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Looks prudent. Essentially maintenance capital spending plus a small amount for risky projects. Guyana would be in that category until they can pin down the cost/reserves.
ISRG/TRXC - German marketing partner for trxc seems to be having some success placing systems in eastern EU countries. BOWA's coverage area shown in link. They have an automotive division (sensors) and a medical division (lap instruments).
https://bowa-medical.com/index.php/en/bowaworldwide.html
vktx - Coincides with Zacks analyst note yesterday that ALT elevation was not an issue from his POV.
http://s1.q4cdn.com/460208960/files/News/2018/Jan-24-2018_VKTX_Bautz.pdf
ISRG earnings CC transcript. Offers commentary on market conditions by region, replacement cycle, system retirements and R&D. Short term R&D focus on imaging and visualization. Longer term AI, probably in anticipation of VERB -- hard to do without haptics IMO. Firing on all cylinders and not too worried about competition IMO. One sell side analyst (not Stifel) guessing that TRXC sells 16 systems this year. That's less than ISRG retire in a quarter.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4140331-intuitive-surgicals-isrg-ceo-gary-guthart-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
The strangeness continues on ICPT weeklies. IMO the only explanation is that there is some finite probability of a BO assuming that there are no imminent positive surprises on the NASH front. eg. options is pricing in 10% prob of hitting $80(+25%) or $57(-10%) in 8 days and it is pretty much a step change time wise with normal time decay beyond that. Seriously? I small fed the bids that expire today. What are your thoughts re BO possibilities? They raised a lot of money last year if recollection serves.
NVS Entresto - It is clearly better for the patients further along the NYHA heart failure scale relative to entrenched generic ACE inhibitors. Many cardiologist will stick with enalapril because HF is a slow progression disease so why switch at an incremental cost of $4K/yr. It is a quality of life question for HF patients, ie how long do they wait? how low of an ejection fraction can they live with? The management of HF patients is still very archaic, eg some docs are still regularly using amiodarone, digoxin etc.. NVS underestimated the stickiness of inferior drugs and time scale of adoption.
MYOK will face the same issues even if their molecules are proven to be useful. I have doubts on their first molecule.
Do you think the grocery workers union feel threatened by the new format stores being test marketed by AMZN? I think it is odd that all these tweets start getting attention all of a sudden. My local WF have no issues at all, not that I shop there, Trader's Joe is my fav.
Tesla's battery storage performance in south Australia amidst heat wave. I have been watching the Australian Open on and off the past week and it has been sizzling during some of the matches. 2017 third hottest year on record after 2015 and 2016 which were el Nino years.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-moves-from-show-boating-to-money-making-93955/
Any thoughts on potential safety issue with all FXR's?
Journal article from almost a year ago.
http://www.journal-of-hepatology.eu/article/S0168-8278(17)30062-4/pdf
Agree that it is just a normal size adjustment. There are some business units at majors undergoing 30% reductions that I heard of recently, probably in preparation for M&A or just M in the specific region.
Airbnb for electricity via block chain.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/15/how-a-street-in-brooklyn-is-changing-the-energy-grid-215268
ISRG had a monopoly and still the 800lb gorilla in the conversion of general surgeons to MIS. TRXC have some overlap with Da Vinci but it is based upon laparoscopic hand motion. (I know that is only software but it matters) and will address a large lap market that ISRG has not been able to switch over to robotics. IMO it's smart for Pope to go after the segment that ISRG couldn't or didn't want to penetrate because lap economics was a challenge that Da Vinci could and would not address.
Single port systems like sport and surgibot will have to compete against Da Vinci SP. IMO ISRG will win that battle whether the former are junk or not. They can try to challenge from the low end like China with the surgibot. Titan still has a lot work ahead to improve camera design and much more financing needs just to get to the clinical testing stage. TRXC has plenty of cash for now to get sales going.
They shipped 216 systems. IDK even about their lease arrangements to comment on the stickiness of those systems.
RE - urology
TRXC has not submitted an indication for urology and it is ISRG dominated. ISRG preliminary results announcement revealed that they submitted 510K clearance of Da Vinci SP (single port) for urology. ISRG will continue to dominate urology and also make it difficult for others that have similar single port surgical systems (Surgibot and SPORT), as Da Vinci SP will no doubt be tested off label for other abdominal surgeries.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=122359&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2325993
Updated numbers from iSRG - a juggernaut, prior to JPM tomorrow. TRXC gave their presentation Monday afternoon. Basically the same info as provided at Stifel in November - a few sales (one Florida) at early stages. USA procedures started in Florida this month.
ISRG
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=122359&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2325993
TRXC
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-29PLRN/5841008966x0x968141/9D27555B-4441-477C-9CFF-F52EA663B22E/CORRECTED_2018_JP_Morgan_final_1.6.compressed.pdf
Didn't take long. Destin Dome off the table because of Florida politics. The prospects there are way offshore and close to existing infrastructure and IMO, the additional incremental environmental risks are de minimis. Now all that's left is picked over GOM, gas off the east coast and heavy oil off the west coast.
RE Senhance compared to SPORT, not even in the same ballpark.
The TITXF SPORT white paper was not positive at all when you take into account that the company paid a handsome consulting fee. The doctor used polite language to described the shortcomings of the camera and the limited range of motion of the arms. In plain english, SPORT is a piece of CRAP in its current state of design.
The same place that wrote that white paper decided to buy a Senhance for real surgeries in addition to the one in the robotics training center. They will write a paper about it once they have done enough cases to report. Those cases started this year. We shall see what they have to say in a few months.
What's your best guess wrt FTC review timeline? TIA
IMO this will flame out. Perhaps Destin Dome can attract serious bids, and a couple of other places. That's about it. Lots of noise about nothing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-01-05/trump-offshore-oil-drilling-plan-will-drillers-really-dive-in
OT- Upton Sinclair's world still exist. The fines are laughable and even the public shaming releases are being loosened. The decision to deregulate the stopping of machines while cleaning is jaw dropping. Yup there is a lot more things to let industry self regulate.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-12-29/america-s-worst-graveyard-shift-is-grinding-up-workers
AKAO - Since you are a Duggan fan, you may want to check out his purchase receipts. I have some and just found out today that he is an activist. Company PR's positive P1 data today on C-scape with not much reaction. PDUFA date expected in late Q2 on plazomicin.
http://investors.achaogen.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=921895-17-2833&cik=1301501
This is the stuff in the public domain. You will never hear about the close calls and the settlements in years prior.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/13/business/energy-environment/13bprisk.html
The regs were mainly to prevent the type of John Browne'ish culture that BP was running, walking the line on safety for the sake of profit. There will always be that tension in all economic activities. Sometimes, those things have costs for society and taxpayers at large. If everybody were ethical, there will be no need for lawyers and regulations, ever.
IMO the regulations roll back will not do much. The DWH blow out was all about BP cutting corners on cement job and NOT running CBL. Having a third party contractor checking to make sure blow out preventers works as designed doesn't add much cost compared to $500K day rates. Will BP go back to being the "old" BP and will other companies (eg. CVX, XOM, COP) that never cut corners decide all of a sudden to start cutting corners because Trump winks? I doubt it very much. Obama era chemical disclosure rules never slowed fracking, it took off instead. The only thing that slowed fracking were the Oklahoma earthquakes and that was only regional. Oil price and the ability to hedge the downside will dictate for frackers.
Hope you were able to take advantage. IYO do the implications justify the size of the reaction?
ICPT (-6%) Strange delayed reaction to an 24 hr old item. Company did not issue PR about this. I fed call buyers once again on the weird phenomena of showing bids way above share price on expiration date.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/this-biotech-stock-just-pushed-back-a-key-trial-until-early-2018/
Mapping long term projects in the arctic.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-economic-arctic/
Following November 2017 statement from association of lap surgeons of greater Britain and Ireland regarding the use of robotics adds considerable context to the conversation regarding the merits/demerits of ISRG platform vs TRXC platform.
https://gmcancerorguk.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/robotic-statement-on-als-letterhead.pdf
I remember the extrapolations from the first chart on the left well. From internal company projections, 120 million barrels by now. And then I looked at the mega ME field data when water was starting to hit the big wells at Burgan (the one the Hussien lit on fire). There was just no way it was going to happen. Still no way. now for a different reason. I learned early that the inhouse economic teams residing in most majors to be a waste of resources. Only the crude and gas hedgers/traders were worth their money.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-22/why-the-prospect-of-peak-oil-is-hotly-debated-quicktake-q-a
ISRG has world wide numbers in their most recent downloadable investor presentation. It comes out to around 4 procedures per day per system or extrapolate to around 860K procedures for 2017. Their release of a "cheaper" Da Vinci X model seems to have bumped the adoption rate up recently. It may not be a bad idea for them to aim for zero margins for system sales and just collect on the high margin instruments. Looks like they are going after the ENT surgery market with Da Vinci SP and lung biopsy market with Fosun JV via flexible catheter Latter items seem like roundoff error distractions.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=122359&p=irol-irhome
TRXC has last year's numbers from US and EU in their Stifel slides and they put it around 600K procedures. Stifel slides also have macro picture on abdominal surgery procedures that they are going after. Seems consistent with ISRG numbers.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-29PLRN/5738432375x0x964120/A22172D2-BE4D-4A6E-8E9D-83B16F643272/2017-11-14_Stifel_FINAL.pdf
~100% of abdominal robotic procedures in the clinics. I think that is roughly around 700K Da Vinci procedures annually currently, off the top of my head. So I will get the numbers for you in a separate post in a couple of days.
ISRG et al - Robotic assisted surgeries commentary link. It will take a year of sales data to see if the space expands and/or if any market share changes occur. I expect ISRG domination to continue where they dominate now so no "shakeup" for now. I hold TRXC because of utilization data and reviews from busy EU centers using currently cleared instruments. I would like to hear from American surgeons but that will take time and a few hundred cases as in EU before we get reports back.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/2018-could-see-a-robotic-surgery-shakeup?
Some themes will take many years to play out. The most energy intensive economic activities are O&G both upstream and downstream, and mining. Lots of shifting pieces.
ICPT - There it is again. This time at $65. Weird and I fed it.
Lets mark the EV and share prices down and revisit this in a year.
In USD
TMD EV ~150M SP 0.30
TRXC EV ~290M SP 1.92
These are the 2 companies that share the same posters so I assume that you will love to keep score.
I have no further interest in TITXF as a long play until share prices change or until they get clinical usage started. Until next year.
I can't find the Columbia licensing agreement in Titan's Sedar filings other than a brief mention in interim and annual reports from 2012 and YOU were the one that posted the 450M warrants.
We do have filings showing minimum ~320M shrs outstanding plus minimum 180M warrants for a total of minimum 500M shrs potentially, as of September prospectus. So Titan has a quite a big market cap already as of September offering for a device company in animal testing. And there will have to be more financing done to gather the data needed for regulatory submittal. I fail to see the bullish point of view here at current share price.
The licensing agreement with Columbia/NYU must be confidential since there is no listing of Columbia warrants in either company spreadsheet or Sedar. Warrants have been offered with anti-dilution clause so it that was the case with Columbia (that they even included warrants in addition to royalties), then the numbers and exercise price would adjust with dilution.
It could be that ISRG doesn't want to disrupt their highly profitable razor and blade multiarmed platform model. Either that or surgeons don't see their SP as advantages to using articulated 5 mm tool set through a single trocar. Only ISRG execs know. TRXC will be down to 2.7 mm soon and articulation will be available in EU next year according to CEO.
Titan is still vapor ware for practical purposes unless you count chicken breasts and pigs.
"My sources say that Columbia was offered 450 million 0.10 warrants with a 2030 expiry in exchange"
Was there a Sedar filing about this? Thx.
Da Vinci single port was FDA cleared in 2014.