is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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This is really interesting, if it is for real... and a huge boost to the stock price. Check this out...
http://www.slashfilm.com/2008/06/06/leonardo-dicaprio-is-nolan-bushnell-in-atari/
Just a note on recent financials posted. I can't reproduce the link (technically-challenged) but I noticed that SG&A was reduced in the qtr ending April 01 (most recent) vs qtr ending in January. Peaked at 21xx that qtr. Was 17xx last qtr. Good sign.
Dates, Master Netman? Last time they hired waitstaff was when the stock price went nuts....
you are right about that one. That was an extremely stupid post. All you have to do is look a their revenue numbers and see the increase over 3 months. I the uWink restaurant was unpopular or a flash in the pan, those numbers would not be there. Stupid post.
sorry I can't read. Must be those gasoline fumes...
a date? show us.. I did not see it..
s___ I am excited..
*applaud*
Well, you are perfectly welcome to your opinion. Everybody is. Notice that I did not respond to your statements about your theories for UWKI's stock price movement. That means I had no questions, maybe I disagreed or not, but mainly that I just did not feel any particular desire to.
And you are welcome to post your "disproofs" to anything I post.
If anybody on this board has any questions for me on my stock search methodology and how uWink looks right now, I will gladly answer. Otherwise, I will keep it to myself. In fact, I can post my top 5-10 stocks in the technology sector right now, in light of that methodology. I keep them in a binder handy at all times, along with all of my trades and periodic research, so it would take me no more than 1/2 hour.
Good luck to you.
There are no proveable reasons I could give for a stock price's movement. All I can do is observe from past behaviour (charting) and make decisions based on criteria about what is best for me to do with my funds. Those decisions, applied to the market, could predict movement. That is what I will post. ALso, takign into account that such things as "profit-taking" will occur, but that once again is charting. Charting, like anything else, is not infallible on it;s own.
Hence, no call about future stock direction is right nor wrong. I have learned that decisions are only a guess, an educated better than average guess at best. I would not assume I am any smarter than that, but it does give someone an edge.
So if you are looking for proof from me, you will not get it.
Tell me something Raw, if this negative information is so baseless, why did the stock go from $10.00 plus last year to a low of 1.20? That is -1000%% Over the last 10 years the chart is unstable and downward, with weird spikes. Seems to me that speaks for itself. Just wondering....
Provide one instance when I have had a problem with someone posting factual information... ?? I challenge you.
I always welcome factual information. what i don't have time for is opinions that are not based on facts, name-calling, derogatory remarks,etc. Even when that poster copied some material a few posts back from the 10-Q, I merely asked if it was his original material... a fair question. I had no problem with him copying something from the 10-Q, it just did not occur to me that that was what he did. I asked him to clarify because I was interested, not because I had a problem.. I then got an LMAO-type statement from another poster, which I just ignored. The problem does not lie with me.
Netman:
I am surprised that you would post something from company-published material like that. Not that is is wrong, quite to the contrary. In this case, in the case of uWink, I think they are actually being conservative. It is just that in general, nothing replaces original research or comparison. Reading company news , financial statements, and financial projections is misleading. They always put way too positive a spin on it. That is why a small investor must go to impartial unbiased sources for financial information, and set firm criteria for buying/selling from which he/she does not waver.
In my early years I invested in a few companies on such a basis, before I learned to be choosy (discerning). They now sit in my account untradeable, and annoying me. When I look back at some of the financial information and projections I read, it was b.s. My reasons for buying were b.s.
Let me say again, I cannot accuse uWink of that. Just a general statement. Original research, proforma calculations are lots more reliable in my view than that. Wish I could actually visit this restaurant...
New blog post.
http://blog.uwink.com/2008/05/19/restaurant-credit-card-fraud-skimming/
Just in case, here is the text. Just so you all know, it is not me who wrote this, it is taken directly from the article. I do not own a uWink restaurant. I am not an expert on credit card fraud. I rarely even use my cards.. enough already? Curious if the above link works.
nice to see some more regular activity.
Restaurant Credit Card Fraud (”Skimming”)
PROBLEM: Credit card fraud is on the rise and the process known as “Skimming” has been an issue for many restaurants. At restaurants, your credit card physically leaves your hands, and that is the gateway leading to the fraud. Remember when you use to give your credit card to the cashier at the grocery/department store? Not any more you don’t. Because companies more and more are concerned with the privacy of their customer’s payment information and for good reason. So now companies make sure the credit card never leaves their customer’s hand and the cashier doesn’t have a chance to even see the card. See this article: Credit Card Fraud at Restaurants
uWink Solution: At uWink, your credit card NEVER leaves your hand. Swipe it right there at the touch screen terminal at your table. It confirms the amount on the screen and shows you exactly how much you will be charged. No one else touches your card.
(This by the way is the same touch screen terminal that lets you order your food and drinks right from the table!)
Now that’s service! That’s a uWink Solution.
This entry was posted on Monday, May 19th, 2008 at 5:33 pm and is fi
Based on the following analysis, with 3 restaurants, they will almost be profitable.
Did this in a spreadsheet in about 10 minutes.
Woodland Hills is 5400 Sq. Ft. Using the revenue number, gives $101/sq ft. for the qtr. CGS is 30% of Revenue.
Now apply that to H&H (7200 sq ft) and Mountain View (7000 sq. ft.) Use the sq ft. number above to give revenues and the 30% to give CGS for each restaurant. Total combined Gross profit from all 3 restaurants is now $1385k. They are still down 300k/qtr (Operating Loss).
Now get creative. Assume that the new locations are in prime real estate (not a mall) and will attract huge crowds. Increase the revenue/sq ft to 135$. Now they are profitable by 20k/qtr. Make it realistic by increasing the CGS (higher rent?). Increase to 35%. Now they are only losing 70k/qtr.
In all of this I am assuming that the O/H (SG&A) remains constant. I think that is a fair assumption. They have sized themselves for 3 restaurants.
Bottom line is, they will be able to get by quite nicely with 3 restaurants indefinitely, even if they eventually have to tighten up on expenses. From the point of view of stock price, it will be based on the expectation that franchising will work out. Expect a nice pop. But be realistic, it might or might not happen. If he is an entrepreneur, he will not be satisfied with a situation that does not work out in a spectacular fashion. This has been years in the making. He will try another approach if he is not successful in a year. I also suspect that he has to show a qtr or two if stable operation (breaking even). Right now he is losing money. Be prepared for the price to stabilize after these puppies are open and if you want to be cautious, sell some just in case.
But, looking at Burn Rate to date is not realistic. You have to factor in another 1M this qtr invested into the other place in MV. After that, he will be up and running... franchising becomes the issue, then he will either explode or...
Comments? Opinions?
They could easily cut this down if they had to. Restaurants are very profitable. I would suggest maybe some of that "salaries" are R&D expenses, which is usually a separate line item for a high tech company. This may be a nice way of hiding it and part of posturing themselves as a restaurant business when actually they are a software company. This is the major reason why they are not currently profitable.
NOTE 7 - COMPONENTS OF SELLING, GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES
The major components of selling, general and administrative expenses for the
three months ended April 1, 2008 consisted of the following:
Professional fees $ 125,562
Rent 79,676
Restaurant operating expenses 135,490
Product development 110,478
Salary expense 668,384
Employee stock option expense 322,536
Depreciation and amortization 86,622
Other 171,624
----------
$1,700,372
==========
Figures from latest financial statements:
THREE MONTH PERIODS ENDED
-----------------------------------
APRIL 1, 2008 APRIL 3, 2007
--------------- ---------------
NET SALES $ 545,193 $ 578,876
COST OF SALES 165,407 198,128
--------------- ---------------
GROSS PROFIT 379,787 380,748
--------------- ---------------
OPERATING EXPENSES
Selling, general and administrative expenses 1,700,372 1,658,794
--------------- ---------------
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 1,700,372 1,658,794
--------------- ---------------
LOSS FROM OPERATIONS (1,320,585) (1,278,046)
--------------- ---------------
How the hell can their SG&A be so high (1.7M). With this it is pretty hard to do a Pro Forma because to me this does not make sense. What are their SG&A expenses going to be with 3 restaurants. Seems to me the restaurants are doing great.. with 3 of them they may just break even. Business people do not generally like to buy technology from money-losing companies that may not be around to provide ongoing support.
How can they be spending so much SG&A? One would think that they could trim that down and become profitable with 3 restaurants. I would have thought their main cost would be in the restaurants themselves (CGS). Or in R&D, which is usually a biggie for technology companies. Unless they are trying to hide R&D expenses in this...
By the way the 1M investment appears in the cash flow statement clearly as being invested in the new restaurant.
Your math does not quite work. They spent something like 1M on the new restaurant in the last qtr (1-time expense). Stands to reason, seeing as it is a "showcase". What matters is operating cost vs. operating profit going forward with both new restaurants open. That should be calculable based on doing a pro forma with the 10-Q statements as a reference and figuring the new revenue stream based on rev/sq foot calculations.
Are people are going to fork out franchise fees for an operation that is not profitable on it's own? Right now they are losing .10/share.
May I ask, who is the "we" in your statement? Are you involved with a franchising organization?
This statement is not contrary to what I was saying. They do indeed have this Area Development Agreement in place. My point was that there were no company-owned restaurants planned and to the best of my knowledge the Canadian thing would be in that category. The Canadian thing was a Joint Venture (Joint Ownership). While not being outright a corporate restaurant, it was something like 50/50 between uWink and a Canadian partner. Pretty close to a Corporate-owned store.
With their hiring of a senior guy to handle uWink franchising they are obviously abandoning their previous plan of expansion via a combination of corporate and franchised restaurants.
Also, I have a friend who was in a financial capacity at another restaurant chain. He knows all about the Area Development Agreements that a re common in the US. I should ask him what seems like a new strategy. Last time I spoke with him he did not think much of the Area Development Agreement as a binding contract or firm commitment. I have to talk to him again.
My thoughts exactly...
there are a couple of specific differences in this announcement. It says that the new restaurants are "showcases". ie not supposed to necessarily be profitable in their own right..
and.. no more company-owned restaurants. Question. Will 3 restaurants be enough to build the brand? will people buy in? I think they would have to be a smashing success..
I think the previous strategy was to expand via opening more restaurants, either company-owned or franchised, with technology sales as being a perhaps profitable sideline. I never thought until now that they would rely on the technology sales route. This puts a definite cap on company-owned restaurants at 2.
The application of their technology to retirement homes announces some time ago will take years to develop. Not relevant right now.
This makes the short-term more exciting. But more risky. I would expect a major push to franchise once these new places open. If it is successful, it may be wildly successful.. if not. well.. There was an article recently that was posted here where the writer said that uWink would have to go to the markets again in the fall to expand... not now. Not in the cards, that will not work a second time. The article was overall positive; good concept and technology; expanding; but losing money was the gist of it.
The other day I was comparing this to Crocs, for some strange reason. Totally different business but Crocs came out of nowhere.. Good product but i think there was also a marketing angle. They established a good brand quite unexpectedly.. where cheap imitations would not do.
This seems to be a change in strategy. Focus on licensing and franchising rather than opening more company-owned restaurants. My interpretation: they had better do these restaurants right, because if they are not a smashing success they will not support franchises or licensing. Probably should be profitable with two restaurants as well.. they probably see that that is their best chance of success and are laying their cards on the table. They will either be successful or the thing will fold.
Good strategy but remember hat this is what every software company wants to be able to do. Making money on licensing technology is very difficult. You have to be better than everybody else and constantly evolve to meet customer needs. lots have tried... how many software companies and OS were there when Microsoft was just a player and how many survived?
I guess I just don't think geek...
before I look, i think it must mean Laughing my Ass Off?
what does that mean -- LMAO..??
go ahead Net,I actually usually very much enjoy your posts. Don't hold it back....
Email received from Nancy Nino wrt openings.
"Yes, we expect to open Hollywood and Highland in early June. In fact we just filed this 8K yesterday: http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108699/000101968708002118/uwink_8k-050808.txt
Mountain View is in construction and we expect a summer opening. I don't yet have a solid date.
Nancy
Nancy Nino
uWink, Inc.
"
So this information is publicly available now. I am not an expert in legal matters wrt disclosure of material information in a case like this, but I would think that somehting like this would be kept mum until it could be made publicly available in as fair and public a manner as possible. I got this simply by sending an email to the customer service email listed on their website.
can anyone give any credit to the claim that the MV location construction has started?
I respect your approach. You are right that very few stocks really run, and if they do what you paid for it does not matter that much. Most important thing is picking them right. In high tech, one of the biggest winners of recent years was ABT (Absolute Technology). It went from 2.xx to 38.00. Right now it is around 22 (adjusted for 2:1 split). Went down in the crash in january. I consider myself lucky that I sold my last shares at Xmas, because there was something else I wanted.
I know I am gambling a bit, and I hope it works out with uWink. Hope everything works out for you as well.
Most stocks I would get into have alot more stability than this one. This is an exception and a risky one. Taking profit is never a bad idea.
doesn't it make sense to get in now? You are a smart guy. If you wait until he actually opens "the horse would have left the barn" is my favorite expression. Last time the big runup started maybe a month before he opened. What could possibly happen...
so when is the restaurant opening then Raw? Since you are so tight with our good buddy then... you should be able to find out with a quick phone call... much faster than some bloke on yahoo calling Customer Service.. I bet I find out faster than you. Want to lay odds?
While you are talking with our good friend I am sure you will express the gratitude that the faithful here (under your leadership) also feel for him for having the opportunity to participate in the financing of his little enterprise. He has 9M bucks with which to open a restaurant! Where did that money come from? Before the R/S he had something like 10-11 M shares... now he has about 10-11 MM shares..what about the price falling from 5.00 to 1.20.. multiplied by the number of shares outstanding post-split and pre-financing (held by the "longs" on here) ... might just explain it. It is no wonder Nolan likes you..without your unwavering support during the downward slide, they just might not have had the opportunity!
I managed to get ahold of him. He said he usually just ignores you.
If they are allowing service to degrade at Woodland Hills they are screwing it up. There is no reason why it should. What I would have expected is that perhaps the popularity of the place would drop off a bit. Maybe less in terms of numbers. But, once they get the kinks worked out there is no reason why things should not be smooth as clockwork.
One of the factors at play here is the simple fact that the place is new. People will be inclined to check it out. A poster here some time back came up with the phrase for this and I cannot remember it. The new places in H&H and Mountain View, especially the Mountain View location (because of the techie nature of it) will be sure to draw a crowd. But that crowd will thin somewhat as well over time.
I would like to see some numbers on crowds they are drawing. I am not there, so I can't check it out myself.
email is off. Will keep you posted.
there is a rumor (rumour?) over on Yahoo that H&H is opening first week of June that has apparently been confirmed by uwink Customer Relations. That is something I can try to substantiate myself....
Mountain View to open in July. Apparently work has already started.
Yes. They would do what they consider to be complete testing in a lab environment, then "go live" with it. And it may make sense to beta test it (beta test = user test = put it in the field) in one location first. Because you never know what could go wrong until you actually do go live. The article suggests however that some basic functions do not work, and that in not believable. He is not being objective.
Which leads me to: does anybody kow their opening strategy? soft vs hard opening.... and when .. goddarn it..
The only thing I can add to what you are saying is that while these activities are necessary (regression testing, integration testing etc), they would never do that in a "live" location. Prior to the opening of the original restaurant I remember they had some "piloting" sessions. that is where they would test new ideas with customer. It would be understood that it is a test or is for market research purposes, and hence is not the final product. I would not agree that software companies use a location as some kind of test location. What would be the point, to minimize the damage?
What they might do is work in partnership with a site to develop a piece of software. the new senior's residence system is just such a thing. uWink is benefiting from the access to the site to gain knowledge of how a senior's facility works and what their needs are. It is understood that it is a "beta" (untested, unreleased) version of software. The beta customer gets the software at half-price (50/50 split of dev. cost) and uWink gets the operational knowledge. That is a typical arrangement. But once product is released, it is expected to work.
Because of time-to-market pressures and cost (testing being the last step in the dev. cycle), many software companies release product that is not fully tested. Now you have the infamous "Service Pack".... otherwise known as a patch to fix known anomalies.. bugs. Also, they commit to being able to do things that are beyond their technical capability... leading to bad implementations.
I wish I could see it for myself. I am in Toronto, Canada. I have been to LA. Love California... but can't head down to "check it out". My impression is that this guy is looking for problems.. Every other article I have read says the thing is running like clockwork. And there is no way that the UI is as bad as it seems... it could not be that bad after a year.
I would disagree with you to some extent. I am a software guy as well, but more on the management side. I am an anomaly int he industry because I expect things to work well. If they don't, I get pissed off. Not always popular in the software business, because often things do not work well, and many of the geeks who work in the business just come to expect things to be that way. They get complacent and accustomed to it. The best example of this I can think of is the tendency to ship software that is not fully tested. The users end up debugging the thing. Microsoft has a bad rep for this. i am no longer trying to make sense of the chaos, having moved to a more stable business.
Anyway, I digress. This guy sounds like a long-haired programmer type that is maybe not being objective and making the most of a few problems. The restaurant maybe did not know he was going to write an article. As a customer you have got to expect that there will be the odd problem... should not be a big deal. Things do break. should not be allowed to get in the way of the customer experience. He is making a big deal of it.
However, if uWink expects to thrive they had better make sure things work well, and not just be another software company with a flakey product. My impression up to now has been that uWink is taking it's time and executing well. making sure things work, doing piloting, etc. And certainly they have had that first store up long enough to get it right. This should not be the norm or even common. That is why this article surprises me. I think it is just an unexpected anolmaly.