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Thanks. Good to know.
BJ _ I am tapped out but keep a list that I might explore someday so I added IDRA and started poking around a little. Something caught my eye - there is a buy recommendation from Rodman and Renshaw for that stock. I don't know much about R&R but all this seems a little incestuous. Am I to believe that R&R might issue a buy recommendation for CTIX in the future if they like what they hear at their conference? Is that how this R&R thing works?
Thanks JB. It gets complicated. It is enough to make your head spin between the authorized, float, outstanding, restricted, fully diluted, warrants, Class A and potentially Class B shares. Especially when they are in play and our updates are periodic. You seem to have a good handle on it.
I may be off or it may be a matter of things in motion that aren't fully reflected yet. I took my info from page 7 of the prospectus I mentioned where it states:
Class A Common Stock outstanding prior to the offering 95,623,034.
Class A Common Stock to be outstanding after the offering
107,522,235.
Glad to hear you are done with the surgery and home. We are all pulling for you Magic!
Yes, I saw it. I have no idea of the relationship between Leo and Hyman, other than what is stated. I do know that companies often form from the remains of another company and the former company officers make out very well in such arrangements. It saves the new company a lot of time and trouble.
From the prospectus:..."Ethel Schwartz is consultant who provides Paralegal and corporate administrative services to the Company> Ethel Schwartz is the spouse of Hyman Schwartz. None of these consultants are employees or affiliates of the company."
Shares outstanding is now around 107.5 M as of the 2/28 prospectus. That prospectus has interesting info regarding exercised warrants, selling shareholders and goes into depth regarding the arrangement with Aspire. As one example, E Schwartz exercised options on 12/21/12 for 1.68M shares that she paid .10 for 12/29/2010. That was interesting to me because I was wondering about that plunge on 12/29/10 and who got those .10 shares. Best I can figure, fully diluted is up to 151,356,285 now.
I do appreciate that windansea. I am sort of all in in one sense but not in another. My whole investing life I have believed in a pyramid approach to my investments. The risky stuff at the top, safe stuff at the bottom. If I do well at the top, I route some of it to the bottom and that way the base of the pyramid and what I can play with in the high risk stuff at the peak of the pyramid both grow.
I usually have the high risk stuff spread between 5 or 6 things. Sometimes 8 or 9. Not this time. But the base is still secure. I am not touching that. But my risk $ are all pretty much committed and it is not like me to have as much in one stock. But this is CTIX were talking about!
I could lose all of this and be okay but I would not like it one bit! It would really make me back off my risky plays for a while. If for no other reason than lack of as much money in the tip of the pyramid. Hoping for a better outcome than that.
We've got the same diagnosis. I just can't find a better alternative. All the things you listed plus the fact that it seems so under the radar that the price is still attractive. It is making me creative as I am finding new excuses to cash out of other things. I just cashed out of an investment from 2001 that is a privately held deal. I won't get the money until mid Sept and I'm fretting because it will be after the conference. But at least I'll have some dry powder again.
I am tapped out for now. But that is only the buy side. Who is selling?
Now that sounds better.
Sure sounds nice. But you know what - it reminds me of a girl I once dated. Sure looked nice but when she opened her mouth there wasn't anything there. The first part could apply to the preclinical. The second part of "probably" in 5th cohort , well you understand if I'm not too impressed. We have had speculation in the 6th cohort on this board. Still I am glad you posted as I like the enthusiasm from the other board.
I bought more CTIX today. Is anyone else feeling as if they are breaking their own rules of investing? I am getting pretty concentrated here. I have liquidated 2 other positions to add to CTIX (both were gains but I thought I would hold longer.) Down from 6 stocks to 4 and the other 3 combined do not equal half my CTIX position. I keep eyeing the others to sell although only PRAN is a winner at this point. I won't sell that. Maybe it is good that I am in the hole on the other two or I would probably sell them and get even more concentrated. I guess I subscribe to that saying of Huck Finn's that if you're in you might as well be in whole hog!
Share price is moving!
I hope this link works. It shows the performance of four market indices over the past 7 years. Now, CTIX is not on the Nasdaq and it sure isn't on the Nasdaq Biotech index. In reality, these are Biotechs that have gotten to where we want CTIX to be some day. But what is interesting to me is the performance of the biotechs to the other market indices in both good and bad markets. On the left side the indices are starting from roughly the same position relative to one another. The decline during 2007-9 for the other 3 indices is much more pronounced. Likewise, the gain after the decline is much more vigorousfor the biotech index(more than double in some cases).
I think this bolsters the argument that biotechs are catalyst driven and we need not fear the Hindenburg or other market declines as much as one might think unless you think we are due for a decline worse than 2007-2009.
The caveat we need to remember is that we are dealing with the catalysts relating to one stock, not the cumulative ones that drive the biotech index. I have seen data showing that biotechs have a very high standard deviation when measuring volatility as compared to stocks from many other sectors. So it really comes down to picking one where the catalysts deliver. If the catalysts don't come through you probably are going to get clobbered.
In CTIX I think we have one that is going to deliver. Therefore I am not as worried about the market per se.
NASDAQ Composite (COMP) S&P 500 (SPX) NASDAQ Biotechnology (NBI) DJIA (.INDU)
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaqbiotech_activity.stm#ixzz2cLecKAwR
Might be the same person listed on the poster for ASCO. But I don't think that would be the delay as he died in Dec. 2012. Seems the lab would be functioning well by now and that would have been known for some time.
The other possibility mentioned by Karin is that an update may come before the conference. So something must be cooking that will make us happy or why mention that at all?
I agree with this. As I see it the stock is catalyst driven, not market driven.
BK - wasn't it 23 of 24?
Karin that sounds great to me. I am almost to the position I originally set for myself and now I am going to make sure that is the case before the conference! Thanks for the news.
Does anyone remember if there was anything new revealed at the last R&R conference?
Do you think Leo wants to withhold positive info? I'm with BK on this but I suppose you will do what you think is right.
BK - Is this what you are referring to? It refers to DF but really the relationship between Harvard and DF is such that they often are mentioned in the same breath. This is from Karin CA'a interview with Leo in March:
: Cellceutix has identified p21 as a biomarker as a barometer of p53 expression for the clinical trial. Seeing activity of p53 without toxic side effects could be the Holy Grail for developing a new cancer treatment. When do you expect results from testing of the p21 biomarker? What are your expectations?
A: We are anticipating the tests to be run in mid-March and the results to follow shortly thereafter. Honestly, we were extremely pleased that the Dana-Farber laboratory is running these tests so early in the trial. It is a "no lose" situation for us as we did not anticipate biomarker testing, nor did we expect to see any activity, at this early stage and low dosing levels. If p21 activity is shown, we think that we have hit a home run, but if activity is not demonstrated, we will not be the least bit disappointed at this juncture in the trial. We will simply then wait for the testing at higher doses as we expected, where we are very optimistic that we will see p21 expression at that time.
Dr. J - Oh that is someone else. Dr. Jerry - we all would love to see the patent issued but don't hold your breath. That is a ways down the road. Maybe a year and a half.
I have been watching "Breaking Bad" and wondering if that is the solution to my need to accumulate more.
BioHedge - Thanks for posting this. It is a great article and I forwarded it to a friend of mine diagnosed with lung cancer. What I found interesting is that the approach described is targeting the several mutations of lung cancer as opposed to K where potentially any mutation might be "fixed" either through apoptosis or correction of the error. The early work with K indicates it was perhaps most effective with lung cancer, which is very encouraging as it has been a largely intractable disease. Another aspect that is encouraging about K is in regards to the part of the article describing how some of the tumors work around the new targeted drug and come back with a vengeance. If the MOA of K works as described, that will not happen as the aberrant tumor cell will be dead or restored to its original benign function. So while the drugs described in the article sound great and indicate a huge step forward, I think K has a real chance to go beyond even what they offer. And that is saying something!
Thanks, Whoops. I guess I mixed that up. Aren't there studies that we aren't paying for? Is it MD Anderson?
gov - If your source on the MOA is right that is good information to know. I will factor that into my expectations for new info on P21. Thanks.
Uplisting is just great. But having just gone through the ONVO uplist, it will bring a whole new group to this board. Shorts follow stocks that uplist as they are looking for a pop they can play as a stock over extends. They are an interesting group to say the least. Maybe interesting isn't the right word with the things they post.
Another thing I was thinking about - Dr. M's comments hint at a little frustration with Harvard getting around to looking at P21. Makes me wonder if the fact that CTIX is not paying for the trial puts us at the end of the line as compared to Pharma companies that paid. Money does talk.
Has anyone looked at the beta on this stock? Yahoo has it as .02. Can that be right? Volatility that is only 2% that of the stock market. If right I suspect that is due to the high inside ownership, small float and those of us who are holding long and strong. It will change with catalysts but Leo and Dr. M own so much that it probably will not get as crazy as many stocks do. That is one of the lowest betas I have ever seen.
That is an interesting way to look at it. Subtle but I think you may be right. At least we know there isn't any DLT as of yet.
Here is my take: nothing much revealed on K, other than P21 not demonstrated yet for what seems like slowness at the lab. Would have liked P21 but no bad news. It seems the P trial has taken a little longer than anticipated to get off the ground but looks good to go now. Again no bad news. Readying to uplist is great news and will really propel the stock as it will pull in more investors and that will include institutional investors. Get any more you want now. When uplist news gets out to enough people there might be a feeding frenzy!
I know one thing. I could write an article that would scare Biocon big time. It would be about Prurisol.
Remember it said 1% to 2% of the population suffering from the disease. Not too wide an application. I think P will do better.
Me neither and I consider it better than even too. At some level just about everything in life is a gamble. But this has a much better vibe.
Hi gov, I think what you are referring to came from Progressive's interview with Leo. The quote is..."Once the patent is published people will have a better understanding of our thought process in the development of Prurisol and how we accomplished making the new compound." So if this is the reference you are talking about it seems that it is not strategic in the sense of business planning as much as the developmental process that evolved from the use of an existing molecule.
Youssef - It is gambling in the sense of an uncertain outcome. But it is so much better than gambling in the sense of what you do in a casino. Here's why: About the best bet you can get in a casino is at the craps table. I have read articles in the newspaper where someone walks into a casino and gets special permission to place a bet of $1 million on a single roll of the dice at the Craps table. The bet is placed on the Pass or No Pass line. It is one of the very best even bets in the house. The odds are something like 51.4 to 48.6 in favor of the house. So that person is going to have close to a 50% chance of walking out the door with $0 or with $2 million. The article I read the person walked out with $2 million. Lucky guy.
We have the same downside. Theoretically, the stock could go to $0 although if it did it would be slower that a roll of the dice and there would be plenty of chance to recoup part of the investment. But the big difference is the upside. There is no limit to that. In the example above the guy at the casino could double his money. We can double, triple or even do better with our investment.
You might say there are other bets at a casino that pay better than even. True, but the odds rapidly escalate in favor of the house. Also, with the investment in CTIX you can mitigate risk by adding or subtracting from your position as new info becomes available. In gambling too there are games where you get new information as the game proceeds like black jack. But unless your a pro at card counting the house edge in Black Jack is about 8%. And you can never take any of your existing bet back based on the new information.
What are the odds CTIX goes up? I think they are excellent but to be fair no one knows for sure. Most people on here are already on the side of a winning trade. Could it go down - sure but that is a bet I'll take (and have). Every step along the way the company has increased the odds of success. At the casino, the odds are always the same for a given situation. You will be very hard pressed to find anything in your favor no matter how long you stay there.
I have decided that the odds with CTIX are now in my favor. So I'm staying!!! A little different than the casino where throngs of people stay when they know the odds are against them and always will be.
Besides it is a lot more satisfying to place your money in a company that can potentially alleviate a lot of suffering in the world than to gamble in a casino and most likely leave most or all of it with those who own the casino. Not that I haven't ever done that!
I've added 3 times since Monday. Twice more today.
Karin, It says at the bottom that the last update was 7/20. Might that be the issue?
Great to hear that Magic! Sounds like you've got a great surgeon too. Best of luck.