Naz News, Gappers and FLE's

[jwalk]

DNDN

Ico, I want to thank you for your post a week ago Friday:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18156481

I checked out the board you referenced, looked at the chart, and figured it would be good for a trade or two before the stock would be halted for the advisory panel meeting. I did reasonably well, trading in 2500 lots in two IRA accounts—I’m far from being the caliber trader typical of the active posters on your board, but I make a living.

Come Wednesday, I’d bailed on my positions (too early, natch) and watched it trade up to about $5.30. I contemplated the advisability of holding it through the halt and came to the following conclusions:

Reasons Against (in no particular order)
1. Hard time following discussion on Biotech board. Discussion was very technical and since I don’t know much about this field, it might be a bad idea to bet on this one.
2. Chief Moderator of Biotech board didn’t seem to think holding this was a good idea. His analysis of the chances of Provenge getting a pass was something I could understand and seemed well reasoned.
3. Checked out the Investor Village stock board: my goodness, talk about drinking the coolaid! My general experience is that thousands of posts in a day on a particular stock indicates it is likely overhyped. You are best advised to short or stay away.
4. Speak of shorting, there was a very large short position. I don’t hold with the idea that shorters (as a body of investors) are more knowledgeable than everyone else, but in this case, it appeared the smart money was betting Provenge would fail.
5. My wife, who does follow biotech stocks somewhat and is active on a private board passed along the following, “…there has never been a drug that failed all primary and secondary endpoints and got approved on the first go – never”.

So as you can see, the smart thing to do was to give this one a pass. I bought 5000 shares—2500 apiece in two separate IRA accounts.

The rest is history, so to speak. I bailed at various levels Friday. I think it is safe to say that this one surpassed my wildest dreams (hell, I was thinking a $10 open, max). If this isn’t my biggest win monetarily, it certainly is in the top three. (I’ve done better percentage wise on stuff I cannot mention on your board—nor would I even if it was allowed. Most of those are trash.) I’m sure quite a few on this board could have done much better with this position going into Friday, I’ll take it and not look back. I don’t think I will even try to trade it from here, as I think I’d only blow it and dilute the memory of a very good trade.

On a personal note, I will add that I had some very big medical bills that I paid off with this one. I had two medical emergencies last year. I have VA coverage, but as I’m finding out, that is little better than having no insurance at all. They left me high and dry with major expenses that up until yesterday, I had little chance of paying off easily. The emotional strain from that go-round with the government has taken it’s toll on my well-being. The relief of paying that off yesterday was indescribable. Yes, I have to take money from the IRA to handle this, and yes, I know about the 10% penalty, but even after taking a significant draw, I’m still ahead in that account. Don’t ask me what I think of the VA, though. I’m not likely to forget that lesson soon.

Thanks again to you and the other posters on one of the best trading boards on Ihub. (It’s nice to think the sheep can win one every now and then.)

Jay