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Jesse Livermore had a working philosophy for trading securities that emphasized increasing the size of one's position as it goes in the right direction and cutting losses quickly. Have you done that Raf? No, you've done just the opposite. So don't jab me about being wrong.
Jesse Livermore loved this phrase, "selling down to the sleeping point." AMRN has reached that point. He's quoted as saying, “All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.”
He also said, “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”
Just reporting the facts. I don't make the rules smarty pants.
Caddiedad, Sorry, but my post said nothing of AMRN or dire consequences (just the opposite). My post focused on QLTI, MACK, KERX, BCRX, and JAZZ and the strikingly similar price behavior after a positive binary event. Your answer to why they all share the same pullback, higher high/higher low characteristics was “manipulation?”
There is such a thing as opportunity cost, the degree of which will be determined by when/where you sell AMRN post R-IT. Will you pick a target, then realize you could have held out for 5x more or will you cave on a swift retrace from your almost reached target, settling for a less than desired gain only to find out soon after it reversed and went on a full sprint up. These questions IMO are answered by analyzing other stocks that show similar characteristics to each other when being accumulated by large volumes (post gap on news). Instead, you chose yet again to make a rude response.
Caddiedad,
you remain certain that we're following this magical, yellow brick road trading pattern as if on GPS. Illusory at best.
Use this information as you see fit... history repeats.
Bad news, good news, bad news, good news:
I’ve been back-testing exit strategies based on biotech stocks that gaped and ran on news. I’ve discovered some interesting common themes.
1. Bad news: Microcaps priced similar to AMRN, with negative earnings, similar dollar volumes and similar short interest, all suffered selloffs to their 52wk lows 1-2 months before binary events. So yes, AMRN with its vulnerable volume characteristics and lack of conviction in breaking out above its 200MA will likely follow the same pattern.
2. Good News: Each saw huge gaps on the news event. If a halt is in the cards, we should also see a colossal squeeze induced gap and run up to $17.00 before a pullback.
3. Bad News: Each retraced their initial post-news rallies by approximately 50%.
4. Good News: If the retrace was no further than 50%, a series of higher highs / lower highs ensued over several years compounding share prices.
e.g. JAZZ (Jazz Pharmaceuticals):
If a position was sold following the first violation of the 20MA (post breakout), it would have led to a profit of 209% (.55 to $8.38).
If the position were held through the retrace and only sold once the first lower high / lower low traced, it would have yielded a gain of 20,861% (.55 to $115.29)
Summary: In the end, we’re all going to look beat up like “Barry” in the Big Short, but we’ll be rich ;)
Maybe means maybe,.. or maybe not. Haha...You are so desperate. Just like Barry on the Big Short, this house of pain is eating you inside out. It's hard to feel sorry for such a smart-A.
"Care to counter FFS? Your TA won't ever measure up in this scenario and thus you are Flayed Fish Subject in this tight, EPA educated group."
Yes actually. Since you now seem attached to historical fiction as your new mast of hope, consider the trauma those mortgage default believers faced (financially, and health wise) before their gamble paid off. Did you also notice once the knowledge was out how the big banks manipulated the price of derivatives to shake them out of their positions? Believe me, if you have proudly doubled and tripled down simply because you're beating your chest about how much EPA knowledge you've gained, you most certainly will get shaken out if the price breaks $.78. That's how gambler psychology works when you fear the sky is falling. More information and knowledge about the drug and its efficacy does not fortify you against such a scenario, but a hedge will. Ever considered that or are you just too certain that you know too much about the R-IT result? Why don't you and your "tight, EPA educated group" engage in discussion about how to hedge, instead of throwing mud in the face of those who have a more cautious view?
Kiwi, Daryl Guppy is a little fish who got gobbled up. Look at the date of his article sarcastically making fun of the Death Cross. Now look at the purple boxed area in the chart below. He got it so wrong. The Death Cross comes in two forms 20/50 and 50/200. The latter is too latent for the markets we are talking about. The crossovers in August last year and again in December signaled major selloffs. Now we are faced with the same pattern only this time it is the third lower high of a triple top.
Nice HD,.. er, JL). Do you realize that if you really are Hungarian and live in Hungary, your post was written at 3:56am! LOL! Talk about fixation. For a nice guy who always politely puts posters in their place, ending with "Best," you seem a little rattled tonight...or this morning.
That is because you refuse to provide an answer that justifies the current stock price. My response was in regards to management and whether they have handled the affairs of this company in a quality fashion or not (post ANCHOR adcom). The pps pretty much sums it up don't you think?
Now get some sleep ":>)
“It's priced in" as you like to say, right Kiwi? Management could have raised operational funds at a higher price level to promote the indication they already have (through partnerships, etc.). That would have been the prudent approach to climbing out of this FDA induced hole. Why didn’t they do more to ramp Rx’s / boost profitability while waiting for R-IT? GSK’s Lovaza managed to reach 1 bill. in sales with the same indication and an inferior product. Amarin's had almost 4 years to promote Vascepa sales. The stock should be 6.00-7.00 based on earnings alone – especially with the 1A win. Sadly though, ask any doctor and you'll discover they haven’t even heard of Vascepa – wow! That is not good management. Certainly not worthy of their current compensation.
Management had the opportunity to support the stock but didn’t. Instead they’ve allowed it all to come down to a make-or-break moment at a time when the window of opportunity may be closing as "Death Cross's" come into play:
BioChica - wrong, but keep hoping.
Actually, there is nothing bullish about today's price action. What it did was awesome: broke to the upside on news. But that is over shadowed by what it couldn't do: hold above resistance.
After upthrusting the 200dMA, it proceeded to sell off, falling below the 200-, 20-dMA and down trendline. At the end of the day, a high volume bearish wick was left behind (one of the best signals to short).
See all the spikes sticking up on the last four bars? That represents too many sellers absorbing the buying. If it continues long enough, a drop in the bid will result as bulls fail to achieve any price gain form so much effort. The price will keep dropping until it finds new demand or perma-bulls who are willing to double down again.
I said all along, if the breakout fails, it is a "Hound of the Baskervilles" situation.
Do you hear the dog barking Sherlock?
Polio, Just gaming probabilities and calculating hope rather that blindly possessing it.
Don't underestimate the impact of a market crash led by the most risky sector: Biotech.
Funny - you are so into "predictions." Markets change my friend and outlooks do as well based on price behavior. This current market is teetering on the brink of a nasty valuation adjustment (FALL!).
Did you buy any LABD insurance yet?
substance please :)
Caddiedad, why do you post this? Mog has schooled you. You don't have reasonable answers to debate him.
It's been entertained watching Mog push around Hd (JL et al), mobydick, alwayswatching, raf, jfmcrr, benny and century. Most of his arguments make sense, but nobody agrees because they lack substance to debate him (price always wins). Talk about being "double blinded"
Mobydick, What a ridiculous question. Of course it's priced in - that's the problem!! You validated Mog's quote. It is indeed disturbing that the share price has fallen so far to find new shareholder demand. Why is there no BP interest at this level? "Serious question"
HD (and others), regarding Mog's posts:
You never said any concrete thing (or anything) just react / criticize if somebody was wrong / missed something ...
So, if you think that you have a realistic view it is wrong since - as I said above - you did not share any concrete view ...
"AMRN isn't affected by the price of oil, gold, the VIX, 10 year Treasury yield, the dollar index, Hillary or Trump. It's the science and facts of R-IT. This has been stated here everyday since adcom."
You are overdoing it with the pessimism in my eyes. You highlighted the triple top on the S&P but you failed to acknowledge the triple bottom.
Why might the IBB have "a bit of a bounce around 249-250 before resuming back up again"? Because that is where I see support and it is where I predict big buying volume will come in. The bounce around refers to the churn as retail traders scratch their heads trying to figure out which way we go next before it finally dawns on them that it is back up.
one, I wish I could believe what you say but I hardly think the "science" is impacting the broad market or the Biotech index. I continue to hope the science will eventually rescue AMRN stock price, but to simply say I am "wrong because of the science" is more subjective than objective.
Objective opinions please.
FF: with all do respect, you are seeing things if you think the long term IBB chart is a symmetrical triangle. But that confirms what I said before about the adverse effect of a bias and its tendency to obscure objectivity.
As for this:
I have Invest89898 down for a $1: "So I predict no major buying and mild selling until any real good news comes out, and since that may be many months from now the stock price will slowly drift towards 1."
And my darling sweetheart Moggie thinks $3 is pure fantasy: "The thought of a run to near $10 before the DMC decision is so unrealistic its laughable. Even this getting to $3 is highly highly highly unlikely given the balance sheet and cash flows issues that plague the stock and as of yet have been ignored by management."
Lets see how you do. I'll be tracking the share price carefully on its way to $10 using the TA so ill be able to keep you all informed.
FF, Tell me your objective rationale for why this might happen:
Yeah looks like the IBB will have a bit of a bounce around 249-250 before resuming back up again.
FF: one can always show something bullish about any chart if emotionally biased. Sorry, I choose to be stone cold objective with respect to what happened last week.
I posted of the importance of the 200MA:
We lost that key level. As a result prices were raided.
As for the supporting broader index? You are flat wrong. There is nothing bullish about the IBB trend. Your chart is a joke. Your "lower ascending trend line" is a neck line depending on how you choose to "see" it.
The weekly chart bearish:
FF, if you want to succeed at trading, include the 'open' on your bar chart (can't trade with one arm behind your back), then try to be a bit more objective as you look at trends. A bias will always obscure that.
MrMainBreak: not out to call anything. You all want to sling mud while no one has responded to my statement,
Rarely is this talked about, but there is a little demon in the back of everyone’s mind that whispers, “But what if the FDA tries to get even for the lawsuits?” Isn’t it curious how they took their foot off AMRNs neck, let it rise to the 200MA then raided the price like never before the 1A “settlement”? Don’t kid yourselves. The powers that be have connections to a cabal who can do what they want, and when they want to this stock price– especially now that management has developed a “chronic cough.”
Marzan: "This FFS is a trader wanting us to keep buying then and he must have shorted at $1.99 but now he wants us to keep selling until it hits $.69 to cover. What an interesting guy he is. The world is full of gamers like him but I'm here to remain thru the end of Amarin."
I'm not a gamer and I'm not short. I do not short stocks below 3.00. I don't have an agenda and I'm not here to entice you to do anything. I warned from the start, that if this pattern fails, there could be something drastically wrong behind the curtain. No one can deny this stock walked up stairs the past 11 weeks and then fell out of a window. I’m concerned by the fact that no one is stepping in to support it (except Mobydick). Why is that? There is such a divergence between the promising science and the current price level. All the speculation of 967 timing, the probable placebo rate and estimated RRR, yet no one is noticing. Why? Then there’s management. I understand the legal ramifications of over promising and under delivering as JZ did, but JL did just the opposite at a time when the pps is vulnerable. I'm as frustrated as the rest of you. I was stopped out of half my position and will sell more if it breaks the lower edge of the triangle. The price needs to be defended or it won't be pretty. That's a simple fact. Don't stone the messenger.
RAF: Duh! +24% banked on this trade. Could have been more, but the the pattern gave a head fake.
I'm sorry you didn't read the rest of my post. It basically just said I'll be back to buy your shares when you capitulate at .69/share.
Have a pleasant weekend ;)
TA reveals AMRN systemic breakdown. Raf, you want HDG to give you the straight scoop on TA? – LOL. This may or may not come as a surprise to you but HDG is an alias of JL. It is laughable how he vacillates in and out of a strong Hungarian accent. The giveaway: “C’mon Man!” What Hungarian uses an NFL term? This board has been duped. In my opinion, we are all sleep walking in a stupor of endless hope that the AMRN dream will deliver.
TA keeps you nimble and flexible, governed by set rules that force tactical changes. FA on the other hand keeps you tied to a mast of hope, while the ship sinks.
So what is the TA message after last week’s developments, and how does it mirror the fundamentals looking forward? It’s all reflected in the last 4 RED daily candles (these bars are programmed to display strong bearish momentum):
This has never happened before to AMRNs stock price. Nowhere in the history of this daily chart can you find 3 much less 4 long range red price bars that traced back to back to back to back. Some can argue that the volume wasn’t that large, BUT the ease to which prices plummeted through support was alarming. Oh, but wait a minute, Kiwi, Walatene, Akanz, et al., finally went long. There’s hope! Ha,ha, a poster posing as a lot of things (street smart isn’t one of them) steps up and courageously catches a falling knife and everyone’s supposed to feel comforted? Besides, now he is describing his investment as a call option? Hmmm, that’s what JL used to say. Is the missing JL also posing as Kiwi?
Rarely is this talked about, but there is a little demon in the back of everyone’s mind that whispers, “But what if the FDA tries to get even for the lawsuits?” Isn’t it curious how they took their foot off AMRNs neck, let it rise to the 200MA then raided the price like never before the 1A “settlement”? Don’t kid yourselves. The powers that be have connections to a cabal who can do what they want, and when they want to this stock price– especially now that management has developed a “chronic cough.”
Raf, if you insist on taking TA advice from a Hungarian, take it from Thomas Bullkowski who wrote:
Busted patterns (when the breakout is in one direction only to see price reverse and breakout in the opposite direction) often result in strong moves.
Mog: Have you ever heard the phrase, "priced in?" LOL
But hey, thanks, you have been a great contrarian indicator for my AMRN investment. Perfect entry signal when guys like you show up to twist the knife, say I told you so, and yell the sky is falling!
Vest: On the heels of a bull run from 1.37 to 1.99, AMRNs stock smacked the upper channel line and pulled back beneath the 200MA the day before the earnings report. Unless management surprised with news or earnings, the stock was setup to fall back to support. This was a classic bull trap (happens all the time during earnings season). The fact that the report was more negative than positive forced longs to tighten stops. The MMs ran those stops, dropped the bid and the stock plummeted down to triple support.
If you were on the sidelines and missed the opportunity to take a long position the last time the pps pulled back to the 50MA in March, when and at what point would you re-consider an entry? The obvious answer is at triple support. This is the major “bus stop” where shorts will get off, patient longs (including DMC analysists, their friends and family) will get on. Don’t be surprised to see volume ramp up as this takes place.
If not, and we see the price flush down the toilet, then (as I’ve said before) we have a “Hound of the Baskervilles” situation (why didn’t the dog bark?). In other words, the fundamental story has been derailed; something is wrong with the trial.
Bullkowski says this, “Busted patterns (when the breakout is in one direction only to see price reverse and breakout in the opposite direction) often result in strong moves.” Given that situation, all longs should reconsider the value of holding AMRN stock.
Thank you. I only wish you could do the same ;)
yep, pattern not violated.
remember mog, protect with a stop loss this time because the 50 day moving average is where strong accumulation occurs, just like it did in March.
I agree. good post Jeerio.
Today’s events forced me to admit I was wrong even though I wanted it to happen so bad. I learned long ago you can't will stock prices up or down,.. not even with hyperbole :)
Correct me if you think I'm wrong, but I don't see any need to panic based on today’s price action.
We bounced off triple support of the rising 50dMA, up trendline and the 50% retrace level. Some weak hands capitulated, but much of the selling was absorbed by short covering as key support kept the intermediate uptrend intact (note what happened the last time 3 red candles traced in March. Said another way, magma retreated (yes I was wrong, there wasn't an explosion) but the volcano is not dead. It continues to rumble beneath the surface. We’ll see what shorts do if the aforementioned support holds.