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As I start reviewing charts,
I don't think people realize how bad... How concerning it all is here.
Mortgage rates rising, inflation running....
This all could get real ugly, really quick.
The stimulus money pumped was about the only thing keeping money velocity high,
And now this chart shows concern is growing, as it should be.
JNK
And thank you...
Hopefully you now have access to make the changes you wanted...
All in all, it's no big deal to me, about "control" or modifications, etc...
Have a great day!
Just curious...
Exactly what are you trying to get accomplished by posts like this?
Do you think it is helping readers and spreading knowledge?
Do you think it's revealing signposts?
Spoiler alert...
It makes the vast majority of readers question your sanity and
Most of us just want you banned.
The sooner, the better.
The Boyz do like to cause pain....
Why exactly would investors want to be long here ?
And try to sleep well ??
Saw your email -
and just haven't had a chance to fully address it -
No problem making changes and you have been added.
I agree completely with
your info and I am also dealing with the same constraints....
First hand.
There is a "perfect storm" brewing, and it's getting worse.
Constraints on labor, constraints on getting the raw materials, keeping the labor force, constant inflation on expenses, COGS, etc....
Definitely a "workers market". And again, that's only on the labor costs...
The gov't - or at least current admin - has done nothing but throw fuel on the fire. NOTHING in gov't and politics happens by accident.
They have taken the vehicle off the smooth pavement and onto a 4 wheel drive trail - and it's getting worse.
Money and commerce...
Warm water ports, warm water, deep water ports on the Black Sea...
Access to the Mediterranean
Same as it ever was, and
The poor people suffer.
I won't even go into who is the maniacs.
Better song to fit what is coming...
A few posts ago, I put up the Elliott wave pattern and how
we're at point B and ready for another leg down...
The IWM puts -
The 2/18 205's here at only the $6 area -
If IWM can climb back up another 40 cents.....
That is a good buy.
Basically getting 2 weeks for it to fall back a couple of bucks, which we know it will do, with the wide ranges and again....
The market just has no "enthusiasm" here... No confidence.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=
Info added 10 minutes later....
And AGAIN...
it's all swirling downward like a turd in a toilet -
No one should be thinking this is a bull scenerio.
Bulls will have opportunity to
grab control... And they'll fail.
Watching to go back into the
At the money puts, 2 or 3 weeks out...
This may be a week of balancing, but we could also easily see the
SPY back at 433.
Be careful out there...
Check this textbook pattern and compare it to where
we're currently at on the 2 year SPY, QQQ, sectors, etc...
High probability we are at point B here and now.
Elliott
We also may be sitting on top of the last shoulder here on a very ominous H&S....
Out for safety -
locked in the gains -
In at 7.24 and out at 11.60
Maybe you don't understand how options work....
In at 7.24
SPY Feb 18th 2022 458.000 puts
9.75 +1.35 (+16.07%)
that's the delayed info -
now they're up over 10 bucks.
Don't bother to respond.
It wouldn't be so bad and cringeworthy -
If you weren't soo condescending to others, while making your bad calls.
Very bad advice....
Again....
AMZN has been the laggard of the FAAMNG's -
and now big overhead resistance -
and still with the large p/e...
and when is the last time a stimulus check was sent?
The consumer confidence and sentiment has dried up -
Yes, it is a cash cow, but this one is setting itself up for another failure. It will be a small miracle it it can climb back into the 2021 range.
AMZN
Nice... and you know me -
and my "style". I have no problem -
actually feel "more comfortable" with a 33% portion buy,
based on a gut feeling, and then adding to it when
"the turn" actually happens.
I like buying in the money, and 2 - 3 weeks out, because I hate the time decay...
Once I fully add to a portion buy, the rest of the trade, (50 to 75%),
then I feel the clock has really "started ticking".
This past week, it seems we've been seeing a PP Team come in and provide strength, and I am wondering if and when they won't show up and no bounce will come.
Just wondering if the bounces are the boyz presenting a dog and pony show, to lure in longs, who have had their faith rekindled - and soon enough it'll be back to the big money 'tutes unloading and distributing.
We know the story and the plan - we've heard it from "experts".... about how ladders and steps have to be reconstructed and climbed, before being demolished.
Points of control and balance areas have to be created, before "progressing".
And just like that, FB at 250....
Shaving a YEAR of gains off their chart....
Whoa....
Bought puts here -
SPY Feb 18th 458's @ 7.24
This bounce is toast and we'll follow the chart of second half of 2018.
We're going to see a retest of the 430 area and then another leg down to the 400 area.
See how we had consolidated, then fell below.
2018
I agree with you here -
and when JPow started to taper and raise back in 2018,
it was IWM which started downward a few weeks before the SPY and QQQ
It's coming...
The bottom will be retested and further downside will come.
Look closely back in Sept of 2018
index comparison
Tomorrow is going to be brutal...
Tuesday bloody Tuesday.
Short term overbought in a medium term downward channel is NOT the place you want to be holding long positions.
IMHO, we won't even see much of any green turf tomorrow or a bounce to these midlines.
Perfect bounce to enter shorts
Buying IWM puts here....
before the close -
the 202's and this Fridays -
watching and waiting.
Classic example of the MM's causing as much pain as possible -
Before reversing to cause pain "the other way"...
Quick pinch of the shorts and now ready for the bottom to fall out, again...
PLENTY of Overhead resistance....
Everywhere, to keep everyone allergic to
the warm cozy, buy and hold blanket approach.
Don't mind the recent death cross here.
IWM
IWM rolling over here....
she's a foreshadowing item.
15 minute
Bought GDX calls a few hours ago...
Portion buy, the next week $29's
It still baffles me, with inflation rampant, that the pm's are stagnant.
Manipulation.
But even a recovery of today's loss will pay nicely.
I'm also expecting a Yen bounce.
Here's the best buys...
Soon enough, the metals and mining companies will launch.
Does anyone expect the dollar strength to continue?
It is inevitable, Mr. Anderson.
GDX
Just bought calls...
The GDX February 4th $29's. @ 1.19
JPow should just slap a 50 basis point boost today....
Then say, "Just doing my job"....
And walk away.
Today was a failure for Bulls...
A complete failure. Shorts covered, which reduced buying power...
JPow is stuck and screwed, knows he will need to follow Paul Volcker playbook of 45 years ago to have any hope of salvaging the economy... And even then, we're way past the measures Volcker had to implement.
If you're not familiar with what happened, better study about those downturns, rough times, and recessions.
And btw, Volcker was a hero for the measures that he took...
The expert economists all agree.
The fact that last week was an OE week did contribute to the downside...
Volume was huge on Friday and that may have been capitulation.
IMHO, Monday closes at 446 and Tuesday closes at 453.
Part of me is now
truly starting to think the SPY will never again see 470 -
at least not in 2022 and more...
UNLESS, JPow says they're turning on the printing presses again, full blast, and no rate increase in first half of 2022.
Readers should browse this link to the 2021 Review -
just to try and grasp how far out of whack we truly are.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167373308
There are plenty of us
Bears who have been here...
Just not posting everyday in caps.
From 2 weeks ago -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167415157
Here's a good weekend read for you.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167373308
IF this is your buy list....
I agree.
RIO
KL
SBSW
PSLV
IMPUY
Your posts are correct, but
you post too often, and make it a point to debate any posts coming back at you.....
Just fukk 'em if they can't see the signs.
New 52 week low on IWM....
Let them read that and see if they comprehend.
NEW 52 WEEK LOW ON IWM
That means EVERY buy and hold individual and fund for over the past year is now underwater on those zombies.
It could be a fast path for it down below 180.
And sometimes investors just don't realize how badly inflation can kill buyers and rallies -
When you step on the confidence and sentiment, when you kill the discretionary income of the masses - and then they pull up to the pump and cringe....
and people wonder why discretionary stocks are withering ?
Geeez..... It's still January - and those with gains are thinking -
Sell now and not get hit with cap gains tax for 16 months...
They are standing in the sell line with those in the red.
And Yellen wants to increase the IRS to chase tax dodgers -
To "fix the gap" between the overspending and lack of incoming gov't revenue ?? Instead of the f'n politicians cutting spending ??
What an upside down calamity.
last 40 minutes will be
DOWN hard....
she's at 464 here and now
Prime entry for puts here -
the Monday or Wed of next week, the at the money's
Possibilities...
USD
Here you go...
long article with a huge amount of info -
This is Part 2 of his YIR and part 1 covers alot of the market info.
It is insanity - what is going on these days.
I am linking you to it here because many of the boards you post on are no longer "free"
https://www.peakprosperity.com/2021-year-in-review-the-rise-of-centralized-healthcare/
Just to expand on thoughts....
and do some "comparative analysis".
We're looking here at the "basic nature of things".
You cannot mess with nature on a longer term basis.
Whether we're talking about the coming of winter / change of seasons -
Whether we're talking about econ cycles of expansion and contraction -
Whether we're talking about the tide receding and advancing.
The tide receded, helped by the Fed, in "fixing of the 2008 crash".
This stimulated businesses climbing in, a huge surge, that has carried to create the longest bull in history.
Soo many "opportunists" saw the dry ocean ground, and built great financial structures on it. Huge profits and gains.
The Fed helped by building sea walls, levy's, diverted the tide from coming back in - for soo long....
Even more through the covid....
The Fed helped to build these great financial structures on the dry ocean bed and much of their actions WAS A Mistake.
Now soo many are demanding it never ends -
and the Fed knows there's only soo much it can do...
The Fed knows the tide is coming back in and flooding these financial structures built - they know they cannot stop the world from turning, they know they cannot stop the gravitational pull of the moon....
They know they cannot keep expansion going forever.
People don't understand - they want to ignore the debt and how the low, low rates got us here.
You cannot have low tide forever...
You cannot have spring and summer forever.
The earth turns, the moon pulls, the tides rise -
The earth wobbles on its axis and creates seasons...
There's not a damn thing the Fed can do about where they have taken us.
We are soo far long overdue for contraction.
Forget about these BS MMT thoughts.
It may be a long, long, painful time - before a large number of people are back to having a pocketful of cash, instead of a pocketful of debt bills.
Looks in the rear view mirror, in order
to tell you the forward course, the existing channel,
the momentum, etc...
A five day chart clearly shows we had rolled over -
and seeing the techs, the small caps, even the mid caps....
all were confirming indicators.
Please stop going with all caps and all red, like we're all
rookies and oblivious to the world around us.
Thanks.
I agree -
and we've discussed it before -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167206940
so here and now, lets see the "bounce power"...
IMHO, it has to start with the tech stocks, with the FAAMNG + T
Follow the charts, be unbiased...
The "be long" narrative is crumbling.
The tech stocks are at their low point since before Thanksgiving.
The small caps are near their low points of over 8 months.
The be long or you're wrong story is now full of individuals in the red.
The only reason why the SPY is still in an upward channel is because of sectors which have always been deemed as defensive.
Little by little we continue to see the indicators weaken, like breadth, the advance decline, the ones above their 50 or 200... Sentiment...
The narrative has long BEEN true because of the Fed being on that side...
Because they have been there to provide an invisible hand... NOW that narrative is in question.
Along with many other narratives the criminals have pushed.
Yes, we watch the daily moves, but don't forget where we're at on the long term picture.
Go back to the 2021 year in review article I had linked in a previous post,
Check the long term valuations and other items...
The Fed is stuck here and they CANNOT maintain control of the bigger, macro, ugly developments that are getting stronger and stronger every day.
The Fed has done everything possible to help, with the stimulus, the rates, the printing press, with buying... But it now just isn't enough.
I could write for hours on a reply...
I believe we're NOT in a growth environment - to say the least...
And the powers that be must also know, since they know raising interest rates will crush everything - especially with all the debt.
And the ONLY way they have kept the vessel afloat is through stimulus and free handouts for 2 years now.
Everyone has become "jaded" as to the true picture going forward.
The consumer and companies will have no choice going forward -
we are destined for heavy contraction.
https://siblisresearch.com/data/russell-2000-pe-yield/
You want to buy a p/e of 95 ?!?
Soo many stats like to exclude companies which do not have positive earnings