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oil, Ukraine hitting Russian oil site has
had muted coverage...
https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/7/9/videos-show-fires-at-russian-oil-facilities-after-drone-attack
If you don't know, it won't affect
oil pricing...
So we watch...LJ
A much bigger threat from Beryl was
dodged...
Beryl injested dry air for almost
two days before landfall...
Beryl intensity increase from tropical
storm to hurricane only had about
six to eight hours to get there...
Conditions are very hot all thru Atlantic
and Gulf of Mexico and only increasing
in the summer months...
How many flood water totalled vehicles
in Texas will be replaced with EVs?...
Utility crews working to repair Severely
hit areas will generally work fifteen hour
days and often have to stage from tent
camps that they set up...earning their keep...
So we watch...LJ
Taiwan only has China and earthquakes to
watch out for everyday...
https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-safety-warning-af2bb9e74087acfef1f6c8677326d6d6
https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/E/index.html
The increase and ongoing seismic activity
in Taiwan in 2024 may be bigger threat...
Hard to imagine so much U.S. wealth being
built up in the Ai bubble now with the daily
things to watch for in Taiwan...
And Europe is short on materials that
they may need to get from China to keep
making war support items...
So we watch...LJ
TSLA is like a dinosaur looking for food
to try to survive now...
Joe Biden passed tariffs on China EVs
as a political move to look tough on
China before going against Trump...
And it should lower grazing area for TSLA
in China for rest of the year...
3rd quarter trend should continue down
from 2nd and 1st quarter in China in 2024...
https://img.cnevpost.com/2024/07/08165106/2024070808510637.jpg
https://cnevpost.com/2024/07/08/tesla-sales-in-china-jun-2024/
Big fluffly p/e suggesting sale growth has
U.S. competition to eat up any hopes of
increasing sales in U.S....
TSLA may not be as over priced as
ARM looks now, but it looks up there...
Peon thesis, of course...
Time will reveal the answer...
AAPL is a homegrown monopoly of
higher breed than TSLA, IMO...
So we watch...LJ
Stock market and Nasdaq tech casino are different
things in 2024...
The gambling atmosphere in the big
tech pumps is not related to evaluating
stocks by any measure...
When the tech values crash it may help
lower the unreal values in Undeveloped
property being too high also...
Tech has come up with popup ads that
Microsoft, Google, and Avira can't even
prevent now...
Tech sucks really big time because of
that happening...
Yahoo finance feeds are glitchy everyday
in the new fantasy land too...which is more
likely a sign of belt tightening in tech spending
than more on Ai as being spinned big now...
So we watch...LJ
Me thinks big daddy draws tech profits
this week...
so a plummet in TSLA and ARM from
excess pricing could happen...
Money seems more likely to flow into
AMZN ahead of Prime Day Event...
very quiet about it so far...
Q rollover could roll from fantasy future
to real time event following...
Peon thesis only, of course...
So we watch...LJ
SQQQ may be ripe and ready for picking...
added a different tech put today...
not as bloated as ARM or TSLA though...
underwater like Houston on those ARM
and TSLA puts right now...ruff day there
for EV charging...
So we watch...LJ
blowing rain, a live feed video link
as long as it lasts...
Yes sir, if you eat breakfast in Beaumont,
you will be ready to each lunch
by the time you drive to San Antonio...
at 70 mph and not 100mph,,,
to put the storm size in perspective...
weather is local...
inland after coast generally has few
trees along the path, other than at
homesteads and small towns...
https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/beryl_realvue_pm_070724.png?w=632
So we watch...LJ
Ways to waste energy on invented digital betting
schemes is big biz...
https://ih.advfn.com/market-news/article/7844/btc-falls-amid-market-pressure-bittensor-suspends-operations-consensys-enhances-metamask-security
Big doesn't represent any underlying asset
valuation to determine betting prices...
Plenty of money to lose circulating now...
Keeping the invention train of betting
schemes rolling is the task ahead to
prevent derailing ...
How much energy is wasted daily to track,
record, and spread info on the schemes?...
CO2 emissions are likely tracked more
than energy used to drive the digital
betting schemes invented to date...
Countries can seize all digital assets of
citizens and dump them on the market
at anytime if they have ruled digital assets
are illegal in their country...
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/041515/countries-where-bitcoin-legal-illegal.asp#:~:text=Despite%20its%20use%20for%20buying,is%20illegal%20to%20use%20Bitcoin.
Nothing says that wars have to be
fought with live ammo from weapons...
Probably won't find that in promotional
info on a digital betting scheme risk...
So we watch...LJ
TSLA, hate to beat on a tired mule,
but it seems that the downturn in
China sales may only be starting...
Tesla faces some of its toughest competition in
China, where the company’s sales have declined
as competitors roll out lower-priced EV models.
In June, Tesla’s sales in China dropped 24%
compared with last year, while the broader
market reported a bump in deliveries amid
a rush of discounts and government subsidies
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/teslas-second-quarter-vehicle-deliveries-fell-4-8-7dea363d?st=r2zupl0i2qw5kve&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
And bringing high priced trucks to market
if a slow down in economy starts may
not right the sale's down trend...
Could be a pump up to off load more at
higher price than better days ahead now...
So we watch...LJ
.
cattle call, ring-ring, taking your advice
on adding some beef production...
Beryl will be no help to the worst
drought areas of west Texas...
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX
Ordered a couple of bred cows for
delivery on Sunday...
Been putting it off in the heat...
So we watch...LJ
That .1% return for the week on cash
helped some of us out...
SMCI is one of the only low forward
p/e companies in the tech AI frenzy...
because it is on hard side of tech which
you gotta have to deploy the tech...
and if they don't give guidance again soon,
there might be another price deal, weee...
Would have never thought that BOIL would
have crimped your performance in the
Ongoing Heat Wave...
Either the market or us peons don't know
what we are doing...
So we watch...LJ
Germany seized 50,000 betcoin in a recent bust...
They didn't pat them down after
the arrest and take them...
They used similar tracking tech to
access the betcoin account as they did
to monitor them before arrest...
Gold, silver, and diamonds are slowly
becoming the go to versus betcoin for
illicit transfers again...
Govt's will no longer have a need to
prop or pump up betcoin to get illicit
users to access the service...
Always a game behind the game...
In a pyramid scheme, the last one on
top is potential biggest loser...
So we watch...LJ
TSLA and AAPL are two biggies China
could hit with export levys to counter
U.S. tariffs added on China imports...
Institutions have pumped up both
a lot recently after giving retail a hard
shake out earlier in year,
which left pump up now with less selling
resistance to hold them back...
Here is article link which details possible
8 billion worth of betcoin needing to be
liquidated by creditors, who aren't likely
in biz to hold them...
Germany isn't in biz to hold 50,000 betcoins...
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/27233900/s-p-500-and-nasdaq-100-post-record-highs-on-rate-cut-expectations
betcoin has bad news known so may be
nearing safer than ARM,TSLA, and AAPL
big pump ups recently...
peon guess only on that...
Wouldn't buy any of them with your money
right now though...
NDX control traders make it a lot easier
to spot what to avoid than what to buy...
Lumber hasn't responded to Beryl possibly
increasing demand for it...A lot of land owners
sold timber during the price heyday a few
years back and it will take years for new
growth to replace that sale volume increase...
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Gold is still the shiny safe haven that
will get more in play as betcoin luster
fades over time...
So we watch...LJ
TSLA...EV...are you sure folks aren't
keeping their EVs indoors to keep
the batteries cooler now?...
Ha, or did they risk driving south?...
Northwest will be testing EV battery
safety in heat in real time now...
Out there where they may have labs
coming up with new ways to abuse
energy use more everyday...
So we watch...LJ
Beryl, new 40 mile shift to east in
the latest update,
which potentially increases intensity...
after about 100 mile shift to east
in the earlier track...
European model has made about 200
mile flip flop to east over last 24 hours...
Not surprising because I never bot into
the high steering being very strong...
A cold front easily pushed rain into Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama on Friday and will
stay on Saturday also as it stalls...
U.S. 7% to 25% inflation on China imports
coming in to use pretty often...
EVs sold in small amounts were likely
thrown in to keep attention off the much
bigger import used items,,,
solar, aluminum, steel, etc...
https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2024/05/us-announces-new-tariffs
Europe also added 17% to 37% inflation
on EVs imported there...TSLA in a stall mode
doesn't get them exempted on fair field...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy99z53qypko
China will reply to this trade war tactic...
China could pass export levy to push
up rare earth mineral prices by 20 fold
and double price of solar exports to markets
that are adding new tariffs on their exports...
A FED asleep at the switch could miss all
this new inflation brewing and not raise rates
more to get ahead of it...
When Obama passed tariff on China tires,
U.S. tire companies soon almost doubled
their prices after it happened,
Was a tire shopper even back then, so
easily got caught by the higher prices...
China having lower input costs by having
more raw materials and newer automation
in manufacturing isn't their fault,
and we will pay more for tariff actions...
So we watch...LJ
Probably alert status for some Gulf well platforms
now if needed to shut down and
evacuate by Sunday...
Pretty big swing right for the Beryl
forecast cone in last 24 hours...
Another swing of same amount in 24 hours
would bring much more of Gulf in play...
TSLA selling at 100 years of future earnings
to reach current value is really cheap
compared to ARM selling at around
225 years of future earnings,
if ARM keeps making 200 million/quarter...
A future with no guarantees...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARM/key-statistics/
ARM pricing reflects the utter Casino
pricing atmosphere of Ai...
And some druggies must have picked it
to add it to the Nasdaq 100...
A lot of folks watching the Ai pump will have
no sympathy when their prices crash...
Like, like, they think folks need it,
when the world is on tech overload already...
It seems like they are smoking some good
chit after their pump and dump of weed
stocks for a few years...
Their pump and dumps get bigger...
TSLA no longer gets free ride Gov't tax
rebates to stay afloat since other companies
are now selling more EVs...
TSLA has likely seen it's best days...
my wag is cash flow problems ahead...
So we watch...LJ
Higher beef prices have helped cattlemen and
cattle ladies sell cull cattle off and
that improves herds and productivity...
But will also tighten available meat supply
more as this year progresses...
But it isn't inflation, it is market pricing
adapting to change, don't ya know?...
Glad to see some swollen rivers now that
feed the Mississippi river which could help
brings it's water levels back up...
Which has hampered river shipping...
Ai couldn't help that plight...
So we watch...LJ
Nasdaq index is due a correction next week...
It is very pricy again...
So we watch...LJ
ARM has surged past over priced to one
of the most over priced in market...
May be price action to pyramid
gains off options in play...
What goes up will come down...
Betcoin will be zero and EVs useless
wherever the power goes out in Texas
early next week...Ai will SLEEP...
Still have to keep reality in mind when
looking at nutty market pricing now...
So we watch...LJ
We are clicking 'thumbs up' on your post
in case it earns a discount...
Excellent job...
So we watch...LJ
Would take the under 120 for Vegas Friday...
Doubt that will make anyone there
feel any better about that heat...
So we watch...LJ
SpaceX launch site near Brownsville, Texas is
in potential cone of Beryl...
Earlier today Beryl was just north of
earlier projected model runs...
Later in day Friday model runs should
add more clues on that...
Intensity of Beryl increased on Thursday
where it was not expected to increase...
Right of eye impacts from Beryl are now
forecast to be mostly for Texas and along
that southerly coastline...
Any deviation more north for a path could
increase any coastline impacts...
Any further deviation north also increases
potential intensity a lot because the coastal
water along Texas is so hot now...real hot...
Which is why the watching is done closely...
South Texas has rain due ahead...
So we watch...LJ
Odds are against it hitting 120 in Vegas
on Friday...
Are you gonna wager on it?...
Seems to be a sense of early relief on
Beryl possibly coming in at low end
strength and not harm Texas much...
Possibly still seems keyword on it...
So we watch...LJ
Billionaires are driving the heating of earth
with wasteful, gambling games...
100% get the effect of 1/2 of 1%
doing the wrong things...
betcoin, Ai, and wars are driving CO2
emission growth at the fastest pace
on record in the world now...
U.S. is trying to hide their emission
growth with the shell game of carbon
credits which reduce 000 CO2 levels...
Couple of bubbles to burst bare watching...
And a worldwide contraction could accompany
changes needed ahead when they happen...
So we watch...LJ
Let me be clear, betcoin will be eliminated
due to it's repetition creating unneeded
energy use, IF Energy Conservation ever
becomes a platform in the world...
It is definitely looking like the time it
was needed to start is Well behind us...
All the smoke and mirrors of promoting
Scammy carbon credit schemes is showing
up on thermometers now...
'Stupid does like stupid does' seems like the
game plan of folks in charge...
So we watch...LJ
speculation,,,CVX was weaker on Wednesday
than a lot of other oil/gas companies...
So, you have to ask yourself, why?...
Sometimes it can be a sign of smarter
buying in a company...
Green Canyon in Gulf of Mexico is new
field ready to bloom...
A trilogy of news items to review...
https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/us-gulf-of-mexico/article/14294694/chevrons-anchor-platform-en-route-to-green-canyon-area
https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/us-gulf-of-mexico/article/14297397/early-2024-startup-for-gom-winterfell-oil-project
https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/article/55093549/first-oil-flows-from-gom-winterfell-subsea-tieback
Know that you like those big uglies
that pay good dividends...
Paid 3.07 at the Shell this afternoon...
Only day that I've ever seen it busy...
Early afternoon and hotter than swell,
you would think it would be slow...
Still thinking that ERX will top $70 by
this Friday for some reason...which
would mean that VTLE or NOG aren't
anywhere near freeze areas now...
So we watch...LJ
Ai should increase rise of oil price faster
this summer...
Strong demand and limited production
already set up stable oil price...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Googles-Emissions-Have-Surged-Nearly-50-Due-to-AI-Energy-Demand.html
Ai pump so far show no signs of
waning anytime soon...
Rising fuel cost will keep pressure
on interest rates to stay up...
And higher borrowing costs for companies
below the mega monopoly size promoting
Ai will find it harder to buy the pump products,,,
so the Ai pump is likely to create it's own
down fall and then reduce that excess some...
Saving energy reduces carbon emissions,
Not the carbon credit scam being promoted...
So we watch...LJ
Oil sector lagged big inventory drop weekly...
Current week's demand may be biggest
ever across the country...auto+air...
Today was first time sitting at a full
gas station waiting for a pump in
as long as I can remember...
Filled up before prices rise...
Looked like many others were doing
the same thing...
Whew wee, folks were braving some heat
at the pumps this afternoon...
10 pm and still very, very hot outside...
Beryl will likely surprise with over performance
before reaching western land fall...
So we watch...LJ
ANVS was rock star on options for
the day...
wow, we shoulda had 10 of those $5
contracts for about .50 each...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ANVS240719C00005000/
so we watch...LJ
oh say can you see, new tarifs,,,
start around 07/03, oh me...
while U.S. is saluting flags on 4th...
China may be putting U.S. flags on
EVs sold by tsla and burning them,,,
in public forums spurred over there
to boost hometown buying loyalty...
Joe may have killed tsla with new EV
tarrifs on China EVS that weren't even
needed due to low sales here...
Don't under estimate China propaganda...
A tsla that starts reeling more will never
be expanding Ai chip spending...
Very skeptical on the tsla pump...
So we watch...LJ
Thank-you, let me take a wild guess
that it repeated as king of the day
on Tuesday...
thank-you for considering doing it...
so we watch...LJ
GRRR, ERX needs to top 70 on Friday
to signal an add on GRRR for me...
Shorts on GRRR are committed to
getting long term capital gains on
shares shorted in July, 2023...
GRRR is likely range bound into mid
July for that reason...
$60 or $70 minus 3 or 4 could be a lot
of gains for some shorts...
It ain't chump peon change...
Need a copy of options played during
July, 2023 to see how they were loaded...
So we watch...LJ
PED .91, small float could make it rain
if oil stocks have a move...
Small add on Tuesday,
holiday weeks can be slow...
still need some rain...
So we watch...LJ
Beryl still poses risk in western Gulf
of Mexico,
and how far up Texas coast is still
a wild card...
which depends on high pressure over
the southeast...
canes want to turn right due to their
natural internal motion...
https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL20_1280x720.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60
Beryl will have right side impacts in
the Gulf and up the Texas coast line,
how far up is not certain yet...
worst case, is for Beryl to guide right
up the Texas coast line more than
anyone might imagine now...
High pressure affects steering but has
little deflation to end of line impacts...
A cat 1 or 2 unwinding from much higher
status than cane just growing to a cat
2 status is generally more impactful in
the end result...
So we watch...LJ
ERX drop today hints Ai is scammy
and won't need much energy...
Everything else is bullish right now...
New efforts to limit dark fleet of Russia
started the trend...
Weather constraining shipping now doesn't
see demand slow from big users...
Odd tech pump week in market with so
many in 'time out' this week and not
watching things as much...
China ev sellers cleaning the big U.S.
ev pump hasn't changed over there...
China is due late in week to throw out
a potential rebuttal to U.S. ev tariff increase...
hell of a time for the big U.S. ev pump
during this week...hint...
wag, puts on tsla could turn golden and
I promise not to play any and jinx others...
So we watch...LJ
ERX, VTLE, NOG, only a handful of oil/gas
companies noticed the higher oil
price on Monday...
Folks have to watch when the coders
have a different script to execute...
So we watch...LJ