full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Yo, is anybody here using Tradestation? I'm thinking of starting an acct there so I can use a tech trading tool my bro-in-law came up with.
Fees are a bit confusing, but it appears I can opt for a flat fee for trades and the $99/mo platform fee is waived if I trade as few as 5000sh/mo.
Any impressions of Tradestation by existing or previous users (or pointers to any known Tradestation discussion boards) would be much appreciated.
TIA - 'peeker
1,3,6,7,9,12,14,16,18,19,21,24
Wonderful news! It sounds like he has negotiated payments to allow a substantial ongoing salary for the CEO in future years. That certainly seems like the Christian thing for Dick Biscuit to do. Praise the Lord & pass the biscuits, please!
I'd like to apologize to all the remaining "believers" for my contempt, sarcasm, and cynicism, but I've just learned in the last couple of years that the liar in charge at TRGD cannot be trusted to look after shareholder interests.
'peeker
kozuh, whooo hoooo, it's early yet, and I've already offended 11% of your sensibilities, but no, God was kind, but I've got no inside track on brainworks, just sarcasmworks.
Happy New Year!
'peeker
Kozuh, just curious, are they pierced, and does the mental excess make up for any unannounced physical deficit (theoretically, of course)?
Is reincarnation next?
CSM.to/SMC, LRR.to/LGCFF.pk:
c|001, thanks for the detailed perspective. You must be assuming (probably rightly so) that if another suitor comes along to bid for CSR.to/SMC by end of January, then the new bid would be too high for LRR.to to match, right?
Your info helps me feel more comfortable with the risk:reward associated with holding my SMC to see if any other bids surface in the near term.
If LRR.to actually succeeds in taking CSR.to out on the cheap, the question would then be ..... who might be interested in the new LRR.to that includes the valuable CSR.to assets. LRR.to may be buying CSR.to now so that they will eventually be bought out themselves, and they think owning CSM.to is the best way to sell all their marbles at a much-improved stock price down the road.
'peeker
SCM: c|001, good info on their potential for a bid from AUY.
Did SCM mgt tell you anything to indicate they may enter talks with AUY?
Do you see the LRR "letter agreement" as a way to get AUY to take action?
'peeker
PS> I added at .24 this morning when it dropped back around 10:48, so I'm ready to sit back and wait on it, but I'm watching LRR.to closely as any short-term drop there would predict a short-term drop on SMC as well, as they are now very closely linked by the "letter agreement".
SMC ... sounds like you may be a little optimistic.
Due to their agreement, the LRR price is now creating a ceiling for SMC price. If another offer comes thru, SMC can move on up, but there's not a whole lotta time left for bidders to surface with approved financing in hand, so any other potential bidder would HAVE to have the cash to do the deal.
SMC trading ahead of .4 x LRR.to at this point, adjusted for $C vs. $US, so may be reasonable to take some SMC off the table?
Point is that the LRR.to price should now be the driver of SMC price. This is now an arbitrage play, and SMC no longer moves entirely on its own momentum.
09:38 APWR A-Power Energy estimates and target cut to $7 at Roth following site visit (5.00 -0.09)
Roth visited APWR's Shenyang wind turbine facility today. Their observations support their cautious near-term outlook. They expect no wind segment revenue during 4Q08 and a slower ramp during FY09. Furthermore, observed temperatures in key DG locations support their contention that a substantial portion of the company's backlog is suspended for winter and puts the company's FY08 net income guidance of $35-45 mln at risk. They are lowering their '08 and '09 EPS estimates to $0.90 and $1.38 from $0.93 and $1.60 respectively ($1.01/$1.72 consensus) to reflect their updated outlook. They are are lowering their tgt to $7 from $10, reflecting their downwardly revised estimates and a slightly more conservative multiple.
11:23 The uncertainties around Chinese economic data-gathering make it hard to tell how much the economy is slowing - WSJ
WSJ reports China's economy is slowing. By just how much is a bit of a guess. The uncertainties around Chinese economic data-gathering make it hard to tell. Yet with China likely to be one of the few major economies to show growth next year, the question is pretty crucial. Already there are concerns Beijing could massage its GDP data next year. Keeping the annual growth rate above 8% has for long been the sine qua non of Chinese economic policy. That rate was 9% in the third quarter, and all the economic news since then points to a lower rate in the past three months of this year. Any dip below 8%, however temporary, would be a blow to the government's standing. Having announced a $586 billion fiscal-stimulus package this autumn, the government needs to show that it has worked by next year. For economists, the key frustration in China's GDP figures is the lack of a quarterly expenditure breakdown to balance the output figures that the statistics bureau provides... Stephen Green, Standard Chartered's head of research, tracks a mixture of industrial goods production, freight activity, bank-credit growth and commodities imports to derive a measure of real activity in China. That is currently showing "very weak" growth momentum going into the first part of 2009. China's own industry minister has said industrial output needs to expand by 12% next year if the economy is to retain its 8% expansion rate. In November, industrial production grew by just 5.4% on an annual basis.
egad ... SMC bought on the cheap ... Madoffed again!
10:35 COMDX Dept of Energy inventory data
The Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 3.101 mln barrels for the week ending Dec 19 (consensus is a build of 500K); distillate inventories had a build of 1.814 mln (consensus is a build of 700K); gasoline inventories had a build of 3.336 mln (consensus is a build of 750K).
Advice for Bernie Madoff"
1. Pull down your pants
2. Assume Inverse Cranial Recto position to kiss your sweet ass goodbye.
3. Pull up your pants
4. Open window
5. Put an apple in your mouth
6. Jump
OILXF.pk
AGT: Did you get the feeling that the AGT seller needs to unload all of their AGT?
2.6million shares is a lot, but the remaining 20million would not be easily absorbed in this market w/ less than 200K daily volume (like today).
Food for thought:
Was the Paulson's TARP a gift from Bush to "his base"?
Ari, come on. Bernie Madoff is to blame, not the FED, not the cops, not Bernie's mom.
The SOB oughta be shot, hung, and and burned on a bridge. The cop's job is to cut him down and throw the carcass in the river.
Merry Christmas to you, and Happy Honnika to most of his victims.
AGT is traded on AMEX
14:56 US farmers, retailers locked in fertilizer sales standoff - DJ
DJ reports a high-stakes game of chicken is unfolding between farmers and fertilizer retailers as they negotiate who will absorb a record-priced fertilizer inventory unsupported by the current economic situation. Farmers are looking at negative margins and cash corn prices 14% lower than last December, while retailers are holding fertilizer bought at the top of the market this spring and summer. Farmers are holding off purchasing inputs, hoping retailers will accept the loss and lower their prices, but retailers are limited in the losses they can stomach. In Missouri, prices for urea nitrogen and phosphate have dropped about 35% since mid-summer, to 45 cents a pound and 75 cents, respectively. Phosphate is down about 25% to around 55 cents a pound.
14:30 S&P cuts 22 ratings on 10 U.S. Prime Jumbo RMBS transactions from '03, '04
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its ratings on 22 classes of mortgage pass-through certificates from 10 U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities transactions backed by prime jumbo mortgage collateral issued in 2003 and 2004. At the same time, S&P affirmed ratings on 906 classes from 25 transactions, including those with lowered ratings. The downgrades reflect declining actual credit support and negative projected credit support, which is insufficient to support the ratings at their previous levels. Based on the dollar amount of loans currently in the delinquency pipeline of the affected deals, losses are projected to further reduce credit support. In addition, current credit support for the classes downgraded to 'CC' and 'CCC' may not be sufficient to fully cover projected losses. The seasoning of these deals ranged from 48 months to 65 months as of the October 2008 distribution period. Cumulative losses for the downgraded transactions ranged from 0.00% to 0.23% of the original pool balances. Total delinquencies from these same transactions ranged from 0.84% to 20.44% of the current pool balances, while severe delinquencies (90-plus days, foreclosures, and real estate owned [REO]) ranged from 0.35% to 12.27% of the current pool balances. The affirmations reflect actual and projected credit enhancement percentages that are sufficient to support the current ratings. A senior-subordinate structure provides credit support for transactions with lowered and affirmed ratings. The collateral backing the certificates originally consisted of 15- to 30-year, prime jumbo fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgage loans secured by one- to four-family residential properties.
Bernie Madoff should not be incarcerated; he should be disemboweled and fed to other sharks.
Bob, I appreciate your optimism, but if Hochschild does buy up to 40%, they will be in control, not the Reids.
But regardless of Reid+Hochschild goodness or badness, I believe that the increased insider ownership raises risk that GORO insiders will eventually do a "take under", that is, buy all remaining public float at a discount sometime within 2 years; when money/credit is available to do so.
In summary, my only point here is that I no longer can give much credence to the Reid's previous optimistic projection of GORO at over $15/sh within 2 years.
Merry Regards, and Best Christmas!!!
'peeker
PS> Maybe I'm just tired of seeing the public shareholder get Madoffed!
GORO: Concerned that too much insider ownership may hurt us little guys.
As I understand it, GORO mgt owns 30% of outstanding, another company owns approx 10% (therefore insider), and Hochschild, headquartered in Peru, just bought 5% (new issue shares). In fact Hochschild has the right and will probably buy additional 15% (new issue shares at $3/sh) within the next 60 days and gain a seat on the board. Thus within two months, 60% of GORO shares will be owned by insiders. However, Hochschild will have the option to buy up to 20% more in the open market, increasing its ownership to 40% of the company, and gain a second seat on the board of directors. At that point, insiders will own 80% of GORO, leaving only 20% of outstanding shares in non-insider hands.
Such a low public float and negligible public voting rights will allow GORO mgt to manage the company to their own best benefit. This could easily result in buyout of public shares at a discount, thereby removing much of the benefit we've been led to expect down the road as mining got underway.
In my little mind, this situation diminishes the potential that GORO would ever reach $15+/share within the next two years (as implied in past GORO presentations).
Anybody else worried about this situation?
'peeker
PS> Yes, I know the market sees no problem with the situation today, as the stock is back up to $3.45, but I believe the recent deal with Hochschild has put limits on the eventual upside (for us public shareholders).
Oil Storage business thriving due crude oil glut.
Interesting article on impact to crude oil futures prices due to the high cost of storage. Crude prices have been driven down by futures sellers who sold futures (e.g., current month) rather than bear the high cost of storage.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-storage-business-thriving-players/story.aspx?guid={89DA63F6-92EF-4892-8BDA-196EF1FD6634}&siteid=yahoomy
Hence:
14:07 Jan crude oil moves towards session lows at $33.44 with about ~25 min left in pit trade; now off $2.52 to $33.70
Feb crude is higher by 36 cents to $42.03
Should we consider life on Mars if we don't like it here?
http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/supercomputers/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=212501435&cid=RSSfeed_IWK_News
14:41 NYMEX Energy Closing Prices
Jan crude oil finished lower by $3.32 to $36.74 while Feb crude oil lost $2.55 to end at $42.06. Natural gas lost 6.2 cents to $5.557, heating oil fell 5.43 cents to $1.3882 and RBOB gasoline ended down 3.45 cents to $97.10.
14:28 Jan crude oil continues to tumble, as the equity markets pull back sharply, setting lows at $36.30; with about ~3 min left in pit trade it is currently off $3.70 to $36.36
Whorendous!
Nevermind, we'll never be able to get the votes ...
Buy KIK; Sell BB
Might it be about time to initiate impeachment proceedings due to curtailment of free speech?
OIL.to is pretty hard to evaluate currently with the recent drop due to the announcement they had to do an expensive bridge loan (for only 6 wks) during "extended negotiations".
IMHO they probably do have several companies interested in buying some but not all of OIL.to's assets, especially with the current low crude prices/bbl, so the eventual payout to shareholders should not be at a major premium to underlying assets. I do expect it to be worth more than a dollar a share though.
Any other opinions or rumors about OIL.to's prospects for buyout offers?
'peeker
Oilexco Provides Financing Update
Wednesday December 17, 12:02 pm ET
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Dec. 17, 2008) - Oilexco Incorporated ("Oilexco" or "the Company") (TSX:OIL - News; LSE:OIL - News) announced that the Company, The Royal Bank of Scotland PLC ("RBS") and the Company's banking syndicate (together, the "Banks") have agreed the lending of up to $47.5 million to Oilexco repayable on demand with a maturity date of January 31, 2009.
Further to the Company's announcement on November 20, 2008, Oilexco, alongside Morgan Stanley & Co Limited ("Morgan Stanley") and Merrill Lynch International ("Merrill Lynch"), continues to progress the evaluation of a variety of additional financing options and strategic alternatives, and discussions are ongoing with a number of parties concerning a potential investment in the Company or an acquisition of the Company and/or some or all of its assets (the "Potential Transaction"). However, there can be no certainty that any binding offers will be received or accepted or that any Potential Transaction will be completed.
In connection with the $47.5 million bridge financing, Oilexco has agreed to certain cash fees, and margin increases. The cash fees payable will range from approximately $5 million to approximately $37.5 million if all specified events occur such as the repayment of all indebtedness owed by the Company to the Banks being approximately $700 million assuming drawdown of the entire bridge facility. In addition, in recognition of the continued support of the Company by the Banks, the Company has agreed to pay them an equity success fee upon the occurrence of certain events. In each case the specified events require a successful conclusion of the sale or recapitalization of the Company such that the Banks can participate in such a transaction pari passu with all common shareholders of Oilexco. The equity success fee will be payable in the form of common shares of Oilexco provided that certain legal and regulatory considerations can be satisfied. The maximum number of shares that could be issued to the Banks is equal to 24.9% of Oilexco's total issued and outstanding common shares from time to time (being, on today's date 55,527,000 common shares).
While there is no assurance that further advances will be forthcoming as incremental funding is likely to be required in the short term, the Banks have agreed that if any further advances are made prior to January 31, 2009, no additional success, equity-based or waiver fee will be required.
At this stage, as outlined at the time of the Company's Q3 results on November 12, 2008, Oilexco's cash flow from operating activities and the bridge facility announced today will not be sufficient to satisfy both its current obligations and the requirements of capital investment programs. The continued ability of the Company to undertake its capital investment and business plans in the short term is dependent on its ability to obtain additional financing and the continued support of its creditors.
Arthur Millholland, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "We would like to thank our syndicate of banks, led by RBS, and our trade creditors for their continued support in these difficult times. While there can be no assurances, we believe that the strength of our asset base combined with the corporate and financial interest that has been received to date, the Board remains focused on achieving a satisfactory outcome to our strategic and financing initiatives in the near future."
About the Company
Oilexco is an oil and gas exploration and production company active in the United Kingdom. Oilexco's producing properties, exploration and development activities are located in the UK Central North Sea, specifically in the Outer Moray Firth and Central Graben areas. Oilexco operates in the United Kingdom through its wholly owned subsidiary, Oilexco North Sea Limited, a company registered under the laws of England and Wales. Oilexco shares are listed for trading on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol "OIL".
Forward Looking Statements
This disclosure contains certain forward-looking statements that involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond Oilexco's control, including: the impact of general economic conditions in the areas in which Oilexco operates, civil unrest, industry conditions, changes in laws and regulations including the adoption of new environmental laws and regulations and changes in how they are interpreted and enforced, increased competition, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, fluctuations in commodity prices, foreign exchange or interest rates, stock market volatility and obtaining required approvals of regulatory authorities. In addition there are risks and uncertainties associated with oil and gas operations, therefore Oilexco's actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits, including the amounts of proceeds, which Oilexco will derive therefrom. All statements included in this press release that address activities, events or developments that Oilexco expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. These statements include future production rates, completion and production timetables and costs to complete wells, and production facilities. These statements are based on assumptions made by Oilexco based on its experience perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances.
Please note that Morgan Stanley is acting exclusively for the Company and Oilexco North Sea Limited and no one else in relation to the Potential Transaction and will not be responsible to any person other than the Company and Oilexco North Sea Limited for providing the protections afforded to clients of Morgan Stanley nor for providing advice in connection with the Potential Transaction or in relation to the contents of this announcement or any other matters referred to herein.
Please note that Merrill Lynch International is acting exclusively for the Company and Oilexco North Sea Limited and no one else in relation to the Potential Transaction and will not be responsible to any person other than the Company and Oilexco North Sea Limited for providing the protections afforded to clients of Merrill Lynch International or for providing advice in connection with the Potential Transaction or in relation to the contents of this announcement or any other matters referred to herein.
AGT: Just did the .21 to .23 scalp today. Must still be some hungry buyers out there, but they don't order til the kitchen's about to close.
Also I found it interesting again that Ameritrade sold my shares at .23 when my limit sell order was for .222/sh, so I don't understand their game, but I'll take it.
'peeker
AGT: Thanks for the feedback. I had hoped the int rate cut would lead to a pop today, but no luck w/ that afterall, though bigger companies like AUY and GG responded well after the rate cut.
AGT: I just dipped back in at .21 to see if it can garner attention again. Oops! Appears I may be "early", which would be better than foolish. Any opinions on AGT at this price?
TIA,
'peeker
09:52 FTK Flotek Industries downgraded before the open to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $5 (3.20 +0.15)
Before the open, RBC Capital Mkts downgraded FTK to Sector Perform from Outperform and lowers their tgt to $5 from $8, to account for the co's limited financial flexibility relative to peers, which, in firm's view, will restrict FTK from taking advantage of attractive acquisition/organic growth opportunities that will likely be seen during the impending downturn. Similarly, based on their new 2009 expectations, they believe the co will breach its leverage ratio covenant in 3Q09. Firm also cut their FY09 EPS est to $0.46 from $0.92.
10:13 VPHM ViroPharma: FDA draft guidance for generic Vancocin a near term negative- Oppenheimer (12.15 -0.45) -Update-
Oppenheimer says the FDA has issued draft guidance for generic Vancocin, effectively supporting in-vitro bioequivalence studies with no additional clinical trials, suggesting generic approval may be likely near term. The firm says resolution of the Vancocin overhang is a near-term negative, but it will shift focus to the Cinryze launch and upcoming Maribavir data. Firm lowers their 2009 EPS based on anticipated generic Vancocin approval in early 2009, to $0.62 vs $1.16 (consensus is $0.63).
AGT scalped (me feel like Tonto, Kimosabe):
Bought 25Ksh at .21 this AM and then decided to just sell for 10% profit on the day, selling shares .2355-.24
Interesting observation: I use Ameritrade. When I put my buy limit order in, the Bid went to my buy offer price, but when I put my sell limit price in, the Ask stayed above my offer to sell, and in fact all my shares were sold above the limit sell price. I was just surprised to see that my limit sell order did not drop the ASK price to my sell limit price of .235 (??? hmmm headscratch headscratch ???)
I would have thought AMTD had to enter my sell limit price on the ASK side, but the market makers never obliged.