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Gold stocks should recover from Friday's crash since Monday gold trading in Asia has already regained better than 3 dollars of Friday's last-minute plunge. With the richest mine in the world (production cost of $76 per ounce compared to typical range of $200 to $230) Goldcorp should benefit from ongoing rise of gold.
Here's I-Hub Goldcorp board with links to gold in general:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1997
Caradoc
Bodes well for gold, gold shares
Pasted from the Goldcorp board,
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1997
here's GAO's Comptroller General on US debt:
http://www.respondanet.com/english/publications/Gaowalker.pdf
Very little press coverage of this speech, especially considering that it was delivered to the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. by David Walker, the nation's Comptroller General.
Snippet #1:
...while we are starting off in a financial hole we don't really have a very
good picture of how deep it is. Specifically, there are a number of very significant
items that are not currently included as liabilities in the federal government's
financial statements; for example, several trillion dollars in non-marketable
government securities in so-called "Trust Funds." In the case of the Social Security
and Medicare Trust Funds, the federal government took in taxpayer money, spent it
on other items and replaced it with an IOU. Given this fact, why aren't the amounts
attributed to such activities shown as a "liability" of the U.S. Government? At the
present time, they are not! Does this make sense, especially when the government
continues to tell Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries that they can count on
the bonds in these "Trust Funds"? Is the federal government trying to have its cake
and eat it too?
The current U.S government liability figures also do not adequately consider veterans'
health care benefit costs provided through the Department of Veteran's Affairs nor do
they include the difference between future promised and funded benefits in
connection with the Social Security and Medicare programs. These additional
amounts total tens of trillions of dollars in discounted present value terms. Stated
differently, they are likely to exceed $100,000 in additional burden for every man,
woman and child in America today, and these amounts are growing every day.
Snippet #2:
With regard to existing policies and programs, it is time to restructure existing
entitlement programs to make them secure, sustainable and aligned with 21st
Century economic, demographic and other realities.
So, in addition to Congressman Ron Paul and Anthony Principi -- secretary of Veterans Affairs -- the federal government has a third person who will stand up on his hind legs and speak the truth. The Comp Gen's prescriptions amount to a bitter pill of strong medicine. Restructuring social security, for example, to acknowledge 21st century demographic realities would mean planning for a greater percentage of recipients living into their 80s and 90s (spread that money thinner!) and taking into account that most 62 and 65 year olds are still potentially productive.
Such strong medicine would allow the US to quit "digging the hole deeper" and even begin to get out of it. The odds of that happening are exactly the same as the odds of any political party nominating Ron Paul or Anthony Principi or David Walker for President. Instead, politicians will yammer about a "lock box" (containing an I.O.U.!!) and members of the AARP will receive their full social security checks right up to the day the whole house of cards collapses.
Might be a good idea to arrange for your own security. Thanks to the "boyz" of Comex and what they did late Friday, both gold and stock in the company working the world's richest goldmine are temporarily available at sale prices. I suspect you'll be able to get a better price for either one on Monday than you will on Friday.
Caradoc
RR/others: Think of post 17 below as having the nation's Comptroller General adding emphasis and specifics to many of the fifteen "Fundamental Reasons to Own Gold" in post 8.
Caradoc
GAO's Comp Gen on US debt
http://www.respondanet.com/english/publications/Gaowalker.pdf
Very little press coverage of this speech, especially considering that it was delivered to the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. by David Walker, the nation's Comptroller General.
Snippet #1:
...while we are starting off in a financial hole we don't really have a very
good picture of how deep it is. Specifically, there are a number of very significant
items that are not currently included as liabilities in the federal government's
financial statements; for example, several trillion dollars in non-marketable
government securities in so-called "Trust Funds." In the case of the Social Security
and Medicare Trust Funds, the federal government took in taxpayer money, spent it
on other items and replaced it with an IOU. Given this fact, why aren't the amounts
attributed to such activities shown as a "liability" of the U.S. Government? At the
present time, they are not! Does this make sense, especially when the government
continues to tell Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries that they can count on
the bonds in these "Trust Funds"? Is the federal government trying to have its cake
and eat it too?
The current U.S government liability figures also do not adequately consider veterans'
health care benefit costs provided through the Department of Veteran's Affairs nor do
they include the difference between future promised and funded benefits in
connection with the Social Security and Medicare programs. These additional
amounts total tens of trillions of dollars in discounted present value terms. Stated
differently, they are likely to exceed $100,000 in additional burden for every man,
woman and child in America today, and these amounts are growing every day.
Snippet #2:
With regard to existing policies and programs, it is time to restructure existing
entitlement programs to make them secure, sustainable and aligned with 21st
Century economic, demographic and other realities.
So, in addition to Congressman Ron Paul and Anthony Principi -- secretary of Veterans Affairs -- the federal government has a third person who will stand up on his hind legs and speak the truth. The Comp Gen's prescriptions amount to a bitter pill of strong medicine. Restructuring social security, for example, to acknowledge 21st century demographic realities would mean planning for a greater percentage of recipients living into their 80s and 90s (spread that money thinner!) and taking into account that most 62 and 65 year olds are still potentially productive.
Such strong medicine would allow the US to quit "digging the hole deeper" and even begin to get out of it. The odds of that happening are exactly the same as the odds of any political party nominating Ron Paul or Anthony Principi or David Walker for President. Instead, politicians will yammer about a "lock box" (containing an I.O.U.!!) and members of the AARP will receive their full social security checks right up to the day the whole house of cards collapses.
Might be a good idea to arrange for your own security. Thanks to the "boyz" of Comex and what they did late Friday, both gold and stock in the company working the world's richest goldmine are temporarily available at sale prices. I suspect you'll be able to get a better price for either one on Monday than youy will on Friday.
Caradoc
PS: With Gulf War vets (Army and Air Force) suffering from ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease) at 2 to 2.7 times the expected rate, some already dead and others crawling around on their hands and knees because they couldn't afford wheelchairs, policy wonks at the VA presented their plan for arguing against any link between the disease and Gulf War service. Principi threw them out of his office and did the right thing. Kind of nice to know that a few of my tax dollars are being spent honorably even though cars run just fine on alcohol or natural gas (both producible from agricultural products) and there was no need to send troops into harm's way to secure "the free flow of oil at market prices [denominated in US dollars]."
One thing Oris watched for in his buy decisions was an upturn in On Balance Volume (OBV). I've been watching OBV for a number of different stocks and it does seem to be a strong indicator.
Caradoc
PS: Thanks for gettingthe spelling right for me!
Great photo:
http://www.joe-ks.com/archives_jul2003/GodsCreatures.jpg
Also seen on tee shirts.
Caradoc
Bernard: Thanks! Reading between the lines, if OBV continually adds each day's "higher high," then all it's saying is that case is that a stock has been going up lately. In which case, I guess it's nothing more than a trend indicator.
Thanks again!
Caradoc
Price action of the last few days looks like upward "head and shoulders." Has to be something going on... Maybe a federal contract that had to wait for the new fiscal year that began today?
Regards to all,
Caradoc
Bernard: I've never understood On Balance Volume (OBV) as to what it is or why it works. Could you please take a look at a one-month chart of my favorite GG and give me your take on it?
Yes, it bodes well for price tomorrow and fits with the otherwise inexplicable surge that shows at the end if a one-day chart but it makes no sense that -- with gold off its record high and GG volume dropping four days in a row -- OBV is giving as positive an indication as it has during GG's rise over the last six months.
As with other sorts of TA, I can't accept the idea that charts actually cause something to happen (other than as a self-fulfilling prophecy simply because enough people believe in it). So, any thoughts would be welcome.
Caradoc
Anybody heard from Orvis? He hasn't posted for months any I-Hub boards. -Caradoc
Goldcorp Declares Fifth Dividend Payment:
Businesswire, Wednesday, October 01, 2003 at 10:47
TORONTO, Oct 1, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- (All dollar amounts in US$)
GOLDCORP INC. (NYSE:GG) (TSX:G) is pleased to declare its fifth bi-monthly dividend payment for 2003 of US$0.025 per share. Shareholders of record at the close of business on Friday, October 10, 2003 will be entitled to receive payment of this dividend on Friday, October 17, 2003. This brings the total dividend payment for the year to US$0.125 per share. Goldcorp intends to pay a total of US$0.15 per share during 2003 in six equal bi-monthly installments of US$0.025 per share.
Goldcorp's Red Lake Mine is the richest gold mine in the world. The Company is in excellent financial condition: has NO DEBT, a Large Treasury and Strong Cash Flow and Earnings. GOLDCORP is completely UNHEDGED. Goldcorp's shares are listed on the New York and Toronto Stock Exchanges under the trading symbols of GG and G, respectively and its options trade on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Pacific Stock Exchange (PCX) in the United States and on the Montreal Exchange (MX) in Canada.
Gold is better than Money, Goldcorp is Gold!
SOURCE: Goldcorp Inc.
CONTACT: Goldcorp Inc.
Chris Bradbrook, 416-865-0326
Fax: 416-361-5741
e-mail: info@goldcorp.com
or
Goldcorp Inc. Corporate Office:
145 King Street West
Suite 2700, Toronto, Ontario M5H 1J8
website: www.goldcorp.com
Bullarky: I'm convinced that candlestick TA gives more insight than traditional TA, but sometimes underlying fundamentals outweigh TA of any sort. With most gold producers having costs in excess of $200 per ounce and GG operating at $76 per ounce, GG will do what gold does. GG's high over $15 last week was gold hitting a seven-year high. The "boyz" slapped gold down so GG went with it. Gold was back up a bit yesterday and so was GG. A quick look at kitco.com shows gold back up another $1.70 in pre-New York trading, so I have a pretty good hunch what GG will do today.
Bottom line: With GG's eventual price being determined by where gold goes, the question becomes whether there are underlying reasons for gold to go even higher than the figure it reached last week. The answer -- in bold letters about 3 feet high -- is in John Embry's "Fundamental Reasons to Own Gold":
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1507087
Regards,
Caradoc
Cookies are great, but right now I'm about to get below 250 pounds for the first time in a long time so cookies will have to wait.
Caradoc
PS: poked the fire; added a log.
Poster bbgold of the Candlestick board looks at GG:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1509624
My response is at http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1513022
Regards,
Caradoc
bbgold: It's fine with me that GG didn't need to bounce off $13.50 (SMA 30) to get back above 14. I'm reloaded (tradingwise) at 13.99 with funds liberated at 14.62. The question will be where to unload on the next upward swing.
I'm looking for all gold-related paper to do extremely well after October 16 if/when and to the extent that the public becomes aware of the GATA trial.
As for how long and how high of gold will go, all I know is that when cab drivers and convenience store employees start talking gold, it's time to be loose in the saddle and ready to jump off. When the herd arrives, the herd is always wrong.
Caradoc
Bernard: That was a good instinct to hesitate about your mom's money going into a mutual fund at this point. California real estate might be an even worse investment at this point in the bubble but at least you get to keep the dirt after everything crashes and burns.
Caradoc
Thank you, but my trading shares of GG had already been sold that morning. The end-of-day problem wasn't unloading but deciding when to buy.
Any insight on the next interim high? (Just eyeballing it, I'd say 75% chance of 15.75 of better -- which means selling at 15.6X since I'm not greedy -- and maybe 10 or 15% chsnce of approaching 16. And (pure ctystal ball now) anybody who holds out for 16 gets to ride down to the next dip.
My introduction to candlesticks was listening to Tony Golan back when he was on Los Angeles radio once a week as a guest on Buz Schwartz's radio show. Couldn't see the internet charts he was talking from since I was commuting eastward on the 91 freeway, but just listening to how he described the various patterns was intriguing. I just checked Google and Tony is evidently doing on Phoenix radio what he used to do so well in Los Angeles. His website
http://www.hedged.com/
has two candlestick charts (I assume the ones he talked about most recently?) and audio files of broadcasts from 4 - 25 September. No doubt he's still selling his do-it-yourself seminar and his other service (which used to be faxes and I assume would now be email) telling you what to buy if it did this or that and when to sell when it did whatever.
Thanks again,
Caradoc
Make that 3 new gold boards on I-Hub within the last three days (which may say something aboutthe investment community's interest in the yellow metal). Here's the new Goldcorp board:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1997
which is already looking better than when it started yesterday morning thanks to HTML by jmhollen. Maybe I can get John to splice in a graphic of the one year chart....
Caradoc
We have two new gold-related boards here on I-Hub: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1999
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1998
Having three new gold boards in three days just might say something about the investment community's increasing awareness of gold. We'll see, won't we? Meanwhile, that host suggests the Mostly Classical board as an ongoing hangout for those interested in the yellow metal.
Caradoc
TF: Good to see another gold-related board here on I-Hub! I'll tell folks on the Goldcorp board that you're here. Two new gold boards in three days just might say something about the increasing interest in the yellow metal.
Caradoc
FUNDAMENTAL REASONS TO OWN GOLD
BY: JOHN EMBRY, PRESIDENT & PORTFOLIO MANAGER* OF THE SPROTT GOLD AND PRECIOUS MINERALS FUND. SEPTEMBER 20, 2003
[Originally at the Sprott website, this text was lifted from http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp under "News Archives" for 24 September 2003]
1.Global Currency Debasement:
The US dollar is fundamentally & technically very weak and should fall dramatically. However, other countries are very reluctant to see their currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the US dollar. Thus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement which will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise significantly in price.
2. Investment Demand for Gold is Accelerating:
When the crowd recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will create an enormous investment demand for gold. To facilitate this demand, a number of new vehicles like Central Gold Trust and gold Exchange Traded Funds (Elf's) are being created.
3. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the US:
In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. At the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels which have portended currency collapse in virtually every other instance in history.
4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (US Dollar):
To combat the deteriorating financial conditions in the US, interest rates have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are expected to remain so for some time. There has been a very strong historical relationship between negative real interest rates and stronger gold prices.
5. Dramatic Increases in Money Supply in the US and Other Nations:
US authorities are terrified about the prospects for deflation given the unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the US. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing press and will use it to combat deflation if necessary. Other nations are following in the US's footsteps and global money supply is accelerating. This is very gold friendly.
6. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand:
Gold mine supply is roughly 2500 tonnes per annum and traditional demand (jewellery, industrial users, etc.) has exceeded this by a considerable margin for a number of years. Some of this gap has been filled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary source of above-ground supply.
7. Mine Supply is Anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four Years:
Even if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide economic weakness, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist due to a decline in mine supply. Mine supply will contract in the next several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary for survival in the sub-economic gold price environment of the past five years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.
8. Large Short Positions:
To fill the gap between mine supply and demand, Central Bank gold has been mobilized primarily through the leasing mechanism, which facilitated producer hedging and financial speculation. Strong evidence suggests that between 10,000 and 16,000 tonnes (30- 50% of all Central Bank gold) is currently in the market. This is owed to the Central Banks by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions.
9. Low Interest Rates Discourage Hedging:
Rates are low and falling. With low rates, there isn't sufficient contango to create higher prices in the out years. Thus there is little incentive to hedge and gold producers are not only not hedging, they are reducing their existing hedge positions, thus removing gold from the market.
10. Rising Gold Prices and Low Interest Rates Discourage Financial Speculation on the Short Side:
When gold prices were continuously falling and financial speculators could access Central Bank gold at a minimal leasing rate (0.5 - 1% per annum), sell it and reinvest the proceeds in a high yielding bond or Treasury bill, the trade was viewed as a lay up. Everyone did it and now there are numerous stale short positions. However, these trades now make no sense with a rising gold price and declining interest rates.
11. The Central Banks are Nearing an Inflection Point when they will be Reluctant to Provide more Gold to the Market:
The Central Banks have supplied too much already via the leasing mechanism. In addition, Far Eastern Central Banks who are accumulating enormous quantities of US Dollars are rumored to be buyers of gold to diversify away from the US Dollar.
12. Gold is Increasing in Popularity:
Gold is seen in a much more positive light in countries beginning to come to the forefront on the world scene. Prominent developing countries such as China, India and Russia have been accumulating gold. In fact, China with its 1.3 billion people recently established a National Gold Exchange and relaxed control over the asset. Demand in China is expected to rise sharply and could reach 500 tonnes in the next few years.
13. Gold as Money is Gaining Credence
Islamic nations are investigating a currency backed by gold (the Gold Dinar), the new President of Argentina proposed, during his campaign, a gold backed peso as an antidote for the financial catastrophe which his country has experienced and Russia is talking about a fully convertible currency with gold backing.
14. Rising Geopolitical Tensions
The deteriorating conditions in the Middle East, the US occupation of Iraq, the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and the growing conflict between the US and China due to China's refusal to allow its currency to appreciate against the US dollar headline the geopolitical issues, which could explode at anytime. A fearful public has a tendency to gravitate towards gold.
15. Limited Size of the Total Gold Market Provides Tremendous Leverage:
All the physical gold in existence is worth somewhat more than $1 trillion US Dollars while the value of all the publicly traded gold companies in the world is less than $100 billion US dollars. When the fundamentals ultimately encourage a strong flow of capital towards gold and gold equities, the trillions upon trillions worth of paper money could propel both to unfathomably high levels.
New board on gold & Goldcorp:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1997
Bob/John:
Bob: May your "sleeper" cease her slumber!
John: After mentioning stock options in another forum, I was reminded that "all paper will burn." It's true that many possible (maybe probable) scenarios lead to situations in which paper is worthless and only the "real thing" will serve. In passing, though, note there are even worse scenarios equivalent to the guy aboard the lifeboat who's holding the last Hershey bar and wouldn't trade it for a sackful of MS-64 coins. (Me? I might offer half the Hershey bar....) And admittedly, options are about as far away from physical gold as you can get: a piece of paper that (ta da!!) entitles you to buy another piece of paper.
With that said, my personal approach is that the way we defend/enhance the perceived value of gold in hand is by having cash in hand to buy gold-related paper when it nears the bottom of its trading range. And the way to assure having available cash is to sell a fraction of my paper position as nears the top of its trading range. Whether zigging up or zagging down within the trading range, capturing 5/6 or 7/8 of the movement is plenty for me and less stressful than trying to predict exact tops and bottoms.
Others do it differently. Even without thinking of the law of supply and demand, "they also serve" who support/enhance gold's dollar price by steadily taking a half-ounce or so out of circulation every now and then with no thought but accumulating wealth to pass to their grandchildren. At the other extreme, true traders manage to jump in and out of paper positions at the 100% level in eitherdirection Too sporty for me, and I hope they've socked away some of the "real thing" for the day when their monitors don't light up.
One of John Donne's poems described a tree big enough to shelter a diverse flock of birds. Those interested in gold are certainly a diverse group, and I'd like to welcome all of them this board.
"Caradoc"
I hate annoying ads myself. How bad are these radio ads? Any chance you could grit your teeth and write down a sentence or two from one of the wretched things to post here? Sure would appreciate the chance to get some of the content without booming "announcer voice" or irritating background music.
Gordon (AKA "Caradoc")
An invitation: Despite the PWTC experience, my brother, sister, and boss have chosen to follow my advice again. This time it's working out the way I expected so far. Come to think of it, though, even though it's the same brother and sister it's a different boss this time....
In any event, you're all invited to visit my new board on Goldcorp:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1997
Nothing fancy (it's only about an hour's worth of effort toward what it ought to be and today's draft version "cheats" by re-using an email to my brother), but it attempts to communicate information about gold and about Goldcorp in particular and even in this rough form includes some information that to the best of my knowledge isn't available elsewhere in one place.
So far, the first post is still available. Y'all come now, ya hear?
Back to PWTC: Watching things closely here. On one hand, if it turns out that the company didn't ever really have rights to the battery patent, then the PRs misrepresented and I was an unpaid shill repeating lies that I believed were true. In that case, I want a piece of the guy responsible. On the other hand, it seems unlikely that the Alvin Snaper (whose brilliance and integrity have impressed much of the nation's R&D community) would sit by like a patsy in face-to-face meeting with this board's "Reg Guheert" withoput mentioning "Oh, by the way, this whole PWTC battery thing is a sham."
Like the rest of you, I'll have to wait and see. Since my 5-year plan for PWTC is badly off track and I still want to put Logman to work near the shore of Big Bear Lake sometime about 2006, I needed an investment vehicle with prospects and odds such that two years will do what I thought PWTC would do in five. For what it's worth, trading in Goldcorp has been delivering the needed profits since last April.
Regards to all,
Caradoc
Hello Husker, Onebgg, and others!
Husker mentioned this board to me over on another board that focuses on things even more important than hunting and fishing and a lot more important than making money in the stock market.
Evenso, if you don't mind making a few bucks (or if you're looking for an almost brand new Honda generator just right for camping but not strong enough to power two sump pumps, or if you'd like to see some rationale why gold and gold stocks might be going a lot higher), you're more than welcome to visit my new board on Goldcorp:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1997
Please note that this board isn't fancy. It's only about an hour's worth of effort toward what it ought to be, so take it as an effort to communicate, not impress.
As of right now, first post is still available.
I left the chopped wood over by the stump. Ax is back in the truck. Fresh kindling is in the orange plastic bucket. Keep the lid on tight in case it rains.
Caradoc
This is fascinating! I really like the names for the various formations. Even more important,it seems to work. Two questions:
1. Any opinions on the extent to which (like traditional TA) it works because enough believers act together to make it happen?
2. Would any of you candlestick gurus have time to interpret the monotonous rise of GG since last April?
Glad I discovered you.
Caradoc
Arch: Thanks for the Quicken chart of gold stocks under 10 bucks. CAU was a new one for me. I've bookmarked it with one addition, Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) which is my personal favorite even though it went past 10 bucks last April. We do buy these things because they're going up, right?
Here's post on GG from a few hours ago to the "Market Sense and Sentiment" board (just pretend near the end that "hanble" is spelled "handle."):
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1505004
Caradoc
Bob: Thanks for the invite on Bernard's old penny pick board. The time for pennies will come again, but we'll all be 5 to 7 years older because it will be the frothy 18 to 24 months at the end of the next bull market. There's a supposedly true story about a New York company that went public two days before the 1929 crash. It was the [forgot the name] cemetery that you could see when taking off from LaGuadia airport. Despite the fact that the cemetery was already full, the stock went up 41% in those two days. Go figure.
The next bull won't start until the current rally collapses so our big bear market can finally come to an end. When the real bull finally starts, the thing to buy won't be as exciting as pennies; it will be longterm bonds from medium-rated companies that need only an improving market to become top-rated. Then, when rising market improves the rating, it's easy enough to unload top-rated bonds that are still paying the higher interest of a medium-rated bond. Profitable, but not a lot of fun.
Hate to sound negative, but almost everything is overpriced (S&P at 30-something times earnings? Forget it!) and when the next bull comes it may take the DOW all the way from 1500 to 3000.
So what am I doing instead? Gold. Tell me if the 10-year chart looks like what some call a spoon and others call a cup and handle:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html
If so, it's due to move briskly when it completes the parabola at 400 or so. And there's a whole potful of non-TA reasons why gold is going higher.
Yeah, I've got a small horde of 1-ounce coins, and 20 to 30 percent is better than what banks are paying, but the gold stocks are better if you can remember to buy low and sell high.
The one with the most predictable trading channel is Goldcorp (NYSE:GG). If you look at the series of higher lows, you'll see thet today was buying day and, yes, I was reinvesting what I took out just shy of 15.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gg&sid=0&o_symb=gg&x=7&a...
The next interim high may reach 15.75 or higher but I will have sold at 15.60. Why? Because capturing 5/6 or 7/8 is good enough and assures that I have cash to buy the next low.
What's really fun is jumping in and out of options.I even kept some of the January 12.50 calls because if it's above 20 per share (98% probability?) I'll exercise the options and avoid a taxable transaction by buying more of the stock. Meanwhile, the 15 and 17.50 options for January and April are cheap enough (i.e., as cheap as the 12.50s were a month ago) that a few hundred bucks gives you a hanble on a lot of stock.
I may start a gold/Goldcorp board and lay out the logic better than this post. If so, you got the gist of it already.
Regards,
Caradoc
OT RR check mail EOM
Sounds good...EOM
Totally OT:
For what it's worth, I'm betting that my PWTC losses won't be enough to offset profits in gold, which went up over 7 bucks per ounce overnight.
Other than inflating by umpteen billion dollars for Iraq, two specific reasons for what happened last night:
(1) Mitsui took its loss by dumping slightly over 9000 short contracts and went long with 9200 plus long contracts.
(2) News story at 7:15 (eastern): judge decides that the GATA'/Blanchard price-fixing lawsuit against Barrick and Morgan Chase will continue. A couple months ago, the defense had argued that since central banks around the world had been involved and since the court didn't have jurisdiction over those banks, it wouldn't be fair to have a trial without the central banks as co-defendants. In effect, the judge said "No, I've got jurisdiction over you and that's enough for a trial." Today, the trial starts with the defense making a motion for summary judgment and the judge threw that out too.
Here's snip from the url that follows:
"The Blanchard case now promises embarrassing disclosures about secret collusion between Barrick, Wall Street, and central banks to control the price of gold. GATA congratulates and is deeply grateful to Blanchard & Co." Murphy continued: "For five years GATA has painstakingly developed the evidence of the surreptitious suppression of the gold price. We've done a good job but we haven't had the power to compel the perpetrators to disclose their records and answer questions under oath. Now Blanchard & Co. will have that power in pursuit of the truth about the gold market. The results may be explosive - and liberating not only to mining companies and gold investors but also to the developing countries that have been devastated for so long by the gold price suppression scheme. Justice is coming."
http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/0909018N.html
Don't think that it's too late to climb aboard. If/when it becomes common knowledge that the price of gold has been artificially suppressed for decades, the price movement will be like releasing a basketball from the bottom of a swimming pool.
I won't bother this board with gold again, but will respond to any PMs and provide a few links. I wish all of you well and gold just might be a way to "get well."
Regards,
Caradoc
There's also GG (Goldcorp). Meant to type those two letters a week or so ago but typed BB instead. Up came a bank in Chile which within the last hour or so had broken out of a 14.50-15.40 trading range and gone up a notch to almost 16. The sucker went up at a 45 degree angle for 6 days in a row.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=bb&sid=0&o_symb=bb&freq=...
Just on general principles, the next time I accidentally discover a breakout situation, I'm going to buy some.
Caradoc
HD: Sounds like the forward split went off as scheduled in early May. Can't figure why it would have been worth 5 times the current price, though. As for recent trades, clicking on the Knobias link by the board's intro text shows one August 400- or 450-share trade at 4.25 and another trade of the same size at 4.50 happening at the end of July or the beginning of August.
Bigcharts.com shows a slightly different story. If I'm reading the volume graph correctly, 10 or 11 trades during July and August at four different prices between 4.50 and 4.00.
Caradoc
HD: Market cap of 8.71 million (per Knobias) divided by 4.25 per share says total of slightly over two million shares outstanding. And that's after a 5-for-1 split. So they had about 409 thousand shares earlier this year?
And only two transactions so far in August for a total of less than 1000 shares.... You did find this one early!!
Caradoc
With Hasher having personally done the soldering for a batch or two of samples, I have no doubt the battery is "real." For that matter, just reading the patent (and maybe checking a table of electronegativity values for the NiFe version) is enough to say it's real. But it's also real that you get current if you stick strips of two different metals into a glass of lemon juice. The question isn't about reality but about whether any company wants to adopt the technology and pay for the privilege.
Since you're apparently thinking in terms of a year, one low cost approach (a lot cheaper than paying shares to a "consultant" who does little or nothing before dumping the shares!) would be to whip up a batch of the NiFe version sufficient to serve as the battery bank for one homeowner's photovoltaic system. Reg has already volunteered to serve as guinea pig and I'd be willing to do the same. A nice article in Home Power magazine 10 months later would -- in my opinion -- create enough interest/demand at the retail level to make some battery company willing to get involved.
Off to work....
Caradoc
Oris: You may even be uderstating the "comfort" angle. Having a delicate part of your body mashed flat so that current technology can do the job can't be a lot of fun. If this technology is ever made available so that women have a choice, it's the one they will choose.
Caradoc
Peep: My cheapest shares were about 29 cents. I remember envying the person who got some for 27 cents that day. Whoever it was, we both would have been better off buying copper pipe, oil filters, and a few cases of synthetic motor oil. Or whatever else might be useful in life. I was thinking about buying more about the time you entered; decided to buy 1 ounce gold eagles instead and haven't regretted it.
It's true that negativity doesn't help things, but I can only think of two good things here:
1. Under new SEC emphasis on propriety, LB is no longer talking "cash cow" about prospective things that might work out and might not.
2. Like Tex, I've got enough longterm shares to be able to sell at a loss and avoid tax on any longterm gains I may make elsewhere.
True, that last one is not much of a plus since it just means getting back some percentage of dollars that have virtually evaporated. And the first one doesn't say a whole lot either.
Regards,
Caradoc
JM: You like XM better than Sirius? EOM
POB: Check PMs. EOM