full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Overhill Farms Sees $19M Cut In Rev For FY09 Due To H.J.'s Heinz's Decision
12:24 OFI Overhill Farms reports Q4 EPS of $0.15 vs $0.19 single analyst est; revs were flat YoY at $53.1 mln vs $60.0 mln single analyst estimate (4.48 +0.28)
The co reported that one of its customers, H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ), has indicated that they will be self-manufacturing a greater share of their volume requirements. As a result, Heinz expects to move significant volume out of the co's facilities beginning January 1, 2009. "Overhill projects a revenue reduction from this move of approximately $19 mln for our fiscal year, beginning in our second fiscal quarter." The Company is currently negotiating with Heinz for new volume and revised pricing for existing and future business. Offsetting the anticipated Heinz shortfall, Mr. Rudis said, will be $20 mln in new business commitments the co has received from retail and food service accounts. "This reflects our success in continually developing a pipeline of new business to both expand our revenues and to replace volume that may be lost due to market changes experienced by our customers. We believe our prospects for new business, both near-term and beyond, are strong."
AGT: Starting to wade back in now at .21 and lower.
Anybody else?
Come on in; the water's fine.
God Bless your sugarplums!
Didn't you hear? Our "free market" has been raped by the free marketeers; the current dilemma must be decided in favor of whatever helps stability. The Chinese were promoting stability when they rolled the tanks into Tienanmen Square, and the US Congress was promoting stability when they passed the TARP.
We can't just let 2million+ people be pushed out of work right now, as that would fuel more foreclosures. Many will lose their jobs anyway next year as part of the "fix".
All the political grandstanding is nauseating to me. I'm with Wade; something had to be done to prevent "trickle down" foreclosure economics.
'peeker
AGT-ZOWIE! Sold all mine at .31; actually turned a P_R_O_F_I_T (if that's how you spell it); WHEW and WOW!
I've not had many such quick rebounds like that this year.
Looking forward to buying back after the momo crescendo climax (more fun than I* porn).
AGT bridge loan is great news, but due to low price of the stock, it came at a pretty steep price in terms of warrants. Still there should be good reason for price to rise from current .15/sh to warrant exercise price of .22/sh.
LOL, so happy you could join in the conversation.
GORO ... I'm really disappointed to hear that they are selling 20% of company at only $3/sh ... As I recall the last shares were sold to the mkt around $4/sh.
It's also a surprise that they think they may need as much as $20 million additional capital before they could operate on cashflow from production, however, mgt must feel like their own equity stake increases if they can accelerate the underground mining to produce/sell more gold oz/yr. In one sense, I suppose, the additional capital ensures plenty of cash in an unsure credit environment, so this reduces risk and ensures they can get it done now.
It also appears that their "exit strategy" is to eventually sell out rather than hold their interest (equity stake) until long after production begins.
Last point: I think the investing partner will wait til the final permit is in before buying the the $15million, but the deal expresses the strong expectation that the last permit will be approved soon, that is, within the next "80 days".
Good luck to all GORO investers,
'peeker
OIL.to still looks like good buyout candidate rather than a bankruptcy candidate. Bought some yesterday around $1.65 to play for a move to $3+ as bidders become serious buyers of the company or particular coveted assets. Continued crude price upside will help this one benefit from additional serious bidders.
Bobwins said yesterday that their big problem lay with the 2 expensive drillships they operate, but production increases have impressive.
IMHO, I just can't see this one staying down here below $2 for much longer.
Are there any other strong believers in OIL.to (OILXF.pk) at the current price?
'peeker
The Lone Ranger was ambushed and captured by an Indian war party. The Chief proclaims, "So, you are the great Lone Ranger! In honor of the Harvest Festival, you will be executed in three days! But, before I kill you, I will grant you three requests. What is your first request?"
The Lone Ranger responds, "I'd like to speak to my horse."
The Chief nods and Silver is brought before the Lone Ranger who whispers in Silver's ear. The great horse gallops away.
Later that evening, Silver returns with a beautiful blonde woman on his back.
As the Chief watches, the blonde enters the Lone Ranger's tent and spends the night.
The next morning the Indian Chief admits he's impressed. "You have very fine and loyal horse, but I will still kill you in two days. What is your second request?"
The Lone Ranger again asks to speak to his horse. Silver is brought to him, and he again whispers in the horse's ear.
As before, Silver takes off across the plains and disappears over the horizon. Later that evening, to the Chief's surprise, Silver again returns, this time with a brunette, even more attractive than the blonde.
She enters the Lone Ranger's tent and spends the night.
The following morning the Chief is again impressed. "You are indeed a man of many talents, but I still kill you tomorrow. "What is your last request?"
The Lone Ranger responds, "I'd like to speak to my horse....ALONE."
The Chief is curious, but he agrees, and Silver is brought to the Lone Ranger's tent.
Once they're alone, the Lone Ranger grabs Silver by both ears, looks him square in the eye and says, "Listen very carefully, you dickhead, for the last time...........BRING POSSE!!!!"
DRYS has broken out to the upside with the upturn of the BDI (bulk drygoods index).
nice chart, but not sure it can really move ahead strongly.
opinions?
09:42 DRYS DryShips: Drybulk shippers show early strength on second day of gains in baltic dry index, positive analyst comments
Drybulk shipping stocks (DRYS +22%, TBSI +13%, GNK +10%, EXM +9%, EGLE +7%, DSX +4%) are showing notable strength for a second day in a row. This morning's gains come on a second consecutive uptick in the baltic dry index, which gained another 8 points (1.2%) to close at 679. Additionally, we're hearing a tier-1 firm is out with positive comments on the group, related to a pick-up in activity in Asia.
09:42 DRYS DryShips: Drybulk shippers show early strength on second day of gains in baltic dry index, positive analyst comments
Drybulk shipping stocks (DRYS +22%, TBSI +13%, GNK +10%, EXM +9%, EGLE +7%, DSX +4%) are showing notable strength for a second day in a row. This morning's gains come on a second consecutive uptick in the baltic dry index, which gained another 8 points (1.2%) to close at 679. Additionally, we're hearing a tier-1 firm is out with positive comments on the group, related to a pick-up in activity in Asia.
What's it worth?
Reading VMC FFA board? ... complete waste of time!
Daytrade: In & out of 1000sh PMGLF.pk at 5.25 and 6.25? ... $1000
Feeling arrogant and smart and smug? ... priceless ;>)
Tiny Tim was ahead of his time...
Next baby shoe to drop for financials:
11:01 Fox-Pitt says regional banks have only realized 11% of their potential loan losses - DJ
Before the open DJ reported that Fox-Pitt said regional banks have only realized 11% of their potential loan losses, or about $7.4 bln of $69 bln for 42 banks. Potential losses next year should be greater than in 2008. Most banks should receive government capital through TARP, firm says, but common capital raises will occur anyway over the next several years as loan losses will be absorbed by common capital, not the government's preferred capital. Firm says companies at the greatest risk of making dividend cuts as well include Regions Financial (RF), SunTrust (STI), Synovus (SNV), Umpqua (UMPQ), Zions (ZION) and possibly Renasant (RNST).
11:35 Fed's Kohn says banks pulling back from credit - Reuters.com
Reuters.com reports the financial crisis calls for banks to play a greater role in providing credit, but banks are currently tightening credit and curtailing lending as the economy weakens, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said. "One consequence of the distress in financial markets is that banks are being pushed to take a greater role in financial intermediation," Kohn said in remarks prepared for delivery to a housing forum organized by the Office of Thrift Supervision. While bank lending surged in the fall, it appears to have dropped back in recent weeks, Kohn said, "consistent with the significant tightening of terms and standards reported by bank loan officers in recent quarters as well as the weakening of economic activity." Banks are managing losses and worried about meeting funding needs, Kohn said. While banks are taking in more deposits, deposits alone cannot make up for reduced funding from other sources, he said. "The challenge for regulators and other authorities is to create an environment that supports greater bank intermediation, which should help to restore the health of the financial system and the economy," Kohn said. "We want banks to be willing to deploy capital and liquidity, but they must do so in a responsible way that avoids past mistakes and does not create new ones," he said.
Wade, I think there is a move to buy higher cap stocks (with their better liquidity) rather than the lower cap stocks. For example, stocks like TEX and FLR, which have high avg volume are both up about 20% as infrastructure plays that should benefit from Obamanomics. I heard somebody chatting on CNBC the other day talking about the opportunity to choose from many large, high-quality heavily-discounted companies that should have the necessary resources (capital) to make it thru to the other side of this economic downturn/recession/depression.
As for MVCO in particular, investors probably view MVCO as more of a takeover play at this point than an infrastructure play. At least that's the way I see MVCO; don't you?
JMHO - 'peeker
OIL.to, Bobwins, do you have any idea what may be a reasonable valuation per share if actually sold (assuming Morgan Stanley was hired to sell it all). They seem to have lots of proven reserves but lots of shares as well.
Particularly, do you expect it to catch a bid over $3 or $4 or $5/sh?
TIA,
'peeker
Asia getting the week off to a strong start ...
Good luck traders ...
'peeker
North sea explorer Oilexco mulls sale - report
Sun Dec 7, 2008 10:33am EST
LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Oilexco Inc (OIL.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), a Canadian oil explorer that operates in the North Sea, has been put up for sale, according to a report in the Sunday Times.
This comes weeks after the firm failed to find sources of funding and abandoned plans to raise as much as $150 million selling convertible debentures and to issue 20 million shares because its board considered the move too dilutive.
A source close to the company told Reuters that a sale of the company is "one of a number of options". He added that financing was still the preferred option, possibly through mezzanine debt or alternative sources of capital.
The firm has been looking for ways to pay for its exploration programmes in Britain's North Sea since early October when it said it was having difficulty closing a financing it had arranged with the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
The report said the company had already received interest from BG Group (BG.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Talisman Energy (TLM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Petro Canada (PCA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), whilst Danish shipping and oil group A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKb.CO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is also considering a bid.
Morgan Stanley has been appointed to review the options of the company.
Oilexco declined to comment on the report. (Reporting by Lorraine Turner, editing by Will Waterman)
OT: IMHO, the Texas Longhorns cannot be trusted to play fair and win a ball game any more than Congress and Wall Street can be trusted to play fair and spend your children's money. Furthermore, not even if Ron Paul likes em.
'peeker
;>) eh?
OT: Story of Stuff
Interesting perpective on issues associated with our consumer society. Though some stats seem overstated, the story is a reasonable representation of our unsustainable way of life.
http://www.storyofstuff.com/index.html
OT: Story of Stuff
Interesting perpective on issues associated with our consumer society. Though some stats seem overstated, the story is a reasonable representation of our unsustainable way of life.
http://www.storyofstuff.com/index.html
I wonder what George Carlin would have to say about this fine mess we've gotten ourselves into.
slugs: just put a little salt on the cabbage before they eat it.
MVCO: The bidder (Insight Equity) may be doing this because they've had trouble getting the loan to do the deal... afterall, there is a small credit crisis in America.
If Insight walks they just pay MVCO 1.5 million for the hassle, which I assume doesn't pay all MVCO's costs, but sobeit. If the buyer cannot come to closing with the money, MVCO continues as MVCO, and they've still got good numbers (at least for the trailing 12mos, not sure about the 12mos ahead). The price doesn't risk falling much from here assuming that the current PPS has discounted the failure of the sale.
I'll probably hold my 1K stake in this one and hope it makes up for the gazillion and a half dullers I've lost this yr in the mkt.
$6.88 now, so I guess MVCO is pretty safe for this day anyway.
'peeker
10:26 TECHX Crude Oil plunge approaches long term support -Update-
The continuous crude oil contract rocketed higher off its 2007 low (50) and 18 months later had reached 147. The size and pace of the move was shocking but now in a matter of just five months the contract has dropped as low at 42.00 today. This precipitous plunge has, however, brought the contract back near long term support in the 41/40 area. This marks the 1990 high, the 2003 high and the 2005 low (click for monthly chart).
MVCO: Meadow Valley Files Definitive Proxy Statement and Schedules Special Meeting of Stockholders to Approve Merger
Thursday 12/04/2008 4:50 PM ET - Businesswire
MEADOW VALLEY CORPORATION (NASDAQ:MVCO) announced that, to date, Meadow Valley Corporation ("Meadow Valley") and Phoenix Parent Corp. ("Investor") and Phoenix Merger Sub, Inc. ("Merger Sub"), both affiliates of Insight Equity I LP, have been unable to come to an agreement on an amendment to the Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement"), dated July 28, 2008, among Meadow Valley, Investor and Merger Sub, to resolve Investor's recent claim that Meadow Valley may have suffered a Material Adverse Effect (as defined in the Merger Agreement) as a result of an alleged decrease in the fair market value of Meadow Valley in excess of $6.0 million since July 28, 2008. The parties may continue to engage in discussions, although there is no assurance that will be the case. There is also no assurance that any such discussions would lead to a mutually agreeable resolution. Meadow Valley does not believe that there has been, or will be upon closing, a decrease in the fair market value of Meadow Valley in excess of $6.0 million, and intends to vigorously defend itself if Investor elects to terminate the Merger Agreement based on such a claim. The Merger Agreement remains in full force and effect and each of the parties thereto is proceeding on such basis. Meadow Valley filed its definitive proxy statement related to the merger today and has scheduled the Special Meeting of Stockholders to vote on the merger for December 26, 2008 at 11:00 a.m., Arizona time, at Doubletree Guest Suites, 320 North 44th Street, Phoenix, Arizona 85008. Meadow Valley's Board of Directors has set November 28, 2008 as the record date for the Special Meeting of Stockholders.
... and God will fill the bulletholes with candy.
Joan Baez
12:23 Crude oil continues to sell off setting new lows at $44.45, a level not seen Feb of 2005; currently off $2.25 to $44.54
MVCO: Nelson, thanks for pulling up the details from the agreement. Still, it seems that the potential buyer can still walk from the deal for a relatively small penalty, and since the market and MVCO market price have fallen so far since they inked the deal, they would probably still be wise to walk. What seemed like a great deal 5 months ago is no longer the steal they were after.
It will indeed be interesting to see if the deal eventually goes thru, at a lower price than negotiated initially, no doubt, but at a premium from the current stock price.
Good luck, but since I bought back in yesterday at 6.15 right before the close, I'd take $7 today to let it go, then hope for another opportunity to ride the volatility before they meet to hammer out the deal, probably in early January.
'peeker
MVCO material event was that the stock market fell off a cliff sometime after July deal was inked. That material event ( though not MVCO's fault) did reduce the value of MVCO by over $6million.
MVCO: The downside risk is that the market has fallen so much since July (interpreted as material effects that negatively impact MVCO value more than $6million). The buyer may also no longer wish to buy MVCO because financing is not available.
That said, I own a thousand shares, so I hope things bounce again today.
'peeker
Sucky Job Market out there ...
01:03 Monster Employment index declines in November
The Monster Employment Index fell seven points in November, as further economic uncertainty and workforce reductions continued to weigh on U.S. online recruitment activity. Year-over-year, the Index is now down 22.0%, with U.S. online job availability at its lowest level since 2004.
... and after the crummy investment year I've had, I was just out last nite talking to somebody about another contract IT "opportunity".
'peeker
EZEN ... KiK, I wish there was a URL that had an updated list of such cheap (trading below cash) companies. EZEN is at a good discount, but there is no reason to expect they would plan to pay off their loans and close the bldg; they really cannot, since their primary customer is the DoD. Therefore, they will continue spending on SW upgrades and support in excess of their SW maintenance income, meaning further losses, as their PR stated (when I reviewed the last PR, it was uncharacteristically candid about expectations of further losses ahead w/o any idea when things might turn around. Most CEOs would never be so glum about the future.)
IMHO ... still, after you bought around 1:45 (my guess) and posted, there was a nice surge in volume, so your recommendation appears to have prompted some buyers here. Good luck..
EZEN problem is that they have a product and customers to support (recurring labor costs) while sales are dropping. Their latest qtrly report was not at all optimistic. My point is simply that barring major good news (large new customer, sale of company, etc.) it will sit down here in the cellar and grow mold for awhile.\\IMHO//
It's not the only stock trading for less than cash.
'peeker
13:31 MVCO Meadow Valley entered into a letter agreement to extend the date it may terminate the merger agreement (6.70 -0.12)
Co announces that it entered into a letter agreement with Phoenix Parent and Phoenix Merger Sub, both affiliates Insight Equity I LP, pursuant to which the parties agreed to extend the date after which either Meadow Valley or Investor may terminate the merger agreement, dated as of July 28, 2008 between Meadow Valley, Investor and Merger Sub, from December 31, 2008 to January 7, 2009. The purpose of the extension is to allow the parties additional time to discuss a possible resolution to Investor's recent claim that Meadow Valley may have suffered a Material Adverse Effect (as defined in the Merger Agreement) as a result of an alleged decrease in the fair market value of Meadow Valley in excess of $6.0 million since July 28, 2008.
13:31 MVCO Meadow Valley entered into a letter agreement to extend the date it may terminate the merger agreement (6.70 -0.12)
Co announces that it entered into a letter agreement with Phoenix Parent and Phoenix Merger Sub, both affiliates Insight Equity I LP, pursuant to which the parties agreed to extend the date after which either Meadow Valley or Investor may terminate the merger agreement, dated as of July 28, 2008 between Meadow Valley, Investor and Merger Sub, from December 31, 2008 to January 7, 2009. The purpose of the extension is to allow the parties additional time to discuss a possible resolution to Investor's recent claim that Meadow Valley may have suffered a Material Adverse Effect (as defined in the Merger Agreement) as a result of an alleged decrease in the fair market value of Meadow Valley in excess of $6.0 million since July 28, 2008.
DoD Communicates with Local Law Enforcement
Two California Highway Patrol Officers were conducting speeding enforcement on I-15, just north of the Marine Corps Air Station at Miramar . One of the officers was using a hand held radar device to check speeding vehicles approaching the crest of a hill. The officers were suddenly surprised when the radar gun began reading 300 miles per hour. The officer attempted to reset the radar gun, but it would not reset and then turned off.
Just then a deafening roar over the treetops revealed that the radar had in fact locked on to a USMC F/A-18 Hornet which was engaged in a low flying exercise near the location.
~ ~ ~
Back at the CHP Headquarters the Patrol Captain fired off a complaint to the USMC Base Commander.
The reply came back in true USMC style:
Thank you for your letter. We can now complete the file on this incident.
You may be interested to know that the tactical computer in the Hornet had detected the presence of, and subsequently locked on to your hostile radar equipment and automatically sent a jamming signal back to it, which is why it shut down.
Furthermore, an Air-to-Ground missile aboard the fully armed aircraft had also automatically locked on to your equipment location.
Fortunately, the Marine Pilot flying the Hornet recognized the situation for what it was, quickly responded to the missile system alert status and was able to override the automated defense system before the missile was launched to destroy the hostile radar position.
The pilot also suggests you cover your mouths when cussing at them, since the video systems on these jets are very high tech. He also suggests that Sergeant Johnson, the officer holding the radar gun, consider getting his dentist to check the left rear molar. It appears the filling is loose. Also, the snap is broken on his holster.
Thank you for your concern.
Semper Fi.
WEBB: Bravo and Congrats to all those left hanging in the WEBB. Let's hope MVCO comes thru as well.
WEBB has been my steadiest investment over the recent high-VIX past, so I'm elated it will pay as promised.
The remaining question is whether WEBB will have any residual value per share after paying out the dividend. The market at .31x.32 is giving WEBB no value whatsoever beyond the 32cent dividend.
'peeker
PS> Now gotta run to the polls and vote against the Saxby-Palin ticket in the GA election runoff.