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Buyers linning up..$0.80 doable with more effort
Yes, although given the FDA reviewer's criticisms, I believe there's a greater chance of them getting another date. Either way, the pps could stand on its own at current price so any low-dive would be adding opportunity for me
Senorita I see the gap. But I believe they will stifle it a bit more. If they are going by Adam's playbook, they would try to get out a little more shares between $0.59 and $0.70. The only thing to cause that gap-fill is a positive write-up or PR, or big buyer in, which would force some covering. Don't see a PR though in the near term. I reduced this substantially on Tuesday, but added a little at $0.66. I can wait a bit for that gap-fill - whenever. Just observing and wondering how powerful Adam really is. I was able to take some profit on the stock though...that's what counts. Sure you did.
Wrong place at wrong time - Out as soon as I saw PR. Figured, if it wasn't moving up for 10 minutes, it probably will not
UPDATE - I hear you. Wonder when you started buying this - you should know how many shares were converted back-to-back within a week or so. The good news is that it is within where some people think it should. The bad news is, there is no near-term catalyst to spur buying
Well, if it wasn't due till 2013, why do it for pennies and on the two times the stock attempted some recovery? It is what it is. Still holding it but those were too sneaky.
But that's what killed the rally...the 11 million share conversion. SHows some desperation in their finances. That's why some big funds are out.
Selling is relentless and "cyclopentanohydrophenanthrene."
Yes, that's the word for the new patent
A new low of an old low seems to be the target
Although I doubt whether approval would occur by 26th, I believe that the stock should trade above current pps on its merit. Whether or not approval happens by 26th, it is a given to happen sometime sooner given that Prochieve has proved itself against placebo. They basically need to work on how to collate, congregate and analyze the trial results. As usual, if immediate approval fails to occur, those that jumped in for that purpose only would pressurize PPS. That would be another adding opportunity. However, I am not adding anymore now. I hold enough.
UPDATE: Reduced significantly...too bearish. Will keep an eye here. Still hold about 7000 shares. CORT paid off well today so no regrets on this sector
Bidding and buying this as though life depends on it
On rethink, I held back buying more. Think they may push it lower at some point. Want to be ready for any games here
Back in here Friday and today loading up. Same Late Notification last qtr made the shares cheap but it rocked afterwards. This qtr is even going to be stronger - coming out of movie season (December). Bough a lot Friday, nibbling with available cash today and ALL WEEK. News will be out next week IMO
I'm in $4.45 and getting a little more
Jury will be out today. All available cash going in here. Tons of $$$ to be made.
Just reread the text of the AD-OP on FDA website and you will be grabbing this with three hands. The issue being addressed by WPI is not whether "Progestrone Gel" is statistically signifant versus placebo. No, the beef was only in the method used by CBRX in analyzing the results. WHile CBRX "pooled" the results, FDA analyst reviewed the results by region. In non US regions - Prochieve was statistically significant. In fact, In South Africa and Belarus, not s single preterm was recorded in women using progestrone gel while preterm birth levels on subjects on placebo was disturbing. Here's an exerpt "South Africa (with 11 placebo subjects and 10 progesterone gel subjects) and Belarus (with six placebo subjects and five progesterone gel subjects) had very high rates of preterm birth in the placebo subjects, and no preterm births at = 32 6/7 weeks among progesterone gel-treated subjects. This resulted in a large treatment effect favoring progesterone gel in these countries."
Even results from India and Ukraine supports statistical significance "In contrast, preterm delivery rates among placebo subjects in India and Ukraine are very low, but still 4-8% higher than those among progesterone gel-treated subjects."
Also, by race, Prochieve was statistically significant "Overall, there was minimal efficacy in Asian subjects, possibly because the background rate of prematurity was quite low.
Efficacy in Caucasians and Blacks favored progesterone gel. In Caucasians, the treatment benefit was greatest in the earlier gestational ages, while in Blacks, efficacy increased as gestational age advanced."
The US result is not reliable because there was heavy non-compliance. Of course, US preterm background was also a noted variable. And when you consider that incidences of preterm would be diminished in the US because of superior medical systems vs the five other countries in the trial, you'd be loading up as I have on the stock. The FDA reviewer needed additional data since, according to him, the USresult of the "single" study did not make the overal result to be of "highly persuasive significance." Hence additional data is needed.
And, as I have always stated, the stock is already dirty cheap on its own. When you add the Perceived Future Value of Prochieve being approved, you see a multi-badger! Don't forget the short numbers. I am sure most of you are in already. Goodluck and Happy President's Day!
Waooo! Left my PC by 10am, came back and saw my 12k order filled at $0.86. Scanned for any info and the oly thing I could see that came at about that time was a Fools piece which restated my earlier posts that CBRX is grossly UNDERVALUED! Now, why that warranted a sell-off, I HAVE NO IDEA! But, I thank the seller though. I needed those shares more than the seller. Funny stuff. These days, a blogger writes something negative, some people sell, and a blogger writes something positive, you must see a seller. It's all about who can scare the most - fundamentals is immaterial. But, diligent investors know bargains when they see one. THIS IS A DOUBLER - short time!!!!!! Mark this post.
Looked a bit more in their books and saw the operating expense is actually less than $2 million in last qtr since WPI takes care of sales now. Using last qtr as a guide, CBRX should have between $29-$30 million in cash. With zero debt, company is now actually trading at a mere $50 million. ROGER THAT!!!!!!!!! And it was trading at over $3 before the NDA application in April 2011. The more you look at the stuff, the more you load up. No wonder investors were buying above $1.50 even after the Advisory opinion. Money would be made here shortly.
That's the key. Worst downside is $0.70 (according to their oracle - Adam). Then I would quadruple my position. And we head up again. We did it before - just over a week ago.
Yes, especially with Lightsquard debacle...FTWR is a whole lot more valuable. Will be adding at this level
Back in here with 5000 shares at $0.813 - just to protest the silly selling/shorting.
Got 30000 of this today. Will add more in coming days. At $10 this is a joke with the stuff they have BANKRUPTCY OR NO BANKRUPTCY. I see a winner at least a 100 percenter!!!
Prior to the NDA in April 2011, CBRX was trading between $3 - $4. Stock is worth way more than this joke on its own. Approval here, which would happen IMO, would take this towards $6. Approval is a certainty based on the fact that the Advisory Opinion only requested "additional" information only. We know that WPI has been meeting FDA officials for that additional information.
Take note that for the last reported qtr, revenues leaped by 103.7%, while industry average of 10.8%.
The debt-to-equity ratio of zero
In the last reported qtr, CBRX reported a 66% rise in the sales of Crinone overseas.
At the last reported qtr, Earnings Growth was about 366.66%
Overall, whether Prochieve is approved on 26th or later upon presentation of the "additional" facts, you are seeing a stock that ought to be above $2 without factoring in the PFV of the Prochieve application.
Do your DD, but the more I did, the more I bought until I can buy no more
UPDATE: Only FIVE trading days from today. 26th is a Sunday. News may be out as early as Tuesday next or by Friday. If news is unfavorable, CBRX would still trade above this range given five approved products, about $46 million in current revenue, tons of available cash, very low cash burn. If drug is approved, this rises over fivefold. Bank that!!!
Added 4000 under $0.89 - can't think of any better option for the available cash
Great...I would have been surprised if others did not see through the charade. This is headed back to where it came from prior to 26th. If approved this will scale $5 effortlessly towards $6. Except for the bigger companies, it is rare to see a new drug applicant that is cash-flow positive, has rich balance sheet, several products in the market, and even buying back stocks. CBRX bought back several million shares in 2010. Monster opportunity here. Will keep this trajectory, can't see the resistance. I guess it was held back because investors couldn't see through the next step and WPI's intentions. Now that those are all settled and WPI is meeting with FDA, expect investors to be buying back positions ahead of the BIG date. Goodnite to all, Hello Senorita!
The SEC filing about an hour ago says it all for those that like $$$ the way I do. Need I say more? The SEC filing is all I need here. Under a buck is about to evaporate...
Also, the major reason why it went down a second leg below $1 was the uncertainty whether WPI would continue to support and fund the application. That uncertainty was clearly erased with the announcement that WPI was completely taking over all roles. That was when I doubled down on buying. That was the buying trigger. Goodluck to all.
$45.7 million in 2010 revenue, FIVE products approved and in the market, over $0.30 per share in cash, ZERO...NO DEBT, very low expence/cash run! You should be borrowing to load up while you can. Even without the pre-term application, the Perceived Future Value of CBRX makes a mockery of current PPS. And Prochieve would be approved with over 44% significant endpoint recorded. Note that the Advisory Opinion only stated that "additional" information was needed. Last PR stated that WPI has already started meeting with FDA on the requested additional data. I have bought this like no other issues since CNO (in $0.29 in 2009, out three months later over $5) and SOMX (in $0.96 December 2009, out March 2010 above $9).
Happy to get even with Adam F of thestreet and Scott M of Seeking Alpha. They now know that I know more than them. And dumb shorts that followed them would now head towards poverty
senderos = That was too general. Better positioned cashwise - they are cash-flow positive, have over $0.30 in cash per shares, and NO DEBT, and they are not expending money for the application. It's an all-rounder
Thanks for the $0.755s. It is my PLEASURE
Adam Shit-Stein or something like that. Remember the dude that writes for Jim Cramer. He's driving shorts out of business here again. The dude that read political science but thinks he knows Biotech
iamwarren....company estimates a market of $1.2 billion for the indicated illness. There were over 20 million shorts on BPAX. Also, we now know that LIBIGE is not dead. So combine those and see where this might go. For sure, I will be taking some profits at some point today. Goodluck though
Jape1 don't HATE. It's all good
A little chest-beating here though for 2012 as I sip this chococoffee. Less than 2 months in and great stories. Key is getting in early like I always do - when others are fleeing or bashing. You make nothing less than 100%. Some 2012 record MOTR in at $0.77 out $1.54, PNSN in at $1.12 out at $1.60, HEAT in at $0.31 out at $0.55, SAPX in at $0.289 out $0.51, LEE in at $0.80 out at $1.61, PNCL in at $0.88 and still holding, and now BPAX started at $0.62 avg and been playing it all along. The list is endless. But the point I am making is that you buy when the blood is flowing for maximum gains. Today, I am loading up CBRX. will be over $1 in a fortnight. Please applaud me here!
Hope there is enough shares for all the shares I am going to buy here today. CBRX is even better positioned than BPAX. But they brought it down in sync with BPAX. Hope there's enough shares for all the shares that I will be buying here today!!!
SHORT NUMBER STILL CLOSE TO 20 MILLION. Entire volume since approval is less than 5 million. That alone will take this off-the-charts
Great price even at this price. doubler possible because of the huge short numbers. Premarket will be a theatre
ViVa FEMALE VIAGRA! ViVa FEMALE VIAGRA!! LIBIGEL WILL EVENTUALLY BE APPROVED TOO. $10 stock here