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Some retail traders that were short are closing their positions today. Also seeing some more longs jump on. People are slowly starting to understand that Blackberry can at least survive and thrive as a niche company at a minimum.
The rollout of additional models is progressing well. Blackberry is delivering on their promise to deliver 6 models this year. They are making progress on establishing other lines of service business and whatever is need to keep building momentum.
Whether or not a short squeeze occurs any time soon, this stock is headed higher as the company continues to deliver. This is just starting to dawn on the naysayers.
JFF7
CNBC BUlls vs Bears
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000173462
JFF7
yup the date I got from a website was wrong.
Verizon - they said pre-orders will not ship until the 6th and the Q10 may not be in stores until 10th.
I guess they underestimated the Q10 they needed or the units were needed for the corporate demand who started preorders a couple of weeks ago in the US at some carriers.
JFF7
the company is not going to bleed it's cash with mass advertising in the US market. They have a very small piece of that market and the media has shown a great disdain for Blackberry. As well, if the carriers do not help out much, there is a whole lot less advertising that goes on.
Officially, the company is targeting people that are hyper-socially connected and true multi-taskers that need to get things done.
They are really campaigning at the corporate world and those with a high security requirement. I don't think the company is targeting the fashionable iPhone crowd or the give-it-to-me-free Android crowd. That is what will stop them from ever being or even trying to be number 1. But there is still a large enough market to make them very successful.
If they got a low cost partner they might be able to go after the mass market but certainly not before that.
Those are just my thoughts.
tmobile yesterday and Verizon today
JFF7
BLackberry - 650 million dollar profit?
http://www.thegadgetmasters.com/2013/06/03/why-blackberry-could-announce-over-650-million-in-net-profit-on-june-28-2013/
In the latest quarter, BlackBerry reported a net profit despite only selling the Z10 for one month in the UK and Canada. On June 28th, BlackBerry is reporting earnings for the latest quarter ending June 1st. With the Z10 being available for the entire quarter in dozens of countries, plus the Q10 available for one month in UK and Canada, BlackBerry should report a much higher profit than the $0.22 per share that it reported last quarter
BlackBerry Could Report $654 Million in Profit and EPS of $1.25
Screenshot of Excel spreadsheet sent in by a reader who works in financial services.
In fact, based on a financial model that a reader has sent in, BlackBerry could announce a net profit of US$654 million on June 28. This would be $1.25 in EPS (earnings per share). A conservative annualized EPS would be $5, so a price target at 10 times forward P/E would be $50.
This model assumes sales of 7.4 million BB 10 smartphones in the quarter, gross margin of 40% (same as last quarter) and service revenue that declines 11.2% from Q4. It has already accounted for the 50% increase in marketing spending.
The guidance that BlackBerry gave for the quarter was break-even (earnings of $0.00 per share). Thus, a profit of $1.25 per share would be a blow-out quarter. In fact, one buy-side analyst I talked to believes BlackBerry could issue a positive profit warning before June 28.
JFF7
Lenovo Seeks to Bring Chinese Success to U.S Smartphone Markets
By Christopher De - June 4, 2013
Christopher is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinion of the blogger and are not formally edited.
Lenovo Group (NASDAQOTH: LNVGY.PK), the second largest personal computer (PC) manufacturer, views the smartphone market as a new channel to drive growth in the company. Yang Yuanqing, Lenovo's Chairman and CEO, believes the PC market presents limited growth for the company's future success. Mr. Yuanqing wants his company to start selling its smartphones in the U.S market within a year.
Impressive Earnings
Lenovo boosted investor confidence with its latest earnings report. For its fiscal year ending March 31, the company reported a net profit of $126.9-million, up 90% year-over-year (YOY) from $66.8 million. Revenues ballooned to $7.8 billion, up 4.5% YOY. The company recorded a gross profit of $963 million, up 20% from last year Gross margins remain strong, sitting at 12.3%. Operating profit climbed to $169 million, up 67% YOY. Lenovo’s Board of Directors declared a final dividend of 1.81 cents for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2013.
China
Beijing-based Lenovo introduced its first smartphone to customers in China during the first fiscal quarter of 2010, following the acquisition of Lenovo Mobile to tap into the growing market for mobile Internet devices. Since then, Lenovo has competed well in China—the biggest smartphone market by volume—against its local rivals ZTE Corp., Coolpad and Huawei Technologies Co.
In the quarter ended March 31, Chinese consumers purchased 67.4 million smartphones. Samsung Electronics (NASDAQOTH: SSNLF) topped the Chinese smartphone market with its Galaxy line of smartphones in the mid-low price segments. According to research firm Strategy Analytics, Samsung sold 12.5 million smartphones and gained 18.5% market share, up 2.2% from the previous quarter. Lenovo sold 7.9 million smartphones and captured 11.7% market share. Samsung may continue to deliver strong volumes in China and global markets during the second quarter with its highly demanded flagship Galaxy S4 smartphone.
Huawei edged Lenovo with 12% market share, placing Lenovo as the second largest local smartphone vendor.
Smartphone Vendor Shipments (millions) Market Share %
Samsung 12.5 18.5%
Huawei 8.1 12%
Lenovo 7.9 11.7%
Coolpad 7.0 10.3%
ZTE 6.4 9.4%
Apple 6.1 9%
Source: Strategy Analytics
On May 16, Lenovo released the K900 in China—the company's latest smartphone. Lenovo wants to increase its market share in price segments where it lacks presence. The K900 retails for a suggested price of ¥3,299 (about $538). It targets the high-end smartphone market where customers search for different options other than Samsung's Galaxy S4 and Apple's iPhone 5. The K900 aims to fulfill that demand.
United States
Lenovo is not against the idea in taking its smartphone business outside of China. Since last year, the company has successfully entered and sold its smartphones in emerging markets, including Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Russia and Vietnam. Lenovo's main objective is to enter the European and U.S market to bolster brand recognition.
Mr. Yuanqing shows an interest in forming strategic alliances and acquisitions in North America to help the company compete in the U.S market. "If an acquisition helps us build capability, we would consider it," he told the Wall Street Journal in an interview.
Wong Wai Ming, Lenovo's CFO, shared the same outlook when interviewed at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. "We are looking at all opportunities—Research in Motion (now BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY)) and many others. We'll have no hesitation if the right opportunity comes along that could benefit us and shareholders," Mr. Ming said.
BlackBerry: Licensing Opportunity
According to a Bloomberg report, "Lenovo has spoken to BlackBerry and its bankers about various combinations or strategic ventures." Lenovo purchasing BlackBerry is highly unlikely due to Canadian and U.S regulations. Lenovo needs the approval from regulators because the transaction would exceed $344 million. Lenovo said its cash reserves of $3.1 billion gives the company an opportunity to pursue acquisitions, but BlackBerry may be out of the question.
BlackBerry has looked into licensing its BlackBerry 10 operating system for low-cost entry-level devices. A strategic alliance between Lenovo and BlackBerry would benefit both parties. BlackBerry would provide the sales channels needed for distribution and differentiate Lenovo's smartphones from the Android community with the BlackBerry 10 platform.
BlackBerry's presence in China is non-existent. Lenovo utilizing the BlackBerry 10 platform in China would increase BlackBerry awareness. It would form additional revenue streams, increase the number of subscribers and improve BlackBerry's market position in China.
In the PC market, Lenovo made a number of strategic investments to expand its PC business. It made five purchases in 2011, including the PC units of Tokyo-based NEC Corp. and German-based PC maker Medion AG. Last year, the company acquired Comércio de Componentes Electrônicos (CCE), a Brazilian manufacturer of PCs and consumer electronic products, for $147 million. With these acquisitions, the company has outperformed the declining PC market with impressive sales and margins, while stealing PC market share from Hewlett Packard and Dell.
Lenovo may need to purchase or form business relationships in North America to enter the U.S market. Lenovo aims to sell 50 million smartphones this fiscal year, but it needs to diversify its smartphones, increase its marketing budget and ramp up its distribution channel if it wants to lure customers away from Samsung and Apple.
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http://beta.fool.com/kingmali/2013/06/04/lenovo-seeks-the-us-smartphone-market/35907/#.Ua4JyEsl9cs.twitter
Im more a fundamentals person but use technicals for trading around my core position. I'm real positive on Blackberry. They are on much more solid ground now but they have to keep moving or they will lose their chance. NOK is half a year ahead of them with getting lots of models out and are starting to gain traction as people tire of the iPhone that has not changed much and security on Android becomes more of a known problem. Blackberry may not crack the top three but I don't think it has to be a success.
Good luck with your other investments.
JFF7
Traders are starting to like BBRY. Good chatter on twitter.
JFF7
I wanna make lots of money on this one. Just need patience and monitor progress Heins and company are making. So far they are doing a great job. But timing is very important. they have no window to spare. If successful....25 dollars...if partner with someone....35
dollars.
it can all happen in a year ...market needs to see sales figures and bottomline though.
JFF7
I doubt it Jal, he was just using that as a hypothetical example.
JFF7
Lenovo in preliminary talks with someone for a joint venture in the smartphone business. Blackberry? Rumor that Heins is on Bloomberg tomorrow.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-lenovo-says-talks-smartphone-005211612.html
HONG KONG (Reuters) - China's Lenovo Group Ltd, the world's No.2 PC maker by shipments, said on Tuesday it was in preliminary talks with an unidentified party on a potential smartphone business joint venture. It gave no further details.
Japanese media have reported that Lenovo, just shy of overtaking Hewlett-Packard Co as the top global PC maker, would set up a joint venture with Japan's NEC Corp to focus on smartphone manufacturing and distribution.
NEC was in talks with Lenovo, already a joint venture partner in PCs and tablets, early this year on the sale of its mobile unit, according to media reports and a source familiar with the discussions.
An NEC spokesman declined to comment on the possibility of a joint venture but acknowledged the troubles that unit is facing.
"Our mobile phone business is in a difficult state and we acknowledge that we need to decide on a direction for the business. For that, we are considering various opportunities and that stance up until now has not changed."
Lenovo has spent heavily over the past few years to strengthen its PC business, with purchases such as Brazilian electronics maker CCE last year, Germany's Medion in 2011 and IBM's PC business in 2005.
It is also conducting a roadshow for a U.S.-dollar-denominated notes issue on Tuesday, although it has given no details.
"The board would like to inform the shareholders of the company and potential investors that the company is in preliminary negotiations with a party in connection with a potential joint venture transaction," Lenovo said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange.
With demand booming for mobile computing gadgets, Lenovo has been aggressively pushing out smartphones and tablet PCs and is now the second largest smartphone maker in its home market in China.
Apart from NEC's mobile's mobile phone business, Lenovo has been rumored in the market over the past year to be on the hunt for other acquisition targets, including IBM Corp's low-end server business, Nokia Oyj and blackberry maker Research In Motion.
"Lenovo lacks expertise in its enterprise and smartphone businesses, so I wouldn't be surprised if it is making acquisitions in these areas to consolidate its position," said Vincent Chen, a PC analyst at Yuanta Research.
Lenovo's announcement came before the Hong Kong market opened. Its shares rose nearly 4 percent in early trade to their highest in more than two months, compared with a flat benchmark Hang Seng Index. NEC's Tokyo shares fell 1.3 percent compared with the Tokyo benchmark Nikkei average's 0.4 percent rise.
For Lenovo's statement on the Hong Kong stock exchange please click http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2013/0604/LTN20130604035.pdf
(Reporting By Lee Chyen Yee, Umesh Desai, Anne Marie Roantree and Twinnie Siu; Editing by Paul Tait and Edmund Klamann)
Reading the twitter stock chatter on BBRY it is apparent that the technical traders regard today as a turning point. Some of them bought today and others are considering it.
JFF7
Options Market Outlook: 1 month, 3 months and 6 months out are all bullish.
JFF7
"Are there any business writers we can trust out there who aren't getting paid to push a stock down?"
there are also the ones paid to push a stock up!
Sorry, couldn't help myself. Jaded humor.
JFF7
how accurate is that shorting report. ?
The historical short chart on that page shows there was no short sales the whole month of May and yet the short interest increased 6 million last short report from Nasdaq.
JFF7
TP Strategic Partners "Big covering action happening. We are seeing institutions outbuying retail 3 to 1"
JFF7
at this point is is a technical breakdown achieved by the shorts. Now technical traders are helping out and the weak hands.
It's a tough one to handle.
It's not doing this sell-off on fundamentals.
JFF7
I'm convinced. The coincidences are just way too many.
JFF7
"I tried commodities trading about fifty years ago and almost had two box cars of fresh eggs delivered to my house!! " Good one, my laugh for the day.
I hold similar view on other stocks that are investments. Willing to go into thinly traded stocks with over-sized positions for multiple year investments. But again, I have to see an annual return or my position will be much smaller or I'll be completely out. I like PTQ's potential but I have a limited position of a few hundred thousand because the only return I am getting is by trading it (so far). If the world goes sideways unexpectedly, I have to be able to get out with most of my carcass intact.
As well I think PTQ is much more to you than to me. For you it is an investment in your country and in your family's future. I don't have those emotional attachments in PTQ. I also don't have the on-the-ground feel for the company that you have by your proximity to the company and your ties with people knowledgeable about the country on a first hand basis.
And good luck to you as well.
JFF7
"For this last fiscal year GDXJ is down 42% and Petaquilla is down 21%. "
But my objective is to make money year over year, not lose the least amount of money.
Thank goodness for trading opportunities in PTQ like the Inmet attempted takeover provided.
JFF7
If you watch the Twitter stock chat, it looks like a lot of the longs are buying but also heavily playing the options.
In effect they are using the volatility to accumulate at low prices as long as possible and make a lot of short term money by trading options at the highs and lows of the volatility cycle.
Very interesting games being played. One thing you can count on is that these games are being played so they can make money (or not lose it if they are only shorting).
Interesting times ahead.
JFF7
"Interesting basically what he is accusing Blackberry of doing is "channel stuffing"..."
yes he is saying they are only selling 500.000 per month but building 1.5 - 2 million a month. Thats a lot of channel stuffing. The mattresses have to be full.
Oh wait, wasn't BBRY accused of shoring the stores inventory in order to make it look like there was sellouts?
Stuffing channels and short store inventories at the same time.
That's a neat trick.
JFF7
PacificCrest is a market maker for BBRY.
JFF7
the shorts made a big effort yesterday to break support but couldn't follow through today. Bouncing off support today only strengthens the longs case. Not saying they are giving up but time is not their friend.
Next week Q10 hits the US.
Next month 10.2 SDK hits beta release so the developers will be very happy. When developers are happy, I am happy because those are the guys we need to like the platform and make great new apps for it. 10.2 includes Jelly Bean Android environment so lots of high profile Android apps can be ported over with full functionality. A big plus but some app owners are now realizing BB10 s here to stay and are abandoning their Android versions of their apps for BB10 and are noe developing native versions so they can really use the BB10 platform to provide an engaging user experience.
Q5 hits July
BBM cross platform hits Aug
10.2 SDK Gold hits August
new Phablet hits in late fall with 10.2 enhanced apps.
Blackberry is firing on all cylinders.
JFF7
MMT.v
The company will likely continue paying the dividend out of what they are paid of the nominated oil. It doesn't put them in a good position for a few months while they catch up but they are committed to paying the divy continuously.
JMO,
JFF7
I think the short position is much larger now than when the Z10 launched. It is a lot tougher and more expensive (borrowing costs) to get hold of shares to short now.
No doubt the media and analysts in the US don't give Blackberry much credit but they are getting a lot more now than they did 6 months ago. The trend is in the right direction on fundamentals and company momentum.
As long as they keep listening to their clients and carriers and developers, and making changes that are needed in a timely manner, I think that momentum will continue despite anything the shorts / analysts / media can do. That is really the only way to beat them, the company has to perform and deliver like they have been doing the first 5 months of this year.
JFF7
yes Jal,
I don't think they went as far as ruling out any financing . Maybe they don't know for sure if they need it or not now or in the future.
Anyways, this news release is a very good thing because shows that FQ is honoring previous agreements PTQ had in principle (or otherwise) with Inmet and goes a long way to establishing a friendly mutually prosperous relationship with their rather large neighbor.
The aggregate agreement means they establish a very profitable income stream. The forgiving royalties immediately improves the balance sheet.
Since POG is way down now, it does not make financial sense to buy out the gold and precious deals they had with Deutsche bank.
If you have eliminated most of the need for the loan and have established an income stream and improved your balance sheet, it seems to me that there is little to no need for a loan at this time. At worse a vastly reduced size of loan.
I can live with that and rejoice in the progress made. I would think the market will realize the significance of this and pop even better if the POG ever heads back up.
JFF7
Finally some cooperation among all the parties.
Now they learn that everyone is better off when they all walk away from a deal with something they need rather than everything they wanted.
JFF7
Shorts have more to worry about than just the fundamental performance of this company that could force a short squeeze.
Investment money has been forced out of the housing markets and now the bond markets and it needs a place to go for higher yields. That money is now coming into the stock markets. The Japanese markets is up 45% and the US markets are up a lot as well. It will only increase as a stock market bubble is created.
Stocks that have been heavily shorted are now been targeted by that speculative money and many are experiencing short squeezes causing the shorts much pain. It's only a matter of time before that money comes a calling to Blackberry. As soon as we see the first 10-15% increase in the share price in a short time period, a lot of that fresh capital will flow into Blackberry stock and then the real pain begins.
JFF7
the shorts are losing control. Cost to borrow for shorting are going up quickly. Shares are being recalled for the AGM voting. Shares available for shorting are getting very hard to find and are getting expensive to borrow.
JFF7
this is a great move that if anything should have been done sooner. If the press don't understand it that is too bad although I do understand it is hard from Blackberry enthusiasts to see this happening.
JFF7
LOL an iPhone nation....hasn't anyone told Apple that Android won the world a long time ago. In the fall, BB10 platform will be running Android version 4.2.2 which will be more up to date than a lot of Android phones. Android ports will run as smoothly on BB10 as they do on an Android phone.
However, only 20% of BB10 apps are Android ports so the developers are supporting the BB10 native development efforts because users have indicated they enjoy the more engaging interaction of native apps.
The smartphone is becoming a commodity and few handset makers are making them profitably. The future is in software and services. Blackberry knows this and is well positioned to be there.
JFF7
well said Badge.
JFF7
Bernstein also said it was a very dangerous stock to short since it could easily rise to 20-25 dollar per share. Basically Bernstein is undecided as to whether BBRY is going to 10 dollars or 25 dollars.
I am not sure why he doesn't see any catalysts over the next 6 months. I see a ton of catalysts over the next 6 months.
- Q10 release in US
- BES 10 rollout
- Q5 release
- BBM going cross platform
- Earnings results for Q1 and Q2
He does't even think the earnings results at the end of June are significant. Since when are earnings results not significant to an analyst?
JFF7
There was bound to be some selling based on buy the rumor sell the news. Shorts took advantage of that to try and drive the share price down. Stop losses (why do people continue to play into the hands of the shorts) helped their cause as well.
But once those traders are out and the stop losses are finished, the shorts will be on their own. A bounce is coming. There was too much positive news. The longs will continue their buying.
Blackberry is just doing all the right things that they have to to succeed. Great management team. I am really impressed with Frank B. and where he has taken them in marketing efforts.
Buy the dips ! I did.
JFF7
It's just getting better and better
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/05/09/bbry-scotia-sees-bes-10-upside-larger-future-in-m2m-networks/
Short interest for April 30 th is up about 600,000 but the days to cover is now over 6 days. Anything over 5 days is considered high risk of short squeeze.
BB Live event next week will kick up some interest.
BES10 and licensing of Andoid / iPhones is going to be veryy very profitable over time.
Corporate rollouts have started. More and more stories of gov'ts and companies purchasing BB10 phones are rolling in.
Q10 to rollout in US in a few weeks.
R10 to rollout this summer.
and on and on and on.........
MMT.v
Its also through a more populated area and shorter so maybe less chances to bunker so anonymously.
JFF7
just a bunch of rumours...from seeking alpha....
BlackBerry (BBRY +2%) spikes higher on rumors Carl Icahn has bought a stake in the company. H-P was the beneficiary of such rumors a couple weeks ago. Earlier today, Scotia Capital argued a strategic partner such as IBM (once reported to be interested in BBRY's network operations centers) is likely to buy the company