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As of 12/31/16 Mannkind had 152.1 million dollars in debt.
The market capitalization is only a fraction of the cost of buying Mannkind.
As I've said over and over again Mannkind is priced where it is because it's selling shares to survive.
Personally I don't think the stock is worth anything. I think the company is going to have a great deal of difficulty finding an acquirer willing to payoff 152.1 million in debt just to lose 10 million a month.
From Seeking Alpha (Spencer Osborne).
His on and on post:
some retail investors are their own worst enemy
MannKind management tosses out a statement and retail investors let theri imagination run wild.
A tweet says "the number of cartiges has increase"
Retail investors do cartwheels, jumping jacks, and the limbo to turn that statement into an idea that we should double the number of reported scripts to account for extra cartridges
Who is to blame there? Naive retail investors.
Give a naive retail investor a nugget, and let them run along with their imagination. That stops the crazies from calling the office every other day, and stalking management on Twitter.....at leastuntil the next report comes out and the retail investor realizes that he let his imagination take him too far......TIME FOR ANOTHER NUGGET.
Sanofi just dropped us - Tell investors we have had many calls with interest about partnering.
Getting ready to launch in july - Tell investors we analyzed the issues and understand what needs to be done
700 reps to 70 - tell investors these 70 are full time, well trained, and focused
Sales going slow - Tell investors we are working through inventory, but situation is under control
Sales still slow - We are moving away from a hired sales force and are going to directly employ.
NASDAQ delisting danger - We will regain compliance organically...the stock price will take care of itself given the news of the settlement
Reverse split - we will only do it as a last resort
Reverse split - we will do it from a position of strength
Refills not rising - new package and another new titration pack
no traction in sales - The cartridges are going up
ADA Conference - No need to go...a waste of needed money....mostly international anyway
We will sponsor a show (on a rarely watched cable network)
It is amazing that some do not see these things
Not sure I trust that. ABX is down about 10% while other majors are only down about 3.7%.
As of their 8pm closes GDX is up 6.2% for the year. ABX is up 6.0% for the year.
The important thing to remember is that the entire loan was due to be repaid because of the delisting a few months ago.
But whoever was owed the money chose not to get immediately repaid on the low interest rate (5%) loan.
So most people agree that the money was already owed to an insider and today's news did nothing more than double the interest rate.
If anyone hasn't figured out that the crooked management is responsible for the stock falling from (a split-adjusted) millions of dollars per share to 1.33 I doubt seeking alpha is going to wise them up.
Mannkind short interest way up.
3/31/2017: 19,490,324
4/15/2017: 21,583,374
With sales showing no increase, and cash rapidly running out, this is one of the most obvious shorting candidates in the market.
More information about this, ...
Different trials, of different age patients, who are sicker or not so sick, have vastly different survival outcomes.
Some studies have PFS numbers in the multiple number of years.
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/99/21029_Temodar_medr_P4.pdf
This is highly relevant to the fact that NWBO removed all the sickest (and oldest) patients from their trial.
2 years ago Sanofi started promoting two new diabetes drugs.
http://www.ajmc.com/journals/evidence-based-diabetes-management/2015/may-2015/toujeo-and-afrezza-new-and-improved-insulins-limited-by--fda-labeling-constraints
One was fast acting. Today Afrezza is running at a sales rate of about 8 million dollars per year.
The other was the reverse, long lasting. Today Toujeo is running at a sale rate of almost one billion dollars per year.
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/02/08/914925/0/en/Sanofi-Delivers-2016-Sales-and-Business-EPS-1-Growth-at-CER-2.html
When it was at 6.80 they announced the ridiculous bubble in gold stocks was making it hard to run their business.
Next trading day it opened at 6.82.
It's not going to zero because a handful people ignored their honest and very clear warning.
Now you're saying the price of gold matters?
Today gold is the same price it was March 3rd, 2016.
Then GDXJ was at 27.37.
If it was at that level today (27.37/32.12) ^ 3 * 4.49) that would put JNUG at 2.78.
Is that what you consider a fair non-manipulated price?
This has been happening for months.
TVIX & UVXY rally with no actual increase in volatility in the market. Then they crash back to where they belong.
Note the VIX is still 40% higher than the actual volatility over the last 30 days. Even worse the futures that TVIX owns are way above the VIX.
Can't compare the massive bear mentality with now,
That's exactly what people were saying last fall when I brought up the gold stock bubble.
Afterward in a very predictable fashion JNUG fell over 52% without the price of gold falling at all.
p.s. I can compare very very well.
We've had this discussion a million times.
Today gold is at about the same price it was on the following dates.
10/28/16 39.61
4/28/16 36.38
3/10/16 28.02
GDXJ went from 28.02 to 39.61 without gold moving up at all.
The fact that GDXJ is back down to 33.70 was totally expected and I've posted about it being very likely over and over again.
The only shocking thing was the size of the bubble in gold stocks. The fact that it burst --- totally normal.
AF and his short peers are really good with this kind of reasoning.
On the contrary, ...
AF clearly explained why DCVAX is a very likely failure.
Subsequently the stock rose to a multi-year high of 12.55.
Subsequently the stock lost more than 98% of its value.
p.s.
What you call allegations I call facts, including that Linda Powers had a career at Enron before coming to NWBO to steal investor dollars.
You make it sound like 38% of those using Afrezza are in danger of not getting enough insulin.
No, I try to explain to you how there is not even a hypothetical demand for a product like Afrezza.
Nobody is complaining that their insulin lasts so long that a single dose suffices and they miss the fun of taking multiple doses of Afrezza.
The higher doses required that you refer to are for heavier meals. The benefits of Afrezza far outweigh the problems associated with injected insulin.
Most people on Afrezza are on Afrezza PLUS injected insulin.
How is it a good thing that Afrezza acts so quickly that 38% of people need to continually retest themselves after eating and take more insulin?
The article refutes what you said about Afrezza not being more effective for mealtime insulin. I don't have the time to respond to all your imaginary interpretations of known facts.
This is the complete study: http://www.mannkindcorp.com/assets/Heinmann-JDiabSciTech-2017.pdf
You think it's more effective because it's fact acting. Mannkind reports that 38% of patients need an extra dose because it doesn't last long enough.
The article indicates that patients and doctors are having a hard time using Afrezza.
Afrezza's label was wrong: Afrezza's labeled dose overestimates its effect reinforcing the need for appropriate dose titration
For Mannkind having an incorrect label is probably the best news of 2016.
About 46,000 shares traded at a dollar in the three second interval between 10:07:56 and 10:07:59.
RTQ: 98 cents.
XBIT down 40% to 10.19.
When people don't listen to Adam Feuerstein they lose money.
He pointed out last Summer, when XBIT was in the mid 20s, that XBIT didn't have a chance.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13628326/1/xbiotech-cancer-drug-survival-claim-falls-apart-under-scrutiny.html
There's lots of good that you can say from the FDA study. Afrezza more closely replicates the natural mealtime insulin response of the pancreas than any other drug in the marketplace. Afrezza doesn't have 1/10 the harmful side effects of many drugs routinely appearing on ads on TV.
The FDA trial documented more than one side effect per patient.
It didn't conclude that Afrezza "more closely replicates the natural mealtime insulin response of the pancreas".
None of that can legally appear in any advertisement.
There's not much good that you can say about Afrezza based on the FDA trial. Nobody can make a claim in an ad that hasn't been proven in an FDA trial. Nobody can legally say, I tried it, and it works better than another drug.
The black box warning for Afrezza is long and by law needs to appear in every ad.
Companies are not allowed to make anecdotal ads. They have to describe what happened in the FDA trial. You know, more than one side-effect per person. Afrezza was proven not to be worse than the competition. They didn't even attempt to prove it was better.
Ignore:
1. Anecdotal evidence
2. Anyone who claims experts should be ignored (calling Endos idiots, etc.)
3. Anyone who pretends that there's something surprising about any insulin lowering blood sugar
"These endos and docs think they are gods and can never be wrong"
The people this statement applies to best are not doctors, or shorts.
If you want real research, this passed by my desk today.
The gist of it is, is that people are being prescribed too many diabetes medications.
http://circoutcomes.ahajournals.org/content/10/4/e003514
2nd installment of The Biden Chronicles:
MBNA was based in Delaware. Before they were bought out in 2006 they routinely donated money to their local political officials. That's about the most common thing in the world.
MBNA was the #1 donor of the Democrat and the #1 donor of the Republican.
https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00001664&cycle=Career
Anyone know why DDRT popped 16% today?
Somebody spent a couple thousand dollars on a stock with a very wide bid/ask spread.
It's not unusual given its history:
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DDRT/history?p=DDRT
Today JNUG closed at 5.75 but was worth only 5.62.
Since the close, GDXJ is up 8 cents and JNUG is down 7 cents.
2.3% a day doesn't sound like much, but it amounts to 2345% a year (there's lots of compounding) and even better a computer program can do it.
http://www.direxioninvestments.com/products/direxion-daily-junior-gold-miners-bull-3x-etf
So now GDXJ is up .03 and JNUG is down .12 ... WTF is that ???
At the close yesterday JNUG had 5.72 in assets. But it closed at 5.90.
The market is trying to correct but people keep over-paying for it. Be patient. The smart money will bring it down to its true value.
That price per share or NAV value is based on the number of shares and assets no?
Yes.
Every share is created or destroyed at the NAV.
Since 3/10/2016:
GLD up 0.37 percent
GDXJ up 23.7 percent
Gold up 4 dollars an ounce, JNUG effectively up over 70% (23.7 * 3).
Last year when gold was about the price it is now GDXJ was in the low 28s. Now it's 34.68.
Very few people seem to be aware that JNUG has almost doubled in the last 13 1/2 months without gold going up.
Good common sense, Down and JNUG does indeed have a large decay to it that comes with that futures based leveraged.
As of a few months ago GDXJ was up more than 40% without gold going up at all. Gold stocks were way overpriced. That's been correcting and was simple to predict.
It had nothing to do with leveraged decay.
Dilution has nothing to do with the value of JNUG.
It is supposed to trade alongside the value of its assets.
To make it extremely simple for everyone there's even a quote that tells you its real value:
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EJNUG-IV?p=^JNUG-IV
Those are quarterly numbers.
Breakeven is at least a 2500 percent increase.
Management didn’t want to discuss this, because then patients on the control arm might want to shift to the active arm, which would render the trial invalid.
Complete and utter nonsense. The patients don't know which arm they're in.
p.s. Though I guess it'd be interesting if people, racked with pain dying of brain cancer, requested the placebo.
Some guy called downWithPumpers said over and over again for months that GDXJ was going up and up without gold going up.
Things have returned to normal as commonsense indicated they would.
For example: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=127267592
despicable in this space where people are trying to cure a horrible disease
Hey! DC-VAX1 doesn't cure any diseases.
small biotechnology company attempting to stop cancer
Hey! DC-VAX1 doesn't stop cancer.
NWBO did not state that mPFS is 15 months for SOC, they said mPFS is 7 months for SOC and mOS is 15 months for SOC.
It is scandalous that NWBO would say something like that. They completely ignore that most people with the disease weren't eligible to be enrolled in the trial. Many of the eligibility criteria were designed to keep the sickest patients from enrolling. In a commonsense world everyone would be saying DC-VAX1 enrollment criteria are why people are not dying at a high rate.
Instead NWBO purposely has mislead people into thinking that their treatment cures cancer.
Tens of millions of dollars of investor dollars lost based on management lies, and nobody has gone to jail.
So you mean there are 14.000 cases in the USA, 14.000 cases in EU, they sum up to 28.000 cases to which you apply a 110K/treatment and voilà my 3B in revenues.
There are no where near 14 thousand cases per year in the U.S. Almost everyone who gets brain cancer gets it because their cancer has spread, from elsewhere in the body, and they're getting ready to die.
A significant number don't have their tumor removed either because it's non-operable or because they're dying of other reasons.
I posted the results of a study that showed the real number of patients recently.