Tuesday.”
Hedge Fund manager:
“Force the bid down and pick up 100,000 shares. Hold them through Tuesday.”
Board:
“Done.”
Raf,
Hayward, good question.
Great post Marzan. I agree, the real benefit of the NCE announcement was how it represents a change of character for the FDA, who has delayed this for years even in the face of a judgement to do otherwise. I think it also gives us further confidence that the settlement might actually have a positive effect on Amarin's future. To avoid total embarrassment the FDA is preparing for a softer crash landing once R-IT results are revealed. The market is waking up to this fact.
Thanks, I appreciate that. I'm hopeful the light that's beginning to illuminate AMRN will continue to shine.
Friday’s horrible jobs report surprised the market and abruptly changed investor’s appetites for risky equities. This report all but took the prospects of another interest rate hike off the table for now, causing the dollar to plummet, gold to soar and shorts to be squeezed out of positions with high short interest ratios such as biotech’s, specialty retail, semiconductor, etc..
Take a look at the chart below showing stocks in the Drug Manufactures group with the highest 5-day gains:
Traders scanning for squeeze plays (high short interest ratios + 5 day gains) are going to find AMRN at the top of the list with this beautiful pattern. We are about to see buying feed on covering, causing demand to explode.
It’s about time…
Show me your entry data to prove what you say. Truth is you were probably long AMRN way before it plummeted to $1.53, then doubled down at that price. After all, why should we trust anyone who won't make good on a lost bet ($100.00)?
Jesse Livermore had a working philosophy for trading securities that emphasized increasing the size of one's position as it goes in the right direction and cutting losses quickly. Have you done that Raf? No, you've done just the opposite. So don't jab me about being wrong.
Jesse Livermore loved this phrase, "selling down to the sleeping point." AMRN has reached that point. He's quoted as saying, “All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.”
He also said, “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”
Just reporting the facts. I don't make the rules smarty pants.
Caddiedad, Sorry, but my post said nothing of AMRN or dire consequences (just the opposite). My post focused on QLTI, MACK, KERX, BCRX, and JAZZ and the strikingly similar price behavior after a positive binary event. Your answer to why they all share the same pullback, higher high/higher low characteristics was “manipulation?”
There is such a thing as opportunity cost, the degree of which will be determined by when/where you sell AMRN post R-IT. Will you pick a target, then realize you could have held out for 5x more or will you cave on a swift retrace from your almost reached target, settling for a less than desired gain only to find out soon after it reversed and went on a full sprint up. These questions IMO are answered by analyzing other stocks that show similar characteristics to each other when being accumulated by large volumes (post gap on news). Instead, you chose yet again to make a rude response.
Caddiedad,
Use this information as you see fit... history repeats.
Bad news, good news, bad news, good news:
I’ve been back-testing exit strategies based on biotech stocks that gaped and ran on news. I’ve discovered some interesting common themes.
1. Bad news: Microcaps priced similar to AMRN, with negative earnings, similar dollar volumes and similar short interest, all suffered selloffs to their 52wk lows 1-2 months before binary events. So yes, AMRN with its vulnerable volume characteristics and lack of conviction in breaking out above its 200MA will likely follow the same pattern.
2. Good News: Each saw huge gaps on the news event. If a halt is in the cards, we should also see a colossal squeeze induced gap and run up to $17.00 before a pullback.
3. Bad News: Each retraced their initial post-news rallies by approximately 50%.
4. Good News: If the retrace was no further than 50%, a series of higher highs / lower highs ensued over several years compounding share prices.
e.g. JAZZ (Jazz Pharmaceuticals):
If a position was sold following the first violation of the 20MA (post breakout), it would have led to a profit of 209% (.55 to $8.38).
If the position were held through the retrace and only sold once the first lower high / lower low traced, it would have yielded a gain of 20,861% (.55 to $115.29)
Summary: In the end, we’re all going to look beat up like “Barry” in the Big Short, but we’ll be rich ;)
Maybe means maybe,.. or maybe not. Haha...You are so desperate. Just like Barry on the Big Short, this house of pain is eating you inside out. It's hard to feel sorry for such a smart-A.
"Care to counter FFS? Your TA won't ever measure up in this scenario and thus you are Flayed Fish Subject in this tight, EPA educated group."
Yes actually. Since you now seem attached to historical fiction as your new mast of hope, consider the trauma those mortgage default believers faced (financially, and health wise) before their gamble paid off. Did you also notice once the knowledge was out how the big banks manipulated the price of derivatives to shake them out of their positions? Believe me, if you have proudly doubled and tripled down simply because you're beating your chest about how much EPA knowledge you've gained, you most certainly will get shaken out if the price breaks $.78. That's how gambler psychology works when you fear the sky is falling. More information and knowledge about the drug and its efficacy does not fortify you against such a scenario, but a hedge will. Ever considered that or are you just too certain that you know too much about the R-IT result? Why don't you and your "tight, EPA educated group" engage in discussion about how to hedge, instead of throwing mud in the face of those who have a more cautious view?
Kiwi, Daryl Guppy is a little fish who got gobbled up. Look at the date of his article sarcastically making fun of the Death Cross. Now look at the purple boxed area in the chart below. He got it so wrong. The Death Cross comes in two forms 20/50 and 50/200. The latter is too latent for the markets we are talking about. The crossovers in August last year and again in December signaled major selloffs. Now we are faced with the same pattern only this time it is the third lower high of a triple top.
Nice HD,.. er, JL). Do you realize that if you really are Hungarian and live in Hungary, your post was written at 3:56am! LOL! Talk about fixation. For a nice guy who always politely puts posters in their place, ending with "Best," you seem a little rattled tonight...or this morning.
That is because you refuse to provide an answer that justifies the current stock price. My response was in regards to management and whether they have handled the affairs of this company in a quality fashion or not (post ANCHOR adcom). The pps pretty much sums it up don't you think?
Now get some sleep ":>)
“It's priced in" as you like to say, right Kiwi? Management could have raised operational funds at a higher price level to promote the indication they already have (through partnerships, etc.). That would have been the prudent approach to climbing out of this FDA induced hole. Why didn’t they do more to ramp Rx’s / boost profitability while waiting for R-IT? GSK’s Lovaza managed to reach 1 bill. in sales with the same indication and an inferior product. Amarin's had almost 4 years to promote Vascepa sales. The stock should be 6.00-7.00 based on earnings alone – especially with the 1A win. Sadly though, ask any doctor and you'll discover they haven’t even heard of Vascepa – wow! That is not good management. Certainly not worthy of their current compensation.
Management had the opportunity to support the stock but didn’t. Instead they’ve allowed it all to come down to a make-or-break moment at a time when the window of opportunity may be closing as "Death Cross's" come into play:
BioChica - wrong, but keep hoping.
Actually, there is nothing bullish about today's price action. What it did was awesome: broke to the upside on news. But that is over shadowed by what it couldn't do: hold above resistance.
After upthrusting the 200dMA, it proceeded to sell off, falling below the 200-, 20-dMA and down trendline. At the end of the day, a high volume bearish wick was left behind (one of the best signals to short).
See all the spikes sticking up on the last four bars? That represents too many sellers absorbing the buying. If it continues long enough, a drop in the bid will result as bulls fail to achieve any price gain form so much effort. The price will keep dropping until it finds new demand or perma-bulls who are willing to double down again.
I said all along, if the breakout fails, it is a "Hound of the Baskervilles" situation.
Do you hear the dog barking Sherlock?
Polio, Just gaming probabilities and calculating hope rather that blindly possessing it.
Don't underestimate the impact of a market crash led by the most risky sector: Biotech.
Funny - you are so into "predictions." Markets change my friend and outlooks do as well based on price behavior. This current market is teetering on the brink of a nasty valuation adjustment (FALL!).
Did you buy any LABD insurance yet?
substance please :)