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Re: A deleted message

Sunday, 08/18/2013 3:18:48 PM

Sunday, August 18, 2013 3:18:48 PM

Post# of 403103
I hope this link works. It shows the performance of four market indices over the past 7 years. Now, CTIX is not on the Nasdaq and it sure isn't on the Nasdaq Biotech index. In reality, these are Biotechs that have gotten to where we want CTIX to be some day. But what is interesting to me is the performance of the biotechs to the other market indices in both good and bad markets. On the left side the indices are starting from roughly the same position relative to one another. The decline during 2007-9 for the other 3 indices is much more pronounced. Likewise, the gain after the decline is much more vigorousfor the biotech index(more than double in some cases).

I think this bolsters the argument that biotechs are catalyst driven and we need not fear the Hindenburg or other market declines as much as one might think unless you think we are due for a decline worse than 2007-2009.

The caveat we need to remember is that we are dealing with the catalysts relating to one stock, not the cumulative ones that drive the biotech index. I have seen data showing that biotechs have a very high standard deviation when measuring volatility as compared to stocks from many other sectors. So it really comes down to picking one where the catalysts deliver. If the catalysts don't come through you probably are going to get clobbered.

In CTIX I think we have one that is going to deliver. Therefore I am not as worried about the market per se.











NASDAQ Composite (COMP) S&P 500 (SPX) NASDAQ Biotechnology (NBI) DJIA (.INDU)

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