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Yeah, I have a couple in at 21.50 but doubt it will get there.
My daily chart shows the 200 day all the way down at 17. Hard for me to believe it would hit that right now, but I've seen stranger things happen to good companies.
Improves my credibility a little bit. Now if I can get myself to wait for a retest of the lows...
I'm not as adroit as you guys. Hard for me to play the bounces.
Plain and simple, I don't like that it cannot bust through the 23.50 level. My experience tells me that it is not likely to hang around at this level and my gut is telling me it will go back down. Lord knows how many times I've been wrong, but I'm still in the game so I pay attention. I also do not feel bad about buying back at higher levels, but for now I think I will wait and watch. I also sold a good chunk of what has been a long term position in ELN. Now for that one I could be very wrong indeed.
FRPT
Sold all the rest of it.
Looks to be a non-issue and nothing that will give us more cheap shares.
You and me both. Wouldn't that be a lovely double bottom for another run? Could happen, but my guess is it won't try a retest before next week. In the mean time, I hope this run continues.
That was carrying it somewhat to an extreme for me, but when you've done the dd and watched it preform for over a year...
Well, last I checked, that war was still going on and these people were still going to make a ton of money from orders we've not even heard of yet. No, this is solid and yet being beaten unmercifully. I just bought a bit in every account I had control over at different levels.
If they give me another chance like that, I will take it, otherwise I will work with what I currently own. Next stop: 25.50+
Thank you gentlemen, I'm outta here. Sold 3500 shares FRPT for 23.25, all bought below 21.50. Still have enough for a good run to 25, though I'd not be the least bit surprised to see it turn back for a while here.
Good luck to y'all.
Jay
Excellent price, it that is what you really got. You will have to introduce me to your buyer ;)
(I think I know what you really mean.)
Well, it has always treated me good in the past. I'm certainly not the best chart reader, but looks like some resistance around 23.30. Take that for what it's worth.
Yes and it gave me heartburn. We are at 22.80. Can we get above 23 in the next hour? Hmm...maybe the next 5 minutes. I'll stick around a bit...
Sell order in above 23 (but not whole position; just shares bought this morning). Hope I'm not asking too much.
Off to rent a block cutting saw. Can I trust you guys with this market?
We shall see how it opens. Don't know if I can grit my teeth and get a third position, though it has treated me well in the past. Plus I will be force to be more adroit with my selling than I like. I'm not a day trader by nature (though I don't spurn unexpected opportunity).
ELN selling down a bit too. Might consider getting those trading shares back under 21.
FRPT
Guess my perspective was slightly different, since I walked out of here after the close when it was at 21.70 and came back and checked AH trading and saw 21.30 and that news. Yes, your right. Not much of a sell-off considering how the day went.
Should get support here somewhere.
FRPT
Didn't see the news myself 'til late this afternoon. Evidently it is old news though the 8K just filed today. Too bad. Probably wait it out myself.
The following is taken from a post on IV:
Frank resigning was posted on June 15, 2007
Force Protection, Inc. Board Member Steps Down
BusinessWire - June 15, 2007 4:05 PM ET
Related Quotes
Symbol Last Chg
FRPT Trade 21.739 -1.721
Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes
Leading armored vehicle manufacturer Force Protection, Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT) today announced that Frank Kavanaugh will step down from his position on the board of directors. His departure will be effective at the next shareholder meeting on June 21, 2007.
"Frank has been a visionary from the beginning," said Force Protection CEO Gordon McGilton. "When he began in 2001, the company was called Sonic Jet and it was financially and strategically floundering. Instead of abandoning a failed investment as other money managers might have done, Frank stepped in, rolled up his sleeves, identified a direction, gathered the necessary resources, and built a world-class organization. Force Protection is also an important financial success story. Under Frank's guidance, the company grew from $1.2 million in 2001 to $196 million in annual revenue in 2006. In the first quarter of 2007, Force Protection has already delivered over $100 million in revenue. Perhaps most remarkable is how the market cap for the company moved from less than $1 million in 2001 to more than $1.75 billion today under Frank's leadership.
"He has overseen remarkable corporate growth," said McGilton. "In the past four years, Force Protection's workforce has increased from less than a dozen employees to more than 950, its vehicle production rates have risen, its production infrastructure has expanded to a state-of-the-art 400,000 square foot campus and additional facilities, and its stock moved to the NASDAQ Stock Market in January 2006. In addition, more than $200 million in funding has been secured and partnerships have been forged with other industry leaders to continue to meet demand for our lifesaving vehicles.
"It is a rare privilege to work with someone of Frank's intelligence, passion, dedication, and perseverance," McGilton said. "Force Protection has richly benefited from his leadership and drive. We are extremely appreciative of his contribution and will continue to call on his expertise when required."
Force Protection's Buffalo and Cougar mine protected vehicles have been deployed with U.S. and Allied forces in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003. They have an unmatched record for troop safety with over more than two million hours of heavy combat operations, and are credited by troops with saving lives.
According to Kavanaugh, "There were three critical objectives we set out to accomplish six years ago. First, develop a management team capable of maximizing the opportunities in this industry; second, secure the capital base necessary for Force Protection to become the robust, innovative, mainstream manufacturer it is today; third, create the management methods and resources for the business to continue to innovate and grow. Now, I want to return my focus and energy to personal obligations and responsibilities.
"I am proud of the executive team that has been developed over the last three years, and confident that they will continue to demonstrate why Force Protection has been so successful," Kavanaugh said. "The organization's leaders are capable of taking Force Protection to new heights.
"It has been enormously gratifying to be engaged with the finest professionals in the industry as part of an enterprise that has revolutionized blast protection for the people I hold in the highest esteem, the men and women who are willing to sacrifice to defend our country," said Kavanaugh. "I look forward to continuing my support of Force Protection as an involved investor. Our business is about saving lives through the vehicles we produce. It has been deeply meaningful to be involved in such important work."
Force Protection is a leading ballistics research and manufacturing enterprise, specializing in the development and production of highly reinforced armored personnel carriers that are designed to save soldiers' lives by shielding them from the deadly effects of roadside bombs, or IEDs, which have become a leading killer of U.S. troops in Iraq. The trucks' unique, V-shaped hull is designed to deflect the force of IED blasts away from the vehicle, keeping soldiers inside safe and alive, and have become the proven response to an emerging global threat to U.S. troops. Its leading models include the 23 ton "Buffalo", a uniquely-designed mine clearance vehicle with a reinforced mechanical arm, and the family of "Cougar" vehicles, both of whose mine and ballistic protection capabilities are among the most advanced in the world. The vehicles are manufactured outside Charleston, S.C. Visit the company's website at www.forceprotection.net.
This release contains forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements concerning our business, future plans and objectives and the performance of our products. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties ultimately may not prove to be accurate. Actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. The company cautions that these forward looking statements are further qualified by factors including, but not limited to, those set forth in the company's Form 10-K filing and other filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (available at http://www.sec.gov) and the company's public statements. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any statements in this release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
SOURCE: Force Protection, Inc.
Policy Impact Communications
Media:
Jeff Child, 202-737-5339
That sort of work used to bother me. Now I find it as kind of an escape. Plus when the weather is like this, I love being outside. I have many different projects going right now, but the others are worse in hot weather.
Put my sell in on the lower priced FRPT shares, but they didn't hit. Perhaps after hours. Not going to hang around and find out.
Later.
deck job
Went out and found the cat had gotten sick there. Or coughed up something nasty. The railings, where I was going to start were still damp and the whole thing was covered with those little nibs that Douglas fir and Hemlock shed when they are growing new needles. So I hosed it down, driving off the cat who thought I was out to make her life miserable. I will start again after market close. Really. Or maybe I'll catch a little nap first. I have a few minutes to decide.
FRPT
Nice bounce. Do you think we will retest 21? I mean like soon? I'm averaged just a bit over 22, but I'm playing it like it's someone else's money so I don't feel any pain. Nothing.
PNW: Pacific Northwest (Woodinville, WA)
FRPT
Good to see that natural law hasn't been repealed: Buy a stock, watch it go down. Wouldn't want to change the world and, say, repeal the law of gravity now, would we? And the best part about it was everyone had a chance to bail when I said I'd bought.
Well, now that it is down here, I will be a bit more active in my trading. Got another few shares at 21.65 (on the way down, natch). Someone please hand me my head...
FRPT
1. Stock has had an absolutely phenomenal run for the past year. Even accounting for the occasional retrace, it has not had much of a break. This one was due.
2.<sarcasm> Much to everyone's surprise, FRPT did not win every order for vehicles by all the armed forces, not to mention the British forces. Who would have thought that the government would want more than one supplier? </sarcasm>
3. Insider selling, for whatever the reason is usually a sign we are near a top.
4. Technically, we had a nice double top there in the 30's.
I've had this in my "core" account for the past year or so, but sold it all after that last pop to 30. As usual, I was late to the game so I didn't get the best price, but hey, this one has been good to me both as a trader and a long term hold. (My definition of long term is something over a month.) Unless the company gets bought out (no, I have no information there, nor do I wish to start any rumors) I'd say the easy money has been made. It is now simply a trader, but with plenty to be made there. Look for a good earnings run.
Now I've got to go out and paint the deck while the weather's good (supposedly 80's today in PNW).
Later,
Jay
FRPT
That would work for me. Have a feeling we could see lower levels later next month. Good luck with it.
Thanks. Got back into FRPT with you guys at 22.50. Being a swing trader, I'll probably stay for a while ('til Friday anyway).
Got rid of my trading shares (quite to my surprise) for 22.25. Couldn't be more pleased during what for me has been slim times.
Buyout rumor, or so I hear.
Nice call on NFI, Bruce. I put it on the screen yesterday, and jumped on it this morning when I saw the volume. If this keeps up, I'll name my next box BAT (Bruce A Thompson) box, since this one looks like it will pay for it. Not bad for a "frozen wing" jockey.
Jay
Good idea. I'll have to take myself off ignore...
OK, thanks. I'll practice on another board before I try again here.
Would this be another one?
This is my first try posting a chart. If it doesn't work, then using your own chart, check FRPT. I used 15 min, but 30 min works too.
Got LMRA @ 5.15 (hopefully bounce off 105EMA).
...and the hits just keep on comin'
Don't know who mentioned it, but NURO was a very nice trade today. In at 5.60 and out ah at 6.50. Oh, DNDN, the gift that keeps on giving (much like this thread), I got back in last week at 14.50. Thought I was being clever by selling May 17.50 covered calls for 5 on Friday, but of course, the stock just kept on going. Any idea on how far that one will go? Two billion market cap at this point seems a bit rich...
Yeah, this is bound to end some time, but for now enjoy it.
Jay
OT Yes, it's nice 'til storm season. We were without power for 8 days last December. Had a tree branch go through the living room ceiling. That is finally getting repaired this week.
I live in Woodinville, not too far away.
Interesting. I don't think the women on this board are anywhere near "average."
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/money/309856_womeninvest02.html
Investment gender gap: Men tend to charge ahead, women hold back
By ANDREA JAMES
P-I REPORTER
On his and hers investing, here's the breakdown:
He's confident, heady. She's shaky, hesitant.
He's got a game plan and he's optimistic that he's going to meet his financial goals. She contributes less to her retirement account and is less likely to trade stocks.
He trusts his own decisions. She worries more about her financial future, but does less about it.
"He" is the average American man and "she" is the average woman, according to the national Women and Investing Survey that Bellevue-based ShareBuilder Corp. plans to release this week.
But despair not, feminists. Although men say they know how to invest, experts point out that confidence doesn't necessarily translate to skill. She could bat home runs just as well, if only she were not too scared to step up to the plate.
Women are more likely to be intimidated by financial language, the survey showed. To many women, terms such as "positions" and "exchange traded funds" sound like jargon.
"Because so many women have not had the experience, have not gone out and started investing, there is no confidence," said Kim Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Woman," a financial literacy book published in 2006. "They don't know if they can do it or not."
But women are capable, she said, pointing out that many all-women investment clubs outperform all-men clubs.
Women tend to outlive men, so they have to take charge of finances sooner or later. Kiyosaki recommends sooner -- like now.
"The confidence and the self-esteem that I see with women who really grasp this and run with it is really the greatest reward," she said.
ShareBuilder, a deep-discount brokerage firm, partnered with Harris Interactive to randomly survey 2,033 U.S. households online last month. The annual survey helps the company compare all Americans to its customers, and adapt its service to be more user-friendly, Chief Executive Jeff Seely said.
Simply perceiving oneself as knowledgeable is a critical step toward becoming an investor, because people who are scared freeze at the controls, Seely said.
"That attitude -- the way that feels to you as the investor -- is really important," he said.
As women get older, their confidence tends to bump up to the level of men's.
"For their whole life, men feel like they are really knowledgeable about investing," Seely said. But for women, "the good news is that with age comes wisdom."
The survey, which had a 2 percentage-point margin of error, also tracked investing in single versus married folks. Three in four people said that their financial situations were better in marriage than in singledom. Women are better at knowing what they're marrying into -- they were more likely to know their partner's financial situation before getting hitched, the survey found.
Most couples talk about finances in the kitchen, followed by at the computer, in the bedroom and out of the house, the survey found.
Married and partnered people are also the most confident -- 68 percent say they will achieve their investment goals versus 61 percent of single people and 60 percent of those who are separated, divorced or widowed.
Dining out is the largest spending category for both sexes, though women are more than twice as likely to say that clothing is their biggest expense. Men are more likely to peg entertainment as their biggest expense.
Surveys on investment trends and abstract things such as feelings are popular because cold economic models cannot account for the ways that people invest, said Ronnie Sadka, a behavioral finance expert at the University of Washington Business School.
Confidence plays a major role in the markets and how people trade. So does overconfidence and biased self-attribution -- a phenomenon that causes people to think that they are better at picking stocks than is accurate.
"Pure, rational models that we have today cannot explain all the different patterns that we see in the stock market," Sadka said. "People say, 'Maybe we can look at psychological effects.' "
Women's hesitance to invest can make them better decision-makers, Kiyosaki said.
A study published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics backs that up with the assertion that overconfidence affects more men than women, thus causing men to trade more and hurt their portfolio performances, according to the 2001 study titled, "Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence and common stock investment."
Before women drop a dime on any investments, Kiyosaki recommends taking time to learn. But, she added, the biggest desire to learn comes from already being in the game.
Buy a piece of silver today for about $15, she suggested. Then, women will see how they naturally perk up about news about silver, and want to know more.
"All of a sudden, just because you put in $15 and you have this piece of silver in your hand, you become this mini-expert in silver," she said.
She also advised women to turn their natural tendencies to spend, as highlighted in the survey, into an investment strategy.
"I'm a big spender. I just spend on real estate," Kiyosaki said. "I go shopping for different investments."
Thanks Ico. Yes, I was somewhat nervous about this trade but I thought the downside was within reason. I could have been very wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time…
My wife and I have very dissimilar trading/investing styles. We pass information, but make no judgment calls on each other’s stocks. She is actually pretty good with the Biotech sector, and for the most part, I defer to her opinion. She paid her last son’s way through college with her trades (no help from me), so she’s pretty good.
I could go on and on about the VA. Maybe some other time. The point is, you go to war, you have to pay the price down the road. It isn’t over when everyone comes home. We will be paying for the Iraq conflict for a generation, not just when we inevitably bail from that hell-hole. I’m not done with that battle. I just could not stand by and let mine and my wife’s credit rating suffer with their inaction.
Thanks again,
Jay
I’d like to thank everyone for the kind words. Mars, when I powered up and checked the market at 4:45 a.m. (west coast time) and saw DNDN trading above 18, I thought of you and would have loved to have had your advise right about then. I did end up selling 1000 shares at $18.65, which was higher than anything I could have gotten during market hours. I sold the rest at various levels, the last 1000 shares going at about $12.80 (which is probably the point I should have been thinking about buying it back). I’ve followed your trading, here and on Zeev’s board, for some time and resigned myself to the fact that I cannot trade that way. I move at a slower pace: my best trades are usually swing trades that take some time to develop. I was very successful with FRPT, particularly while it was still an OB stock. I was in it (and trading around a core position) from 3 on up.
Had things gone the other way with DNDN, I figured the stock might trade as low as 2, but with short covering, I figured I could get out at 3. I had traded a couple of times for a point, so with my final entry at just above 5, I figured my downside risk was somewhere between 1 and 2 points. I’d have been out somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 and 10 Gs, which is no real great shakes in my volatile accounts. I’d make it back eventually. I’d be interested to hear if others had a much different read than that. I was somewhat surprised that so few took the gamble.
Using a high of 18.05 (during market hours Friday) and a low of 3.57, I come up with the following Fibonacci retrace numbers: 38.2% is 12.52, 50% is 10.81, and 61.8% is 9.10. My best guess is it will go no lower than the 10.81 (or thereabouts).
The immediate risk, as I see it, is if DNDN decides to do a secondary before the 5/15 FDA meeting. Not to read too much into such a potential event, but that could indicate that they may not be so confident about final approval. A secondary after the FDA meeting would seem to be much more lucrative. Even with the terrific volume on Friday, I’ll bet there is still a lot of shares short out there. Experienced traders who got caught short would likely have doubled down Friday morning, trading in and out to get some of that back. There were probably a whole lotta people like me, willing to cash in their chips with this big gain.
The FDA, by orchestrating the final question put to the panel, indicated to me that they would like to approve this drug. My wife disagrees. She is much more savvy on this sort of thing than I am, but as I see it, the FDA cannot lose. Since the panel unanimously agreed the drug was “safe” what do they have to lose from approving it, even if it eventually proves to do nothing?
There is a precedent with the approval of Elan’s Tysabri last year. ELN was allowed to reintroduce Ty with a stiff warning label. I could see something similar with Provenge: some sort of warning that the drug has not been conclusively proven to be effective. The lesson we are starting to see here and which will undoubtedly be useful for future Biotech trades is this: the FDA is willing to err on the side of compassion as long as potential harm is minimal.
As far as trading goes, could be a nice buy and hold up to mid May. Depending on how high it goes, “sell the news” could be the order of the day at that point unless you are in for the long term. Might be a good time to get puts.
Don’t know if I will buy or not. I’m just putting this out there and hoping someone else will chime in. This is as far out on a limb as I’ve been on a message board, but with all the wonderful trades I’ve seen here, I thought I’d give you guys my best.
Jay
DNDN
Ico, I want to thank you for your post a week ago Friday:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18156481
I checked out the board you referenced, looked at the chart, and figured it would be good for a trade or two before the stock would be halted for the advisory panel meeting. I did reasonably well, trading in 2500 lots in two IRA accounts—I’m far from being the caliber trader typical of the active posters on your board, but I make a living.
Come Wednesday, I’d bailed on my positions (too early, natch) and watched it trade up to about $5.30. I contemplated the advisability of holding it through the halt and came to the following conclusions:
Reasons Against (in no particular order)
1. Hard time following discussion on Biotech board. Discussion was very technical and since I don’t know much about this field, it might be a bad idea to bet on this one.
2. Chief Moderator of Biotech board didn’t seem to think holding this was a good idea. His analysis of the chances of Provenge getting a pass was something I could understand and seemed well reasoned.
3. Checked out the Investor Village stock board: my goodness, talk about drinking the coolaid! My general experience is that thousands of posts in a day on a particular stock indicates it is likely overhyped. You are best advised to short or stay away.
4. Speak of shorting, there was a very large short position. I don’t hold with the idea that shorters (as a body of investors) are more knowledgeable than everyone else, but in this case, it appeared the smart money was betting Provenge would fail.
5. My wife, who does follow biotech stocks somewhat and is active on a private board passed along the following, “…there has never been a drug that failed all primary and secondary endpoints and got approved on the first go – never”.
So as you can see, the smart thing to do was to give this one a pass. I bought 5000 shares—2500 apiece in two separate IRA accounts.
The rest is history, so to speak. I bailed at various levels Friday. I think it is safe to say that this one surpassed my wildest dreams (hell, I was thinking a $10 open, max). If this isn’t my biggest win monetarily, it certainly is in the top three. (I’ve done better percentage wise on stuff I cannot mention on your board—nor would I even if it was allowed. Most of those are trash.) I’m sure quite a few on this board could have done much better with this position going into Friday, I’ll take it and not look back. I don’t think I will even try to trade it from here, as I think I’d only blow it and dilute the memory of a very good trade.
On a personal note, I will add that I had some very big medical bills that I paid off with this one. I had two medical emergencies last year. I have VA coverage, but as I’m finding out, that is little better than having no insurance at all. They left me high and dry with major expenses that up until yesterday, I had little chance of paying off easily. The emotional strain from that go-round with the government has taken it’s toll on my well-being. The relief of paying that off yesterday was indescribable. Yes, I have to take money from the IRA to handle this, and yes, I know about the 10% penalty, but even after taking a significant draw, I’m still ahead in that account. Don’t ask me what I think of the VA, though. I’m not likely to forget that lesson soon.
Thanks again to you and the other posters on one of the best trading boards on Ihub. (It’s nice to think the sheep can win one every now and then.)
Jay
Gosh, I figured if I watched you guys closely enough, I'd wind up rich or in jail. Got in PKTO @ .004 and .005. How many bags is
Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?
In my world, I'm better as a contrary indicator.
I owe you guys, though (meaning guys in a non-gender way). I've had some very nice short-term gains from some stocks listed on this board.
If I see a good one that can be posted here, I'll give a heads-up.
VII
Yes, but I bought it last week. I really like that small float. I figured if their earnings were good, which they were, it would run. It ran faster than I thought it would, so I'm not really sure if it will gap tomorrow, but we shall see. I've not sold any yet. I think it can make 8, perhaps 10.
PS: I'm wrong more often than I'd care to admit.
Edit: I see you suggested 12 as a fair value. Sounds good to me...
Regards
Gapper VII
I've followed this board for a while, so I thought I'd throw one out there...