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You call for so many different things over time, don't you? When happy hour arrives, I'll dig up your 1.8GHz claim.
Hey "I'm gonna be very rich when Intel hits $37/sh" katie, has your hubbie fled Intel along with the IPF engineers?
I don't think you want to start talking about your predictions. Especially with Intel at $19.xx, and AMD at $33.xx today.
Or perhaps you don't think AMD will
have 65 nm parts ready for Cray by 2008?
Try to keep up with the news:
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=30638
Yes, I believe wbmw called for 1.8GHz QC as a "realistic" estimate. Wrong again. What a surprise!
I surmise that at the rate you're going, you'll have nothing left in your brokerage account within another year or so. :)
Oh, I see. Such high standards!
It would appear you replied to the wrong post.
That's not data, it's analyst opinion. As for Mr. Bhavani's opinion, besides 64b mattering more, AMD's "corner" is May 9, Intel's "corner" is Novemberish. See if you can figure out the implications and adjust your portfolio appropriately for once.
Yeah, "beige cases" must be a differentiator in desktop sales because a lot of desktops get sold with them. Brilliant.
Yikes. Do I really need to point out the flaw in that line of argument?
Of course those are same "several" that invested in Intel instead of AMD over the past few years... :)
Mmmm, no, looks like growth is slowing in Intel notebooks. With Intel at 90% of the notebook market you can't tell anything about AMD notebook sales from such reports.
'It seems to sell laptops'? You base this on what data, exactly?
Centrino is a marketing ploy, period. Not an actual feature or benefit, and thus not a differentiator for consumers.
Duh, Kate, hence the May 9 reference. DC mobile will no longer be a differentiator for Intel, while 64b mobile will *remain* a differentiator for AMD.
'Centrino' isn't a differentiator.
Will Intel hit $17 before it hits your $37 dream target?
And are you a normal investor? Nah. :) Normal investors like to *make* money. :)
Nice try, but no indication of any hardware problems there. Sounds like a chipset driver issue, if that.
Oh Katie, you missed the recent news:
http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20060317A1001.html
Leading notebook vendors slash orders with Intel due to weak demand, say sources
David Tzeng, Taipei; Steve Shen, DigiTimes.com [Friday 17 March 2006]
Leading notebook vendors, including Dell, Hewlett-Packard (HP), Acer and Asustek Computer, reportedly have slashed their orders for CPUs and chipsets already placed with Intel by 30-50% due to an unexpected rise in notebook inventory in the first quarter of this year, according to sources at Taiwan notebook makers.
Most vendors were caught off guard by rising inventory levels, as demand for notebooks in the first quarter was much weaker than expected, the sources noted, who added that most vendors had expected strong sales from the beginning of this year amid a continuous expansion in the desktop replacement market.
Vendors suspect that consumers are waiting for the launch of dual-core Napa-based notebooks, resulting in slow sales for the single-core Sonoma-based notebooks, the sources indicated. Although some Napa-based notebooks are available now, consumers also have shunned them due to their higher prices, the sources noted.
In addition, the planned year-end launch of Microsoft’s Vista OS is also a concern as consumers are worried that the notebooks they buy now might not be able to run with the 64-bit enabled Vista OS, the sources stated.
Helped by inventory control measures, including a reduction in CPU orders, vendors have seen their inventories start to improve in February and should be reduced substantially in March, the sources indicated.
Local notebook makers also urged Intel to implement in advance a planned May 28 price reduction of its Yonah CPUs so as to boost sales of Napa notebooks.
Intel Taiwan declined to comment on the report.
Oh yes they are, katie. Yonah's lack of 64-bitness spells trouble for both consumer and corporate sales. In the same power envelope, Turion X2 offers 64b. Intel can't get to Merom soon enough, and, coming in Q4, it'll miss back-to-school AND holiday builds in the consumer area.
Don't forget to add memory controller TDP to the Yonah numbers, and adjust for Intel's liberal TDP definition.
64-bitless Yonah will be truly worthless as of May 9:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22272108
Yes, I agree you are completely ignorant of patent law and the trade agreements that have taken place, as Alan helpfully pointed out after you made your latest WRONG AGAIN post.
Another classic wbmw WRONG AGAIN post.
Yes, Intel fans denying what an Intel exec said...
What recent delay in Turion X2? Launching May 8 or 9, no?
You don't get it-- they'd rather give up some share, especially with AMD near capacity, than ruin pricing for the long term. If they cut prices now, it'll be very difficult to raise them in the future, despite a stronger product, because Intel is such a large % of the market.
They also don't have the second option in the server market for at least the same amount of time.
Intel exec says no price war with AMD.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060310/tc_nm/intel_amd_dc
HANOVER, Germany (Reuters) - Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news) will fight off inroads into its market share by rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD - news) with a quality offensive, not by cutting prices, Intel's European sales chief told Reuters on Friday.
"We can cut prices or bring out better products. We prefer the second option," Juergen Thiel told Reuters in an interview at CeBIT, the world's biggest IT and telecoms trade fair.
"Of course, our competition doesn't sleep," he added.
[...]
You were also the one saying the K8 would suck, and that IPF would take over the world. Oh, and that Prescott would have a nice IPC boost. And that SGI stock was a good buy at $2, and then again at $1.
For some reason this thread reminds me of the image
of an every more dellusional
Brilliant.
Talking about yourself there? :)
not in end product frequency
Did you even read what you quoted?!
"PERFORMANCE improvements at the product level that he said could approach 50 percent."
------------
generally more than one can hope for by moving an entire process generation
You haven't been paying attention. Strain engineering is now becoming more important than process geometry when it comes to power & performance.
Nope, part of the breakthrough was that the method has no impact on yields. And the amount of Ge required is far lower than other techniques.
ROFLMAO. Kate, so sorry to hear that you're "Reeling Over Financial Losses -- My Account's Obliterated!"
LOL, if that's conservative, what's "realistic"? Frequency^2?
When they talk about performance deltas, I'm assuming they DON'T mean performance of applications, but rather, the chip frequency.
Duh.
BTW, here's another reference, since you seem to have blocked out the SiGe announcement:
Andy Wei, a member of the technical staff based at AMD Dresden, described a new process that AMD will first retrofit into its 90-nm microprocessors, and then use in its 65-nm designs going into production in the second half of next year at AMD’s new 300-mm fab in Dresden.
IBM will use the new process for its initial 65-nm processors, said Gary Bronner, an IBM project leader at the IBM-AMD alliance based in East Fishkill, N.Y.
“Strain engineering has replaced gate oxide scaling as the means to improve PERFORMANCE, because of leakage considerations at the gate,” Wei told a crowd of several hundred at a Tuesday IEDM session.
AMD and IBM last year used a dual-stress-liner approach for their 90-nm transistors, putting differently configured nitride capping layers on top of the NMOS and PMOS transistors. At the 65-nm node, the partners added an embedded SIGE layer similar to what Intel used at the 90-nm node. Wei said “a big boost came when we added the embedded SIGE” at the source and drain regions of the PMOS transistor.
The PMOS devices now run almost as fast as the NMOS transistors. Wei said the new process will allow design engineers to better balance the size of the N- and PMOS transistors to achieve PERFORMANCE improvements at the product level that he said could approach 50 percent.
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=174901200
when really it's just AMD's old 90nm process with some scotch tape on it.
LOL!!!
If you want to call somewhere in the region of 13-25% increased performance over the current DSL strain, at the same power, "scotch tape", well, you go right ahead.
To be conservative, let's assume that by "performance" the process guys really mean frequency.
And let's take the middle of the range: 19%.
That 2.6GHz DC part will run at 3.1GHz DC at the same power with SiGe strain.
Where did I get 13-25% ?
DSL was quoted variously as achieving 20-24% better frequency("performance") than no strain at all at the same power.
SiGe was quoted variously as achieving 40-50% better frequency ("performance") than no strain at all at the same power.
Best case: 1.5 / 1.2 = 1.25 = 25% better
Worst case: 1.4 / 1.24 = 1.13 = 13% better
That "scotch tape" of yours may well erase Conroe's supposed advantages.
By the way, how are those INTC calls of yours doing?
I bought 2008 LEAPs for a reason. As I said at the time, the position is largely a hedge, and I didn't think I'd time the bottom in INTC stock perfectly. Of course, who could've foreseen then that they couldn't even meet their dreadful Q1 guidance, and would need to lower again within a month and a half.
If INTC touches $17, I'll consider adding more to that position.
AMD stock isn't the security setting new long-term lows. :)
Now, now, kate, just because YOU'VE lost it/money/... says nothing about Intel magically improving their 4-socket scaling problems.
Are you saying you feel like a "hurt little puppy" these days, smooth? <ggg>
The ISSCC paper showed a 2.6GHz part running in a 95W power envelope
And that part wasn't an SiGe part. Good one.
and you will be proven wrong. Again.
I wouldn't want to steal your limelight on that count.
BTW, especially for paul:
Intel throws good money after a bad chip
After spending billions of dollars, why hasn't Intel pulled the plug on Itanium yet?
Business 2.0 Magazine
By Owen Thomas, Business 2.0 Magazine online editor
March 9, 2006: 4:17 PM EST
SAN FRANCISCO (Business 2.0 Magazine) - Much to Wall Street's dismay, Intel is continuing to invest billions of dollars in Itanium, a chip that most of the industry has written off.
Keeping the peace
Last week, Intel (Research), Hewlett-Packard (Research), and some smaller server makers announced plans to spend $10 billion to promote Itanium-based servers, with half of that sum coming from HP, whose Integrity server line runs on Itanium. Industry observers believe that most of the remainder is coming from Intel.
This additional spending comes on top of billions of dollars in R&D expenditures that went into bringing the chip to market.
Why is Intel throwing good money after bad? Intel depends on hardware and software partners who design servers and code specifically for its chips. Much of the value of Intel's popular desktop chips comes from the fact that, say, HP PCs and Microsoft's (Research) Windows operating system run on top of them.
For those partners who have invested heavily in Itanium, killing the chip would be an unacceptable betrayal on Intel's part, leaving their Itanium customers stranded and likely to seek out new systems from rivals. Such a move would have ramifications beyond Itanium's server niche, prompting Intel's partners to punish the chipmaker by buying chips from other suppliers.
Keeping Itanium alive might seem like an awfully high price to pay for the software industry's loyalty. But with a resurgent AMD (Research) offering an increasingly attractive alternative to Intel's desktop and server chips, Intel needs to stay in partners' good graces.
Itanium was born 12 years ago out of a collaboration between Intel and HP. At the time, high-end server makers like IBM (Research), Sun (Research), and HP designed their own chips as well as their own servers. HP wanted a partner to share the costs of a new chip design, while Intel, whose chips at the time were only used in desktop PCs and cheap servers, wanted to become a supplier to the high end of the server market.
Intel and HP planned to crack that market with a processor that gulped down software code 64 bits at a time. In the 1990s, Intel chips were limited to 32 bits, which hobbled Intel-based servers' ability to compete with 64-bit servers from IBM and Sun. Intel and HP also planned to design a chip that would have a key advantage: The ability to run existing software for 32-bit Intel processors without requiring software makers to rework their code -- most notably Microsoft's ubiquitous Windows operating system.
A rough start
Itanium faced long delays in getting to market, however, and when it was introduced in 2001, its performance running 32-bit software was abysmal. It turned out that to get any performance gains out of Itanium, software makers would have to rewrite their code after all.
That gave longtime Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices an opening to beat Itanium at its own game. In 2003, AMD introduced its first Opteron chips, which ran both 32-bit and 64-bit software well.
To catch up, Intel copied AMD's approach and adapted an existing 32-bit chip line to also run 64-bit software. Intel now sells those chips, called Xeon, alongside Itanium.
IBM and Dell (Research) stopped making Itanium servers in 2005, and Sun abandoned plans to translate its Solaris operating system for Itanium systems. IBM and Sun now make servers with AMD's Opteron chips, while Dell uses Intel's hybrid 32/64-bit Xeon chips.
Itanium has also missed a major technical shift -- the introduction of multiple processing "cores" inside a single chip. Dual-core processors can run more efficiently than single-core processors, and Intel has already introduced them into its Xeon line, but the first dual-core Itanium chip isn't expected out until later this year.
Eric Ross, lead semiconductor analyst at ThinkEquity Partners, calls Itanium's situation a "death spiral," noting that by some estimates, the industry has only sold $2 billion of Itanium systems last year, a tiny slice of the $48 billion sever market.
"Why aren't Intel and HP spending $10 billion on marketing Woodcrest?" asked Ross, referring to Intel's codename for an upcoming 32/64-bit server chip which Intel claims will outperform AMD's offerings.
That's the $10 billion question.
Intel has two unattractive choices: Kill Itanium and risk its partners' wrath, or split its marketing and R&D budgets between Xeon and Itanium. Either way, AMD ends up with a strategic advantage -- and Intel with a silicon albatross.