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Spoke to someone who worked at RVNC, not an employee now, and they think RVNC has a manufacturing short fall just like they did with the cosmetic launch which is the reason for the delay.
Any thoughts why RVNC or any company would have an investor conference call at 9:30am when to market opens?
Every other RVNC conference call has been at 4;30pm after the market closes.
Thank you Dee..was confused by the wording in the Interactive Broker page which says “Purchase”
Interactive Brokers published this purchase on their site…are you saying the information on Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is incorrect?
Did you see Foley purchase 21,500 shares on August 11th for $385,000.
MHO - RVNC can not determine what each practice is charging for Daxi...
My point is patients are not able and/or willing to pay a high premium for Daxi. The patient price for Daxi needs to come down which will HUGELY increase sales and patient adoption. Daxi is a superior toxin and needs to be price according to what the cosmetic market can afford.
MHO is that there is not enough toxin users who have the dollars to pay double the price for Daxi. Botox patients return on average every 6 months…so the typical patient waits until Botox is completely metabolized…no duration of effect remaining..and then a bell goes off in their brain and they want to be injected within 5 days.
Patients have limited funds…there simply are not enough cosmetic toxin patients who want to pay double!
Daxi Duration can be best described as double the duration of Botox.
If a patient gets 50 units of Botox and they get 2.5 months of duration from Botox, this patient if injected with 100 units of Daxi (must be double) will get 5 months of duration. Each patient metabolizes toxin at a different rate. On average, a typical Botox patient gets 3 months and on average is the same patient if injected with Daxi, they will get 6 months of duration!
The Daxi magic is the peptide which within 2 days finds and binds with the receptor. This is the "quick onset" of Daxi and the efficiency of Daxi. The active ingredient of Daxi is not just floating around inside the skin like Botox which takes 10 to 14 days to attach. With Botox some of the active ingredient eventually finds the receptor which is why it take so long. Botox also attaches to other tissue...who know where is goes. With Daxi, a much great amount (double) of the active ingredient attaches to the receptor which is why Daxi last double the duration with the SAME amount of active ingredient. Botox 50 units and Daxi 100 units are the SAME amount of active ingredient! The Peptide and the quick attachment also link directly to the LOW ADVERSE EVENTS of Daxi....
Do you want Botox floating around inside your skin for 14 days...this is why Botox has much higher Adverse Events in all their clinical trials....who knows where that toxin is attaching....
I agree the MedSpa Chains typically make 15% Net Profit. They are less profitable and have more issues than the Owner Operated Practices. The MedSpa Chains typically attract the price sensitive patients which is why the MedSpa Chains have not adopted the higher priced Daxi Toxin. MedSpa patients have limited funds, If RVNC drops the prices for Daxi, many MedSpa Chains will begin offering this product, do to the higher profit margin,
Owner Operated Aesthetic Practices are selling Daxi. If Patients begin to request Daxi, the sales will increase very quickly. The number 1 Barrier to purchase for all Aesthetic Patients is "Price", Each patient has XXX dollars and they allocated this amount to the products which give them the best overall outcome! RVNC has been recommending a price of $9.75 per unit...a patient gets 100 units, the cost is $975....versus 50 units of Botox at $12 costs $600. less $50 = $550...the price premium for Daxi is too much...Daxi should be 10% to 15% premium...should cost $650 for Daxi and then patients would be asking for the Daxi and sales would boom!
JMHO
A typical aesthetic practice owner makes 45% net profit on everything they do and 20% net profit on hired providers…most owner injectors are taking home between $500,000 and $1,500,000 per year! Aesthetic injector owners make a lot of money!!!
Patients asking for Daxi is the magic! Why do you see so many Pharma companies advertise on TV. They know doctors give patients what they want…doctors are not sales people and hate to sell!
JMHO
I agree that advertising price could lead to lower profit margins for Daxi…but Daxi already has greater profit than Botox or Dysport due to the profit per unit! Daxi will always be more profitable!
Advertising price will create more media impressions which will educate patients and drive greater sales! The price needs to come down!
Does Tesla not allow advertising of price? Of course they do…they want to educate consumers and sell cars!
RVNC wants to educate patients and sell Daxi. The end goal is to create patient demand and take toxin market share as well as build a new market for a longer duration product! There are not enough patients in the market to just build new market…they have to convert current toxin patients to longer duration toxin patients!
JMHO
Hopefully, the RVNC management team will approve and begin offer a Discount Pricing Program and lower unit prices to all accounts who buy both Daxi and RHA. RVNC should give their sales team a tool to take 100% of each practice’s business! Once RVNC achieves their desired 30% market share, they can slowly increase prices.
RVNC is also shooting itself in the foot by not allowing price to be advertised! The more media impressions the better! Why do you want to keep the benefits of any product a secret!
This is a longer lasting product which has a few other benefits! Sell the product for it’s benefits…don’t make up your own definition!
Allegan and Galderma can not complete with lower prices… RVNC management needs to attack the weakness of their competitors!!!
Thank you !
Always appreciate your thoughts and ideas!
The RVNC Discount Program is for large accounts buying both Daxi and RHA..this discount is only for large accounts and may or may not be passed on the patient!
The Prestige Princing strategy was that patients would pay more for a longer duration product which is true but the adoption rate is low because most patients are already struggling just to pay for a 3 month toxin. Their theory that 30% of patients would pay more is not happening!
The choice is get much closer to the 3 months toxin and take market share or sputter along with the low market share they are achieving!
The issue is they don’t have time to sputter as their cash burn is a growing issue! RVNC could always take market share, then slowly raise price…Allergan did this for 20 yrs.
Also the Prestige Pricing Strategy that RVNC has referenced on several of their conferences calls is not producing sales growth!
Botox and Dysport patients are not moving to the longer duration product with the higher price! RVNC has the ability to lower this price which would generate faster adoption and greater revenue which is needed to achieve breakeven. Patients are loyal to Botox and Dysport due to their rewards programs. Most patients return for Botox/Dysport every 6 months…why pay a premium for a 6 month toxin when I am already stretched with Botox/Dysport! Allegan and Galderma can not lower unit price due to the negative impact on government best price with therapeutic.
Price has always been the #1 barrier to entry for new and existing toxin patients!!!
Always appreciate your thoughts on RVNC.
Everything I wrote was factual and without emotion!
I hope you can focus on RVNC and not attacking others on this board. Please continue to share your thoughts on RVNC and we will all do the same! This is a non aggressive form !
Thank you
I am long RVNC and want a BO price of $55 to $65 as Dee noted…
My point is, with this low stock price, they are quickly becoming an easy take over target because investors have lost faith in Foley! Foley has misrepresented the truth several times either directly or through omission of facts! The market does not believe he can lead this company which is why the price continues to drop. The market wants their investment back so that they can at least get 5%…RVNC has gotten everything they asked for from the FDA…approval and label…who else could cause this mess!
It RVNC marketing team is just now putting together a CD training plan, OMG.. Daxxify is an amazing product and the average RVNC rep grew their monthly Daxi territory sales by $16,000, which is 20 patients or 1 additional patients per business day! OMG. A typical rep should be calling on at least 100 accounts…and all they could grow was 1 patient per day. Toxin sales are growing between 12% and 15% per year so their quarter to quarter sales should grow a minimum of 2 million dollars just with market growth. Subtract the market growth, and the average rep grew 14 patients per month. Something is wrong with their pricing/market strategy especially when you are burning millions of dollars everyday.
I hope Foley pulls a BO offer out of his pocket.
If an investor offer $25 or $28 per share, there would be a lot of takers!
Or if Foley resigned, the price would go up!
As the RVNC stock price continues to nose dive, the probability of a buy out or hostile takeover is more and more likely! This could end soon😊
Maybe that is what Foley wants🎊
Sorry for the confusion ....I did not state my point correctly.
My thoughts were that all the CD Training Materials should have been completed 2 to 4 months ago...Now that CD Daxxify is FDA Approved, RVNC could immediately start training the CD injectors and allowing them to inject....there are only an estimated 2,000 CD Accounts versus 40,000 Cosmetic Accounts. And these CD Daxxify Clinical injectors should have been involved/wrote the of the CD Daxxify Injector Training Manuals...these doctors know this technique inside and out..
Hiring a therapeutic sales team will take a minimum of 2 months and another month to train…Plus they need MSLs. These therapeutic jobs will be list on their website and they have to be listed for a documented amount of days. The point is RVNC is burning expense money everyday and forgoing CD Daxxify sales dollars which would come from big teaching hospitals who are begging for a better product than Botox. The FDA approved Daxxify for CD a week early due to the amazing benefits and RVNC is sitting on it…just does not make sense! CD Daxxify sales are much easier than Cosmetic Daxxify sales…why stop the easy train?
The cosmetic PREV program was to ensure proper rollout and was also because there was a limited amount of Daxxify product to ship! They did not want to go into back order by selling too much to fast which was not explained until the end! There was big reason for the PREV and the slow roll…limited product!
Per my knowledge, the limited Daxxify product issue has been resolved. That should not be a CD Daxxify concern?
The RVNC management team are all very astute decision makers…why would they put their thumb on a product which would fly out the door and patients are waiting for. The CD Daxxify doctor training and planning should have been completed 2 to 4 months ago if RVNC was selling this product themselves….they should be loaded and ready…:why delay a good product…only conclusion is that there is additional steps needed to bring CD Daxxify to market and the management team is not allowed to share the full story. Again, a story behind the story!
My gut says the reason they did the ATM $100 million was just in case the BO did not get approved, they would have funds to build a therapeutic sales team. The RVNC management team will always have cash in their bank to ensure funds for any situation!
JMHO.
Just thinking out loud..would like thoughts from all of you:
-RVNC has not recruited or even started to create a therapeutic sales team
-RVNC has approval for CD and off label therapeutic sales of over 3 Billion per year
-RVNC has scheduled an investor conference call sometime in September
-RVNC will not ship until sometime in 2024
-RVNC created their cosmetic sales force 3 months prior to cosmetic approval..which was delayed and they sold RHA only.
-RVNC now has manufacturing capacity to meet demand per the new shipping location
-if RVNC has a BO offer both parties have to submit paperwork to the FTC for approval prior to announcing the BO. The FTC has 30 days to respond which would be sometime in September
-it would appear that RVNC had a BO offer in hand ( remember, Foley said “enjoy the ride” which means a start and end) and per the approval of CD, this offer is now being submitted to the FTC which supports why there is no therapeutic sales force, no sense of urgency and why the CD Daxxify would be available in 2024 as the purchasing company needs to train their already existing Therapeutic sales team on Daxxify.
What are your thoughts?
The RVNC sales force is now rolling out additional price discounts to large accounts who purchase both Daxxify and RHA which is the top concern of large multi location practices/MedSpas. These companies are all about net profit! They now get a lower price for both..these large volume discounts are just being rolled out in the past few days.
Their profit revenue per hour will increase significantly when they switch to Daxxify versus other toxins and RHA is priced lower than competitor products!
RVNC is getting more aggressive with pricing.
RVNC is a target company with both therapeutic and cosmetic approval ( and both USA and international soon) with revenue potential of significantly over $1 Billion for the $700 Billion in cash available in the pharmaceutical industry!
Many pharmaceutical companies have patented products expiring by 2030 and need new revenue streams according to Goldman Sachs.
The question is when???
Revance just announced approval of CD on Instagram 🎊
Just for the information purposes:
-all medical staff and professionals are required by FDA guidelines to personally report within 24 hours any and all adverse patient events with the patient name, date, adverse event, and name and address of provider! If this practice is “telling the rep”, they are 100% out of compliance and open to a FDA audit which includes fines and loss of licenses.
Additionally, if this practice is spreading false information about a FDA approved product on any public form, they are again open to a lawsuit from Revance and the FDA. This again, will involve thousands of dollars!
Revance monitors all public forms!
This guy sounds like a total idiot and the best thing he could do is cease and desist immediately! I guarantee this practice will be presented with a lawsuit!
Revance and Evolus both support each other and don’t compete for the same patient. Evolus is going after the low cost patient and Revance is targeting the long duration patient.
Remember, Allergan is a very dirty company and will legally attack every company in an effort to intimidate and cause pain even if Allergan has no case. That is why many doctors don’t like Allergan…they are bullies to competitors and to their practices…they make practices buy all products to get the best price…is that ethical for medical???
I agree that Jeuveau is doing a great job..too bad we can not swap the Evolus and Revance management teams..🙄🙄. Jeuveau is much harder to sell than Daxxify and Evolus management are doing an amazing job!
But also remember, Daxxify product was very limited the first 2 quarters the product was being sold. Revance was in a different spot with a very limited amount of product. Q2 will be the first quarter that Revance can provide staff training vials. Both Evolus and Allergan provide Staff training vials to practices for free…injectors signs saying they will not sell…ALL the injectors sell the staff training and the reps reference these vials …now Revance can play this same game! Cosmetic injectors are all about making money.
The clinical trial for Daxxify was with over 3000 patients…cosmetic injectors also hype dilute toxins…to make more money…if you are not getting double the duration of Botox, I would suspect you are not giving the correct units. …just my thoughts 😊
I read the Abbive Q2 2023 transcript and the VP CS continues to blame declining US Aesthetic sales on inflation…OMG. Yet, their international sales were up 10%…no inflation in the international market…🙄🙄🙄
No other US aesthetic company is struggling with inflation…only Allergan Aesthetics in the USA.
Hopefully, investors realize USA Allergan Aesthetic is simply losing market share to competitors…both toxin and fillers..Restylane is #1 in market share of fillers. Allergan is #2. And Allergan Aesthetics will continue to lose market share in both toxin and filler.
Soon Therapeutic Botox will start losing market share to Daxxify. Will Abbive blame that on inflation 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Looks like the Evolus Management Team knew the Botox numbers would be negative so they released their positive earnings today in an effort to head off selling of their stock.
The Evolus management team is on the ball..Revance???
Abbive released their 2023 Q2 earning today and all US aesthetic groups were done:
Botox down 6.5%
Juvederm down 14.5%
Other down 1.3%
The USA Aesthetic Market is growing by 12 to 14% per year! Which mean Botox was down over $20 million (-6.5%) plus the 12% growth of just existing accounts ( down $50 million in market growth). Which means $70 million went to competition….we could easily see $30 to $35 million in Daxxify sales in Q2.
Would be wonderful to have 100% truth behind your theory, but after having worked in the cosmetic injectable industry for 20 + yrs, one never knows which injectors are hyper diluting…in my 20 yrs, 20% of injectors hyper dilute and have done this for years. Patients never know!
Typically, injectors who hyper dilute their cosmetic toxin advertise on a low price and the patients who buy from them have limited funds..price is the #1 barrier. So these patients typically jump to another low priced injector..many are Groupon buyers. Sadly, you get what you pay for..these unhappy patients will write reviews and bash the product not knowing what is really going on.
Sadly, many doctors hyper dilute their cosmetic toxin to make more money and tell the patient one thing, and in reality are diluting very differently! The patient has NO way to check if the doctor is being honest. The cosmetic clinical trial was over 3,000 patients…if an injector uses the recommended double Botox units, ( 50 Botox to 100 Daxxify) which is the SAME amount of active ingredient, the patient will get double the duration they get from Botox.
This fact which will drive therapeutic sales very quickly since therapeutic doctors do NOT hype dilute and the outcomes will be identical to the clinical trial.
Revance Therapeutics Makes Waves in Biopharmaceutical Industry with Neuromodulator Development and Increased Investment
Elaine Mendonça by Elaine Mendonça June 28, 2023 in News Reading Time
Revance Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:RVNC), a biopharmaceutical company, is making waves in the industry with its development of neuromodulators for various therapeutic and aesthetic indications. Its drug candidate, DaxibotulinumtoxinA for injection, has completed phase III clinical trials for the treatment of glabellar lines and cervical dystonia and is currently undergoing phase II clinical trials to treat upper facial lines and dynamic forehead and lateral canthal lines. Recently, Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC increased its stake in Revance Therapeutics by 40.4% during the first quarter of this year. The firm now owns 1,537,250 shares or 1.83% worth $49,515,000 as of their latest filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
In related news, several insiders have sold a total of 160,745 shares with a value of $5,371,961 within the last ninety days. SVP Dwight Moxie sold 21,401 shares at an average price of $34.55 on May 15th while CEO Mark J. Foley sold 70,447 shares at the same price on the same day.
Revance Therapeutics aims to provide new treatments that offer patients improved efficacy over existing options that are well-tolerated and safe to use. With positive results from its clinical trials thus far combined with increased investment from major players in the industry such as Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC interested in having a larger stake in their success story – it’s clear that Revance Therapeutics is heading towards bigger things and could be poised for long-term growth.
Just being real, the Daxi cosmetic clinical trial was 3,000 plus patients with each injection being a 2 units of Daxi to 1 unit of Botox ratio. Injectors will hipper dilute using a 1.5 unit ratio and tell the patient they are getting a 2 to 1 ratio to make more money. Injectors are there to make $$…they would 100% rather be on their boat or driving their sports car or just laying on the beach. There is no way to check dilution from a patient view point. I have seen injectors dilute Botox with 4cc and tell the patient it is a 1 cc to 1 unit ratio! It is all about the $$$
Also remember, Daxi had its hands tied with a limited quantity of vials. Now, with the new approved fill and ship plant, reps can be more flexible with order quantities ????
RVNC will do amazing ??????
IMHO…Per Daxi slow roll sales:
-all of the Daxi product being shipped from December until now was manufactured, filled and finished at the Newark facility which is not designed to fill and finish…very limited capacity. There was and is a limited amount of product which could be shipped.
NOW with the FDA approved Ajinomoto Biopharma Services, Revance’s contract manufacturer for DAXXIFY®, there will be a huge amount of Daxi product available for practices to order. Would not be surprised to see Q2 Daxi sales of 30 to 40 million as Daxi product is now in inventory at the new plant to be shipped! This plant has been filling and finishing product since Daxi approval, but could not ship until the plant was approved. Q2 should finally be that big jump we have been waiting on!!!
A back order is the worst nightmare…hence the slow roll.
Allergan has always used the legal path to intimidate and blunt the sales of new competitors…Allergan filed a legal suite against Merz when Xeomin received approval due to Allergan reps taking customer lists. .
Sadly, the only doctors who are staying with Botox are the folks on their KOL payroll! Allergan pays many doctors thousands and thousands of dollars to speak at their trainings and conferences! This is 100% legal. Allergan should be required to disclose the thousands of dollars they are paying these PAID speakers. The speakers slides and talks tracks are edited and created by Allergan. It is 100% a legal scam.
Reps are leaving Allergan because they see the writing on the wall. Revance will take 30% or more market share in the next 2 years and working for the company taking market share always pays better than working for the company losing market share.
Galderma is also taking market share as Restylane is now #1 in filler market share. If you look at Allergan’s Q1 sales, they lost market share in every area…toxin, filler and other…the cash cow is getting the tied and old.
Revance Therapeutics, Inc. (RVNC) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: What to Know Ahead of Q1 Release
May 02, 2023 — 10:01 am EDT
Written by Zacks Equity Research for Zacks ->
The market expects Revance Therapeutics, Inc. (RVNC) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2023. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on theearnings call it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.75 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +20.2%.
Revenues are expected to be $45.46 million, up 80% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Revance Therapeutics, Inc.
For Revance Therapeutics, Inc.The Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +29.33%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.
So, this combination indicates that Revance Therapeutics, Inc. Will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Revance Therapeutics, Inc. Would post a loss of $1.04 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.82, delivering a surprise of -75%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Revance Therapeutics, Inc. Appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
I agree with both of your points.
And Abbive is saying they are seeing a sales slow down due to economic issues…they will never admit market share loss…
The same for RVNC, they will not admit manufacturing limitations…
MHO.