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Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The Wall Street Journal has its annual year-end review of the financial markets in tomorrow's edition. It comes with a special pullout section that's worth saving for reference purposes. Loaded with statistics and results of the past year. Well worth a special trip to the newstand, imo.
And the winner is ...
Researcher59 in the contest to post the first 'Happy New Year' greeting of the New Year. He posted just 1 second after 2005 began in New York City, the financial capital of the world.
Happy New Year !!!!!!!!!
HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!!!!!!! HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!!!!!!!!!!
Spot market tanker rates have dropped dramatically these last 6 weeks or so .... it will be interesting to see if they rebound in the New Year, or continue to head lower. They're still at highly profitable levels, but the steep drop has been alarming.
I ordered one of their denim shirts from their website many weeks ago and was impressed by its quality. However the price of only about $6.75 brings into question how much profit can there be ?
Fireworks are going off in Moscow's Red Square as I post. It's midnight in that part of the world. Capitalism has gained a big foothold in the former 'East Block'. PKZ remains my largest holding, an oil company doing business in Kazakhstan, a former Soviet Republic. How times have changed in the last 15 years !
It's year end window dressing time as well as the last 20 minutes for tax loss selling. Maybe someone will even place a small order for CGNW at .46. Hey, this stock was .26 just 2 weeks ago. Maybe it doesn't even need window dressing. What a great run. Thanks again go to Bobwins, Hweb2 and all the other fine posters on the Value Microcaps message board. Best Wishes to all for a Happy New and good luck with their investments in 2005 !
Bobwins, I'm no tax expert, but that should be correct. You cannot claim the 1st loss immediately due to the wash sale rule, however the loss reduces your cost basis on your 2nd purchase. That's my understanding of the rule.
Final hours for tax loss selling. I just dumped my YPNT at 1.32. They reported eps of .18 for the September fiscal year, but a small loss in Q4. It seems their billing practices are under the gun and I'm happy to be rid of it and can well use the loss for a tax writeoff.
I'm going to post my top picks for the New Year over the weekend, and I hope many others will also post their ideas, as some already have. Of course, some stocks are much more speculative than others, and some are more short term plays, while others have more long term potential. A lack of liquidity in some microcaps could also be an exposure if the overall market turns down after the January effect comes to an end.
MANC +1.00 to 10.05 on heavy volume. I'm hoping this stock continues its nice run in anticipation of strong fiscal Q2 earnings for the 1/31 quarter. Plasma displays were a hot seller this Christmas season, and MANC is a distributor. Traditionally distributors have low profit margins, but they can expand substantially when their products are in heavy demand. EPS of .21 in Q1 could be much higher in Q2, with late add on orders by retailers. The stock could run much higher if the daytraders take it for a ride. Just look at what happened to ANTP ! Of course, as MSGI pointed out, ANTP has the advantage of a name, PHAZAR, that rhymes with TASR. Maybe that explains the huge run ANTP has had .... LOL.
lentinman, I'm very impressed by the site as well. So much so, that I already became a paying subscriber to get the extra features. Even if we don't ultimately move here, there will be other IH message boards that I will want to post on. I'm glad you came around on your viewpoint. At a minimum, the time savings here will be quite substantial, the way RB has been of late. And it's been flakey at times in the past as well. Furthermore, for the vast majority, an 18 post limit is more than adequate. It's always possible to consolidate multiple posts into 1, and eliminate trivial posts.
I agree it's definitely worth at least a try to stay with IH, and if it doesn't work out we can always go back to RB. But time is a precious commodity with all the stocks we keep track of, and so the speed here is biggest benefit of all. During the last few days I wasted a lot of time trying to post and read posts on RB. Very frustrating.
I think Value Microcaps can get more visibility here than on Raqing Bull. On the Investor's Hub home page, we're now listed as a 'new' board, and also we've made the 'most active' boards list. This seems to be a more sophisiticated site than RB.
linuspop, yes I'm still holding all my PXG. I've had a longstanding limit order to buy more $6, but it never got triggered. It may be rallying lately due bargain hunting in stocks that are near the bottom of their 52 week range and likely to do well next year. I'm hoping for earnings guidance of about $0.85 for 2005 which makes the stock cheap at $7.40, especially since it's on the AMEX. Other shoe companies have significantly higher PE's, so there's plenty of upside potential here, imho.
lentinman, if you need more than 18 posts per day, then you can become a premium subscriber. A trivial expense imo, given the benefits of this forum. Here are some IH features from the 'tools' page, including filtering ...
What is it?
iHub Tools are designed to create a highly personalized experience. Here is a listing of all the current tools available. To begin using Tools click on the Tools link on the IHUB Menu Bar.
My Account
This page shows all the current information about your Membership Account. You can also edit your profile from here.
My Settings
This category allows for full personalization of how you wish to view the website for your own convenience. It is critical that you click on UPDATE when you have completed your selections in order for them to take effect.
Favorites Auto-Refresh Designates whether your favorites page auto-refreshes. Choose ON or OFF.
Favorites Refresh Rate (in seconds) Designates in seconds how often your favorites page auto-refreshes. Choose from 15, 30, 60, 120, 180, 240, or 300 seconds.
Favorites Date/Time Display Designates whether to display the date and time on your favorites page. Choose ON or OFF.
Favorite Boards Sorted By Designates in what order you wish to display your Favorite Boards. Choose from Alias, New Posts, Date, or Ticker.
Favorite People Sorted By Designates in what order you wish to display your Favorite People. Choose from Alias, New Posts, or Date.
Bottom Menu Display Designates whether to show the IHUB Menu Bar at the bottom of certain or all pages of IHUB. Choose from Next 10, Nowhere, or Everywhere.
Play Embedded Sounds Designates whether you choose to hear embedded sounds or not. Choose from ON or OFF.
Display Embedded Graphics Designates whether you choose to see embedded graphics and charts within the posts or not. Choose from ON or OFF.
Mark Messages 'Read' in Next10 View Designates if you choose to Mark Messages as "Read" when in the Next10 View. (Premium Members Only) Choose ON or OFF.
Alert Browser Window On New Messages Designates if you wish a Browser Alert Window when a new message has appeared. Choose ON, OFF, or Messages To Me Only.
Messages Per Category in MailBox Designates how many messages you can view in your MailBox at a time. Choose from 10, 20, 50, 100, or 500.
Messages Per Batch in Batch-View (Next10) mode Designates how many messages per batch you can see on a page when using Batch View mode. (Premium Members Only) Choose 10, 20, 50, or 100.
Board Refresh Rate (in seconds, 0=no auto-refresh) Designates in seconds how often you want a board to auto-refresh. Choose 0, 60, 120, 180, 300, 600.
Show Signatures Designates whether or not you wish to view the signatures and graphics added as signatures by posters.
Show Menu Buttons as: Designates your preference for the menu/navigation buttons -- as text (default) or buttons.
My Interface
This category is the Tool that allows you to customize exactly what you want iHub to look like to you when you visit it. For help with RGB Color Codes, click on the link at the bottom of the My Interface Page. You can even choose from some pre-customized layouts from other members of IHUB such as Matt's Fave, Bob's Fave, 3D Grayscale, or Wine. It is critical that you click on SAVE CHANGES when you have completed your selections in order for them to take effect.
Currently, My Interface is mostly aimed at the appearance of the menu at the top (and bottom if you've used My Config to put it there) of your screen.
There are 4 columns in the screen called "Configuration Item" (the name of the item), "Default Value" (the values used for the site's default layout), "Current Value" (what you have it set to now), and "New Value" (where you make changes). Each time you hit the "Save Settings" button below the grid, the screen should reload and the changes you made should take effect.
Menu Font Designates which Font Style you prefer on the IHUB Menu. Choose from Serif, Sans-Serif, Cursive, Fantasy, or Monospace.
Menu Font Size Designates what Font Size you prefer on the IHUB Menu. Choose from 80%, 90%, 100%, 110%, 120%, 8pt., 9pt., 10pt., 11pt., 12pt., 13pt., or 14 pt.
Menu Font Emphasis Designates the boldness of Font you prefer on the IHUB Menu. Choose from Normal, Bold, Bolder, Lighter, 100, 300, 500, 700, or 900.
Menu Text Color Designates the Text Color you prefer on the IHUB Menu. Simply type in a color by name. (example-White)
Menu Background Color Designates the Background Color you prefer on the IHUB Menu. You may use the RGB Color Codes (See NOTE Below), or choose from Black, Silver, Gray, White, Maroon, Red, Purple, Fuchsia, Green, Lime, Olive, Yellow, Navy, Blue, Teal, or Aqua.
Menu Cell Width Designates the space given to each menu item. The default is "Empty", which will cause most browsers to space each item evenly, depending on their width. For example, "Hot!" gets a smaller amount of space than "Favorites", but they each get a similar amount of space around them. If you want each menu item to use exactly the same amount of space (for example, if you're using a "button" look for the menu), try selecting specific values from the dropdown. The larger the number, the wider each option appears to be.
Important Note For Opera Users: This option was added because of you. (g) Your menu will look hideous unless you specify something other than "Empty" in this field. The width that looks best will depend quite a bit on the menu font size, border type/size, and font emphasis, so try different values. I use 12% when I'm using Opera. Choose from Empty, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12%, 13%, 14%, 15%, or 16%.
Underline Menu Links Designates whether you want Menu Links underlined or not. Choose YES or NO.
Menu Item Border Type Allows a 3D Effect to the Messages. Choose from None, Raised, or Sunken.
Menu Item Border Size Designates how large of a border you prefer. Choose 0pt., 1pt., 2pt., 3pt., 4pt., or 5pt.
Menu Item Padding Designates how much space above and below each menu element should be shown. If it's set to zero, the menu is only thick enough for the menu text to barely fit in it. The larger the number, the more space is given around the menu text.
The "button" look seems more effective if you set this to about 1 or 2. Choose from 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
Preview Typo Color Designates what color you wish your typos to appear in when you are in Message Preview Mode. Type in an RGB Color Code. (See NOTE below)
Page Background Color Designates what color you prefer your background to be. Type in an RGB Color Code.
Message Box Color Designates what color you prefer your Message Box to be. Type in an RGB Color Code.
My Filters
This section is where you manage your filters/ignores. To ignore someone, make sure you have Filters Enabled. Go to their profile and click 'Hide this Poster' -- they will show up on this page and stay filtered unless you turn off filters or 'Unhide' them. You can also block a person from sending you private messages by clicking 'Block Messages from [poster]' (in the blue bar) when you are reading a private message from them. You can 'unblock' them from the My Filters page. Another feature is the 'Replies To Filtered People Also Filtered.' This blocks the replies to the posters you have filtered, effectively hiding any discussion involving the people you have filtered.
shmolton, I also prefer IH over RB. But is it reliable ? Is it this fast everyday ?
Bobwins, I'm glad you spoke directly with NWAU's CEO. Your positive impression of him, and that he is a turnaround specialist, gives me more confidence in the Company. I have a few shares, and I believe it's only the 3rd time I've ventured onto the pink sheets. But I still remember your great recommendation of IIIN.PK, which turned into a big winner. NWAU sounds too good to be true, trading at .35 now, yet giving guidance of .30 for 2005. But I'm happy to take a risk on this one. I think of it as a stock option ... it could go to zero, but could also be a 10 bagger.
I remain a fan of TREK, though many others prefer a growth story. I think it's a classic value play considering the relatively large reserves they have. Certainly not a growth stock, but excellent value. The best evidence of that is the present value of future cash flows, estimated at about $6 per share in their 10K filing, versus a $2 share price. Compare that to ASPN, which as of their 10K for the fiscal year ended 6/30, reported a present value of future cash flow of roughly $0.90 compared to a $2.20 share price. I own both stocks, and like ASPN for their strong growth, but as of the last 10K, their proved reserves are a bit meager.
hweb, USOO looks good. I just picked up a few shares at 1.02. Steady revenue growth the last few years. This looks like a good long term play at the least, even if it doesn't rally much in the short term. I plan to accumulate more on any weakness.
DGIX, currently at .85, should have a seasonally strong Q4 just as they did last year. This year they reported fully taxed and diluted EPS of .06 in Q3 and .08 through 9 months, versus .03 and .03 for the same periods respectively in 2003. Last year they did .05 in Q4, and I'm hoping they can do .09 this year for a total of .17. That puts the PE at 5. Balance sheet is strong with tangible book value of .62 and little debt.
Steel sector weak on WSJ article. China now an exporter of steel. Article appended below ....
For much of the past two years, China has threatened to foster a world steel shortage with its prodigious appetite for imports of the metal. Now the country has become a net exporter, its domestic demand is slowing and steelmaking capacity is up around the world, sparking concern over global oversupply and tougher times for the industry in the years ahead.
Behind China's shift is a sharp slowdown in the growth of steel consumption at home combined with continued increases in production. As Beijing has worked to cool an overheated economy, the growth in domestic demand for steel recently has been rising only about 5% a month compared with year-earlier periods, after average monthly increases of 26% in 2002, 2003 and early 2004, according to UBS AG.
Meanwhile, UBS estimates that Chinese steel production will climb 22% this year to 268 million tons, and grow a further 14% next year to 305 million tons. In November, China reported net exports of more than one million metric tons of steel, more than double October's level and a reversal from November 2003, when it was a net importer of nearly three million tons.
China's emergence as a net steel exporter and rising capacity elsewhere highlights how quickly global commodity flows can shift directions. It also raises the question of whether China could as quickly reverse the trend and again squeeze global steel supplies. China in recent years has added so much new production of some raw materials, such as coal and aluminum, that even minor shifts in its economy could force it to dump unneeded supply on to the global marketplace, potentially sending prices down as quickly as they have gone up.
Lower steel prices could be a boon to manufacturers, builders and consumers world-wide, helping to reduce costs in the plant and prices at the cash register. The impact on steelmakers is less rosy, especially in the U.S. While the American steel industry is in better shape, after a wave of bankruptcies and consolidation, to cope with oversupply, the U.S. would be at a big disadvantage against steelmakers in lower-cost countries. In addition to China, production in lower-cost regions like India and Eastern Europe has been surging in recent years. And when the dollar's weakness reverses, imports will look more attractive to U.S. customers.
For now, analysts and executives see a clear movement toward rising capacity in China and world-wide, though they disagree on how soon large amounts of new steel will reach the market and how much of a price squeeze global producers face.
Just a few years ago, the steel industry was slogging through a decades-long downturn, caused in part by overcapacity. That changed in 2003 and 2004, as manufacturing picked up world-wide, but especially in China, where construction projects far exceeded expectations. A global squeeze on steel supplies this year led to panic buying that caused steel prices to double and triggered shortages of steel-making raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal and scrap steel.
Now, many governments are using subsidies, loan guarantees and other tools to promote more steel production to capitalize on the increased demand in China and elsewhere. The North American Steel Trade Committee is worried that some 250 million metric tons of new steel capacity are on track to be added in the next five years in a global market that currently produces about one billion tons annually.
China now exports large amounts of lower-quality steel, of the type used in construction. Supplies of higher-quality steel, of the kind used to make cars and trucks, remain tight -- Nissan Motor Co. and Suzuki Motor Corp. both had to temporarily halt production when they couldn't find enough steel in recent weeks. But China has been ramping up its capacity to make more high-quality steel as well.
Excess Chinese steel might not dent world prices right away. But rising Chinese exports would almost certainly affect other markets eventually, stoking competition as steel producers that had sold to China vie for sales elsewhere.
Some steel users say they are already seeing the impact of greater production and slowing demand in Asia. Among them is Pan Australian Resources Ltd., a mining concern based in Brisbane, Australia, that is building a $15 million gold-processing facility in northern Laos. Steel products account for as much as 10% of the facility's cost.
When Pan Australian priced the project this summer, suppliers appeared to be padding their estimates in the expectation that steel costs would continue to rise. But now that it is taking delivery of the steel, the company is finding prices are more than 10% below estimates.
"It looks like their order books have thinned out, so they need to be more competitive," says Joe Walsh, a Pan Australian spokesman.
And more capacity is on the way. Despite its announced intention to rein in excess steel investment earlier this year, the Chinese government recently approved a $2.5 billion plant expansion for Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. the country's fifth-largest steel producer, to make more steel for cars and home appliances. It also approved a $2 billion expansion for stainless-steel maker Taiyuan Iron & Steel.
State-run media have reported that China's largest steelmaker, Baosteel Group, is considering a $10 billion expansion to build a 10-million-ton-a-year plant in Guangdong province, pending government approval. Baosteel officials declined to comment on the plan. Baosteel has started construction on a stainless-steel plant in Guangdong that would be the biggest stainless-steel processing and distribution center in China when finished.
"It doesn't take too much imagination to look at what's happening in China and say that this is a really serious issue," says Peter Hickson, a steel analyst at UBS in London, who believes that steel prices could fall nearly $200 a ton over 2005. The U.S. industry expects prices for cold-rolled steel, a type commonly used in everything from dishwashers to automobiles, to be about $800 a ton in early 2005. Mr. Hickson's bank recently downgraded the global steel sector to "neutral" from "buy," in large part because of worries over China.
Still, some analysts contend that concerns about a steel overhang are premature. Many of the new expansions won't be completed for a long time and some might not happen at all if steel prices drop and supplies of raw materials for steel remain tight.
"I think there is a little too much concern about announced new capacity," says Dan DiMicco, chief executive of Charlotte, N.C.-based Nucor Corp. "You can build steel mills but you can only run them if you have raw materials."
Kim Soo Jung, a spokeswoman for Posco, the large South Korean steelmaker, says, "We can't say we're not concerned about the increased production volume in China," she says. "If they don't stop producing [so much], that will cause overcapacity."
Even so, Posco is considering its own expansions, including a possible $8.4 billion joint venture with Australia's BHP Billiton to build a steel-slab plant in India with capacity for 10 million tons a year. As recently as 2001, Ms. Kim says, Posco was the world's biggest producer of steel in terms of volume, but it has lost that status after other steelmakers expanded through a series of mergers. "If we want to continue to be a leader in the industry, we need to expand our capacity," she says.
Chinese officials emphasize that their latest expansions will be aimed at serving the high-grade steel market rather than users of lower-grade construction steel. Wang Xiaoguang, head of the economic operation and development research department at China's State Development and Reform Commission, predicts that China's steel output will only increase 10% to 15% next year, compared with more than 20% in recent years.
The U.S., for its part, remains a net importer of steel, taking in about 30 million of the 130 million tons of steel it consumes each year. A few companies, such as Nucor and Fort Wayne, Ind.-based Steel Dynamics Inc. have expanded existing capacity this year for certain types of steel. But that additional production roughly offsets steel-making capacity that disappeared from the U.S. between 2000 and 2003, when almost 40 companies declared bankruptcy.
This board looks pretty good. Response time is excellent, and that's the most important think, imo. ETEC strong today, new 52wk high of 2.59, fully taxed eps of .08 in each of the last 2 quarters. Tried to short ANTP at 44 this morning, but no shares available. Now at 49, what a flyer, LOL.