"Using your gross profit margin numbers:
If each store sold just 1 bottle a day (exclude: Christmas & Easter):
451 * 24 * ($13 * 6) =
Now becomes
451 * 363 * 13 = $2,128,269 gross using your adjusted margins formula. Thats still a lot of vodka for 1 per day which is low anyways. Some days, might have a customer buy 2 at one time. Not to mention all the other US ( such as: HiTimes which does sell out) and international distribution"
No, that's simply deceptive and misleading mathematics. Where does 363 come from BTW? Plus you're now representing that Marani will sell not just two cases per store but you've increased it to five! Your numbers didn't work so you upped the sales arbitrarily to make your numbers work with my accurate gross margin and net profit formulae. These are fantasy numbers. But you still ignore operating costs and net profit. Your numbers presentation is terribly misleading. When the numbers don't work with industry standard DD and pro formae just boost the sales up without substantiation or basis?
OK though. We'll do it your way which is a totally exaggerated sales expectation but still shows how weak the company is and how much freaking Vodka they would have to sell just to break even and support share price...
451 * 30 * $13 * 12 (stores, bottle a day, gross margin per bottle, months)
That's roughly $2.1 million in gross margin sales. Apply a 30% profit margin and the net comes out to roughly $634,000 and spread out over the heavily diluted o/s it's $.003 a share. They need to at least quadruple the pie in the sky estimates just to support the current stock PPS.
Summarily, IF they have every Costco in the world selling 5 cases a month which by the way would be 18 more containers annually than they have currently imported they might be high sub penny. Pipe dream on sales though. You also have to remember that Marani is a distributor not a manufacturer or proprietary producer. They are not going to get a high multiple. 7X would be market appropriate, 10X at most.
All of that said, the bottom line is Marani has to do Grey Goose numbers just to break even and if anyone thinks that's going to happen with 13 Costcos, two third tier distributors, a Facebook page, sponsorship of Armenian charities and esoteric boat races and other cheesey events you're fooling yourself. The branding is the big issue too because none of these pie in the sky estimates are even remotely possible with the efforts being made by the company. As I said before I got over five minutes of national broadcast TV time this coming Sunday on FOX and I probably paid less for it than Marani paid Money TV.
