Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
"Using your gross profit margin numbers:
If each store sold just 1 bottle a day (exclude: Christmas & Easter):
451 * 24 * ($13 * 6) =
Now becomes
451 * 363 * 13 = $2,128,269 gross using your adjusted margins formula. Thats still a lot of vodka for 1 per day which is low anyways. Some days, might have a customer buy 2 at one time. Not to mention all the other US ( such as: HiTimes which does sell out) and international distribution"
No, that's simply deceptive and misleading mathematics. Where does 363 come from BTW? Plus you're now representing that Marani will sell not just two cases per store but you've increased it to five! Your numbers didn't work so you upped the sales arbitrarily to make your numbers work with my accurate gross margin and net profit formulae. These are fantasy numbers. But you still ignore operating costs and net profit. Your numbers presentation is terribly misleading. When the numbers don't work with industry standard DD and pro formae just boost the sales up without substantiation or basis?
OK though. We'll do it your way which is a totally exaggerated sales expectation but still shows how weak the company is and how much freaking Vodka they would have to sell just to break even and support share price...
451 * 30 * $13 * 12 (stores, bottle a day, gross margin per bottle, months)
That's roughly $2.1 million in gross margin sales. Apply a 30% profit margin and the net comes out to roughly $634,000 and spread out over the heavily diluted o/s it's $.003 a share. They need to at least quadruple the pie in the sky estimates just to support the current stock PPS.
Summarily, IF they have every Costco in the world selling 5 cases a month which by the way would be 18 more containers annually than they have currently imported they might be high sub penny. Pipe dream on sales though. You also have to remember that Marani is a distributor not a manufacturer or proprietary producer. They are not going to get a high multiple. 7X would be market appropriate, 10X at most.
All of that said, the bottom line is Marani has to do Grey Goose numbers just to break even and if anyone thinks that's going to happen with 13 Costcos, two third tier distributors, a Facebook page, sponsorship of Armenian charities and esoteric boat races and other cheesey events you're fooling yourself. The branding is the big issue too because none of these pie in the sky estimates are even remotely possible with the efforts being made by the company. As I said before I got over five minutes of national broadcast TV time this coming Sunday on FOX and I probably paid less for it than Marani paid Money TV.
"So its now:
451 * 24 * (28.99 * 6) = $1,882,726 gross. for all stores just 2 cases before profits.
(locations) * (cases per year) * (price per case)"
Well no, and that is also very misleading math. Their price is now $24 at a gross margin, they claim, of 48%. So it's actually 451 * 24 * ($13 * 6) = $844,272. At a 30% profit margin that comes to $253,282 or $.0004 per share. Posting gross sales numbers may be impressive but it's somewhat deceptive by ignoring COG and profit margin which is the way to value the stock and this stock has no chance of selling enough product to even come close. And the argument is really moot because they are nowhere near these kinds of sales levels and have spent two months in the same 13 test stores trying to sell what they originally stocked with and are now forced into steep discounting to clear inventory.
"Thanks BelgianS! Woo hoo - I'm wrong and OP is right :) That's a good chunk of change then 1.8 Million gross revenue a year just from Costco. Not counting rest of US, Brazil, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Colombia!"
How do you get $1.8 million? More like $1.2 million and that's gross. $600,000 gross margin and $180,000 net at the end of the day. Spread that over 550,000,000 shares and you get a whopping $.0003 per share. This just goes to show just how much they would have to sell to be even sub penny.
And as to spreading rumors, what is the source of the container information. Someone said Dan Said 60 days. Where is this information coming from? And let me just confirm, someone was told by Mr. Dan Senters of Marani Brands that a container was ordered and will ship in 60 days?
Bottom line is a good product can succeed but not with 550,000,000 shares to support. This ship will sink fast. No product is at much better.
Where did 10296 cases come from? That's the whole point. They only have 1389 cases and it's all 1 L bottles. You guys are living a pipe dream at anything more than what's been imported and available to sell.
They've had almost 10 years so the taste differentiation isn't as great as you think. It might be good but just not as great as it needs to be to switch that Grey Goose drinker. Current results sort do back that up. And the excuse of time is lame. The only thing time does is kill this company because they are paying out a huge monthly nut and doing virtually nothing to expose the brand. Announcements of wine, port, brandy, et. al on a cheesey internet stock promotion infomercial serve no purpose for the vodka. Does Marani have a special talent to find the best brandy, wine and port as well? History would prove otherwise. It's a scam through and through. Just look at the ECO connection. It's sad to see but it is definitely a scam. And hey, it may be a great product. I've never had the chance to try it but if so it's a shame to waste a good product on a scam stock play. This would be a great little private company with a premier vodka and no BS. It would need totally different management though!
Wrong. There is a limit on the number of cases. The distillery might be able to produce 20,000 cases a month but it's what Marani can afford to buy and what they can sell. So far it's 1389 cases or less. Period. And what exposure are we talking about? The vapor national commercial promised to be completed two weeks ago? Or maybe the Armenian charity organization? Perhaps the off shore non televised amateur boat race that no one attended? Wait... Maybe the pre pre ESPY party that even the star attendee claimed didn't show. Hmmmm. Not sure where that exposure is going to come from.
I may be being a bit harsh but since September they have two second rate distributors and one retail test going badly it seems. Wouldn't you expect something more in almost 11 months from a company you believe has the ability to sell anywhere near the expectations people are talking about? They can't turn the 1400 cases they have let alone any more.
I don't account for wishful thinking and pipe dreams. I look at the hard facts and numbers and fundamentals. Believing a five person under capitalized company can become a spirits juggernaut with only 1389 cases to sell in inventory, two third tier distributors and one retail test in 2% of the retailers stores that seems to be going poorly with deep discounts coming in... Well it's an easy call to make. International sales would be good but again like in 2009 it looks the same. Just talk. When you don't get numbers next week, it will be very clear what's going on. And you won't get numbers. Marani will probably never publish financials again. I'll bet on that. Because if they do, it's over for good. Just watch. Q2 financials, even unaudited, should be readily available. But they're not. Margrit said "profitable" in Q2. Not only are they not profitable, they ran up a huge loss and have virtually no sales. They need to send 20 containers to Brazil just to remain above sub penny. The numbers aren't cute, they're real. The wishful thinking numbers through events that are unlikely to take place are the cute ones.
There is little factual information here. It is purely fantasy. The fact remains that the company has imported ONE container this year to date totaling 1389 cases documented by the BOL. Any more estimated sales is impossible because there is no more product available for sale. Just a fact.
"10,296 cases a year in Costco if every store sold 2 a month..."
Yes, which would produce roughly $350,000 in net profit, being generous. That would amount to .0005 with regard to share price spread over 550,000,000 shares. So you see, the amount of sales needed to support any reasonable PPS has to be In the fantasy region just to be sub penny at a 10X multiple. That said, given the max sales can only be 1389 cases and even if I give you 25X your estimate of per store sales, total gross margin revenue is only $145,000. There can't be any more sales than that, period. That's all they've imported. That's 100% sell through which I strongly doubt. Regardless, net profit being generous on that is less than $50,000 or .00007 per share. Bottom line is the stock is less than sub penny by the company's numbers and max sales. These are just facts. To expect anything more than that number is not possible as they haven't got anymore to sell than that. is it is an impossibility for one, the company to be profitable this past quarter and two, to be profitable at any time in the future unless they increase sales by an impossible amount. And here's the big rub, to get that increase they will need a boatload of money and people because with the amount of dilution and current o/s they will need Grey Goose sales numbers to even break even and that's going to take hundreds of millions of dollars that Marani doesn't have nor will they ever have. When it goes super sub penny, they'll go dark and once again walk away from the debt, tax liabilities and default judgments. But the siblings will be another $5 to $10 million richer on your money.
Yes, a company that Margrit is a past president and officer. So she paid herself for PR? How do you explain that connection? How do you explain payments to a company that she was deeply involved with? How do you rationalize the conflict of interest? That pales in comparison to the ECO INvestments deal. Same board and people on both sides of the deal? Tens of millions of shares passing hands and it turns out it's from one desk to another in huge same office without notification or filings to allow shareholders to review the situation? It all stinks to high heaven of insider malfeasance. Charlie Owen, Deborah Ridge, ECO, NBR, National Investments, Large Investments, et. al. I have no idea who, what or how all these folks and entities are involved but it's got insider swindle written all over it.
I will ask the most important DD question once again as no one has answered it. Where did $30 million go given COG of less than $200,000 and basically only five employees. Can anyone explain that? They ran no national advertising, spent virtually nothing on marketing, did not build a distillery, no capital expense of any sort. Where did the money go? Where is the new money going? Who is benefitting from the huge dilution of shares? Well, it sure does look like it's someone at Red Hill, Tustin, CA. Consider the shares ECO got for almost nothing. Did you pay more than .0001 per share? We'll guess what, a BOD member(s) from Marani got the spread on your purchase price and put it in their pocket(s). Margrit managed to accumulate 40 million or so shares without investing a nickel. Her siblings got a boatload too for doing nothing and investing nothing. Their time and sweat equity? No way. They paid he selves handsomely with every one of your dollars. Margrit even fired herself, created a bogus severance plan and paid herself two years of salary in seven months then hired herself back at full salary and even more stock seven months later. Are you guys kidding me? Plus she vested her shares and options on all her previous zero cost stock which she couldn't have done if she didn't fire herself. It was all a setup but that's what happens with a company with no governance. I doubt a lot of what has transpired is even close to legal and when it all comes to light it will be 2010 all over again. Look for Marani to return in 2020 to give it another go!
If Marani were selling out at the Costco stores as some have claimed, why would they drop the price so dramatically? When something is selling you don't drop the price. Makes no sense. Looks a lot more like a clearance sale to cover the cost of the test which was probably paid for in a combinations of product and cash and they didn't sell enough product to cover. Last gasp, drop the price and do whatever you can to avoid taking back product.
I would be surprised if Dan Senters would ever consider this discount if it was selling through as well. But then again, I really don't think Dan is around anymore. I think it's now the Margrit show ala 2009. Except this time you're not starting with a stock at $2.00 but $.01. Not far to go this time. Matter of months if that. Financials for Q2 should be done and out. Margrit promised profitability. Not only will there be no profitability, you'll never know because they're not going to report. If they do it's all over. Facts are facts, one container covers one month of operating costs. The loss will be no less than $400,000 for the quarter. Just a fact based on documented information from the company. Why she ever said they'd be profitable this past quarter is just astonishing to me. She is truly a buffoon.
She cares nothing about shareholders. She cares about lining her pockets. There is no profit to too speak of or to distribute among shares. It's a dead dog. As long as she can pay for her car, her health care and other personal expenses she will sell you her zero basis cost stock until it runs out. She and her siblings have made over $25 million since 2005. Nice deal.
100% verified. State liquor laws. For them to even suggest it was fraudulent. You cannot serve liquor in any establishment in the country without a retail liquor license. Period. They outright mislead. There will be no tastings for sure.
Nope. And never will. Too much liability to even think about. This is a dream that Marani put in everybody's head. Just another half truth for everyone to interpret as fact. I'm thinking that they're getting pulled and trying last gasp measures and paying more co-op to try and stay in the store. Looks like a clearance deal. If it had sold through Costco would be on re-order at full price. Probably sold 50 cases or less. Enough money to pay for Magrit's car. And why are we paying for her car? I ate catsup soup and crackers and drove a junker I paid for myself starting my first company. She's driving around in a Mercedes living in an Orange County mansion on YOUR money.
Not "tasting"... "dry demos" as relayed by the company. They said it not me. You assumed tasting. Not true. What that means I have no idea. But trust me, no one's drinking Marani in a Costco.
No alcohol to be served inside the store. Requires a retail ABC open bottle permit. It's the law in 50 states. Wineries and distilleries get a pass because they usually have a license and card. A retail liquor license is a very hard deal. Costco doesn't have one and they don't do it.
FACT: Margrit was president of Zodiac Brands
FACT: Margrit wrote her own $405,000 severance plan plus stock
FACT: ECO investments has the same address and board as Marani.
FACT: Margrit and family get paid $200K+ a year
FACT: Magrit and family get free cars at least $3000 per month.
FACT: Margrit vested herself in stock.
FACT: Margrit took 6.5 million shares of stock to rehire herself.
FACT: Marani has imported ONE container of vodka worth $50,000.
FACT: Marani tanked in 2009 with the exact same game plan
FACT: Broadcast West has never done a national advertisement
FACT: Money TV is a scripted infomercial
FACT: ECO Investments is domiciled at the same address as Marani.
FACT: The BOD of ECO Investments and Marani are the same.
FACT: Marani owes over $250,000 in payroll tax.
FACT: Marani has lost over $25 million with only $250K in COG
FACT: Margrit and family pay themselves over $200K per year.
FACT: Broadcast West has never done a national commercial
FACT: This company failed miserably in 2009 under the same plan.
FACT: Marani has less inventory than what's needed to cover one half month of expenses.
There is no tasting. End of story. Possibly a coupon for an instant rebate and that's it.
Nope. I dumped most of it between .025 and .03. Realized what a scam it was. Just posting the FACTS that we know of so others can make a valid decision. It's become very clear to me that this is a play, not a value proposition. It has nothing to do with the company or its potential. Just the ability to bump the PPS up for a quick gain. Using fundamentals no investor in their right mind would invest in this. Just a craps roll.
"What about the GREEN flags? Can't we discuss them too?"
Absolutely. DD should be objective. It would serve us all much better to remember that good DD is confirming the Green flags through factual discovery and uncover any red flags in the same manner. Echoing PR from the company, interpreting vague suggestions by same and giving photos of the product consideration are meaningless and certainly not any form of DD.
Ok. Here's some real DD, No pics, not just a regurgitation of company pics and PR. I've been quite successful in the venture cap market but have to admit I've gotten burned a few times. That was because I believed the hype and drank the Kool-Aid. Hasn't happened for a long time because I now look hard and long at the facts, not the company offerings and hype.
Real Product
Ok, the green flags. Marani has real product. Yes, without a doubt. You see it, taste it feel it, touch it. The consensus seems to be that it's a very good product as well. I can't attest to that having not tasted it but everyone seems to think so. Big plus. The only question there is even a great product will never make it without the proper branding and there is some doubt as to whether appropriate steps are being taken to accomplish that.
Sales
Yes. Big plus. Sales are good. Hi-Times isn't exactly a player in the distribution business and I doubt they sell much but you need distribution points and they are definitely such. Restaurant Depot is strictly a wholesaler but you need those too. Another plus. Costco is great. Big name, huge presence. But we must remember this is a test, most likely a paid for co-op which is usually the way Costco does it. Also to consider as far as "multiple" stores go, the coverage amounts to less than 2% of Costco stores and after two months of coverage has not been expanded. Taking away from the green flag a little here is the almost 20% discount applied recently. You don't lower the cost of a product selling through, period. Never.
Tastings
Let's get it straight. There will be no tastings. It will be a single promotion over the next few days using a "dry demo" whatever that is. But, still an in store presence is always a good thing and positive. I'm not sure I understand what they will be doing in the store as the product is already discounted so no need to pass out coupons, Maybe they are instate rebate flyers, who knows. Hopefully someone here will visit and let us know what the presence is/was. Again, have to take away a few points because I know just about every one of these events are paid for co-op, not Costco's interest in the product. Discounts given out during the demos? As stated, if they were selling through there would be no need to discount so steeply but maybe it will increase sales a little even at a slimmer margin.
Container Stateside With More on the Way?
This is totally unsubstantiated. There is nothing to confirm anything's even been ordered. I'm sure Marani would have been the first one's to scream this out on Money TV. IF it were true it would be a green flag indicating product sell through. Unfortunately the lack of such implies the opposite. Can't give this one even close to a green flag.
International Contracts
Huge revenue projections and huge sales... if true. Remember that this company and exact same management promised EXACTLY the same thing five years ago and not a single deal came through or materialized but the announcement ran the stock up to $2 before tanking terribly. Nice green flag in theory but track record and lack of any execution to date speaks otherwise. Let's not count these eggs before they hatch. The company's credibility with respect to these supposed contracts is more than suspect.
Three Varieties of Brandy, Port Wine
Personally I think they should be focusing on one variety of Vodka. But, if there was a market and they could create synergy with Vodka sales another product line is nice for a salesman calling on a distributor. But, again, remember, this was also an announcement and promise back in 2009 which never came to be. They never even imported any nor did they import any beer or wine which were also announced and promised. Another believe it when I see it deal. Until then it's all vapor. Sorry, no green flag there just wishful thinking and rationalization for optimism of revenue which may never materialize.
Marketing Campaign Along With TV Spots
This is a huge green flag. Finally some effort at branding. A national TV spot is significant. But, I have to call BS on the announcement and details, hence no green flag here. Broadcast West was created in 2014 from the shell of another tanked SMT provider. They published a website with a bunch of fictional clients who they've never worked for (their predecessor may have bought time on some of them but that's it) and promised national commercials would be complete more than two weeks ago. Furthermore, as far as I can tell the body of work for the company represents zero national ads. Just infomercial productions and SMTs. Running national ads without retaining an ad agency or branding firm tells me we should get ready for some more Money TV type stuff, just run on TV instead of the internet. But I guarantee you it will be sandwiched between the Wonder Mop and the Bacon Cup on early morning paid programming remnant space on HGTV or something of the like. Another item that turns this from a green flag to a red flag is Margrit's past announcements of working with Zodiac which we now know she was a past officer and president. That's just really bad.
Company Follow Through
This is totally subjective and dependent on interpretation. I'd have to make this interpretation as a green flag red right away. There's little if any follow through other than vapor announcements with virtually no execution. But, she'll have her chance. He said the company would be profitable by next financials. Let's see. I don't know how. They've spent so much more money that even that one container at gross margin could cover I seriously doubt they'll show anything better than a $300,000 loss for the quarter by my calculations. Contract announcements months ago and no updates. Financials coming but they remain non-reporting. Dilution galore without explanation or detail. Deals with themselves unexplained when pressed for answers? I don't see much follow through. Sorry green flag gone red.
Ok. Time to look at some of the red flags.
History
We have the same company, same management, same employees (bar Dan for Paul but basically the same) same advertising and marketing strategy, same dilution, same announcements, same expanded product line ideas, same board and lack of governance separation... there's really nothing different from a company that blew through $25 million on what appears to be little to no sales. What would make one think that the same people executing a carbon copy of a plan that tanked miserably five years ago would work a second time. Guess that depends on who benefitted five years ago, eh? I've been told they learned from past failure. Doesn't look like it. I'd really like someone to come up with anything that's being done differently?
Relationships and Connections
Some of these are huge red flags. No one can deny a few of them. ECO Investments one of the largest shareholders with tens of millions of zero cost basis stock and domiciled at the same address as Marani with the same BOD as Marani up until the big dilution when they changed the domicile to a residential address a few miles away? HUGE red flag. There are a number of other business domiciled there as well. Large Investments, Inc, National Investments, Inc., NBR, Inc. It certainly looks like a lot of inside deals are being transacted. Looking into these companies the same names come up time over time along with Margrit and family. Charlie Owen, Deborah Ridge, Charlie Griffithe and all are tied to Marani with Charlie Owen and Deborah Ridge listed as both directors and officers of ECO and Marani. That's the biggest red flag you could ever come up with.
And how about the money paid to Zodiac for third tier PR and event sponsorship. She's a former officer and president! Is she starting a bunch of PR and media firms and just paying herself? Sort of looks like it. And one note here as it has been poste this information is untrue. If you check with the Nevada Secretary of State the historical information confirms all of this. Just make sure you check the box for historical information/inactive officers. The fact that the box was unchecked (it defaults to checked) and then screenshot posted is a significant attempt to mislead. She was president of Zodiac, ECO Investments was at Red Hill Road suite 201 in Tustin, CA and at least two other investment companies at the Marani address.
Corporate Structure
This is a red flag only because the reverse merger and company structure is so confusing. I think it was meant to be. MEI, Marani Sprits, Inc. and Marani Brands, Inc. I wish someone could explain it to me. Marani Spirits is a California Corporation, not the public entity operating actively. Marani Brands is a Nevada corporation with a forfeited license in California. It's a web of corporate manipulation which always gets my spidey sense going.
Management Largesse
Big salaries, big expenses. The family and probably more get $700 a month just for their cars. Another $8000 plus each in medical. I think I saw that one sibling got $16,000 Almost $200,000 each and more for salary. None of this includes stock compensation and there's been a lot. Let's not forget that the company paid Margrit over $400,000 for severance, her car and medical and gave her millions of shares of vested stock only to come back to the company at full salary in addition to that severance, paid in full, eight months later. Basically she did the deal with herself and her siblings. Cost the company well over two million dollars.
No Skin in the Game
This is a little subjective but a pet peeve. It appears to me that the family and siblings have never put a nickel into the company. But based on accumulated loss and cost of sales they've taken out over $20 million. WOW! Every single last share of their stock was acquired for zero basis or close to it. Even Margrit's options were discounted and vested as part of her severance which it really looks like she manufactured all on her own.
Financials and Financial Resources
This is straight math. $2500 in sales for the first quarter? Ok... everyone rationalized it but the fact remains that only $200,000 in gross margin product has even been imported and delivered to Marani. We have no idea how much of that has been sold. From the look of things it looks like not much. Was it paid for as she said? Probably, with your money. The value of that single container doesn't even cover the monthly operating costs. Not even close. The exact same setup as 2009 was reported in their 10K as being over $200,000 a month. Given one container a year, that would amount to a $2,200,000 loss for the year. I'd say they're right in line for that number. Mark my words. I doubt anyone has dug through the financials and DD on same the way I did.
Marketing and Advertising
It's pretty much lame. A consumer product and brand takes millions of dollars to launch, especially one that has to dig themselves out from a bad track record and history of miserable failure. What has been done so far is meaningless. All of it is third tier, regional cheap stuff. I actually think it's going to family and friends of Margrit. Spreading the wealth so to speak to her friends without spending to much. An esoteric boat race with virtually no attendees? An almost totally unknown Armenian charity? A regional Mall promotion? A pre pre party for the ESPY awards where they probably provided a case of vodka for involvement? Money TV? A sad excuse for advertising on a second rate web site with an audience totally untargeted? Sorry this is a huge red flag. Then there's the apparent impression of impropriety with Margrit's possible interest in the companies getting this sub par coverage through companies like Zodiac.
Resources
Really simple one here. Financial and human. How can a company with eight or nine employees come anywhere close to doing this considering their burn rate? They need to do Grey Goose type numbers to support the O/S and that's not going to happen with nine people. They also do not and will never have the capital to launch a consumer product/brand to achieve those numbers. Do you have any idea what Grey Goose spends on advertising? Do you how many employees and sales folks they have? What you have is sole proprietor Main Street Hardware with no capital posing as the next Home Depot. Ain't going to happen. You san wish and pray all you want. You can rationalize all the red flags. You can fantasize about 15 containers a month which is what they need to turn a profit but there is no model in the world that makes that happen with what they have.
Dan Senters
This one is purely speculative and my personal opinion. I think he's gone. The lack of his presence on Margrit's rumbling, bumbling, buffoon appearance on Money TV was significant. That spot could have been shot anytime. Why not have him there. He's the only voice of and presentation of credibility whatsoever. On vacation? Get real. He's history. He knows what's going on just like Paul did and is running far and fast whiting out Marani from his resume looking for a job before the whole thing collapses. I actually thought he was quite good as a presenter but not beng able to confirm his background and finding descrepancies in his CV I had to question. He's never been with any of the companies that were listed and appears to have been a middle manager at LaVeche at best. A far cry from Paul his predecessor who had doubled sales at Skyy and has since wiped any record of Marani from his record. I almost feel bad for him because I'm betting Margrit and family are impossible to work with and only interested in the stock deal and not building a business. But the fct remains he has sort of disappeared and depending on Margrit and family alone to pull anything off? I'd say we have less than two months... If they publish financials in August as promised, less than a month but I expect you'll get no financials ever again.
I'd also take this opportunity for Dan Senters to tell us he's solidly in place and staying. I'm sure he reads this thread. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll ever hear from him again. Let us know Dan...
And just a reminder... The type of PR and brand coverage Marani should be in to and that I've been speaking of can be seen on Sunday at 12PM EST on FOX Sports 1. I won't say what I paid for it but it was a lot less than Marani has spent... probably by a hundred fold. BTW, I'm the tall guy holding the driver's helmet at the end of event interview with FOX commentator Brian Till... if it made the edited broadcast. I only saw the live feed. Point is we got over five minutes of national TV coverage. How much did the bogus boat race get? The ESPY party? The Armenian charity? The regional Macy's promotion? Some random bar in Antelope Valley? And I'll bet they paid more than I did for each of those because Margrit was on the other side of the deal sucking up money.
Real DD. No pictures. No hype. No echoing company PR as fact. Just the facts ma'am.
Yes. It's what we call a court house steps settlement. They'll go through the process, discovery, bickering, nuisance motions and lots of paperwork and then settle it the day the trial starts. The issue would only be what would satisfy Bodie and would Marani have the resources to settle it to his minimal expectations? And regardless of the public company aspect I'm sure it would be gagged. That's common regardless of public or private status and up to the parties involved not the judge.
Here's the rub though and the tough break for Bodie, so I'm not so sure why he's doing it. The process is going to drain the Marani coffers as well as his own significantly (I've tried two similar cases and both were relatively minor skirmishes that resulted in literally millions in legal fees). Given the fact that I truly believe Marani will go dark as they did in 2009 long before any trial (we'll see), adding a default judgment to the heap of debt and liabilities will be of no concern for Marani and Bodie will be left with getting blood from a stone. That's why I didn't give the whole thing much thought. But, as I said, if the original transaction starts getting examined and it's not kosher, you better believe some other enforcement folks will start looking at all the transactions. Officers of the court in those depositions have an obligation to report any knowledge of a crime. I'm not sure how that's handled ethically but I'd say it's a risk for both parties.
Not so sure of that. As I said, Bodie might have to avoid that route unless his deal with Marani was squeaky clean and I have my doubts. The fact that it is materially left out of the complaint makes me believe it might be a problem for him. Like calling a bank robber such and then breaking your ankle while running out of their bank having just robbed them. They might have to stick to just that broken ankle as evidence in collecting on any claim.
I think discovery could produce a lot of dirty laundry for both sides. From what I read, Marani really seems to have neglected to honor the contract and reporting requirements but to tell you the truth I'm of the belief that none of the deals including the one with Bodie were even kosher. The deal with ECO certainly stands out as suspicious given the information we now have which I'm sure Bodie has as well. If Marani was doing deals with themselves as it certainly appears without board controls or acceptable governance it most certainly presents Bodie with a strong case not to mention pending the door for a lot of other potential legal problems for Marani. But like I said, I'm really not sure Bodie' s deal was on the up and up either. I'd say that's why the complaint doesn't mention any of that or the actual transaction but the conversion issues. If Bodie did that it might open up a big can of worms.
With all the talk about dilution and the company selling stock to cover operational expenses I have some questions. First and foremost would be how this conversion is taking place? As far as I know it is illegal for a company to sell what amounts to treasury stock on the open market. That said, the law does not prevent officers and employees from selling stock but there are restrictions. The most common and we'll know is that any holder of 5% or more must report any open market sale. As there has not been any report or filing of a 4K the stock must be coming from somewhere else and a holder(s) of less than 5% AND the proceeds cannot go back to the company. That would be an illegal conversion and non arms length sale. This is not a practice uncommon to non-reporting companies and being non-reporting keeps them under the radar. That doesn't make it legal though.
The first red flag I see with reference to this is Bodie. The investment aside, the amount of stock received was clearly met the need for a filing and what was reported was obviously erroneous? Intentional? I would think so because it was so far off.
The second red flag is the huge dilution and number of shares flooding into the market over the last eight or so. What was the source? It had to be either directly through the company, an employee/insider or through a private placement. Now there is another possibility. The company could sell stock through a n outsider or nominee. This is highly illegal (see U.S v. DiMauro, U.S. V. Pensley).
The bottom line is there seems to be no method by which the company could legally convert treasury stock. Section 504 is very clear as to what a company and management can and can't do and the filing requirements for 4ks is equally clear. I just cat figure out how these 200 million plus shares (almost 400 million since the "rebirth") came to be or we're made open market unrestricted shares let alone with the company as a beneficiary of the proceeds in many legal way. Maybe someone can clear this up?
This brings me to one more point. I didn't think much of the Bodie case until considering the above. Just he said she said BS with an unhappy investor. But my thinking has changed. Having re-read the complaint there are a lot of problems for Marani as it relates to transactions and conversions. Not that Bodie is directly involved or affected but discovery could very possibly expose some very questionable deals the company made not as to the actual conversion prices but the actual legality of those transactions.
A "dry demo"? Sounds pretty lame to me as it relates to a spirit product. I also believe those in-store promotion are paid deals or co-op arrangements and any coupon redemption comes out of Marani's pocket directly cutting the margin per bottle by almost 20%. As I said before, the announcements are becoming weaker and weaker with less and less tangible content. National TV commercials were said to be done two weeks ago but still nothing even resembling such has been mentioned. The marketing and advertising just seems so sketchy, disjointed and to tell you the truth, quite cheesey. What's next, a full page ad in huge PennySaver?
And saying things like IF they got another container it would mean big bucks is totally misleading and without confirmation of such is just wishful thinking. Given that from the latest announcement involving only the 13 original Costco stores, there has been no expansion as was hinted at over a month ago. Just another half truth and vague reference intended to get folks to rationalize it as fact. And more important, another container would only generate $50, 000 or so in profit and I doubt even that. MRIB budget back in 2009 for G&A requirements was listed in their filings at roughly $200,000 per month. At that time they had the same staff, same inventory, same advertising promises and commitments and same claims of national distribution and retail presence. I can't believe the monthly nut would be any less now that five years ago so that $200,000 per container would be like shooting a BB at a freight train. Most likely it would represent a huge loss and the obvious inability of the company to be profitable.
The only thing that will save this company at this point is sales data and huge profits to cover the enormous dilution. I've got news for you, they don't need another container, they need like 15 a month! And huge national broadcast TV coverage, which we all know will never happen, won't help. Speaking of which from the sponsorship angle Marani has been working for the last five years. I recently attended an event in which I was also a lead sponsor. The response in a matter of hours was huge. The phone has not stopped ringing since I got back to the office. If the company were real and dedicated they would be doing things like this but they cost money and what they have chosen to pursue are the cheapies so they can give the impression of marketing and promotion while conserving cash for salaries et. Al. Anyone interested in seeing this example I speak of can tune into FOX Sports 1 on Sunday at 12PM EST to check it out. You'll also see a lot of us during the broadcast with a big surprise at the end! Let me also say they're were no less than 20 different Spirits and alcoholic beverage companies involved like Patron, Bacardi, Martini, Abbey Road and an assortment of micro distillers just like Marani. The big difference though was they were doing tastings, give always, had all sorts of models walking around distributing product and print material... All in front of 50,000 plus folks and hrs and hrs of national TV coverage both live and to be rebroadcast as well. One in particular struck me which was a rum filtered with honey. Tune in and check it out and I think you'll see how much better MRIB could be doing with their marketing.
Ps. Thanks for the info Veronica Fox. Sounds to me like much vodka was consumed. For the lungs let's hope it was Marani.
Yes, good point. And as we are seeing, the PR is getting weaker and weaker and certainly unverifiable. If there were good news from Costco for example, it would be communicated immediately. Announcing national advertising without a media plan is simply fluff. Other than the initial hype it creates when announced it works against them as time goes by and nothing materializes. But then again, that seems to be quite a common occurrence at Marani.
The problem this company now faces, scam or not, is they are running out of credibility. The PR will go only so far and as stated, becomes weaker and weaker and ultimately will start looking like excuses more than news. When this happens only one thing will support credibility and that's tangible results. Sales, seeing a real national ad, new customers, financials, etc. and the financials is the big deal now. As long as they don't report it starts to look more and more like they're hiding something. Again, it's a credibility issue. No news in this case is most likely bad news.
And just a hunch but I think there is a lot more to Dan Senters absence on the Money TV spot Friday. Vacation? Why would they schedule the shoot while he was out on vacation? He's the only one giving this company any credibility whatsoever. So instead Margrit alone goes out and as one would expect fumbles all over herself and looks totally foolish and unprofessional? Nope, I don't buy it. I think mr. Senters may be history realizing what's going on inside. But he surely wouldn't say anything because he's probably got all or a good portion of his compensation tied up in MRIB stock. If I were Senters I'd do exactly what his predecessor did... Run far and fast and remove Marani from the resume.
I'll ask the same question again. More than $30 million has been spent. Where did it go? They brought in maybe two containers which by their accounting was maybe $250,000. No advertising or marketing to speak of. So where is the other $29 million? You're kidding yourselves if you think this is anything other than a scam. These gypsies had the audacity to come back for a double dip after running the con five years ago. Problem is that they now have only hype to market. Everyone is looking for sales and they're not there. Matter of weeks now. Costco will pul the product in a matter of days when their co-op dollars run out. The fifty or sixty cases they might have sold will pay for the siblings cars for a month.
That Money TV spot was painful to watch. Margrit is no business executive. She talks and talks and talks and says absolutely nothing. She presents so poorly both verbally and physically that it negates any possible positive effect of the infomercial. There was not a single material thing said. This is not to mention that the entire idea of adding product lines is nothing more than fantasy and bad business for a company in their current state. Just a total embarrassment. It will not be long before this band of gypsies is exposed. I gave it until Q4 but I think it will tank sooner now. They're grasping at straws now and trying to use pure totally unsupportable propaganda to stem a total collapse and shut down of the money printing press. Look for one last big sell off to line the family coffers for the next four year hiatus. Like squirrels gathering their acorns. True rodents.
Also, on the DD, it is very easy to try and change information, records, etc. but the historical data cannot simply be erased. There is no denying the connections between Margrit, Zodiac, ECO and certain media she'll companies. They've attempted to cover their tracks by changing names, addresses, controlling interest listings, etc. but they can't wipe out the historical data. Posting just the new altered information as DD is simply wrong and misleading.
Bottom line is this. The company has blown through what's probably close to $35-40 million since inception. They've basically had the same 4 or 5 employees the entire time and total time of actual operations is in actuality only three, maybe four years. They only brought in maybe 2 containers during those periods as well. So where did all that money go? Didn't go to product, didn't go to marketing, didn't go to facilities, equipment, capital expense, human resources, etc. the company put out maybe a million for every single expense that could possibly be associated with the operation and the balance of tens of millions went to the siblings. Here is no possible accounting for the sum of accumulated loss going back through the Q's and K's along with the most current filings. There is no other answer. Ask yourself this question as simple DD... What could the company have spent $30 plus million on given all of the information we have on the operation? Nothing adds up other than the inevitable realization that it all went to four or five really big salaries and personal expenses for Margrit and her siblings. My biggest problem is that lots of polls say y need to spend money to make money but not only is the imbalance here so enormous but it is unexplainable and unaccountable under any non-fraudulent scenario. Good luck to all but be well aware this boat is going down by the stern very quickly.
Smoking gun... Well Real DD pays off versus posting pretty pictures of bottle, parties and echoing company hype and PR. Here's some real DD. I got curious about ECO Investment Properties and others having received almost 160,000,000 shares for mysterious loans not previously accounted for. Well I did some checking because none of these companies that have been getting stock have any contacts or officers. So I dug deeper. Finally found their corporate registration in Nevada. Funny thing about ECO. Their address is 15941 Red Hill Road, Tustin, CA. Same as guess who? Yes, Marani Brands. Hate to tell you longs but this is a total swindle and their is no rationalizing this one. Total proof of scam. Not only are the siblings doing deals with themselves with YOUR money they're setting up sham companies to get more. It's also crossed a line legally. This is a violation of 504 rules and represents an illegal distribution of registered stock. Bottom line is the siblings ripped everyone off in 2009 and they're doing it again.
There will be no huge gains. No huge PPS jump. Just a steady decline into another shutdown when they can't do any more stock deals. This was never about selling vodka or spirits. It was just a way to manipulate the public through a vehicle, vodka and dreams of being the next Grey Goose. It all makes sense now. The impossible financials, the meager attempts at marketing, the lack of any sales possible of supporting the PPS. It was never about the product which may be good but they don't care. It's about how much money they can suck out of it. Having already sucked out close to $30 million they have proven it can be done and now are doing it a second time. If anything I would call them extremely successful... They got lots of our money for doing nothing.
And by the way, Broadcast West is also a sham company. Nice DD by a board member to check it out in person. That's real DD. None of the clients they list are clients and they're corporate address tracks back to a residential address in Montebello which also lists the Order of Odder Fellows Lodge # 355 and they've only been in business for about 6 months. It wouldn't surprise me if the company was paying them for commercials that will never be made with the money going to the siblings.
Here's another beauty. Check the Nevada business records and you'll find that Margrit Eyraud held the position of President at Zodiac Brands. So all the money paid to Zodiac was just a matter of spending money to make money... For Margrit. Zodiac was just another inside job.
The relationships and connections are just undeniable and cannot be rationalized. This is a swindle through and through. It will go the same route as 2010. When the ability to sell stock to pay salaries and expenses comes to an end so will the company. Bottom line is this was never about selling vodka it was about selling stock. Vodka was simply a vehicle. That's why only two containers have made their way to the US over the past five years. Why try and sell the vodka when you can sell stock with zero cost basis? PR is a lot cheaper than a container of vodka.
One little side note... I'm surprised no one caught this. The latest PR for the wine. It lists it as a 15 year vintage port produced in 1996. Uh... That's closer to 20 years old. Why would you market a 20 year old vintage as a 15 year old vintage when age is of the utmost importance? I'll tell you why. It was the same announcement from four years ago and someone forgot to change the age on the PR. For Dan Senters to miss this tells me he is not the man everyone thinks and is in fact just a lackey brought in from some run of the mill private labeler. It just goes to show they are running the same game plan as 2009-2010. I give them three more months befor the doors are closed.
There's some real DD for you!
Misanthrope makes valid objective points. And there are a lot of other red flags but the crux of the problem stockholders will face is that the management and officers are not acting like entrepreneurs in a startup. They're acting like corporate bigwigs with a company making millions of dollars a quarter. The salaries, as they were in 2009 as we'll, are ridiculously high for the value of their participation. None of the have any experience other than tanking the company first time around. Why does a startup need a CFO and a Controller? Why do they need a $200,000 a year CEO who has nothing to contribute? And as far as Magrit using her own money or putting anything in the kitty, read the financials. I don't believe she put in a plug nickel, ever. She forgave part of her huge salary that had accrued when they ran out of money. Most of that probably was incurred while the doors were shut too. And let's not forget the $6 million in compensation that the siblings took out in less than 2 years.
The company is just too top heavy. The question of intent is almost not as important as just looking at the whole picture and seeing that there is no possible way the company can carry out this fantasy. Maybe if you had Senters as the CEO with a couple of sales people under him and a part time bookkeeper with the siblings as unpaid board members there might be a slight chance but even then with the huge dilution sales would have to rival Grey Goose and the like. That's not going to happen. And as long as they keep spending money like a drunken sailor, mostly on themselves, and on cheesey cheap non impact marketing, they are headed right down the same road they were in 2009.
Let's not forget that Margit has alone accumulated close to 40 million shares at a zero cost basis. There's no record of any cash investment for such other than $1500 to capitalize MEI. Giving up accrued salary for services the company didn't need in the first place? And let's not forget that she was rewarded handsomely for that give back in stock. And then there's the severance package for 8 months for close to $500,000 which she was paid in full in cash and allowed her to accelerate her stock vesting. That shouldn't be legal. She quit and then hired herself back!
The really shady part of this is governance and controls. The siblings are simply doing all of these deals with themselves with no oversight. And, has anyone looked into these capital companies they did stock deals with? I did. They all seem to be shell companies with no officers or directors listed and appear to have no other deals with anyone other than Marani. Eco? McCaillen? And they were all incorporated and started shortly before the company attempted their comeback in 2013. Very fishy.
Bottom line is the largesse of the siblings not only stands in the way of the company getting anywhere but will most like take the company down. Just keep in mind that the company must sell 20 cases a month just to cover car payments for the siblings. Then they have to sell another 300 cases to cover their salaries for doing god knows what. Dan Senters is the only one currently there that offers any value that the company needs NOW.
The old company had the same promises of national marketing and advertising as the current company. Fact is there is no national advertising at present just an announcement of attempting such just as they did back in 2009. Matter of fact they published a need for $200,000 plus a month in operating costs in their filings at that time in order to accomplish such. Funny, they spent the money as stated but no advertising or marketing came about. Do you really think it's different this time.
There is nothing different with this company his time around. Same games, same announcements lined with half truths to make them seem plausible. Same level of insolvency and toxic funding. One container shipped for the year which should cover the cost of the three siblings cars for the year according to the financials. Or did you not know the company lays out almost $30,000 a year for Magrit, Ani and Ara for their cars. It shocks me that principals would saddle a startup so heavily if they had any intention on making it work. These expenses are in addition to their $200k salaries and $6 million in stock compensation already received. These are nt entrepreneurs. They have simply found a vehicle for sucking money out of the public for their personal use.
I don't think that could be done. If they were deregistered the stock would not be available to sell or distribute because of the lack of any valid registration statement. I believe once deregistered you're somewhat frozen up on further offerings, private or public, until a valid registration is in place.
I would assume any stock distributed with or without a registration statement was most likely through Form S-8 stock via an employee, attorney, third party nominee, etc. but to do so without a registration statement is still illegal and violates rules 5A and 5C of the securities act. Not to say people don't try or do this but it is illegal. There seems to be a lot of funny business here. I am not knowledgeable enough about the terms of deregistration to opine legally but something seems amiss. Perhaps they can do anything they want with the original registration statement and 700,000,000 shares. I just don't know but it doesn't seem right. Once the Form 15 is filed it would seem to me that the registration statement is or should be invalid given a coming material change in the stock structure, a bankruptcy or cessation of operations which is what the 15G represents.
Excellent factual numbers on how MRIB is already about to be worth $.002 a share and all of this has the current retail numbers based on 100% sell through of current shipped product and inventory.
2014 share price estimates based on actual production for the current year.
Current Production Capacity (Cases): 20,000 cases per month
Current Production Capacity (Containers): 10.5 containers per month (126 containers per year)
Actual Production (Cases): 1383
Revenue per bottle $17.54
Bottles per case = 6
Price per case = $105.24
Currently received container = $145,547 revenue
Production Revenue @ 20,000 cases per month = $2,104,800
Production Revenue @ 240,000 cases per year = $25,257,600
Actual Production Revenue @ 1,383 cases per year = $145,547
At 20% profit margin, the estimated Net Income at current production levels is $29,109 (P/E 40 = 0.002 share price)
However, due to their size and business model, I would estimate Marani can operate at a much lower cost than normal industry average.
30% profit margin: $29,109 (P/E 40 = 0.002 share price)
40% profit margin: $43,664 (P/E 40 = 0.003 share price)
American Greed is CNBC, right? Give it some time. LOL
Does anyone know what the sell in per Costco was? I just had a really interesting discussion with someone at Costco who read off where and how much Marani I could get. They have 1, repeat 1 reorder for 12 bottles at the Burbank store. Original inventory remains at remaining stores, all in the teens or greater. She read off the whole list. Seems they have sold very little. Again, the biggest selling store was Burbank who said they had five bottles in stock and a reorder for 12. A reorder is good news though! Feel free to call them. they're very helpful. But the bottom line is they may have sold a couple hundred bottles or so. Can't believe it's much more. Most stores had 20+ bottles on hand and I doubt they ordered much more than that. All 1L too. Al Hambra had 24 which I would assume is the residual of 3 nine 1L bottle cases or 4 6 bottle cases. Not looking good. The reorder from Burbank would indicate 6 bottle cases though which means Al Hambra sold 0. All in all, less than lackluster results. Soon to be pulled. I suggest you call them. She just reeled off the numbers for every store. Amazing that Marani can't do the same for its shareholders. I don't think they want to.
Ok, but the are not adding value, they are devaluing the stock in order to pay $100,000 a month in just salaries and operating expense. They've devalued your shares by 14% in the last 30 days. The hard part of that is I don't think anyone knew about that until today so the current price is certainly at lest 10% overvalued. What about these numbers that are very, very real are not understandable? They're very straight forward. You claim the company is doing things to increase shareholder value. Well, I don't see anything other than fluff PR. This wine deal was the topper. It's a non-existent company. Did the company really think we'd fall for that one? Have they not heard of the internet? Even if the company did exist, are they really serious thinking they can create, launch, manage, market, sell and support a NEW brand with no previous stature in the space? It's a $10M marketing proposition at best. I also don't see any synergy between brands. It's marketing 101. The only purpose of the association was to get people thinking more sales which like the Thai beer, Armenian Cognac and wine and every other hare brained scheme and announcement they've come up with. The only transparency here is the game plan between 2009 and now. I suspect Marani will close its doors as soon as they reach 700,000,000 OS. Who knows, maybe they'll give it a third try in another four or five years. And don't forget that either $2M of the first profit is already spoken for, or, they need to sell another 250 million or so shares before they can even get to a manageable loss.
They're not transparent at all. They've had plenty of time to report Costco sales. If they were good we would have heard for sure. They've had plenty of time to report Q2 numbers as well or at least give some guidance. They have not so I would think no good news there either. Other than a couple absolutely abstract and arbitrary, un-confirmable PR announcements we've heard nothing. They've apparently issued 77 million shares of stock without disclosure in a matter of thirty days. How can you call this company transparent? Meanwhile they have management doing all of this and a totally unacceptable BOD by public company standards which even the company admits in filings with no oversight. They can do whatever they want with stockholder's money. That's not a good situation. Last time around they took $6 million or so in cash, compensation and... what a joke... severance. Paaalease. And they did it before they shuttered the doors and before the final filing. We call that a midnight run.
Ok, thanks. So we're talking about a 14% dilution in thirty days. Hmmm. I think the spending money to make money thing is becoming a dangerous rationalization if not a delusional belief that the risk reward is worthwhile. And while companies will issue more stock at times in order to raise needed capital it's not something they really WANT to do. Also, it can't be the only or majority source of income which seems the case here. The big problem here is those 100 plus million shares for the year to date represent the need for an additional $2 million in net sales in order to maintain current PPS levels. That's a truckload and a half of gross sales. That's something like an additional 40 containers annually or 64,000 cases in addition to whatever they're doing now. WOW! This also assumes the company sells no more stock going forward which doesn't seem to fit the trend. The overall picture is getting murkier... at 536M OS they would need to generate over $2 in net, net, net sales to justify a price of $.018. And that profit is a far cry from the $2,500 reported for the first three months and just as far a cry from the $50,000 maximum that can be generated off of the one and only container received this year. I just can't understand how some folks are rationalizing this. The numbers are awful and seemingly totally out of reach. Anyone can sit down with pen and paper and figure this out.
BTW, anyone check out any Costcos lately? I'm curious as to whether they are still on the shelves as I know one store in Southern California no longer had it but they had seen it previously. As I said previously could be good in that they sold out. On the other hand it could have been pulled for lack of sales.
I've noticed sort of a trend of selective data release and updating but I just assumed it was a function of some of these sites and the way they mine data. If it is a matter of the company reporting and updating then it's very apparent they're doing it selectively and hiding certain aspects they don't want potential and/or existing shareholders to see. This is a very deceptive practice. In essence a lie by omission. What makes it worse is that the cherry picked "good" data and news gets exaggerated and amplified while the telling true data and news is essentially buried.