CRMD -3.38 to 7.39 after reporting strong Q4 results but disappointing revenue guidance -

briefing -

Cormedix beats by $0.09, beats on revs (10.77 ) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.22 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.13; revenues rose 29900.0% year/year to $30 mln vs the $27.28 mln FactSet Consensus.
CorMedix is announcing preliminary net revenue guidance for first half of 2025 of $50 -- $60 million, based on the run rate of current purchasing customers, with more than $33 million expected in first quarter. In addition, the Company reiterates its previously announced cash operating expense guidance for 2025 of $72 -- $78 million.

AR +.20 to 41.41, trimmed my position substantially this morning .... the stock is up nearly 25% in the past 2 weeks, while NG prices have fallen around 10%. Seems like the stock is due for a pullback.

TSLA -3 to 275, a nice bounce from the low of $210 just two weeks ago .... in about a week they'll release their Q1 sales numbers which will be weak, but maybe not as bad as feared ? It will be interesting to see the numbers and how the stock reacts.

Here's a free Bloomberg article -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/is-tesla-in-trouble-why-tsla-stock-and-sales-are-falling?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc0MjkxMTA5MywiZXhwIjoxNzQzNTE1ODkzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTU09TWENUMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0MDZEMkY0Njc2Q0Q0QUREODU4N0E5MDY0QjExNzJBMyJ9.dMi1OyS2rdyaJffahpAGVtUdp9AZOd_mw8zlMG80IAw

MRP +.05 to 24.72, is worth a look .... it's a "land banking" REIT and recent LEN spinoff (Lennar is the nation's 2nd largest homebuilder)

briefing -

3/18 - Millrose Properties provides guidance for Q2, announces inaugural dividend (22.01 +0.26) :
Co guides to Q2 EPS of $0.65-0.68. Looking ahead, co anticipates achieving quarterly EPS run rate of $0.67-0.69 by year-end 2025.
Co also announces a major milestone: its inaugural dividend of $0.38 per share. This "stub" dividend covers the period from Millrose's spin-off from Lennar (LEN) on February 7, 2025 through March 31, 2025, and represents a pro-rated portion of what would equate to $0.65/sh on a normalized quarterly basis.
Co also reports strong progress on transactions outside of the Lennar Master Program Agreement, closing approximately $250 mln in such transactions since its spin-off, at yields exceeding 11%. Given the strong reception for its capital, and the momentum in signing up new third-party clients, Millrose expects to close at least an additional $100 mln of such transactions within the next 30 days and anticipates delivering at least $1 bln in such transactions for full-year 2025.
To support this accelerated growth, Millrose is actively working with its financial advisors to secure additional financing, ensuring ample capital to fund its expanding transaction pipeline.

3/17 - Millrose Properties provides guidance for Q2, announces inaugural dividend (22.01 +0.26) :
Co guides to Q2 EPS of $0.65-0.68. Looking ahead, co anticipates achieving quarterly EPS run rate of $0.67-0.69 by year-end 2025.
Co also announces a major milestone: its inaugural dividend of $0.38 per share. This "stub" dividend covers the period from Millrose's spin-off from Lennar (LEN) on February 7, 2025 through March 31, 2025, and represents a pro-rated portion of what would equate to $0.65/sh on a normalized quarterly basis.
Co also reports strong progress on transactions outside of the Lennar Master Program Agreement, closing approximately $250 mln in such transactions since its spin-off, at yields exceeding 11%. Given the strong reception for its capital, and the momentum in signing up new third-party clients, Millrose expects to close at least an additional $100 mln of such transactions within the next 30 days and anticipates delivering at least $1 bln in such transactions for full-year 2025.
To support this accelerated growth, Millrose is actively working with its financial advisors to secure additional financing, ensuring ample capital to fund its expanding transaction pipeline.

JVA +.29 to 4.63, earnings are very unpredictable given all their hedging and lack of disclosure of what their hedging positions are. Last year's EPS of $0.39 includes roughly $0.21 of hedging gains, but more often historically they've had hedging losses.

NOA -.59 to 16.81, after hitting a low of 15.09 .... I added a bunch of shares at an avg price of $16.10 ....

ASO 10K commentary on tariffs and China ....

FY24 10K -

General trade tensions between the United States and China began escalating in 2018, with the Trump administration ultimately imposing multiple rounds of tariffs on imports from China, where we and many of our vendors source commodities. As a result, we have experienced rising inventory costs on private label brand products we directly source from China, as well as national brand products from China that we source through our vendors. These higher inventory costs have resulted in higher prices and/or lower margins, thus resulting in a negative impact to sales and/or gross margin. Additionally, these tariffs have resulted in and could result in further retaliatory tariff actions by China and could ultimately result in further tariffs on merchandise that we, and many of our vendors, import from China. These tariffs have had an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. In response, we have sought alternative suppliers or vendors, raised prices, and made changes to our operations. The continuation of this situation could have further adverse effects on our sales and profitability, results of operations and financial condition. Since the date of our last annual report, no significant modifications have been enacted relative to the escalated tariffs which impact our business.

ASO - sneakers and lots of sports related equipment are produced in China, but hopefully they have shifted towards other countries. I don't know the specifics for ASO.

ASO (47.57) reports solid Jan Q4 earnings, but issues FY26 guidance a bit below estimates -

briefing -

Academy Sports + Outdoors beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line (47.57 ) :
Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $1.96 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.13 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.83; revenues fell 6.6% year/year to $1.68 bln vs the $1.68 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY26, sees EPS of $5.75-6.20, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $6.45 FactSet Consensus; sees FY26 revs of 6.09-6.27 bln vs. $6.24 bln FactSet Consensus.
The company expects the first quarter to be the most challenging from a sales and earnings per share prospective as they plan to open five stores and transition to the new Jordan floor set. They further expect their internal initiatives to start to positively impact results beginning in the second quarter. Additionally, they expect the back half of the year to be stronger than the first half as their internal initiatives take hold.

NOA (17.40) results and guidance look decent when considering the depressed stock price, down 26% from $23.37 a year ago. Keep in mind that the reported figures are in Canadian dollars, so multiply by 0.70 to convert to US dollars.

So based on FY25 adj EPS guidance of C$3.85 midpoint (equals US$2.70), the forward PE is a modest 6.4.

If the stock sells off tomorrow, I'll be adding shares.

GAP +.90 to 20.23, I joined you in GAP today .... bought the stock at 20.21 and sold the June $21 covered calls for $1.65. Cost basis is $18.56 with a 13% gain if I get assigned on the calls.

NOA +.53 to 17.48, ahead of earnings after the bell followed by a conf call at 9am tomorrow. The stock remains depressed but has at least rebounded from the low of $15.62 set a week ago .... at this price level some bad news has already been priced in.

TSLA ups and downs since 12/31/20 -

 
 Trend Start  Price         Trend End     Price      Gain/Loss %   Days in Trend 
  
 12/31/20      230.37        01/25/21      300.13         30.3%        16 
 01/25/21      300.13        02/23/21      206.33        -31.3%        21 
 03/04/21      200           02/24/21      248.33         24.2%        7 
 02/24/21      248.33        03/05/21      179.83        -27.6%        8 
 03/05/21      179.83        04/14/21      260.26         44.7%        28 
 04/14/21      260.26        05/19/21      182.33        -29.9%        26 
 05/19/21      182.33        11/04/21      414.5          127.3%       119 
 11/04/21      414.5         11/15/21      326.2         -21.3%        8 
 11/15/21      326.2         11/22/21      400.65         22.8%        6 
 11/22/21      400.65        12/21/21      295.37        -26.3%        21 
 12/21/21      295.37        01/04/22      402.67         36.3%        10 
 01/04/22      402.67        02/24/22      233.33        -42.1%        36 
 02/24/22      233.33        04/05/22      384.29         64.7%        29 
 04/05/22      384.29        05/24/22      206.86        -46.2%        35 
 05/24/22      206.86        06/02/22      264.21         27.7%        7 
 06/02/22      264.21        06/16/22      208.69        -21%          11 
 06/16/22      208.69        08/16/22      314.67         50.8%        42 
 08/16/22      314.67        01/06/23      101.81        -67.6%        100 
 01/06/23      101.81        02/16/23      217.65         113.8%       29 
 02/16/23      217.65        03/13/23      163.91        -24.7%        17 
 03/13/23      163.91        03/31/23      207.79         26.8%        15 
 03/31/23      207.79        04/27/23      152.37        -26.7%        19 
 04/27/23      152.37        07/19/23      299.29         96.4%        57 
 07/19/23      299.29        08/18/23      212.36        -29%          23 
 08/18/23      212.36        09/15/23      278.98         31.4%        20 
 09/15/23      278.98        10/31/23      194.07        -30.4%        33 
 10/31/23      194.07        12/28/23      265.13         36.6%        41 
 12/28/23      265.13        04/22/24      138.8         -47.6%        79 
 04/22/24      138.8         07/11/24      271            95.2%        56 
 07/11/24      271           08/05/24      182           -32.8%        18 
 08/05/24      182           12/18/24      488.54         168.4%       96 
 12/18/24      488.54        03/11/25      217.02        -55.6%        55
                            

TSLA stock was up over 700% in 2020, a spectacular single year gain, but since the start of 2021 it has been a poor performer relative to the S&P500. Even so, for those who timed it right, there were certainly plenty of nice trading opportunities, both long and short, over the past 4 years.

 
 Performance since 12/31/20 - 
  
 TKR    % Change   Cur Price   Start Price 
  
 $SPX     49%        5614.66      3756.07 
 TSLA     -4%        225.31       235.22
                            

NVDA GTC conference is all week with the keynote by CEO Jensen Huang today .... is the 20th important for quantum stocks ?

https://www.nvidia.com/gtc/

Have you considered trading a few stocks on the short side by opening and closing short positions, targeting quick profits ? We're in a downward trending market, so hedging long positions with a few small short positions could be effective.

SOXS, SPXS, TSLS, NVDS, TSLA, NVDA

TSLA -13 to 223, after Chinese competitor BYD announces a fast charger that adds 250 miles of charge in a mere 5 minutes ! Essentially as fast as tanking up with gas and much better that Tesla.

TSLA has been a good trader recently, but one has to take quick profits, which hopefully you did.

https://electrek.co/2025/03/17/byd-confirms-1000v-super-e-platform-fast-charging-400km-5-minutes/

DXYZ +5.69 to 38.99, a huge 55% gain from $25.19 just last Tuesday .... timing is everything !

KINS -1.73 to 14.90, I picked up some shares at $15 and sold the July $15 covered calls for $2.50 .... a cost basis of $12.5 on the stock with upside of 20% if I get assigned on the calls.

JVA -.84 to 4.69, yikes, this has been an epic collapse since hitting $9.93 a week ago ! I wonder when they'll report earnings ? The chart looks like there's decent technical support in the mid to upper $3's and at this rate it will soon be there.

Walmart merchandise is now 60% from China, down from 80% in 2018 ..... India has become a significant supplier as well. So they've shifted some merchandise to India. Cheap labor is what they want. I think they also increasingly import from Vietnam and Bangladesh.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/walmart-shifts-india-china-cheaper-imports-2023-11-29/

WMT, TGT

SSK - WOW - SSKMP has less than 1% cash .... at this rate you'll be on margin by Monday, lol.

SMTC +5.84 to 38.54, nice rally after posting solid Jan Q4 earnings -

briefing -

Semtech beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line (32.71 -1.14) :
Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $0.40 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.32; revenues rose 30.1% year/year to $251 mln vs the $249.2 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues in-line guidance for Q1 (Apr), sees EPS of $0.34-0.40, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.34 FactSet Consensus; sees Q1 revs of $245-255 mln vs. $250.92 mln FactSet Consensus.

JVA -.46 to 5.95, thanks for the price alert, I just picked up a few shares for fun, but wouldn't consider putting serious money in this stock. It might be a blowout quarter, but it's only one quarter. Coffee prices and margins will inevitably come back down. I'll sell if the stock spikes up after blowout earnings, but plenty of others will have the same plan, which will put a damper on any rally. jmho

AAOI +4.22 to 20.09, would have made a great short at $30+ yesterday evening. That Amazon warrant is evidently a free give away to Amazon, though it gives Amazon a vested interest that could influence them to buy more AAOI products, but that's questionable. That aside, it's just a dilutive transaction that doesn't benefit AAOI directly.

Maybe traders misinterpreted the announcement yesterday after the bell ?

FEIM (14.06) reports Jan Q3 EPS of $0.37, excluding a big tax benefit. That's up sequentially from Q2 EPS of $0.29, pretax. Backlog is down from $81M to $73M sequentially, however that's still nearly a year of backlog at the current revenue run rate.

WMT sales are 59% grocery while Target is at 23% .... interesting, I had no idea that Walmart was so heavily into groceries !

NTCT (20.77) looks moderately attractive, but would have to get down near the 52wk low of $17 for me to buy. Jan Q3 was very strong but got a boost from orders pulled from Q4 into Q3. So Q4 estimates have come down accordingly.

PR -

“Our Q3 fiscal year 2025 revenue and earnings results exceeded our expectations with strong performance across both our Cybersecurity and Service Assurance product lines. These results include certain customer orders received in our Q3 that were anticipated to be received in our Q4, as customers leveraged their calendar year-end budgets. The contribution of these early orders enhanced our Q3 performance, providing greater visibility and reinforcing our confidence in achieving our full fiscal year 2025 financial objectives.

Looking ahead, as we enter the final quarter of our fiscal year 2025, we are narrowing our fiscal 2025 outlook ranges while maintaining the midpoints from previous guidance for revenue and non-GAAP net income per share. We remain focused on executing effectively as we position the Company for fiscal year 2026 and beyond.

TGT (107) versus WMT (85) .... why not diversify and buy some TGT instead of more WMT ?

TGT has a forward PE of just 12 versus WMT at 32. TGT yields around 4% versus WMT at 1%.

Walmart has been the winner over Target the past decade, but at current valuations TGT looks like the better buy with a 12 to 18 month time horizon.

SSK - you have under 8% cash as of last Friday, almost unheard of for the SSKMP portfolio. So right now you pretty much have to sell something to buy something ..... unless of course you dare go on margin ???

Yup, definitely feels like a "sell the rallies" market .... the S&P was up sharply to start the day, but it's just 11am and already it's in the red. Would have been a good idea to buy some SPXS when this morning's rally started to fade already at 9:45am !

TSLA +19 to 250, an impressive bounce from $210 after hours on Monday .... but I'm skeptical that this broader market rally is anything more than a bounce from oversold conditions and think it will continue to ratchet lower. The same fate could await TSLA, but good luck !

COHR +2.82 to 69.30, great timing on your buy at 61.54, a better than 12% gain ..... I presume you'll be taking some quick profits ?

TSLL +1.24 to 9.15, nice call on the TSLA bounce .... are you taking quick profits or holding on for bigger gains ?

Small cap O&G stocks have gotten crushed by the recent plunge in crude oil prices, now at $66/bbl, down from $78/bbl in mid January. I'm way under water in my CIVI position which is now at 4 year lows. Glad I got out of VTLE which has been battered.

My AR position, a pure play on NatGas, is holding up well thanks to a cold winter and high prices, around $4.30/mcf. But NG looks overvalued so I've been shorting the futures as a hedge. KOLD is another way to bet on falling NG prices.

40% of the S&P500 stocks are already in a bear market, down at least 20% from their highs .....

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-dreaded-trump-bear-market-is-here-now-for-40-stocks/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqEAgAKgcICjDOm4YLMJD1gwMw2cbdAw&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=g&gaa_n=AerBZYPTo42oVpjXRtX6DM4YoXQIXrPNUx7_PPUyUz6kQCcDobsLx7yF2l5RVtpk81JJ5CGfy97u3DNBHb-wKtf3hB5JTsR6mQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=67d15ec7&gaa_sig=yy4AC1phopzzAnDzk39qFqyFVKQI256eWoGPxMiawGZ_kpy-D4Kaz_VIiNQ3i7Lr7utQ21DXxJVgN6SH9FNrRA%3D%3D

KSS +.05 to 9.20 in pre-market .... looks like you already got a nice 5% bounce if you bought at the $8.75 bottom yesterday. Kohl's looks likes it's in a downward spiral given the awful guidance and that would be aggravated if a recession is looming. Covered call premiums are fairly good, but taking quick 5% profits might be the better choice. Good luck.

btw, the one bright spot is tangible book value of around $34, but many of their strip mall properties are probably worth less than book value and they do also have lots of debt.

briefing -

Kohl's beats by $0.23, reports revs in-line, comparable sales decreased 6.7%; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (12.05 -0.16) :
Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $0.95 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.23 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.72; revenues fell 9.4% year/year to $5.17 bln vs the $5.19 bln FactSet Consensus.
Comparable sales decreased 6.7%.
Inventory was $2.9 billion, an increase of 2% year-over-year.
Co issues downside guidance for FY26, sees EPS of $0.10-$0.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.18 FactSet Consensus; sees FY26 revs of $14.32-$14.63 bln vs. $15.45 bln FactSet Consensus. Sees comparable sales of a decrease of (4%) to a decrease of (6%).

PLAY will report Jan Q4 in a few weeks .... last year it was on 4/2. I think it will be a disappointing report but I could be wrong and some bad news is already priced in. Maybe it will rally despite an earnings miss as happened with DIN. Good luck.

S&P500 -83 to 5531, now down 10% from the high of 6147 set just a few weeks ago on 2/19.

We're now officially in a major correction.

PLAY -2.20 to 18.61 after a credit rating downgrade -

Dave & Buster's Entertainment shares fell after S&P Global Ratings
downgraded its outlook to negative from positive.
The stock fell 11% to $18.60, at one point touching a 52-week low of $18.26.
Shares have lost about 70% of their value over the past year.
S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday that it lowered its outlook for the Dallas
dining-and-entertainment venue operator due to broader pressure on
discretionary spending, as well as uncertainty that planned store openings
and renovations will improve traffic and stabilize same-store sales.
The ratings agency said household spending is tight, particularly among
lower-income customers. Dave & Buster's offers a highly discretionary
service that faces competition from both restaurants and entertainment
venues, S&P said.
Dave & Buster's has already reported seven straight quarters of same-store
sales declines, the ratings agency noted. S&P expects a base case in which
Dave & Buster's same-store sales growth improves but is still negative.