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Thanks for the update, I took a small position this morning once it fell back. Fridays close looked a little "engineered," for lack of better term. (up strong late on little volume.)
In for 1k at 5.58 so far.
Thanks again and I will check with surf to get his take on burn rate, going back to the markets for financing.
I do like they only have 27 million shares out and the float of just 21 or million. 1.15/share in cash is what I am trying to figure out.....just how far that gets them.....
IMHO that gives them plenty of room to get financing if needed without to great a hit.
Hello Catty, Do you remember if they mentioned their cash burn rate at the conference you attended? Also, I am curious if the 7 that attended were male or female????
Thanks for any help...
Great Post Aiming4, You make good points... I like to witness the following of the masses that have led to some of Cor's peaks, I have been fortunate enough to participate in some, and the fact that there may be more heading our way soon....
If you run a google finance chart on max time frame, you can see the pop to over 7 dollars in 1996, and again in 1995 to 6
+, so it certainly does have a history of popping. Again both runs were relatively short term as cortex always had to find new financing, issuing new shares, warrants, the story goes on....
I think that the 96 spike was the morning I turned on CNBC and there was the Cortex exec sitting with the morning crew live. Back in those days, if my hazy memory serves, it was all about Cortex's advancements in memory retention.. I can't remember how far they got from mice to humans, but just get them on CNBC and watch the fun begin
Few read these boards compared to the overall investing public, although we can move the prices on low volume days quite a bit. But to really get Cor noticed, and now, with so many more compounds possible and I agree that they look great to the investing public at large.
I just don't like holding a lot of stock in any October, and there is a big difference in my mind from 1.70 down to 1.15 or so, which I think is possible. If I am wrong, so be it, and I wish the buyer on the other side of the trade the best, but for every stock that goes down 50%, I have to find another to go up 100% just to break even. Sometimes I just have to take profits.....
hello catty, i must admit that i don't know nearly enough about female sexual dysfunction, but the fact that this company is in phase III for it, and the fact that I think there are more women than men in our country, maybe I better take a crash course asap.
i think the terrm "female viagra" is a pulse button word that could really get this company attention on the cnbc's of the world, and could really get this company a pop should phase iii be successful.
thanks for your posts....
Thanks Aiming4, Others were also correct that I did not make clear the fact that the "restructuring" in IDIX, was not a new partnership deal, but a furthering of an existing deal. My bad that it came across that way, but it was exciting to see it on hold at the open on Friday and I think most that were watching were thinking it was really going to pop.
It is back on my watch list to buy if in fact the income stream from the deal allows it to bring other products further into the pipeline without the need for further financing, a position that COR longs can only dream of at this point. Why they kept the royalty % secret does not bode well however, imho.
I also agree that a "new" bp deal should make great headlines for COR, and I have witnessed many great headlines for COR over the years.... Still I hold, along with some others on this board, that the Bio field in general is a much harder sell these days and I don't think the IND deal, on its own, affects share price much without extensive press coverage.
I think some of the comments about my not understanding Bio investing got my back up a little as well, and I will try to keep those emotions under control.
Jim H. was not the only true free man on these boards. I have struggled at times when I was younger with no health insurance for more than 10 years, so I know something about generics. Now I have no debt, I have a rather generous fixed income stream, and should never have to work another day in my life. Now that I am 80-90% cash I can pick and choose. I certainly make mistakes, but not understanding investing, well, I am not so sure that applies to me, although I am always open to learning more.
Ok, That would not surprise me that I misread some of the situation, but I did own IDIX, and I did sell IDIX on Wed, two days before the announcement, and posted so on Hot-biotechs.
The partnership arrangement will hopefully allow the partner to take over sales of the product and allow IDIX to use those funds to develop new products without any pipes. Could Cor hope for more? I don't think so.
I said the situations were only similar, and Cor's partner would take over an even riskier position developing the drug candidate through phase III, so it would follow that the deal for Cor may not be as good, because of the inherent HUGE risk that phase III trials fail.
Could you expand your comments on my misreading the situation? A private reply would be fine.
Hello Aiming4, Did you happen to follow IDIX these past couple weeks?
They have a product that successfully went through Phase III, began making sales, and were hoping to partner it out and collect the royalty checks.
They announced a BP deal on Friday, the sp had been building from maybe 2.6 to 2.99 up to the announcement.
They get the announcement on Friday, and the share price falls 4%, still under 3 bucks. Granted, the exact numbers of Royalties were not announced in the press release, but THEY GOT THE DEAL, after months of speculation, and the sp went down.
I only point this out because it is not assured that Cortex "Soars" on a BP deal. We all hope so, be we have hoped for a lot in the past.
There are other competitors in the product in the IDIX field, as there are other AD/ADHD products in COR's field.
Many on this board were absolutely sure that Cor's share price would be right back to near 6 dollars, where it was before the clinical hold of CX717 and they bet hard earned money on that event. Once CX717 was released from the hold, as we all know, the share price only got appox half way back, and then only for a very short time frame.
Anyway, I was kind of stunned at that IDIX didn't take off through the roof and get a 20-30% pps pop, BUT IT WENT DOWN on partnering news..... One can argue the differences between IDIX and COR all day long, but there are some similarities, and to me, it certainly proves that even partnering is not a guaranteed slam dunk....
Bio's are in a really tough environment right now, and without some "sexy" or "hip" new slant on attacking a need, then the sales pitches are falling on deaf ears right now, imho....
Great post surf, thanks. I was too chicken to short sonus just before the news as I felt like I found the stock too late in the process. But watching it has me think as well, but I did some trading in it in the .60's, and may yet again as a pure spec/fun play.
For me right now it is all about the cash these little bio's have now, or will have to acquire soon. I got burned by not seeing a pipe coming in a heavy stock I was holding, and while the trade went well, it could have been a blowout to the upside if I had seen it coming......and sold before it hit...
Thanks again......
Hello Aiming4, If the IND is successful, I think a lot of the pop will depend on what kind of press coverage it gets.
If the price stays at this Fridays close, then a low key press release by the company, my guess would be a quick 1.90????
If Motley Fool/Newsletters pick it up then maybe 2.5+???,
If a respected investment house starts covering it, then maybe 4-5???, but I think it's unlikely they will at this stage.
And finally if CNBC, Nightly News, or Bloomburg, picks up the whole amp story, then maybe 7+???
In the last events there are a bunch of warrants out there to hold the price down somewhat, but the masses will come in quick...but I would guess mostly short term traders then the price starts drifting lower
If the IND fails, then again depending on the coverage, so goes the price....but cortex has had such bad press, deserved or not, on the CX717 hold, the recent pipe, and with the failure would come the perception of a less chance of partnering, so the greater chance of yet another dilutive pipe..... then drifts it down like in January 07.
I am wrong on this kind of estimating most of the time, but it was fun to lay it out.....
Take Care and thanks for your hard work keeping this board up and running.
Tonyvanw - Worrying about the Walmart $4 generic appears to me to be overkill.
I think in hindsight I would have to agree that the Wal-Mart news piece, on its own, would have been an overreaction on my part, but I think it was what I needed to take profits, for which I do not apologize for.....
And I have posted before about even if amps were to make it to market, there are many reasons that 4 dollar generics will be used in place of, even a superior product.
I may not have had the overreaction/incentive to sell if the majority of Cortex's thrust right now was in a field without generics....
Anyway, thanks for post and I wish you the best, and very likely will be in Cortex again in a big,(for me,) way.
ps, i still own cor in a couple ira's......hoping for that home run!
alertmeipp, I am certainly not suggesting anyone sell their shares for any reason, just why I sold mine.
As far as not understanding bio investing, well, you have me there... oh, that's right I have still maintained my record of NEVER losing money in Cortex in some 17 or so years. I must be missing something.....
Neuro --I would not want to be depending on FDA flexibility right now.---
This is one of the big reasons I took my profits the other day.
The main reason I held them so long after CX717 was released from the hold was to see if someone went after them. I wanted to be holding a large number of shares to profit from that event should it occur.
My problem this past week was Wal-Marts 4 dollar ad/adhd generics. And then the feeling that should the IND be approved, which while I felt that was likely, I also felt the upside from that event would not be much, just like the bump from CX717 being released from hold was only about half as much as most on the board were thinking.
So there I was, sitting on a lot of profit, waiting for an event, that should it happen, would not, imho boost the price much, or for many days, without a BP deal.
For those that are saying that we sellers were stupid, or scared, or whatever, for selling this past week, all I can say is that I once again took a large, (for me,) profit on cortex, and I hope I left some on the table for those still long.
Should the IND fail, the stock, imho, plummets short term.
Did anyone see IDIX on Friday, they announced a deal that would produce a nice income stream, for them to use to develop other products, from a drug that had gone through Phase III trails and passed, and had sales, and the stock was down a few percentage points on Friday.......still under 3 bucks.
Cortex has its work cut out for it for sure.
Hello Catty, you are not alone
Sitting on 80-90% cash, just watching and waiting.....
Thanks for your posts.....
laddadg - I would tend to place more confidence in the investment savy of these PIPE players (sharks) than the average investor. --
I agree that they should know more than the average investor, if nothing else, then just by meeting with cor execs and getting the feedback of body language, over attitude, and, well you get the idea.... Those are certainly indicators that we cannot get much of via email, although we might get a touch of it from a conference call...
Still if the call comes after a long day, fight with spouse, or other end, a son hitting a home run in his latest t-ball game, all of these can effect the sound of a phone call.
But a pipers visit, assuming there was one or two, would, in my mind give them a leg up on the rest of us by just being there, seeing the level of commitment by employees, and of course a few million warrants thrown in....... would be a plus.
Not to be to cynical as I still hold some cor in a couple IRA's, but I once saw George Soros invest 5.6 million of early 1990's dollars, only to see the share price plummet.
It did bounce on his news of him being involved in corx, but then then had to burn through the cash, on their way to try to find their amps......
Anyway, Just because you are smart and have money, does not mean that you have great timing.....
As of this posting it is down 6.9% with only 45,000 shares traded, not exactly a vote by large position holders.
I lot of it may be folks like me just trimming before Oct., and when they didn't see a quick bounce, they just bailed out with their 1 or 2 k positions.
If heavy selling follows well then that would be a different story entirely, but right now it looks like the jury is still out on if cooler heads will prevail.
Still it could follow what has happened to COR the last several weeks, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone, slow, cruel, decline on, for the most part, little volume....
In any case, you have put this one on my radar for when I start taking positions again.....
Thanks again,
GLTU....
Ouch, I am surprised it went this way. I don't think it will take long to bounce back once the market digests the latest news, or the haircut cut would have been much worse.....
Dew your excellent posts got my into this one at 2.60 something a while back and I sold a bunch of my holdings, including IDIX the last couple days because of reservations I am having about holding stocks in general this Oct.
Anyway, I just wanted to say thanks, I wish the timing would have been better.
With the volume dropping off the last 2 days, maybe those like me, more or less on the sidelines might start feeling a bit more aggressive.
I still think there are a lot of shorts out there, greedy in a way that longs are when good news comes out, but they just can't quite bring themselves to sell because they don't want to miss an even bigger move to the upside.....so go the shorts to hope it keeps dropping. I like seeing them squeezed on great news for a stock....at least when I am long
GLTU
Doesn't this one have like a 7-8% short position in it?
Any good news that gets those folks running for cover and it's off to the races......
GLTU
I was gone all afternoon but it seem to tighten up the times I watched it this morning, you may be right on about the dumping beginning to end...I'll be watching this one for sure.
GLTU
Hello Crackerjack, You are not alone. I just don't have the guts right now to hold Sonus overnight, but I have traded many, 10's of k shares in the last few days. (not today)
My trades were exciting, I didn't see a huge downside to them, and I made a little money.
I have cashed out/trimmed down my positions the last two days as I am uneasy about holding stocks this Oct.
I was thinking today that if it fell into the .50's I would take a position and hold it for better or worse, but it didn't get there while I was on-line, if at all.
Still this stock has been fun!
Best of luck to you.
Hello Atheropervert, Could you explain "the 4 dollar drug is not on the list?" statement?
I found this article, dated today:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/wal_mart_stores_drugs.html?.v=2
Where it states: "Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is expanding its national $4 generic prescription drug program by about 10 percent, adding drugs for some new conditions.
The world's largest retailer said Thursday it has added drugs covering glaucoma, attention deficit disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, fungal infections and acne."
I understand your position that because of adverse side effects of current medicines, the FDA may be more likely to look at Amps more favorably for further testing, and I agree with that thought process.
I think that most of us feel that should Amps make it to the shelf, for AD/ADHD, and of course in the bio field that is a huge if, that they would be fairly expensive, my guess would be near 100/month???
My problem is that, with generic treatments, even with their problems, at 4 dollars a month, will be a likely choice for millions of users. Many will request the generics first and if no side effects they will have no motivation to move on to Amps. Generics in general are growing in huge percentage point jumps year over year.
Then we have those without insurance who have no choice, and insurance companies, or state insurance pools, only covering the generics first without specific written consent from the Doctor.
I have just run into this with Zyrtec, a 70-80 dollar a month treatment for allergies. After paying for it for a month, suddenly my insurance company wanted further information from my doctor's office that other alternatives, (i thought that between the lines, they meant generics,) would not be just as effective.
I think the fact that, at least entering the AD/ADHD treatment field, that already has generics, not to mention 4 dollar a month generics, should be a concern, or at least a heads up for investors and should be seriously considered....
<< Wal-Mart's news out today about the cheap 4 dollar a month generics for AD and ADHD.>>
Thanks Neuro, I ended up taking a large portion of my shares "off the tracks," (loved that analogy,) today, so very likely the stock will soar from here
Seriously though, I hope the best for COR and would be a buyer again in a heartbeat and still hold some shares in IRA's. Once again I was fortunate enough to reap a decent profit from the investment, but I cleaned out/trimmed up, a lot of my positions the last couple days and didn't want it to slide any further when there was still "money on the table."
Thanks again.......
No, Your first post today that I saw was way out of line with normal posting on Cor, you attacked Neuro relentlessly, imho. It was uncalled for.
I am curious that no one else has posted anything about Wal-Mart's news out today about the cheap 4 dollar a month generics for AD and ADHD.
Assuming Amps really do hit the self for AD/ADHD in a few years, one would think they will have to be expensive.
Isn't there something like 46 million uninsured americans that will likely be forced to choose a cheap speed like ADHD over a more well balanced Amp that may go for 100+ a month?
I have a lot of old collage friends who stayed in our area that are teachers, and they all say that there are tons of kids that need the AD/ADHD meds, but their parents likely can't afford them.
And all that is assuming we get through the FDA and to the shelf, and the odds of that are well, let's just say that Wal-Mart has the 4 scripts on the shelf now.....
Comments please from those who are more well informed....
Geesh asuhown, I have posted several non flattering posts about COR this morning. COR is not big enough to make many, if any, top 10 holding lists in quarterly reports, Wal-Mart having come out with generic AD/ADHD 4 dollar a month scripts, and likely heavy selling on that news.
I went against my own advise about selling on heavy up days and sold some this morning based on the Wal-Mart news, but I was in at a much lower price then most on this board and have sold large, (for me,) chucks of stock off the last couple days. (you can read my posts from earlier today on hot-biotechs to confirm.)
It is your personal attacks, name calling, and rude behavior that are likely getting you bounced.
Chill out.....
Well, I jumped back in at 1.62, not too heavy, but it's a start.
I am not sure that the volume is anywhere near heavy enough for Institutional selling, but you never know. Most investors, at least I used to, only look at the top 10 or so holdings in the report and I don't think COR fits on any of those lists....
More than a drift lower today. Yesterday, even a little later in the day then this, I think there were only 40,000 or so shares traded.
Today we have 5 times that already.
I think it may have to do with the Wal-Mart 4 dollar generic news.
There are a lot of uninsured folks out there that would not be able to afford a lower side effect Amp, but could help there kids somewhat for 4 bucks a month, all year long......
Yikes, How low do you think this one might go. I am interested, but 2.75 to 1.59 all because the cfo left????
Ugg- Wal-Mart now has 4 dollar AD/ADHD generics.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/wal_mart_stores_drugs.html?.v=2
AP
Wal-Mart Expands $4 Drugs Program
Thursday September 27, 10:03 am ET
By Marcus Kabel, AP Business Writer
Wal-Mart Stores Add More Drugs to Its $4 Generic Prescription Program
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is expanding its national $4 generic prescription drug program by about 10 percent, adding drugs for some new conditions.
The world's largest retailer said Thursday it has added drugs covering glaucoma, attention deficit disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, fungal infections and acne.
Two prescription birth control drugs and one fertility drug were added at $9, reflecting a higher cost that the company said could not be brought down further.
The Bentonville, Ark.-based retailer launched the $4 generics program late last year as it pushed a variety of health and environmental initiatives to counter political pressure led by union groups over its labor practices, including health insurance.
"We have taken what we do best, working with suppliers, driving costs out of the supply chain and passing those savings to our customers. Now we're applying that to health care," chief operating officer Bill Simon said on a conference call for reporters and analysts.
The increase adds about 30 prescriptions, made up of 14 drugs in various doses, to a list of 331 prescriptions and 143 drug compounds sold under the first phase introduced last year.
Critics including the National Community Pharmacists Association, which represents non-chain pharmacies that compete with Wal-Mart, have called the discounts a publicity stunt that covers only a fraction of the 8,700 generic prescription drugs approved by the Federal Drug Administration.
Analysts have said the main benefit for Wal-Mart was in drawing more shoppers into its stores who may come for prescriptions and then make purchases in other departments.
Wal-Mart has made the $4 plan, which covers 30 days worth of generic drugs, a central plank of its public relations effort and says the program has cut over $610 million in health care costs since it started. That figure is the difference between the old price it charged for the generics and the new price, times the number of prescriptions sold, Simon said.
Simon said Wal-Mart is not selling any of the $4 prescriptions at a loss. The generics are profitable, he said, without providing detailed figures.
Simon said the $4 generics under the first phase account for just under 40 percent of all prescriptions filled at Wal-Mart pharmacies. He projected that rate will climb to well over 40 percent with the new drugs.
Shares of Wal-Mart Stores rose 30 cents to $43.60 in morning trading Thursday.
---FDA gives it a 10-digit number
Humm, I wonder what the 10 digit code is for CX717 ?
I think I'll have mine with some stem cells please!
Good post Aiming4, I had no idea about this numbering/ordering system.
It has long been reported about doctors writing scripts for unapproved uses, like adderal, (sp?) for losing weight, that kind of thing.....
--I will go back to my silence --
Please feel free to...
Everything you have pointed out in your posts have been discussed here into oblivion, but since you continue to drive home the same stuff over and over and over, one might think that you had an agenda to drive down the stock price you so could add more, or that you had already shorted it and were trying to influence the price that way.
It is much easier to attack character, rather than add substance. You have attacked plenty and added little in the way of what management might have done differently.
Maybe you would have liked a personal phone call from the company letting you know a pipe was coming.....
Geesh asuhowe, take a chill pill already.
Maybe you would have rather seen cor go down in flames a few months later with no funds.
Maybe you can get a job with the FDA so they don't eat up 3.5 million of our cash making us prove dead monkeys really are dead....
Just try to add something instead of bashing, Neuro does..., even if you don't like the positive tone of it....
Hello Surf, Well I took the plunge and began taking a position in PANC yesterday, but for only about an hour. I got in my first 4k shares at 1.90, but yesterday was a day that I was really cleaning out the deadwood, and taking some profits as well. I don't like holding too many stocks going into Oct as kind of a general "thing" I have had about Oct investing for years, more like instinct/habit rather than a hard and fast rule....
Anyway, I sold out at 1.89 when I was selling in general, and thought I would wait for another day as I was selling CRGN, IDIX, OLGC, GTCB, and a host of others, many with real possibilities. Still holding a few winners like COR, and a couple others that were down 25-50% and I thought I would wait for a bounce, of sink with them....
Investing, or in this case selling, on general "feelings" has cost me some over the years, but has also saved my backside on occasion, so time will tell how I read it this year.
All that being said, I did get in and out of SNUS for 10's of k shares from .60 to .64, so there is still some trading left in this old dog.....
Thanks again for all your posts and frequent updates....
Thanks, it's on my watch list for sure. EOM
I think that you guys got some of my shares that I sold today. I cleaned out a lot of my closet throughout the day, and raised a good bit of cash. The shares I sold today in CRGN were a wash for me, but I did well off the first half. I just had the feeling they would continue to drift lower without news, so likely that means you two will make a killing
Thanks again for this one....
Sorry for the lecture on buy low sell high. But crappy management to me in this case would have been if the CX717 hold were not lifted and we would be at 50 cents. I thought management did a pretty good job of getting through that period and without ticking off the FDA, hopefully.
Hello asuhowe, Not all of us are underwater here. The bulk of my position was built in late Jan.-Early Feb. 07 at approx 1.14/share. (I think I posted late feb early march once, but that was incorrect it was actually a month earlier.) I did add a relatively small amount after the pipe. Like most of us I didn't see the pipe coming so soon.
In the old days if I hadn't looked at corx in a while and it was near 50 cents, I would buy as much as I could. These days that price is around a buck, and I did buy as much as I possibly could in early 07.
The odds for cor being successful today with their pipeline are exponentially greater than the old days, imho, and days like this where price has dropped 4% on 50,000 some odd shares does not mean much to me.
What does mean a lot in my experience with Cortex, is that you are willing to sell on the heavy up days, half million/million+ share type days, after good news comes out. It used to peak on the second or third day after great news, but now things seem to happen quicker so I am not sure that strategy still holds true. Most of us have a relatively easy time buying stocks, and a lot of difficulty selling. Bio stocks are volatile and Cortex is volatile, imho you have to be able to sell on the good news to make money in this stock.
Thanks for these surf, any thoughts on panc's drop today? I was just thinking about beginning to take a position when I read about the cfo leaving, apparently fairly suddenly.....
Hello Surf, Any thoughts on todays weakness. I got so caught up in snus this morning that I forgot to sell my remaining crgn.......