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i hate the flavor of curry!
that's wavoid wording Snack
yes i read the article -- i posted it. the article actually noted that according to a C/Net article, Dell & HP may use NSM I/O technology.
wavoids magically turn that into will use the technology.
misc:
nope, not smoking anything.
nope, don't own any wavx.
nope, not looking to buy it.
my oft stated precursors to ever owning wavx again have not been established & there is presently no publicly available indication that i'm aware of, which suggests those items turning in favor of owning it.
i am able to see certain inklings that Wave might begin to realize some revs, but it is nowhere near the scope of the projected revs that were part of the "ubiquity" slogan of prior biz models & IMO it is much more niche than world dominion.
& it doesn't change a panoply of other adverse issues that IMO are ignored too often by too many.
IMO Wave might be poised to muddle along, but cash flow positive is years away (if ever) despite the proclamations & recants of breakeven steven.
despite the various trading opportunities which may or may not exist w/wavx, the "recipe for $0.50" still exists IMO & delisting is a far bigger fundamental business issue than some here will ever acknowledge.
anyway, my prior post should indicate to some that i do have the ability to see the other side of the story, though it doesn't contain the magnitude IMO that it does in others' opinions.
yeah shute, we disagree on a great many things, including the use of a preposition at the end of a sentence!
ciao!
sorta positive Wave press mention...
http://www.govtech.net/magazine/channel_story.php?channel=4&id=91528
that's fine awk
you accuse me of spreading false info
you attack anyone who disagrees w/yer hype
& yet somehow you have the temerity to claim exclusivity to civility.
i *do* enjoy yer posts (& have sooooo many of them backed up on CD-rom .
that's rich awk!
just trying to keep some civility in the dialog.
btw, have all the doubts been removed yet?
btw2, what is "disingenious"?
didn't post an AH quote, posted the closing NASD quote.
see whatever dots you want to see -- it's the wavoid way!
JMO!
yes there is a difference.
the wavx closing bid according to my data provider was $0.99.
SO, would you say that Wave's most recent 8-K left out a smidge of material info?
btw, how would you know what i look like?
ask Snack.
it doesn't matter?
oh... okay.
http://www.nasdaq.com/about/FAQsContinued.stm#1
sorry man, but you wouldn't wanna spread false info about wavx.
would you?
edit: no.
all that matters for NASD delisting purposes is the closing bid price...
Closing price NASDAQ NM
September 21, 2004 03:59 PM ET
WAVE SYSTEMS CORP CL A WAVX Stock
Last Price 1.01
Bid (size) 0.99 (x2,500)
Ask (size)1.00 (x500)
Volume 1,786,394
awk -
"...on a short term basis we think we can reach the point where the company gets to cash flow breakeven sometime in 2004."
[snip]
So, the company now has access to the resources that we need in order to operate. The recent exercise of options has brought in additional cash was something that really helped to strengthen our balance sheet. We continue to work towards strengthening the overall company, and the ultimate way to do that is to drive the revenue base so this company reaches a cash flow break even position. And we think that's very achievable in 2004."
Steven K. Sprague
CEO Wave Systems
August 14, 2003
2Q 2003 conference call
http://www.unclever.com
not arguing, just asking a few Qs
which you are apparently a_voiding IMO.
an apt quote for such an auspicious occasion Unc!
did they release some advance info about the "going concern" PR at the SHM that was not reported?
i musta missed that.
did you receive any material non-public information & then sell based on that info ahead of its public dissemination?
it seems somewhat possible based on your posts from that timeframe.
100% JMO
typical wavoid tactic
please answer my questions first & thereafter i will gladly give you the return courtesy of an answer to your subsequent question.
1) how did you know "bad news" was coming?
2) what was your advance source of that "bad news"?
3) why in the world did you buy back the position, AND at a higher price than you sold (if i recall correctly)?!?
Beware the Naked Man Who Offers You His Shirt
- Harvey Mackay
prolly one each for cpa, Thig & HhH!
LOL.
why would i bother?
that little news spike was an obvious sell & i don't feel any obligation to point that out to you or anyone else. of course, wavoids were "certain" that there would be some incredible PRs coming out on the heels of the STM PR & held the shares for just another $0.10 or SO.
BTW, wasn't it you who unloaded @ a buck prior to the "going concern" PR?
didn't you post frequently in the days just before that PR that some "bad news" was coming & you had to protect yourself & your family?
1) how did you know "bad news" was coming?
2) what was your advance source of that "bad news"?
3) why in the world did you buy back the position, AND at a higher price than you sold (if i recall correctly)?!?
good luck dude.
SO, what do you make of all those big blocks being sold?
it isn't me & i sorta doubt it's cpa, Thig or HhH.
wonder who would possibly want to sell wavx at this point, especially when every PC manufactured will have a TPM in just 2 Qs from now?!?
it's unthinkable!
http://139.142.147.22/GifChartEngine.dll?interval_day=6&cus=0&indexSymbol=&securityType=...
strong bid support on island
50K @ $0.03
100K @ $0.02
somebody must know something!
http://data.island.com/ds/tools/bookviewer/htmlbook.jsp?STOCK=wavx
SO, when is that again?!?
"i just wonder if your great concern for balance will still be here when we are celebrating in vegas."
the NASD will be soon sending Wave an invitation to a much different affair.
you'll be able to read all about it soon when Wave issues the PR.
as PJS used to sign his posts on RB,
Cheers!
you wrote: "I do agree that more announcements of the type we have already seen will have diminishing returns."
that's one way of stating it.
There are only a handful of wavoids that use, or even own any of Wave's stuff (prolly a few more have an old haup card).
More voids prolly have a "Back on the Nasdaq" T-Shirt than have bought any Wave stuff.
Wave hasn't even stated whether Wave uses Wave's stuff yet.
Wave did $2k per month last Q.
Even if they "start" selling something (anything!) to someone, someday soon, the days of the "internet toll booth" & the "e-commerce cash register" are over irrespective of how many flags SKS plants IMO.
Wave will be lucky to survive & carve out a tiny niche IMO.
IMO wavoids will be lucky if ST Micro, NSM, AMD, INTC, IBM, or somebody, anybody offered $2 per share.
IMO $150M or so is an extremely fair price for the remnants of that "e-commerce cash register."
fortune cookie joke free post
IMO things are not very good IMO
PS Sneerleaders - that is funny!
already experienced wavx on OTCBB.
if delisting created an oppty to short it (post-R/S), that might be something worth getting excited about.
a wavoid member of the Bar willing to defend this nonsense?
any names (or numbers) come to mind?
have a GREAT(stuff) weekend!
orda - NASD deathpool is well underway.
today was the 29th (of 30) consecutive trading days where the closing bid was in the pennies.
monday seals the deal & an NASD delisting notice will be delivered to Lee next week. Wave will then have to juice the closing bid above a buck for ten consecutive trading sessions (during the next 90 calendar days) in order to a_void the removal of wavx from the nasdaq.
of course, the NASD has other metrics by which they can delist wavx immediately (e.g. market cap), though i suspect that Wave will appeal to NASD w/some song & dance to stay the effect of going to the bulletin board. howiever, wavx was already delisted once before & now has SO much baggage that i suspect any appeal would fall on deaf & unsympathetic ears ("fool me once, shame on you...")
nevertheless, Wave has a serious cash burn gluttony problem & a voracious appetite for funds (hey, non-performance related guaranteed bonuses ain't free!) & toss in $100K here, and a $100K there for GreatStuff like "offices" near the Atlantic coast in "strategic" locales such as Orvault France & you have a severely bloated SG&A.
as such, Wave will likely continue to float regular deals w/sharks in the Caymans, Bahamas, BWI & BVI, etc. in order to keep the trough full of the green they need.
SO, you have an almost guaranteed constant sell-side pressure for months & months & months to come (much of it from Wave itself!) & the most recent Q rev was $6K, which if anything near constant in future Qs, means an almost 100% burn as it relates to all expenses (no rev offset).
back to the sharks for a minute... these are not the kool-aidkinda krew. they will short wavx w/impugnity & by virtue of the Berlin listing, they can naked short it off-shore (&/or even use US MMs - maybe BRUT?) & literally print counterfeit electronic shares to their avaricious delight.
SO, now you have Wave as a needy seller of paper burning millions every Q (w/a stated need to ramp costs in future Qs per SKS), compounded by the activities of the off-shore buyers as two major market forces that preclude any pps increase.
now add in the fact that Wave has a lengthy history of unsubstantiated fluff that either is never heard from again, or, generates little or nothing rev-wise. that results in the yawn effect on any news you have been witnessing the last few months.
now add the SEC investigation. that forces Wave to be much more cautious (presumably) about anything they disseminate publicly (notwithstanding certain void elders earlier curious statements from today) & certainly adds to the cost structure to some extent.
now throw in a baker's dozen of civil claims & the various well-funded C/A firms that smell blood in the water. legal fees cost Wave approx. $290K last Q alone & the cases haven't even really begun rolling.
now let's suppose that Wave does settle the various claims. IMO that won't get done for less than $5M & also IMO it may involve another issuance of shares as partial consideration. O/S will quickly be pushing up against the recently increased A/S.
now add in the fact that the TC uptake is incredibly more tepid than any void will publicly admit & Wave's entire rev-generating biz model depends specifically upon TPMs in high volume deployment (tens of millions of units per year, minimum).
add to that the fact that MSFT is taking their sweet time developing an OS which compels the use of any TPM (aka SSC in softeespeak) & the anticipated release dates being pushed out into 2007 (or 2008 more likely, based on MSFT's long vaporware history).
add to that the stated fact that Wave's newest iteration of licensing requires Wave to push through much of their own sales (presumably the higher margin recurring rev services) using their own marketing coin.
add to that the near certainty that Wave will be receiving the NASD delist notice next week (which further dampens any buy-side interest).
add to that the fact that wavx has been treading water & has recently been doing almost neglible volume which brings w/it consecutive downticks any time any seller of any real size wants out.
add to that the number of voids' "trading shares" that are now looking for an exit after the recent conference hype landed w/a big thud. lots & lots of so-called "trading shares" looking for the exit will cap any future rally, compounded by off-shore sharks shorting to lock in ROI gains, etc.
add to that the minority of voids who are likely ready to bail on wavx once & for all (like howardjoel did recently only to foolishly return IMO) & all it'll take once in a while is for one or two voids w/decent sized so-called "core" positions looking to cut their losses to put major pressure on the ask (depending on how prudently they break up the position/s for sale).
you now have a recipe for $0.50 or lower.
what other methods does Wave have available to get the pps up above a buck?
& don't forget, the institutional holders are most likely prohibited from holding delisted securities, so now you have another heavy sell-side pressure if they don't keep wavx on the Naz -- again in a meager volume trend.
a Reverse Split seems to be the only viable option to keep wavx listed IMO (& it reduces the O/S, which keeps Wave from having to get you to approve another A/S increase).
you may post in rebuttal that there are additional INTC MBs, etc., NSM is coming (someday), ST Micro, etc., etc.
problem w/those "solutions" is that the INTC & IBM PRs that started this final spiral downward are now over a year old & now we're back to $6K in Q revs problem.
problem is w/any R/S, it is only a quick fix & there are retailers out there just waiting to short wavx, on top of the likely off-shore stuff already unfolding.
it will literally take a miracle to save Wave...
the Juggler simply can't keep all those balls in the air indefinitely.
& incidentally, it is the wavoid block of shares that is one of Wave's few strengths. prolly > 20M shares being held until pried from the cold dead hands of their owners that actually slows down the spiral a little.
100% JMO.
you are SO very welcome Jay
as a longtime loyal void, what are the odds (IYO) that the Lee braintrust will engineer something to boost it above a buck monday?
or in the alternative, what are the odds that they will do a reverse split?
personally i prefer the latter because if they juice it above $5 w/an R/S, i intend to short wavx.
NAS_D-day countdown began 29 days ago...
one more day left to try to PUMP it to a buck bid.
who in their right mind would buy a stock that was on the cusp of a delisting notice?
sure don't miss owning wavx!
Posted by: Snackman
In reply to: None
Date:7/23/2003 2:53:58 PM
Post #of 52662
To All,
Last night we had a private room at a great restaurant in San Francisco. Steven talked to us for four hours. This was a small group of investors, about 9 to be exact. Other than Barge, me and XAM, the others do not post on the boards.
These are only my impressions and I will gladly welcome corrections from XAM and Barge.
I sat next to Steven and Barge was on the other side of him. I could not get in a word edgewise because Barge kept talking to Steven about WEB Services. Actually this is a joke.
I got in a lot of questions as did XAM and Barge. In four hours a lot can be discussed. I keep hammering him on finances and here is my impression on what he said.
He said that a SP investment is probably not going to happen. The reasons given were that it is very difficult for a company to invest in a Public company. They have guidelines, committees and a lot of bureaucracy involved with it comes to investing in public companies. Now, if we were a private company, the deal would be much easier to do. I don’t think it is going to happen but would be surprised and happy if it did.
He admitted that we probably need between 4-5 million dollars, in the short term, to take us where enough revenues will kick in satisfy our burn rate, which by the way, is coming down as fast as they can manage it. His goal right now is to get that short-term money without having any dilution, Zero. In order to do that he needs to get the money from the sale of assets. I got the impression that sale SOL is the best possibility and that other things are in the works such as finding a buyer for our SSP stock. He would love to see SSP bought out. He mentioned that with our holdings, anyone of the other major holders of the stock could take over the company if they so desired. We are the swing stockholders of SSP stock that could make the deal happen. He said we still have good relationships with SSP.
I asked him about Maximus and DoD. He was give permission to show us a slide where it listed companies that were able to do business with the Govt. Unless you are on this list it is not possible. The list was headed by Northrop Grumman and many other names you would recognize. These companies hope to have a plan for security by April 2004. That is the first deadline they imposed on themselves. (I hope I have this right). We were right in the middle of only about 10 companies.
Back to financing. I got the impression that he is not worried about raising funds before October. I asked him why we need more money now when we were told that the last funding should carry us to the end of the year with projected revenues. He said some of the deployment by the OEMs is being pushed into Q1 of 2004, NOT ALL, but some. But on the bright side, he expects to be shipping 1 million units a month next year.
There will be MANY PC OEM’s deploying our Tech in the box before the end of the year. The numbers will really gear up in 2004.
Infinion and National are prime sellers and he mentioned STMicro as a strong contender to be coming on board.
I told him some insider buying would go along way with regards to the moral of the stockholders and to the street. He said that some insiders have been trying to buy for the last four months but their lawyers have not let them do it because with material news coming out it would look like they bought on inside information.
I got the impression that we will get an announcement next week. He said we would get one more than a week from now and less than 6 months. I would bet a lot of money on next Wednesday or Thursday. I do not know how good it will be but I believe we will get something. I think the announcement could be regarding SOL but that’s just my guess.
He said he was in the Bay area to work with a company that is working with HP on touch computer screens for voting. Barge and I did not buy this explanation as to why he was in California. We think there were other reasons but he could not talk about it. Again, that’s just Barges' and my opinion.
He reiterated we are the glue that holds TCG together. Without Wave there would be no TCG. He says the others do not understand what Wave has developed. They are in the dark as to what is needed and what we have. He felt as soon as HP deployed enough units along with IBM that all the others will fall into place. The reason he said they don’t understand it is because the box makers are only selling boxes and they don’t understand what is inside to make them work. They are only interested how much each screw costs. He seemed very confident we have begun the rollout and that it will only increase as time goes on to the tune of a million units a month next year. I believe he said the only difference between a trusted computer and one that is not, is about $25.00. Which one would you buy?
Oh yes, two more things. We talked about putting a shareholder on the BOD. There are positives and negatives. The positive is that it would make a great story in the Wall Street Journal and the negative is that it would not play well with institutions and major partners.
NEC. Seems FINREAD is a long way off and we have the only working unit. The Banks are not moving fast enough in this direction. However, he believes NEC will be interested in TCG though out the area they service and that this will happen before FINREAD.
The Compac/HP deal with Israel is still there but in limbo due to EDS. I got the impression it will happen but the time line is unknown by everyone.
As I keep trying to end this post another thought came up. There is no way Wave will be bought out now at this stage of their development. A buyout possibility will only occur after millions have been deployed and we are running cash positive. I totally agree with this assessment. Again, the POSSIBILITY will be there at that point in time, it does not meen it will happen then or ever.
As Barge and I drove round trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco and did not get home until 5:00 A.M., I am sure that I will remember more things when I wake up and will put them up.
I will say this. My son was there, and he had never heard Steven speak. He is 31 years old and owns a lot of Wave, for better or for worse. He told me, and this was unsolicited, that if he did not own Wave, he would go out and buy it the next day after listen to Steven for four hours last night.
That’s all for now.
Snackman
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1239645
Posted by: Snackman
In reply to: None
Date:2/21/2004 2:40:14 AM
Post #of 52661
I sent the following in an e-mail to Barge. I also sent it to some long investors as a blind copy. I wanted certain people to see what I wrote to Barge. The reason I did it this way is because I did not want to make this public, where all the bashers could jump on barge, but yet I wanted certain longs to see it.
Barge asked me to post it verbatum. As per his request, here it is.
Snackman
-------------------------------
Barge my friend,
You probably posted yourself out of ever having another meal with SKS.
I thought you were a very smart person but after reading your post I am appalled.
We have what, 8 or 9 lawsuits filed against Wave and you print: “But at one point I believe he inadvertently revealed too much. And what he revealed I will keep to myself”.
What the hell were you thinking, or were you thinking?
That was the dumbest thing you have ever posted.
Then you said: “He replied that there good reasons why WAVE had chosen not to underscore many of their strengths at this point in time”
Don’t you know that anything material has to be reported and you may have caused great harm by posting this?
And we are trying to say that management is 1st class and you write this: “I have little doubt that he reads this Board on a daily basis. He dropped some phrases in the conversation that I believe he could have only picked up by reading the board”
That was just dumb.
All in all I believe you will never share another meal with Steven after he reads your post and in fact, you may have ruined it for anyone ever sharing a meal with him.
WAY TO GO BIG GUY. Stupid is as stupid is I guess.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2427461
are you aware of Regulation FD?
where is the 8K that discloses what you claim to already "know"?
FF - I just don't see it happening.
$0.05 - $0.20, that is.
Moneyman -- were you aware that there is just under $900K in C/D debt already in default? The most recent filing says so, but it doesn't say when it went into default, or what extra costs go with that default.
$900K (default) divided by $0.0025 = 360M shares.
And $0.0025 doesn't even reflect whatever discount to market comes with those defaulted C/D loans.
You post that the MAX O/S for C/D shares issued in 2004 will be 800M? Just to get out of the defaulted C/D debt will take it well over 900M.
Your theories just don't make any sense.
Recently you were hyping about a merger w/Cedric Kushner Enterprises. Do you perform any DD before you start posting?
You wanna see WNMI merge with this company?
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/lr18638.htm
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/comp18638.htm
Couple Qs for you Moneyman340
---------------------------------
Q: What is WNMI's A/S?
A: 2B
---------------------------------
Q: What is WNMI's O/S?
A: 549M
---------------------------------
Q: What is 2B minus 549M?
A: 1,551,000,000
---------------------------------
Q: What is $4,500,000 (debt) divided by $0.0025 per share?
A: 1,800,000,000.
---------------------------------
Q: What is 1,551,000,000 minus 1,800,000,000?
A: -249M
---------------------------------
Are you the same 23 year old newbie that has been pump posting under the moniker "Jody Haynes" all over Yahoo?
---------------------------------
Are you the same "Moneyman340" on RB who posts that WNMI won't be using any shares for C/Ds?
---------------------------------
Do you really believe the stuff you write?
usually a little pricey by the sea...
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?ovi=1&zoom=3&mapdata=IdYv7LHke6xjglNo2zAX4nIOOlni%2bx2c...
it really looks like a swell town:
http://www.mairie-orvault.fr
& of course, Wave has generated significant shareholder value from this "office" & will continue to do SO for at least another 3 years @ $8K per month.
right?
BigT re Failed Launches:
"It was evident to many of us at the time that most of the items on your list were never going to amount to anything."
was this clarity-of-hindsight observation ever made in real time? if so, it was presumably done via the void grapevine b/c i surely don't remember the elders publicly espousing this "never going to amount to anything" theory.
"...there were some very promising Wave initiatives that ended up going nowhere. In addition to NEC and Puerto Rico, I would add EDS and the Israeli military."
the fact that Wave never publicly stated anything of substance regarding any of these three initiatives suggests IMO that they have been more "smoke & mirrors" vaporware than viable skunkworks (although SKS did seem incredibly confident that the $21M Q was achievable & stated SO at the risk of alienating the one firm (Pacific Growth Equities) that provided coverage).
did think the MSFT-SpragueXcess thing PRed in fall of 2000 had a chance to get incorporated in a future MS product, but that too seems to have whithered on the vine.
speaking of Turkey, do you know if Wave generated any big Olympic-related revs?
"They may have failed in part because of mistakes by Wave and its partners. But I think they mostly failed because the timetable for introduction of Trusted Computing turned out to be slower and more incremental than most knowledgeable observors anticipated."
had Wave gone after even a few base hits along the way, instead of always swinging for the fence, the fundamentals wouldn't likely be SO awful right now & maybe they woulda been in a position to generate revs AND provide proof of concept instead of giveaways (or near giveaways) like GolfSpan, YES Network & DeanTV.
plenty of people had less than wild-eyed beliefs about the take-up rate of TC, but too many (here) just saw the hockey stick & the nouveau riches.
it would seem that a company that truly would have been out of business years ago, but for its public equity aspects, (IMO) shoulda developed solid contingency plans for such a delayed acceptance rate, especially when SO beholden to the imprimatur of the SO-called "gorillas" as an element of the business model.
"But Trusted Computing is coming, and all the naysayers you can find will not be able to ultimately contradict the obvious value it brings with it. There was a point along the way when Wave might have been marginalized, when Microsoft made decisions which effectively assured that OEMs would select less capable TPMs instead of Embassy."
"...all the naysayers i can find..."?!?
never disputed the advent of TC BigT, just the recklessly hypothesized acceptance curve projections tossed around as if certainty. voids consistently opined an unrealistic dreamers' view which was skewed (by greed?) & ignored the fact that it would take years & years & years longer & that Wave would not be in a position to capitalize on the opportunity when it was truly ripe.
guess we have different views about what "marginalized" means. IMO Wave's irrepressible swinging for the fences approach cost them dearly & forced them to abandon a 14 year pursuit of client-side hardware & instead attempt to fill a narrowing niche which has all the signs of collapsing margins that are a galaxy away from the "cash register" business model that was being sold by mgmt during the bubble.
"Now the main thing that remains unknown is whether Wave can translate its first mover status into meaningful revenues before competition appears."
IMO Wave has been forced to share SO much IP & "know-how" over the years in order to get a seat @ the table, that any real proprietary advantage that once existed is now neglible IMO.
Wave's R&D spending has tanked over the last few years & Wave is apparently not actively developing new tech, their staff has been slashed & there are literally no resources to allocate to anything other than remaining a "going concern." that is a recipe for disaster IMO & completely eliminates any chance to be a third-party service provider for trusted services IMO.
meanwhile Wave is committed to lease an "office" in Orvault, France until 2007 or so @ something like $100K per year or some such ridiculous figure, etc., etc., ETC.
their need to affiliate w/Liberty Alliance, TCPA (& then TCG, etc.) & w/it the RAND licensing scheme may well have created the advent of TC (thus Snack's "June is ours" proclamation), but it also cost Wave what you generously call "first mover" status. It remains entirely possible that dozens of firms are (or already have) developed similar functions & can incorporate them as a loss-leader in TC offerings.
$6K in Q revs a year after the INTC/IBM PRs?
if i held wavx, i'd be very hauppy exchanging that paper for some INTC or MSFT shares & would accept $2 per wavx share as fair consideration. sorta doubt mgmt would ever accept such an offer though (unless there was no other option IMO) b/c it would end the Sprague spending spree...
have a good weekend,
SPIN
PS much like the morphed meaning of "phishing" (& Anastasio's presumed disappointment with the term's new use), didya ever think when you coined the term "wavoids" that it would later be used as a prejorative on p. 1 of the NYT biz section?
what were the results (if any) of the purported Puerto Rican health system technology trial hinted at by Wave a few years ago?
did it end in similar fashion as the HAUP boards, ENVOY, MyPublish, GreatStuff, TheGlobe.com, French banking & NEC trials?
BTW, how is this article even remotely relevant to Wave Systems?
seems far better suited for the so-called Trusted Computing board IMO...