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Detailed discussion regarding voting on cUTI and BSI.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/896116#vp_2
"Several panel members expressed regret about having to vote against plazomicin for this indication on the basis of the phase 3 trial."
Any Q and comments regarding FDA review?
AKAO - somebody fished for my 15 puts (May/June roll) and they rolled deeper and sooner than I thought possible given yesterday's drop. Somebody is bullish about a sustained rebound and I have widened the spreads on my remainder. May cancel my roll of the 12.5s completely.
NVS does not participate in SURF's cd47 program. SURF is repeating the experiments that TRIL has been conducting. WRT NVS collaboration on SURF's cd73, the undiscounted value will depend on probability of success you want to assume. Roughing that suggest about ~40 cents/shr per probability point assuming constant share count but SURF also loses on upside if successful with cd73 program. Not enough to explain the difference in EV.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1718108/000119312518094098/d471930ds1.htm
Seems like the shorts are having the meltdown wrt conference call and muted reaction. Q1 summary.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/6244024764x0x979026/44C49236-1FC2-4FD9-80B1-495ED74E4194/TSLA_Update_Letter_2018-1Q.pdf
Have been thinking about that for SURF and TRIL but nothing regarding rebates perhaps going away. What companies benefit most from rebates and no-rebates? Regarding surf/tril, EVs ought to be similar don't you think?
AKAO - thus far, damage has been less than feared as recent lows held. Put premium shriveled on 10 so those will probably expire worthless. I am also short some 12.5 and 15 puts from strangles and will roll those legs. LPAD pathway is only a theory at this point apparently. Market seems to want to handicap BSI labeling.
I did way better than that on Vytorin. 30% lowered LDL and HDL went up also, I believe from the 50s to 60s. No liver issues.
EYPT - Not sure what the sharp rise is about. Sold June 2.5 CCs on my small position.
All companies that I hold shares in need more "dangerous" successes. LOL.
Looking at the Nov contracts, there are no bids above $135/bbl. A penny at 135.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-30/oil-hedge-fund-manager-andurand-says-300-oil-not-impossible
CHV had to drag both XOM and RDS into Gorgon LNG. They would be even in worse shape if they weren't dragged in screaming and kicking. They didn't have a choice after CHV took over Texaco and gained controlling stake with Aussies.
XOM - what happened? I have to look at their production details.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-27/exxon-breaks-off-halliburton-sized-chunk-in-market-value-crash
Most of the CHV crew that worked on the takeover of Mobil are retired now and I am sure their underlings are glad that Exxon interrupted those proceedings and came in as a white knight. Whew ... Yes you heard it here first.
AKAO - ahead of ADCOM meeting next week. Active options trading yesterday, not much yet today. Option players only pricing in a move of ~6 in either direction. I am long some shares and long strangles with a guess that the data is good enough for an up vote.
Related. Ford makes big move departing US sedan market and hedging with EV models. Plate tectonics, accelerated.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-26/what-would-henry-think-ford-is-about-to-abandon-american-sedans
Impressive early adoption substitution numbers for E-Bus. IMO any pain at this point is not felt yet. Give it another year or two.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-buses-are-hurting-the-oil-industry
Farm belt, 6 months before Novermber 6, 2018.
Trump folds faster than a house of cards built with toilet paper. His minions will now head to the Middle Kingdom to honor their emperor.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-20/u-s-grain-ships-change-direction-mid-voyage-after-china-tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-21/u-s-hints-at-a-china-truce-as-world-warns-of-trade-war-threat
Sounds a lot like the Bre-X fairy tale. Same country too. LOL.
If the Chinese are involved, the ROI expectations ought to be set low. ie For the "foreign" entities.
Quite a big drop in battery cost from 2016 to 2017. 23% compared to 7% trend, mostly due to manufacturing efficiency. I didn't think it could be that big without introduction of solid state tech. I have only read the exec summary, first 16 pgs.
https://data.bloomberglp.com/bnef/sites/14/2018/02/Sustainable-Energy-in-America-2018-Factbook.pdf
tsla - regarding CBS interview and elephant in the room missing from discussion.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140066518
Closed my shorts just now.
RE CBS interview - A good interview and PR piece although the elephant in the room was apparently off limits. There were no questions or answers regarding recent autopilot incidents and investigations. I assume that was limitations placed on subject matter. People have pointed out that statistically, autopilot is still safer than without, for the model S and X. What I would like to know is what happens when the statistics is limited to the luxury car segment where the models have automatic collision avoidance, with pedestrians and stationary or moving objects.
A completely different approach towards non GMO crops.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-16/indigo-s-scientists-are-replacing-pesticides-with-bacteria
EM is trying to detract from the feud with NTSB. Getting the autopilot right is critical to achieving hoped for gross margin. Why should buyers pay for it upfront when it is not close to being ready?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-12/tesla-in-open-feud-with-u-s-safety-board-over-crash-probe
What are the players, aside from MNTA, in iVIG market?
NTSB and Tesla and other makers re self-driving.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-11/carmakers-struggle-to-keep-driver-engaged-even-when-on-autopilot
I don't recall the gatherings as anything close to political at all. There would be vigorous discussions about approaches to looking at physics or experiments. SLB benefited a lot particularly SUPRI-D. Many alumni's went on to SLB and a few made it to upper management and some cycled back to academia or opened their own specialty consulting firms.
There was really good wine and cheese, at the Buck House, Monterey Bay aquarium and Carmel. But then that depends on whether you got some Hewlett or Packard, or the size of your support. LOL.
Trucker fears in the information age.
GCEP will probably be the program that survives longer term as the SUPRI programs become less well supported. I enjoyed the interactions and it was a good place to recruit. On a few occasions, the research had direct fit and application with EOR projects. So I think overall, my company a nice return for our financial support.
What programs were being discussed and was that after he returned to Stanford after his DOE stint? I am familiar with the programs prior to his DOE appt. Some of that having to do with sequestration.
RE "Lin"
Lynn is his middle name and what he uses.
RE Oil company position vs foundations positions, no difference wrt science
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chevron-will-stick-to-ipcc-findings-in-landmark-climate-change-trial/
Probably should put that note in context. Priorities change with knowledge gained and scientific advances. Hewlett and Packard were big supporters (still are through their foundations) of Stanford science and engineering schools and that includes their earth sciences dept which included one of the top exploration and petroleum schools in the country. Those were set up a long time ago when there was little thought about climate impact. They spent top money to get guys like Hank Ramey. Almost all the super majors and many national oil companies also put up big bucks for programs. Now that there is data, priorities and funding direction has to change with it. In fact, one of the heirs is married to the former pet eng dept head and top DOE officials. Franklin Orr. Besides the stuff is not cheap to mine and pipe. It is far better for the Canadians to go after their oil shales and they have it.
https://engineering.stanford.edu/about/heroes/david-packard
https://engineering.stanford.edu/about/heroes/william-hewlett
RE "Can you folks share your largest potential energy equity holdings?"
I don't have anything significant other than indirect allocations in indices. IMO they are expensive relative to my past experience because of yield seeking behavior. I remember the good ole days when you got paid 5-7% while waiting for oil prices to recover from cycles. If I were to buy currently, it would have to a reflection of optimism on oil prices going up so someone has to convince me that there will a long term shortage of supply, even if there can be short lived spikes.
If I had the urge to buy something, it would be the shale servicers. The lowest risk being CLB (special core analysis) and more volatile HAL (fracking). Just look at Bahrain, that will keep those two busy for a while. If I am chasing yield, I would look at Gazprom and Lukoil particularly if Russia market craters further. I may do the latter if I think it is irresistibly cheap.
Xi repeats past formulaic promises of market opening and reforms. Perhaps he is hoping Trump/Navarro will fold. Can Xi's China move faster than prior governments, I doubt it unless Trump has high pain tolerance.
Musk has always been dependable so far when it comes to designing, engineering and making things. He has not been dependable when it comes to timing but he is getting better. I can't imagine Detroit doing any better or evening trying. I think the biggest risk for their car business is that NTSB comes back and says your stuff is still experimental so put in front facing camera and perhaps camera facing driver also, and put all that data in the black box when autopilot is engaged, just like uber. It represents a big chunk of their gross margin.
PS. I am a little surprised that there are no available shares to short after last week. I converted my short to another strangle for ~7/sh credit 275/295. IMO the bounce is about done.
That is so true, just like our children. LOL.
Valid stats and good point. For whatever reason, if I were to buy a car with "autopilot", I want my probability of dying in an accident caused by "autopilot" to be zero. Call me unreasonable but that is the way I feel and I imagine there are a significant portion of car owners and riders that will feel the same way.
That was one heck of a rebound and probably an indication that TSLA is not in as much trouble as the bears wish for even if it goes further down from here with the rest of the market. The saga continues as I let the chips fall where they may, outside the strangle. I will cover on downside volatility. I apologise for contaminating this board with short term trading crap.