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Thanks JL, Zum, Sam for the information you shared today in the following posts (worth reviewing a second time):
87634(Purpose of the 2nd Interim / EPA and it's mode of inflammatory regulation at the cellular level)
87370 (Periodontal disease is very widespread in the baby boomer population. The dental applications could be huge IMO)
87367 (H.c. Wainwright & Co. gets it. This is a very good stock analysis/projeciton)
Very much appreciated.
I agree. Great ER + crossing the 3.00 threshold puts the stock on many more Institutional fund watchlists.
I think the high for the day is in and we close near it.
We are extremely overbought. Wouldn't be surprised to see the market sell the news tomorrow at first (depending on what it is). Any minor retrace will get bought hard.
P, quote:"I saw something."
Umm, those were headlights...
Suggest everyone place a GTC order to sell at $100 or higher. Shares of standing orders are unavailable for shorting.
Thank you. We needed a refill on rocket fuel.
The August Calls tell the story. Strikes with an expiration on the 19th are attracting all the open interest. Why not the 5th or 12th if there was a leak of a big announcement at the time of earnings? I think Amarin told the DMC they couldn't meet until after their earnings announcement/cc. One - two weeks later, BOOM -- a halt is announced??
CB, JL suggested breaking open the V capsules and mixing contents with lime juice as an oral rinse for patients with gingivitis or periodontitis. I have a son in an orthodontic residency.. trying to talk him in to using EPA for his masters research.
BB - the consolidation represents a small pullback as a smear campaign (to rescue shorts) causes some investors to fear an announcement of dilution. The subsequent reversal pulls in sideline spectators who have painfully waited for an entry point -- Kiwi?
By the way, the pps keeps going up. I ran out of chart space. :)
JL - I don't understand how convertible notes work, but I was intrigued by your quote long ago:
The May 15 2014 change is as follows. $31 million of the aproximate $150 mil in notes will remain as the 2012 agreement states. The remaing $118 million in notes changes as follows. The notes exchange rate to ADSs is 384ADSs/$1000 principal ($2.60/share), but the notes can not be exchanged unless the PPS of the stock is $2.86 or above. Currently at a PPS of $1.37 the correct exchange rate would be 726ADSs/$1000 so this is not currently a bargain. Also the agreement allows the company to force the bond holders into converting or redeming their bonds at the companies discretion.
Quarterly re-balancing for biotech indexes occured on the last trading day in June and was reflected in share price in AH
B - it's interesting to look back at CPXX before it went kaboom. It sharply rallied sharply off the bottom (on a news leak), then gapped up to the stratosphere on news approximately a week later.
Hopefully we do the same thing.
Amazing to see how AMRN surges back to its true value once shorts are sidelined.
BC: " Looking at his cherry pick list filtered by volume"
Not "cherry picked" at all. Try telling the truth.
I sorted the following Morningstar Drugs group which contained the all stocks within the sub-groups They :
were sorted on "price change today"
What I shared were the top performers.
I do not think this was because the shorts lost the battle Friday
BB/HDG/others - Let's not underestimate the significant overhead resistance that goes back to early 2014. This band of prices clearly shows 2x the volume of any other resistance/support on the daily chart. Whatever triggered the move (through this heavy resistance) also triggered stop buy-to-cover orders by short and naked short positions. Yesterday is when longs jumped in to the momentum (interim run-up) trade. Much of what we are seeing is TA related, but also juiced by some side-liners who have been waiting (perhaps with inside info) for a blue sky BO.
Something very important is brewing and I think we can expect news soon to confirm the 21% 2-day gain for AMRN. JL is probably right, data or info regarding very positive developments has leaked and investors are responding.
SNSS is the only one that surpassed AMRN for a larger 2-day gain - because of rumors of a buyout following a reported loss for the qtr. Over half of Friday's big gainers failed to follow through.
(left: Friday's gain, middle: Today's gain, Right: Short Interest Ratios)
We'll know soon. Until then, big Gap up tomorrow... then rumors swirl :)
Michael, We've stalled at 2.91 for the better part of the day without any sign of a pullback. Shorts will be nervous to continue to hold overnight. We should see another run near the close. If so, AMRN will have closed at the HOD, setting up more follow through tomorrow.
Rumors are going to start flying...
Good thinking. I will post after the session today. Here is the current update:
(they are listed by percentage change today)
AMRN is leading the pack and the vast majority have failed to follow through.
JL - I appreciate the apology, but if AMRN continues to diverge from the pack, you might be right. There could be more behind this move.
Nope,.. all had price squeeze patterns + high short interest ratios, just like AMRN:)
Nope,.. short squeeze. Re-balancing occurs AH
Raf, Quote: "FLYFISH - care to show off your TA skills and tell us what the closing PPS will be tomorrow and on Friday?"
Nope, not here to prove anything.
However, I will say that I increased my share position + loaded up on August calls based on this intra-day chart I posted on 7-26 - indicating a high probability we would enjoy a 'blue sky' breakout.
I also believe the 6100 $3 calls purchased 2 days after Kalb was hired are amateurish and based on "info", thus I acted accordingly and expect something very positive around the earnings announcement as many positive developments surface.
JL, why don't YOU try telling the truth (do your homework before rebuttal)? I said "many" biotech stocks. Look for yourself, numbers don't lie:
These are all squeeze patterns that popped on the last day of the month (similar to what AMRN did).
BTW, the real Jesse Livermore also liked to be an "expert" in too many things, too many times and it cost him dearly.
I'm not saying there couldn't be a leak of some sort, in fact I've speculated more than any poster that this would be likely, and I certainly hope it is. However, to unequivocally say so based on Friday's action would be a bit untruthful and misleading IMO
Mog, "What exactly is the impetus to take this to $15?"
You, Whaletene, and your buddies covering,...
Bc:
events are drivers not charts!
OK, think hard BC. Count how many days the battle at resistance has occurred prior to Friday. On Thursday naked shorts tried to pound it but it wouldn't stick, so they seized tho opportunity to cover, printing a massive bullish wick that followed through on the last day of the month. Momentum longs piled in for the ride.
Guess what, it's so simple to figure out you don't have to "think" about it ;)
JL -
"If I'm correct, and my earlier stock market experience suggests I will be...We can expect R-I to be halted for benefit..This is what the betting is saying..Other possibilities for Fridays actions are IMO less likely."
AMRNs price action was boosted by end of month window dressing. Shorts were nervous as prices were squeezed up against the final resistance zone. In my opinion, a combination of forthcoming earnings/news, interim results and the end of month fund activity combined to give us the explosive move.
Other volcano squeeze patterns (with high short interest ratios) saw the same kind of moves yesterday like ARIA, S, EXAS, and CERS to name a few.
Looks like we have a perfect storm: short squeeze + news on the horizon.
The best news I read yesterday however was regarding CRC patients increasing their chances of survival by taking EPA. :) FFS
It’s the Sub-Industry Component of the Morningstar Industry Group: “Drugs”
"Bogus" question.
F, I agree. One way or another, management has a strategic surprise for them.
Raf, have you looked at the IBB (biotech index)? It has not risen in sympathy with the broad market. Likewise (though divergent with the biotech index) AMRN is also completely disconnected with the general market highs.
Z: I think the pps drops on an announcement of continuation. Shorts are waiting for this announcement, followed by an ensuing PR regarding the impending need to dilute.
Kiwi - your pull back chart if no stop:
3 areas for you to buy if we pullback; pink, blue, or purple. All will depend on how high we go prior to. If we reach 4.50, a fall back to 3.00ish would represent a 50% retrace of the run up from the February low - that's my projection.
If we only rise to 3.00 pre-interim, a 50% retrace would pull back to 2.00 (Kiwi Support 1)
I think the chances are slim to none that the pps slips back to Kiwi Support 2.
Kiwi, Quote:
Currently at around $2.38 my guess is that the market does not expect a stop at Interim . So at most maybe a 50c sell off if R-IT is not stopped.
So then its a question of
1) how fast they can grow scripts ...4% growth each month doubles the script growth roughly by EOY 2017
2) Can they secure Licensing deals
3) Will Baker Bros refi the debt due in Jan 2017
4) How much COH ( cash on hand ) they show in the 2nd Qt earnings report.
If dilution is minimal ( $30-$40 m ) then the PPS may rise ( as an uncertainty removed ). Believe Dancing et al hold this pt of view.